Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

[Indus]

Made some nice coin on SNTI.

I was curious and saw this..



From 100 to 5.. sheesh

did you short it?

 

[Indus]

It's over 15 years old now. It's "crashed" and been declared dead over a hundred times. It's in use all over the world. It's now being held by several countries as a reserve asset.

Just a fad.

Well thing is.. it's value is not universal.. it's a vanity project.

Basically it's like buying a painting. It might be worth $100 for one person and $100,000,000 to another but it's no fixed value to everyone.

However a $100 is $100 everywhere on this planet.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1865199798866837827

I'm a buyer at 100 a coin. 😀

Did you get in at 100?

 

[dasherHampton]

Welcome back Asana.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I was curious and saw this..

View attachment 112773

From 100 to 5.. sheesh

did you short it?

It was just a one day trade, not an investment. Bought around 8, sold at 13 the same day on news of a favorable phase 1 update. Only 100 shares because of the high risk. When I bought it, it was already up pretty big, but sometimes momentum can carry a stock to the next fib level, which would have been 13 or even 18. The stock did hit 17 that day, but I hesitated and sold at 13.

Biotechs are long shots plain and simple. Most of them usually have no products for sale and therefore rely on continual dilution of shareholders to fund ongoing drug trails.

Senti has an interesting approach to drug development (from their website):

Senti Bio is a clinical-stage company founded to create a new generation of smarter medicines for patients living with incurable diseases. To achieve this, we use synthetic biology to design and optimize proprietary Gene Circuits. Senti Bio’s Gene Circuits are created from novel combinations of DNA sequences to reprogram cells with biological logic to sense inputs, compute decisions and respond to their cellular environments.

While there is no guarantee this approach will be successful in whatever they are trying to treat, their initial phase 1 recently yield positive results. This is not uncommon however in early stages. There are different stages of drug development, but in a nutshell:

Preclincal / Patent stage - unlimited years. Preclinical results show promise, raise cash and devise studies with funds available.

Studies stage:

Phase 1, 1a, 1b, etc, results released. If good, raise more money if you need it and proceed. Roughly 1-2 years or more
Phase 2, 2a, etc, results released. If good, raise more money if you need it and proceed. Roughly 1-2 years or more
Phase 3, 3a, etc, results released. Roughly 1-2 years or more. If good, apply for New Drug Application with FDA and get ready for review.

If the drug fails any stage along the way, its game over. This sometimes means bankruptcy.


Once the NDA is filed after a successful phase 3 testing, an FDA panel reviews all data and votes on approval or rejection. The FDA panel's recommendation is sometimes followed and sometimes ignored by the FDA. A panel vote has a very big impact on the stock, second only to FDA full approval.

FDA approves or rejects drug. If rejected, stock goes to zero or near zero based on cash on hand.


Final stage / Product stage:

If approved Phase 4, raise more money if you need it, find a manufacturer (if you need one) and prepare the drug for sale.

Now, after billions raised and massive dilution to original shareholders, you FINALLY have a product that will HOPEFULLY generate enough revenue to cover costs for more trials for other uses of your drug.

In Phase 4, the FDA, doctors and patients monitor for additional safety risks not initially revealed and the drug could be pulled if something comes up that harms people. If a drug is pulled, that could mean billions in damages to patients.

Most people avoid "science stocks" becuase of all the risks.

Senti is Phase 1. They have two other concepts that are not even that far. The market knows they are still early in development and will need to raise billions along the way, so the stock trades at a low market capitalization.

Best just to trade these.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Well thing is.. it's value is not universal.. it's a vanity project.

Basically it's like buying a painting. It might be worth $100 for one person and $100,000,000 to another but it's no fixed value to everyone.

However a $100 is $100 everywhere on this planet.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1865199798866837827

Did you get in at 100?

I would have, but Mt. Gox rejected my application and $200 deposit in 2011. They were hacked and bankrupt 6 months later. I breathed a sigh of relief.

 

[Indus]

I would have, but Mt. Gox rejected my application and $200 deposit in 2011. They were hacked and bankrupt 6 months later. I breathed a sigh of relief.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1866234154792219053

 

[FelixDeCat]

I think we hit QQQ 550 by YE

 

[FelixDeCat]

Bought LAES for 1.06. Cheap Quantum play.

