Official Trump second term prediction thread

[hal2kilo]

It feels like a "nothing" in comparison to Republicans, but it was still good to stand up for what is right. We shouldn't accept egregious behavior because someone is "on our side". Otherwise, you're sending signals to all non-public men that these kinds of things are in the realm of acceptable behavior.

Yes, but I 'm tiring of the asymmetric political warfare. Things have to change, but it surprises me that people think going further left is the answer. Fighting lies is the answer.

 

[Brainonska511]

Yes, but I 'm tiring of the asymmetric political warfare. Things have to change, but it surprises me that people think going further left is the answer. Fighting lies is the answer.

Yes. The big thing is for Democrats to just have spines and fight. Even if you lose, fighting still makes you look good.

I don't think "going further left" is going to move much of the needle: turns out voters give 0 fucks about policy. It's all about the puppet show and performing for the audience (the voters).

 

[nOOky]

If the past years have been any prediction of future events, there is no way anyone will be able to deprogram all of the MAGA cult members. One way I think the Democrats can win is to promise the things they think they want, then completely do what's actually right when they get in office. Get 2-4 years of total control and pass the important stuff fast and be done with it. The Democrats problem is they don't take the other side seriously enough, they do what they want to do and fuck the consequences, the Democrats tip toe around everything, afraid of offending someone.

 

[Saylick]

I've seen 5 yr. old little girls put on a more threatening face than that. That pic makes me laugh. But then I already knew Trump is such a coward and a fraud who likes to act tough in order to hide his true mama's little brat nature. He sure fooled a lot of people into believing that life long polished act of his though.

He's a girly man that would never ever put himself in front of a threat to someone else. He's the kind of guy that would throw someone else on a grenade that's about to go off at his feet rather than dive on it himself. He's the kind of guy that would talk shit while he's hiding behind someone else, pushing that human shield of his in front of him to take the hits from his trash talk.

He is literally the worst person to have next to you on the front line when some real shit is about to go down. My personal experience with guys just like Trump is why I so despise him and his ilk.

Yeah, he’s all show and no go. I’m surprised more people don’t see that, but it reiterates the adage that Trump is a weak man’s idea of a strong man, a poor man’s idea of a rich man, and a dumb man’s idea of a smart man.

Examples:
1) Trump likely knows more about make-up than the average man.
2) Trump said he would've ran into the school to save the kids, which is patently a lie.
3) He's not exactly a successful businessman, as evidenced by his bankrupting of his casino business, an industry whose entire business model is legalized giving the customer less money than they put in.
4) Trump literally is ignorant on a ton of issues. One his former professors at Wharton School of Business said Trump was literally the *dumbest* goddamn student he ever had.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Was watching the local news and they were talking about scammers threatening to deport people. The news said the police cannot ask you to show papers and all I could think is well wait a month.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Yes. The big thing is for Democrats to just have spines and fight. Even if you lose, fighting still makes you look good.

I don't think "going further left" is going to move much of the needle: turns out voters give 0 fucks about policy. It's all about the puppet show and performing for the audience (the voters).

Yes keep sliding right that has been so successful that they lost to Bush twice, lost to Trump twice, and have only won this century (1) when coming off the worst recession in 70 years (2) when coming off the worst public health crisis in 100 years with 1+ million dead and (3) when the GOP ran on outright ending Medicare. Let's keep doing the same shit that keeps failing, we're right it's just the voters are stupid. They have never had it so good, what a bunch of retards.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Yes, but I 'm tiring of the asymmetric political warfare. Things have to change, but it surprises me that people think going further left is the answer. Fighting lies is the answer.

Why does it surprise you? Trump keeps getting voted in because he sells himself as a hand grenade to the corrupt system. Could have had an actual nuke to the system in Sanders but then the DNC called him unelectable and got their mouthpieces in the media to beat that same drum relentlessly too.

 

[Brainonska511]

Yes keep sliding right that has been so successful that they lost to Bush twice, lost to Trump twice, and have only won this century (1) when coming off the worst recession in 70 years (2) when coming off the worst public health crisis in 100 years with 1+ million dead and (3) when the GOP ran on outright ending Medicare. Let's keep doing the same shit that keeps failing, we're right it's just the voters are stupid. They have never had it so good, what a bunch of retards.

Yes, invent a straw man position to be mad at.

 

[fskimospy]

Yeah, he’s all show and no go. I’m surprised more people don’t see that, but it reiterates the adage that Trump is a weak man’s idea of a strong man, a poor man’s idea of a rich man, and a dumb man’s idea of a smart man.

