Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

[FelixDeCat]

Which is why Yellen regrets using the term. As I said above, it means different things to different people.

The 2% goal is odd because the historical average is roughly 3.4%. So, to set the goal below what is normal is a bit odd. The goal is not deflation because deflation often (but not always) totally destroys economies and then no one can afford anything. Think of the great depression or Japan's lost 3 decades.

Remember deflation means your wages eventually get CUT--that is the only way businesses can survive through long periods of deflation as year after year the business brings in less and less money. Your wages are cut either through firing you or through lowering your salary/hourly wage. Then think about paying back any debt you might have--after your income drops.

Deflation can never be a sane person's goal. Wage growth to catch up is a sane goal though.

Ill settle for transitory deflation.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Deflation would be better than continuing on this path of inflation. It's not sustainable for costs of everything to just keep going up with no relief in sight. Even if it's "only" 2%, it's 2% every year. It's cumulative. Over the course of 10 years that 2% compounds to quite a lot. The middle class is being driven to poverty.

What we need is to go back to like 1990 levels. Seems things were more sane back then and your money went further. You paid more for luxeries like electronics, but the regular ongoing costs of living like property taxes, hydro, gas, insurance, groceries etc were way cheaper. Yeah, you paid like 3 grand for a TV, but it's not like you buy a TV every year.

Even if employers were super generous and actually increased wages at no benefit to them this would only be possible for so long until they are forced to raise their product prices, which would just fuel inflation even further. What we need is at minimum, to stop inflation and bring it to 0. But a temporary deflation over the course of a decade or two to go back to sane levels would be best.

 

[Charmonium]

EV demand has been down, so the EPA will setting higher emissions standards for cars and light trucks. I'm holding on to my old Honda and will keep "rollin' coal". Haha

 

[Charmonium]

Side burn - took the buggy to inspection. They use the ODBC interface now. Big mistake. My car is a 2008 so the hamster that runs its computer is getting really tired.

 

[JTsyo]

Deflation would be better than continuing on this path of inflation. It's not sustainable for costs of everything to just keep going up with no relief in sight. Even if it's "only" 2%, it's 2% every year. It's cumulative. Over the course of 10 years that 2% compounds to quite a lot. The middle class is being driven to poverty.

What we need is to go back to like 1990 levels. Seems things were more sane back then and your money went further. You paid more for luxeries like electronics, but the regular ongoing costs of living like property taxes, hydro, gas, insurance, groceries etc were way cheaper. Yeah, you paid like 3 grand for a TV, but it's not like you buy a TV every year.

Even if employers were super generous and actually increased wages at no benefit to them this would only be possible for so long until they are forced to raise their product prices, which would just fuel inflation even further. What we need is at minimum, to stop inflation and bring it to 0. But a temporary deflation over the course of a decade or two to go back to sane levels would be best.

Deflation leads to stagnation since you expect you can buy more with your money later. It slows down the economy and can lead to recession. You want a small amount of inflation and wages to keep up with inflation.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Deflation leads to stagnation since you expect you can buy more with your money later. It slows down the economy and can lead to recession. You want a small amount of inflation and wages to keep up with inflation.

I always hear that argument, but the bills have to be paid either way, and that is the majority of people's spending now days because they are so high. So you can't wait until later to pay them, they have to be paid. But if they are lower, then it means more money left over to buy things that are not as necessary so in a way it actually would be better for the economy as people would have more spending money. If you want something and have the money for it, you'll buy it. A new game system comes out, it costs more now than later but if I want to play it now, I'll buy it now.

Automation, outsourcing, etc is making life easier for companies, so why can't we be the ones to see the savings from all that, instead of everything going up instead?

 

[dullard]

Automation, outsourcing, etc is making life easier for companies, so why can't we be the ones to see the savings from all that, instead of everything going up instead?