 

[Charmonium]

If there's no use case, there's no value. And even use cases that superficially seem simple require vast amounts of infrastucture.

Take the one use case pretty much everyone can a agree on - cross boarder payments.

Int'l banks make out like banditos on currency conversions. So this is what you'd think is low hanging fruit.

But take my fave crypto XLM (cousin of XRP). You're a Philippino nurse working in the US. You want to send money home. How does that work?

First, buy however much XLM as you think you need. Alternatively, you can also just attach a fiat currency to an XLM token.

Next you need to do the conversion from USD. This requires very liquid FX markets on the XLM system. And remember, it's not just the US and Phillipines we're talking about. There are at least a couple dozen fiat currencies that would benefit from cheap transfers.

Those markets will be denominated in XLM and make currency pairs that are constantly traded.

Now you're almost home. Convert the XLM or the USD to the Real? Not sure. Send the fiat to the Phillipino bank or more likely, mobile phone account.

It's been a while since I've been involved in crypto on a regular basis so I probably made some mistakes here, but you get the idea. Specifically, you not only need the infrastructure to handle these sorts of trades, but the most popular currencies have to be regularly and frequently traded to have the necessary liquidity. So you're talking about tens of thousands of people and millions of transactions per day just to make the system work in an acceptable manner.

The thing I like about XLM over XRP is that it is completely decentralized. XRP is targeted directly at banks, so centralization isn't must of a stumbling block for them. But XLM is designed to function on a completely decentralized basis. So while XRP's central servers might decide to bend you over one day, XLM is about as bullet proof as you're going to find.

 

[JTsyo]

So what's driving Tesla's rise? Is it just because Musk is cozy with Trump? I sold some covered calls for $330 back in the summer for Dec20. It hasn't been executed yet but that person made a great move.

 

[dasherHampton]

At least they were covered. In my experience options rarely get exercised until they expire. It does happen every once in a while.

I had a fun experience with options a while back after selling calls on 1000 shares of POSH . One day I logged Iogged in and TD Ameritrade wanted me to deposit $278,000 dollars on a margin call. I was like WTF????

What happened was that POSH had gone private. My shares had been sold and my calls had become uncovered. I spent like four f#@kig hours on the phone with TDA before someone was able to fix it.

It still took the margin call like three days to go away.

 

[FelixDeCat]

So what's driving Tesla's rise? Is it just because Musk is cozy with Trump? I sold some covered calls for $330 back in the summer for Dec20. It hasn't been executed yet but that person made a great move.

That is the question of the year.

Like WTF is going on with Tesla other than momentum and nonsense (pretty much everything else these days). If the Fed would stop interfering with market discovery with those dumbassed, unnecessary rate cuts.

The Fed and its fiat money is the key to everything. Put them in check and watch everything "correct".

 

[FelixDeCat]

At least they were covered. In my experience options rarely get exercised until they expire. It does happen every once in a while.

I had a fun experience with options a while back after selling calls on 1000 shares of POSH . One day I logged Iogged in and TD Ameritrade wanted me to deposit $278,000 dollars on a margin call. I was like WTF????

What happened was that POSH had gone private. My shares had been sold and my calls had become uncovered. I spent like four f#@kig hours on the phone with TDA before someone was able to fix it.

It still took the margin call like three days to go away.

Yes, those 6 figure margin calls are definitely an eye opener. I got one back about 10 years ago for $100,000. Not bad for an account with only $5,000 in it.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Also, here is something for @Red Squirrel

 

[dasherHampton]

Yes, those 6 figure margin calls are definitely an eye opener. I got one back about 10 years ago for $100,000. Not bad for an account with only $5,000 in it.

Damn Felix. That's got be some kind of record.

I'm guessing you sold uncovered calls?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Damn Felix. That's got be some kind of record.

I'm guessing you sold uncovered calls?

I wrote a call spread on expiration day that expired worthless at the close. However because it went above the strike within 15 mins after hours, they assigned me 1,000 QQQ at 100.

My account was now negative $95,000 😱

That wasn't the only time I blew up an account with a bad spread.