Examples:
1) Trump likely knows more about make-up than the average man.
2) Trump said he would've ran into the school to save the kids, which is patently a lie.
3) He's not exactly a successful businessman, as evidenced by his bankrupting of his casino business, an industry whose entire business model is legalized giving the customer less money than they put in.
4) Trump literally is ignorant on a ton of issues. One his former professors at Wharton School of Business said Trump was literally the *dumbest* goddamn student he ever had.

Trump knows more about makeup.

Counterpoint:

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Yes, invent a straw man position to be mad at.

LOL you think Americans give zero fucks about policy because they aren't motivated to show up and vote for status quo neoliberals and you repeatedly talk about how amazing this economy is and how it's the best we have ever had it.

 

[Brainonska511]

LOL you think Americans give zero fucks about policy because they aren't motivated to show up and vote for status quo neoliberals and you repeatedly talk about how amazing this economy is and how it's the best we have ever had it.

Yes, the economy is the best it's been in many people's lifetimes: wages up over inflation, especially for the lowest quintile; inflation has largely abated for the last year; unemployment at record lows. There are certainly places it could be better, and I don't doubt that some people have fallen through the cracks. However, those ideas are not incompatible with one another.

Collectively, the country has gone insane with shitposters and doomposters griping about "the economy" in ways that are completely incompatible with objective reality. A lot of people have simply cooked their brains by constantly being tapped into the social rage machine and being unable to think. I'm sorry that you've completely cooked your brain.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Yes, the economy is the best it's been in many people's lifetimes: wages up over inflation, especially for the lowest quintile; inflation has largely abated for the last year; unemployment at record lows. There are certainly places it could be better, and I don't doubt that some people have fallen through the cracks. However, those ideas are not incompatible with one another.

Collectively, the country has gone insane with shitposters and doomposters griping about "the economy" in ways that are completely incompatible with objective reality. A lot of people have simply cooked their brains by constantly being tapped into the social rage machine and being unable to think. I'm sorry that you've completely cooked your brain.

Moron who thinks Democrats lose just because people are stupid and don't care about policy accusing someone else of having a cooked brain. LOL taking offense and calling it a strawman when I write greatest economy ever and then posting greatest economy ever.

 

[Brainonska511]

Moron who thinks Democrats lose just because people are stupid accusing someone else of having a cooked brain. LOL taking offense and calling it a strawman when I write greatest economy ever and then posting greatest economy ever.

The median voter is stupid and fickle. Voters don't hold consistent ideologies for the most part. They are all over the road.

As for "the economy is bad" line that everyone has repeated verbatim over the last 2 years, or why "Biden is bad" - where are people getting these lines from? Their not doing any real analysis. They're picking it up from their friends or wider social circles (especially the ones that are feeding straight to their eyeballs for hours and hours per day, where rage bait gets rewarded with eyeballs). Humans are attuned to integrating with their social circles, and tend to pick up messages they are seeing from their "friends" and friends. (TLDR: they're picking up the vibes)

Democrats haven't done a great job working in this asymmetric media environment. But some of their allies have also kind of sucked in this environment: publicly shitting all over your friends (as if they're the only ones with agency) all the time is a good tactic for sinking your own boat, especially when rage is the thing that tends to go viral and foster the bad vibes.

---
A good example of mass delusions as of late: look at recent idiocy of mass panic around drones. A largely made-up phenomenon fed completely by social media.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

The median voter is stupid and fickle. Voters don't hold consistent ideologies for the most part. They are all over the road.

As for "the economy is bad" line that everyone has repeated verbatim over the last 2 years, or why "Biden is bad" - where are people getting these lines from? Their not doing any real analysis. They're picking it up from their friends or wider social circles (especially the ones that are feeding straight to their eyeballs for hours and hours per day, where rage bait gets rewarded with eyeballs). Humans are attuned to integrating with their social circles, and tend to pick up messages they are seeing from their "friends" and friends. (TLDR: they're picking up the vibes)

Democrats haven't done a great job working in this asymmetric media environment. But some of their allies have also kind of sucked in this environment: publicly shitting all over your friends (as if they're the only ones with agency) all the time is a good tactic for sinking your own boat, especially when rage is the thing that tends to go viral and foster the bad vibes.

---
A good example of mass delusions as of late: look at recent idiocy of mass panic around drones. A largely made-up phenomenon fed completely by social media.

It's mind boggling that you can think people are doing well economically when they voted American Hitler into power. When they can't afford homes. When they have to go into debt up to their eyeballs for the right to work something better than Door Dash or being a human robot in an Amazon warehouse. Home ownership is one of the most important things that made white Americans prosperous for decades and even they are getting fucked out of that now.

