Oil thread 9-7-06:Former BP head of Pipeline invokes 5th

[rahvin]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Thank you sir :thumbsup:

Must be a fellow Rocket Scientist

Dave, explain to me how $4 = $5.

 

[3chordcharlie]

Originally posted by: rahvin

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Thank you sir :thumbsup:

Must be a fellow Rocket Scientist

Dave, explain to me how $4 = $5.

All you had was an estimate for refining costs, and no consideration of distribution costs.

Explain how $4 was a real number.

 

[Zebo]

Good lord I've never seen such alarm over nothing. It was much higher in 1800s, higher in the 40s, higher in the 70s at various times ajusted for inflation. When Iraq gets back on-line fully, and if Iran is allowed to produce nuke instead of buring it's oil it'll be like 1991 again when I dove a 460 CID 3/4 ton pick em up on a minimum wage salary and did'nt even care. Cheap cheap cheap.

 

[Engineer]

$70 per barrel with 42 gallons per barrel = $1.67 per gallon of crude. Out of the crude, you get basically 1/2gallon of gas and other products such as diesel, kerosine, sludge (road paving material), etc., so the cost of the half gallon of gas would be $0.84 with the remaining costs going into the diesel, kerosine, etc.. Add refining, taxes and delivery, you get 1 gallon at 2 x .84 = 1.68 + taxes and delivery. That sounds about right in the $2.50 range to me, unless I fvcked up and I do often!

It would seem that several here are assuming 100% cost of crude = 100% cost of gas when other products are derived from the gallon of crude that are sellable (diesel, etc).

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Engineer
$70 per barrel with 42 gallons per barrel = $1.67 per gallon of crude. Out of the crude, you get basically 1/2gallon of gas and other products such as diesel, kerosine, sludge (road paving material), etc., so the cost of the half gallon of gas would be $0.84 with the remaining costs going into the diesel, kerosine, etc.. Add refining, taxes and delivery, you get 1 gallon at 2 x .84 = 1.68 + taxes and delivery. That sounds about right in the $2.50 range to me, unless I fvcked up and I do often!

It would seem that several here are assuming 100% cost of crude = 100% cost of gas when other products are derived from the gallon of crude that are sellable (diesel, etc).

Also remember sour crude sells at discount to sweet crude(price being used for this calculation)

 

[laurenlex]

Originally posted by: Zebo
Good lord I've never seen such alarm over nothing. It was much higher in 1800s, higher in the 40s, higher in the 70s at various times ajusted for inflation. When Iraq gets back on-line fully, and if Iran is allowed to produce nuke instead of buring it's oil it'll be like 1991 again when I dove a 460 CID 3/4 ton pick em up on a minimum wage salary and did'nt even care. Cheap cheap cheap.

My good friend Zebo, may I indulge in what you are smoking?

We are at Peak Oil. Gas prices might flucuate, but will always creep higher and higher in price.

How Stuff Works: Gas Prices

Describes Peak Oil - Repost - Scary!!!!

1. Demand for oil skyrocketing. China. India. USA.
2. Oil production at / just before / past peak.
3. All cheap oil gone. Just expensive, hard to get oil left.
4. Depression, civil war, WW3 ??????
5. ???????????????/
6. No profit for anybody.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Engineer
$70 per barrel with 42 gallons per barrel = $1.67 per gallon of crude. Out of the crude, you get basically 1/2gallon of gas and other products such as diesel, kerosine, sludge (road paving material), etc., so the cost of the half gallon of gas would be $0.84 with the remaining costs going into the diesel, kerosine, etc.. Add refining, taxes and delivery, you get 1 gallon at 2 x .84 = 1.68 + taxes and delivery. That sounds about right in the $2.50 range to me, unless I fvcked up and I do often!

It would seem that several here are assuming 100% cost of crude = 100% cost of gas when other products are derived from the gallon of crude that are sellable (diesel, etc).

Also remember sour crude sells at discount to sweet crude(price being used for this calculation)

Isn't refining costs higher on sour crude?

Oh, and do my calculations sound about right or am I missing something?