Spreads are very dangerous if you make the wrong choices imo, so I usually avoid them.

 

[KB]

So what's driving Tesla's rise? Is it just because Musk is cozy with Trump? I sold some covered calls for $330 back in the summer for Dec20. It hasn't been executed yet but that person made a great move.

Tesla is actually increasing the number of cars it makes and sells and doing a fairly good job of it. The big rise comes from the fact that he is cozy with trump and will likely get trump to make policies that benefit Tesla, like cancelling rebates for other electric vehicles, adding tariffs etc.

 

[JTsyo]

At least they were covered. In my experience options rarely get exercised until they expire. It does happen every once in a while.

I had a fun experience with options a while back after selling calls on 1000 shares of POSH . One day I logged Iogged in and TD Ameritrade wanted me to deposit $278,000 dollars on a margin call. I was like WTF????

What happened was that POSH had gone private. My shares had been sold and my calls had become uncovered. I spent like four f#@kig hours on the phone with TDA before someone was able to fix it.

It still took the margin call like three days to go away.

Guess the options just keeps getting traded until someone with enough cash to actually execute it buys it.

 

[biostud]

22% YTD

23% YTD

 

[Charmonium]

So what's driving Tesla's rise? Is it just because Musk is cozy with Trump? I sold some covered calls for $330 back in the summer for Dec20. It hasn't been executed yet but that person made a great move.

Don't know.

Don't care.

 

[Charmonium]

Just remember this advice and you'll be fine.

The most successful investments the average person makes, are the ones they forget about.

 

[Indus]

Does anyone here like Schwab's website better than Fidelity?

Or Fidelity is the universally adored one here?

(not talking app on phone.. talking actual website)

 

[Red Squirrel]

Just remember this advice and you'll be fine.

The most successful investments the average person makes, are the ones they forget about.

I have RRSPs, around $60 or so comes out of my account each pay cheque that is more or less set and forget and that seems to in fact be my best performing investment. I used to put several hundred per pay into it at one point but can't quite afford that anymore so reduced it. It's all managed by the bank though I don't really do the investing. That account is sitting at like 50k. I didn't even realize it was that high until I recently checked. Book value is 36k so it's performing quite well.

Going to get taxed to oblivion when I take that cash out though so in reality it might be more like 25k or so.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Bought LAES for 1.06. Cheap Quantum play.

Sold 1.7, bought Wkey at 5.95. They own a 19% stake and launching anti quantum satellite device of some sort via SpaceX mid January. Mostly overvalued trade, so watch out.

Wkey and laes are quantum related and this where people are chasing.

 

[Charmonium]

I have RRSPs, around $60 or so comes out of my account each pay cheque that is more or less set and forget and that seems to in fact be my best performing investment. I used to put several hundred per pay into it at one point but can't quite afford that anymore so reduced it. It's all managed by the bank though I don't really do the investing. That account is sitting at like 50k. I didn't even realize it was that high until I recently checked. Book value is 36k so it's performing quite well.

Going to get taxed to oblivion when I take that cash out though so in reality it might be more like 25k or so.

Since you're in Canada, I'll assume that you have better control over your financial institutions than we do.

But while I stand my comment and the research that was its genesis, "best" is a very relative term. For example if you have 10 investments and 9 lose money, the one that didn't is your "best."

So things are a bit more complicated. Set and forget is a perfect strategy but going into it, you do need to do some checking.

For example, what sorts of fees do the financial institutions charge for their services. Most of my assets are in T Rowe Price. Those are actively managed funds so they have relatively high fees but they perform better that other assets.

I also have some money in Vanguard, which is completely passive investing but if you put 10k or more into a given fund, the fees charged are something like a tenth of a percent. In other words, there ARE other things that you need to consider before you forget.

I don't know if it's still true, but mom put some money into Prudential mutual funds that had fairly high fees. Over time, they did make money, but it was a very disappointing return.

So a) know the track record of the places you're going to put your money and make sure that they deserve it; b) know the fee structure you'll be paying and c) keep up with any notifications that they send you. If you don't understand something, find a fiduciary investment advisor and ask. Non-fiduciaries have their own interests before yours.