 

[Brainonska511]

It's mind boggling that you can think people are doing well economically when they voted American Hitler into power. When they can't afford homes. When they have to go into debt up to their eyeballs for the right to work something better than Door Dash or being a human robot in an Amazon warehouse. Home ownership is one of the most important things that made white Americans prosperous for decades and even they are getting fucked out of that now.

Rate of Homeownership Higher Than Before Pandemic in All Regions

Housing Vacancy Survey found homeownership rates, especially among those age 44 and younger, improved in all regions.

www.census.gov

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620 (percent of people working multiple jobs - looks pretty flat overall and a very small percentage)

What's that? I can't hear you over the sounds of how wrong you are about what is actually going on with the economy.

You're just cooking in the vibes!

 

[ivwshane]

Rate of Homeownership Higher Than Before Pandemic in All Regions

Housing Vacancy Survey found homeownership rates, especially among those age 44 and younger, improved in all regions.

www.census.gov

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620 (percent of people working multiple jobs - looks pretty flat overall and a very small percentage)

What's that? I can't hear you over the sounds of how wrong you are about what is actually going on with the economy.

You're just cooking in the vibes!

You think he’ll readjust his thinking? If he doesn’t then why would he think anyone else would when presented with facts? It’s not the economy, it’s not the messages, it’s the messengers and dems had a 100-3 disadvantage. Hell, even the pro democrat people have been spouting nothing but negativity for at least a year or two.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Rate of Homeownership Higher Than Before Pandemic in All Regions

Housing Vacancy Survey found homeownership rates, especially among those age 44 and younger, improved in all regions.

www.census.gov

And it's still below what it was 20 years ago before the great recession hit. Young people are getting fucked in this economy. Median first time homebuyer is late 30s, nearly pushing 40 now which is insane.

 

[ivwshane]

And it's still below what it was 20 years ago before the great recession hit. Young people are getting fucked in this economy. Median first time homebuyer is late 30s, nearly pushing 40 now which is insane.

You mean twenty years ago when mortgage rates were at record lows and mortgages were being handed out like candy? You mean before it all came crumbling down? Lol yeah let’s return to that! Let’s have the Dems run on a pro 2007 platform.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

You mean twenty years ago when mortgage rates were at record lows and mortgages were being handed out like candy? You mean before it all came crumbling down? Lol yeah let’s return to that! Let’s have the Dems run on a pro 2007 platform.

2025 - 20 = 2005

 

[SteveGrabowski]

You think he’ll readjust his thinking? If he doesn’t then why would he think anyone else would when presented with facts? It’s not the economy, it’s not the messages, it’s the messengers and dems had a 100-3 disadvantage. Hell, even the pro democrat people have been spouting nothing but negativity for at least a year or two.

Huh? The pro Democrat people here were convinced Kamala ran a great campaign and that they were going to beat Trump but durr she lost because she's a woman. A 100-3 disadvantage? Hearing liberals complain about the media is hilarious after the way the liberal media like MSNBC slandered Bernie Sanders, e.g. Chris Matthews going on TV and saying Bernie would have him executed if he won the presidency.

 

[ivwshane]

2025 - 20 = 2005

I don’t think I have a facepalm big enough for you. See if you can figure out what caused the 2008 financial crash.

 

[ivwshane]

You think he’ll readjust his thinking? If he doesn’t then why would he think anyone else would when presented with facts? It’s not the economy, it’s not the messages, it’s the messengers and dems had a 100-3 disadvantage. Hell, even the pro democrat people have been spouting nothing but negativity for at least a year or two.

Rate of Homeownership Higher Than Before Pandemic in All Regions

Housing Vacancy Survey found homeownership rates, especially among those age 44 and younger, improved in all regions.

www.census.gov

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620 (percent of people working multiple jobs - looks pretty flat overall and a very small percentage)

What's that? I can't hear you over the sounds of how wrong you are about what is actually going on with the economy.

You're just cooking in the vibes!

I rest my case.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

I don’t think I have a facepalm big enough for you. See if you can figure out what caused the 2008 financial crash.

Financial derivatives

 

[ivwshane]

Financial derivatives

And when did those start?

 

[SteveGrabowski]

And when did those start?

IIRC they got really big in the 90s when hedge funds erroneously thought you could hedge out risk in options markets by incorrect assumptions about stock prices being log normally distributed when in reality markets aren't rational and fat tailed distributions exist, but it made the math easy since under those assumptions you could hedge to reduce option value to a simple heat equation (e.g. as difficult as finding the way heat propagates through a uniform rod).