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: rahvin

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Thank you sir :thumbsup:

Must be a fellow Rocket Scientist

Dave, explain to me how $4 = $5.

Ask Arnuld and the rest of the Kailfornians why they are always a $1 more.

When $3 here will be $4 Kali, when $4 here $5 in Kali, you get the idea.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: rahvin

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Thank you sir :thumbsup:

Must be a fellow Rocket Scientist

Dave, explain to me how $4 = $5.

Ask Arnuld and the rest of the Kailfornians why they are always a $1 more.

When $3 here will be $4 Kali, when $4 here $5 in Kali, you get the idea.

higher gas taxes?
stricter environmental regs?
more transport costs?

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: rahvin

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Thank you sir :thumbsup:

Must be a fellow Rocket Scientist

Dave, explain to me how $4 = $5.

Ask Arnuld and the rest of the Kailfornians why they are always a $1 more.

When $3 here will be $4 Kali, when $4 here $5 in Kali, you get the idea.

higher gas taxes?
stricter environmental regs?
more transport costs?

Don't know their Tax rate.
Formulations are Country wide now.
They have at least three big refineries over there.

Try again.

 

[rahvin]

Originally posted by: 3chordcharlie
All you had was an estimate for refining costs, and no consideration of distribution costs.

Explain how $4 was a real number.

Considering every byproduct of refining is saleable, some at extremely high prices it would be assine to assume that 100% of the cost of crude goes into gasoline so my extremely skewed estimate (no refinery is going to cost $.50 a gallon to refine) is the absolute WORST case. It would also be assine to say that $70/bar = $5 a gallon gas prices but that's just what Dave did and that's because he couldn't do such elementary math.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: rahvin

Originally posted by: 3chordcharlie
All you had was an estimate for refining costs, and no consideration of distribution costs.

Explain how $4 was a real number.

Considering every byproduct of refining is saleable, some at extremely high prices it would be assine to assume that 100% of the cost of crude goes into gasoline so my extremely skewed estimate (no refinery is going to cost $.50 a gallon to refine) is the absolute WORST case. It would also be assine to say that $70/bar = $5 a gallon gas prices but that's just what Dave did and that's because he couldn't do such elementary math.

Hello, $4 here $5 Kalifornia.

 

[Cruise51]

My money is on $80 a barrel by new years. Any bidders?

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Cruise51
My money is on $80 a barrel by new years. Any bidders?

We are going to see 40 again before we see 80...

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Cruise51
My money is on $80 a barrel by new years. Any bidders?

We are going to see 40 again before we see 80...

While I hope so, I have heard the same thing being said in the past year about seeing the 40's again before we see the 60's. Didn't quite work out that way.

Too much speculation caused by a fvcked up ME (caused by...suprise....the US sticking it's nose in places and stirring up a hornets nest) and pure greed by oil companies and traders.

time will tell.....and soon.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Cruise51
My money is on $80 a barrel by new years. Any bidders?

We are going to see 40 again before we see 80...

While I hope so, I have heard the same thing being said in the past year about seeing the 40's again before we see the 60's. Didn't quite work out that way.

Too much speculation caused by a fvcked up ME (caused by...suprise....the US sticking it's nose in places and stirring up a hornets nest) and pure greed by oil companies and traders.

time will tell.....and soon.

ANd it is speculation that isstill driving futures up. Middle east oil supply is basically uninterupted, but chinese demand has put pressure on the market.

 

[rahvin]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Hello, $4 here $5 Kalifornia.

Dave, where is it $5 a gallon? Oh wait, nowhere.

http://www.sandiegogasprices.com/

Mobil
899 Palomar Airport Rd & Paseo del Norte
$2.99/gal.

Here's a hint Dave, get a 8 year old to help you with your math next time.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: rahvin

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Hello, $4 here $5 Kalifornia.

Dave, where is it $5 a gallon? Oh wait, nowhere.

http://www.sandiegogasprices.com/

Mobil
899 Palomar Airport Rd & Paseo del Norte
$2.99/gal.

Here's a hint Dave, get a 8 year old to help you with your math next time.

But you need reading skills, I didn't say Kalifornia was at $5 now, I said by Christmas.