Most people are now seeing the savings from it. In the form of wages rising--rising faster than inflation. If wages rise faster than inflation, those gains add up. Even if it's "only" 0.5%, it's 0.5% every year. It's cumulative. Over the course of 10 years that 0.5% compounds to quite a lot.

We had a problem for decades where wages stagnated and that was a major problem. We were losing year after year. Your concern was correct. We were not being compensated for our additional productivity from automation. This was really a problem in the 1970s, through 1990s. Do you really want to go back to the 1990s when wages had sunk for 30 years?

Source: https://www.epi.org/publication/charting-wage-stagnation/

But now that has changed. Other than brief excusions in 2011 and 2022, wages have grown faster than inflation. Meaning every year we can afford to buy more and more and more stuff/services.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I'm calling for a quarter point rate hike on Wednesday.

Who's with me?

 

[Red Squirrel]

Even if wages did go up with inflation it's still bad, because it means you can't retire because you constantly need that stream of income just to make ends meet, with little to no room to save. Inflation basically nullifies any wage increase or promotion that you get. You need to keep working just so you can keep up with the bills. Imagine in 30 years from now if every bill that comes out is over 1 grand, but you are making 6 figures. You might be rolling in the dough but if your bills eat all of it up, you are not any better off than making minimum wage in the 90's, and can never retire. I was actually doing better 10 years ago even though I was making less money, because inflation wasn't as bad so my bills and overall costs of living were lower so I had more money left over at the end of the month. That's when I bought most of my server stuff and other nice things. Can't afford that anymore. Still running the same hardware. Pretty much anyone I talk to can say the same, they were doing better before. Now everybody is living pay cheque to pay cheque and everything is super tight.

But reality is wages don't go up with inflation. Most people are lucky to get 1-2% wage increase while inflation is always AT LEAST 2. And 2 is being conservative. In the past few years it's probably closer to 10. Price of things like fuel have been shooting up at a much higher rate than what they report. The official inflation rate doesn't really count everything.

 

[Dr. Detroit]

I'm calling for a quarter point rate hike on Wednesday.

Who's with me?

JPow will kick the can down the road...I think they shift from projecting 3 rate cuts to 2. Looking forward to the next dot plot analysis.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Even if wages did go up with inflation it's still bad, because it means you can't retire because you constantly need that stream of income just to make ends meet, with little to no room to save. Inflation basically nullifies any wage increase or promotion that you get. You need to keep working just so you can keep up with the bills. Imagine in 30 years from now if every bill that comes out is over 1 grand, but you are making 6 figures. You might be rolling in the dough but if your bills eat all of it up, you are not any better off than making minimum wage in the 90's, and can never retire. I was actually doing better 10 years ago even though I was making less money, because inflation wasn't as bad so my bills and overall costs of living were lower so I had more money left over at the end of the month. That's when I bought most of my server stuff and other nice things. Can't afford that anymore. Still running the same hardware. Pretty much anyone I talk to can say the same, they were doing better before. Now everybody is living pay cheque to pay cheque and everything is super tight.

But reality is wages don't go up with inflation. Most people are lucky to get 1-2% wage increase while inflation is always AT LEAST 2. And 2 is being conservative. In the past few years it's probably closer to 10. Price of things like fuel have been shooting up at a much higher rate than what they report. The official inflation rate doesn't really count everything.

Mega dittos, Red. I made squat in the 90s but at least I had real spending power.

Besides excessive government stimulus into the economy, there are new millionaires minted on the regular through lottery drawings, yolo option bets, an irrationally exuberant stock market, etc. Not to mention all the overpaid athletes and entertainers. And that's just the US.

Now bring in 9 billion hungry mouths to feed whose water demands are exceeding supply and they too have wants and needs....inflationary pressure to the extreme.

I remember when a $100M public project was considered big. Now the minimum for anything consequential cost $1B or more.

Where is all that money going? How big is the profit margin?

Look at the lawyers who sued Tesla and Musk over his pay package now asking a judge to award THEM the largest pay package in American history. A multi billion dollar pay day.

