Official Trump second term prediction thread

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manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
13,263
4,042
136
From Industrial Revolution. We're at +1.5c and accelerating.

Actually I suggested Beryl would land as a cat5:


It actually made landfall on Grenada as a high cat4, hit cat5 after that, before finally weakening prior to hitting Texas. I'll note that I never said it was going to hit TX as a cat5, though that has more to do with the path the thing took than anything else. If it had veered north to LA/MI it would have absolutely fucked that coast up.

My point still stands, it was the earliest cat5 on record, the strongest we've seen before JUL, and multiple-record-breaking. We should be grateful that southern wind shears weakened it so that it only killed 73 people, instead of a few thousand.



Bad take man, relying on someone else to fix the problem but totes sure they will, will leave you and yours holding the bag, because you aren't planning to face any actual consequences.
+3c from the Industrial Revolution is not impossible.

Don't get me wrong; Beryl was indeed a monster. And you're right that it set records and is a bad omen for the future. But you said in the hurricanes thread it would hit Texas a Cat3, when none of the relevant models had that.

We're in broad agreement that climate change will fuck shit up in a lot of places. It's not a bad take at all; clearly modified human behavior is not going to save us in time. So it's either technology to bend the warming rate curve, or economic ruin and social chaos. Ultimately humanity can be pretty clever when it comes down to literal life and death.

Even if we rapidly electrified transportation (as Norway already has), that puts a dent in the problem but won't be sufficient. I just don't see any way out that doesn't involve a LOT of carbon sequestration. What I wrote is not particularly optimistic or confident that the problem will be solved, but merely mitigated.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
17,368
16,637
146
Don't get me wrong; Beryl was indeed a monster. And you're right that it set records and is a bad omen for the future. But you said in the hurricanes thread it would hit Texas a Cat3, when none of the relevant models had that.
I literally quoted my statement from that thread, I said it would probably make landfall on something as a cat5 and it very nearly did.
economic ruin and social chaos
That's the camp I'm in.
 

gothuevos

Diamond Member
Jul 28, 2010
3,440
2,397
136
The right simply assumes that political violence will be a one way street for them and them alone. History strongly suggests this as not the case.

The MAGA plan is to make a lot of people who don't agree with them desperate in a variety of ways because they have to be owned. You do not have to be able to see into the future to predict this could lead to adverse responses.

They are expecting it not outright hoping for violence from the left. Gives them plausible cover for Insurrection Act or any other heavy handed approaches they want to take.

If it wasn't over already, it will be extra over at that point. Sure there may still be random acts of violence from the left even after the government clamps down, but it won't change anything except further entrench the people already controlling government.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
13,263
4,042
136
I literally quoted my statement from that thread, I said it would probably make landfall on something as a cat5 and it very nearly did.

That's the camp I'm in.
Last I checked, Texas is not part of the Yucatan. You forgot an old post, it's okay:


Funny that we're somehow in the same camp when you gave me grief that I don't expect our policies and actions to save us from climate change in time; but perhaps technology will forestall a worst case scenario. That was all I was saying (mainly that we're past the point of hoping to come close to the Paris accords, we're fully in the mitigation phase from now on).

In some ways, it's a lot like staring into the barrel of Trump 2.0. Yes, we both think it's gonna fucken suck. Do we wallow in misery for the next four years? Or do we eventually regroup and fight again in 2026 and beyond?
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
17,368
16,637
146
Last I checked, Texas is not part of the Yucatan. You forgot an old post, it's okay:
Fair enough, missed that one.
Funny that we're somehow in the same camp when you gave me grief that I don't expect our policies and actions to save us from climate change in time; but perhaps technology will forestall a worst case scenario. That was all I was saying (mainly that we're past the point of hoping to come close to the Paris accords, we're fully in the mitigation phase from now on).

In some ways, it's a lot like staring into the barrel of Trump 2.0. Yes, we both think it's gonna fucken suck. Do we wallow in misery for the next four years? Or do we eventually regroup and fight again in 2026 and beyond?
What actions do you suggest either of us be taking to avert climate change?
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
13,263
4,042
136
Fair enough, missed that one.

What actions do you suggest either of us be taking to avert climate change?
I honestly don't even know what you're arguing anymore. We both know that on an individual level, what you or I do doesn't matter unless we own a private jet.* To clarify, when I used the phrase "policies and actions," that implies on a national or global level. We know that's the scope of the problem.

Yet you castigated me earlier because I said people suck, so hopefully better technology can make a difference. If you're convinced social chaos and economic ruin is already baked into the 2050 pie, then there's really nothing to hope can change or talk about anyway.

* It's a lot like voting, one vote means zilch. But 77M votes for DJT means a felon has been reelected for POTUS. Collectively, human activity will determine the trajectory of climate change. Whether that's +2c up to +4c within a few decades, there is a difference. If we lose Greenland or a hunk of Antarctica, then all bets are off.

FWIW we are mostly in the same camp, albeit with different conclusions.
 
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IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
72,827
33,854
136
Trump just signed an EO to end another discriminatory DEI hiring policy at the FAA that never existed in the first place. Way to go, Donny! Mission accomplished!
 
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[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
17,368
16,637
146
I'll add a prediction: within a week the first US born citizen will be deported, and within a month Mexico will have to set up a refugee/support program to get US citizens back home.
 

NWRMidnight

Diamond Member
Jun 18, 2001
3,566
3,081
136
I'll add a prediction: within a week the first US born citizen will be deported, and within a month Mexico will have to set up a refugee/support program to get US citizens back home.
I hate to say it, but I suspect we will see violent confrontations with people killed within the first 30 days, not just illegal immigrants, but legal immigrants, US citizens, and other's who have done nothing wrong.
 
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HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
39,300
32,806
136
I passed this on to everyone I could. Feel free to follow suit. Fortunately, I have the Eagles to focus on to maintain my sanity
View attachment 115294
Congrats to all that refused to watch shitstains inauguration. We got a small victory
 
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RalphTheCow

Senior member
Sep 14, 2000
985
400
136
Fetterman will switch parties ...
What a huge disappointment he is. Sometimes non maga is not quite enough. My effing congressman pulled the same shit, Jeff van Drew. Started as a “Democrat” before instantly going full MAGA. I sure hope I live to see the day he gets tossed out on his ass. The mid term backlash in 2026 would be a great time to see it happen.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
13,732
11,351
136
What a huge disappointment he is. Sometimes non maga is not quite enough. My effing congressman pulled the same shit, Jeff van Drew. Started as a “Democrat” before instantly going full MAGA. I sure hope I live to see the day he gets tossed out on his ass. The mid term backlash in 2026 would be a great time to see it happen.

I can commiserate. My former governor is Jim Justice. Or, as I refer to him, Boss Hogg.
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
33,510
17,005
136
What a huge disappointment he is. Sometimes non maga is not quite enough. My effing congressman pulled the same shit, Jeff van Drew. Started as a “Democrat” before instantly going full MAGA. I sure hope I live to see the day he gets tossed out on his ass. The mid term backlash in 2026 would be a great time to see it happen.

This seems to be happening a lot and is a failure of the DNC and their ability to properly vet candidates.
 

nakedfrog

No Lifer
Apr 3, 2001
62,734
18,904
136
Idaho is baking up a case they'll be using to try and tear down gay marriage, so that's fun.
 

RalphTheCow

Senior member
Sep 14, 2000
985
400
136
This seems to be happening a lot and is a failure of the DNC and their ability to properly vet candidates.
Van Drew was supposedly a Democrat for 30 years or so at the state level. It was a very odd thing. A little like RFK Jr I suppose.