 

[rahvin]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
But you need reading skills, I didn't say Kalifornia was at $5 now, I said by Christmas.

But, but, but I didn't say what I did! :roll:

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Gas should be $5 gallon at $70.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Cruise51
My money is on $80 a barrel by new years. Any bidders?

We are going to see 40 again before we see 80...

While I hope so, I have heard the same thing being said in the past year about seeing the 40's again before we see the 60's. Didn't quite work out that way.

Too much speculation caused by a fvcked up ME (caused by...suprise....the US sticking it's nose in places and stirring up a hornets nest) and pure greed by oil companies and traders.

time will tell.....and soon.

ANd it is speculation that isstill driving futures up. Middle east oil supply is basically uninterupted, but chinese demand has put pressure on the market.

There was an article showing Gas stations that ran out of gas in Kakarta, can anyone find that link?

8-11-2005 OPEC Member Indonesia Becomes Net Oil Importer: Minister

Indonesia has become a net crude oil importer as domestic demand has surpassed oil production, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Abu Rizal Bakrie stated here Tuesday.

"Yes we were a net crude oil exporter in the past but now we become a net crude oil importer," he told reporters here.

Oil production in Indonesia, member of oil cartel OPEC, now stands at up to 1.06 million barrels per day while domestic demand reaches 1.1 million barrels per day.

The company has delayed the shutdown of the refinery from early July, due to a fuel shortage in Indonesia.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

The price of gas is not the problem so much as a symptom.

Oil production CANNOT keep pace with world demand no matter what one does for conservation or no matter how many holes are dug in Alaska.

If we do not get serious NOW about alternatives to oil we will be unprepared for 20 dollar a gallon prices, and I see no reason why that cannot happen.

Of course the "free market" could pull a rabbit out of a hat at the last minute, and I could also put on my robe and wizard hat and do the same.

There needs to be massive commitment to this problem now on the order of the space race. If the money that went to this dumb ass war were spent prudently over the next few decades in R&D we could very well have an answer.

That isn't going to happen though. People are idiots.

 

[Cruise51]

Ask yourself this question... Gas prices have pretty much doubled in the past five years. Have supplies been cut in half in the past five years? Did half the worlds oil somehow vanish? Do we have half the refining capacity? One word tells why prices have doubled - Profit.

 

[Cruise51]

Originally posted by: Hayabusa Rider
The price of gas is not the problem so much as a symptom.

Oil production CANNOT keep pace with world demand no matter what one does for conservation or no matter how many holes are dug in Alaska.

If we do not get serious NOW about alternatives to oil we will be unprepared for 20 dollar a gallon prices, and I see no reason why that cannot happen.

Of course the "free market" could pull a rabbit out of a hat at the last minute, and I could also put on my robe and wizard hat and do the same.

There needs to be massive commitment to this problem now on the order of the space race. If the money that went to this dumb ass war were spent prudently over the next few decades in R&D we could very well have an answer.

That isn't going to happen though. People are idiots.

They will milk this titty as long as they can. Why prepare when your making billions doing the opposite.

 

[rahvin]

Originally posted by: Cruise51
Ask yourself this question... Gas prices have pretty much doubled in the past five years. Have supplies been cut in half in the past five years? Did half the worlds oil somehow vanish? Do we have half the refining capacity? One word tells why prices have doubled - Profit.

Apparently you have never seen a supply demand curve. Lets be rather simple about it, if demand exceeds supply price increase is exponential. But don't let me interfere with your conspiracy theory, I'm not after your tinfoil hat.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: rahvin

Originally posted by: Cruise51
Ask yourself this question... Gas prices have pretty much doubled in the past five years. Have supplies been cut in half in the past five years? Did half the worlds oil somehow vanish? Do we have half the refining capacity? One word tells why prices have doubled - Profit.

Apparently you have never seen a supply demand curve.

Lets be rather simple about it, if demand exceeds supply price increase is exponential. But don't let me interfere with your conspiracy theory, I'm not after your tinfoil hat.

Really, that long wait at all the Gas stations out of gas must a real drag for you.