 

[Brainonska511]

Even if wages did go up with inflation it's still bad, because it means you can't retire because you constantly need that stream of income just to make ends meet, with little to no room to save. Inflation basically nullifies any wage increase or promotion that you get. You need to keep working just so you can keep up with the bills. Imagine in 30 years from now if every bill that comes out is over 1 grand, but you are making 6 figures. You might be rolling in the dough but if your bills eat all of it up, you are not any better off than making minimum wage in the 90's, and can never retire. I was actually doing better 10 years ago even though I was making less money, because inflation wasn't as bad so my bills and overall costs of living were lower so I had more money left over at the end of the month. That's when I bought most of my server stuff and other nice things. Can't afford that anymore. Still running the same hardware. Pretty much anyone I talk to can say the same, they were doing better before. Now everybody is living pay cheque to pay cheque and everything is super tight.

But reality is wages don't go up with inflation. Most people are lucky to get 1-2% wage increase while inflation is always AT LEAST 2. And 2 is being conservative. In the past few years it's probably closer to 10. Price of things like fuel have been shooting up at a much higher rate than what they report. The official inflation rate doesn't really count everything.

If your wages are rising faster than inflation, you should be having more money in your pocket at the end of the day. And your investments over time should also be beating inflation quite easily.

If you're making 6 figures and struggling to get by, you need to take a hard look at what you're spending money on, considering that even the lowest 6 figures are higher than median household income.


But I see we've ended with "data manipulation at the official level" and vibes, so maybe this just isn't worth a point by point rebuttal.

 

[Brainonska511]

I remember when a $100M public project was considered big. Now the minimum for anything consequential cost $1B or more.

1) When you put off work, it costs more to do it later
2) US costs are inflated relative to peer countries
3) Some of this is related to how we force additional, extraneous costs onto projects (ie, replacing road, you also need to replace a bunch of other tangentially related infrastructure as part of the project)
4) some of this is on excessively long permitting times
5) reliance on consultants and contractors because of the loss of state capacity (tax cuts and manpower cuts means no budget to keep in house experts
6) stop/start construction - we should move teams from one completed project to the next to prevent brain drain and having new teams constantly relearn lessons from old projects, instead of plan, mobilize, construct, demobilize, plan, mobilize...
7) some costs because of how some people insist that you cannot possibly impose a disruption on daily life for a big project (for example, building deep subway lines instead of using cut-and-cover techniques, or not allowing 24-hour construction)
8) and in some cases, union rules that mandate excessive amounts of people (ie, staffing for tunnel boring machines in the US vs Europe)

 

[dullard]

Even if wages did go up with inflation it's still bad, because it means you can't retire because you constantly need that stream of income just to make ends meet, with little to no room to save.

The key to retiring is having a house (which ideally happens near the retirement age). After the mortgage is paid off, your biggest part of the housing cost drops to $0 (principal + interest). That or have stocks. That is because stocks increase in value FAR more than inflation in most years.

Inflation basically nullifies any wage increase or promotion that you get. You need to keep working just so you can keep up with the bills.

Reread my posts. I keep saying that the key is to strive for wages that increase MORE than inflation. In that case, no inflation doesn't nullify wage increases. Think about it the reverse. Do you want wage increases? If so, that requires inflation so that your company has the money to pay you more.

Pretty much anyone I talk to can say the same, they were doing better before. Now everybody is living pay cheque to pay cheque and everything is super tight.

You are living in a area of the world that was badly hit economically. Your experience is real. But your experience (and that of your close friends/neighbors) is also far from normal.

But reality is wages don't go up with inflation. Most people are lucky to get 1-2% wage increase while inflation is always AT LEAST 2. And 2 is being conservative. In the past few years it's probably closer to 10.

If you look at my graph, you'd see what you just said is false. Wages have been increasing more than inflation in most years recently. Also the at least 2 is wrong, there was a long stretch where the Fed was driven crazy because they couldn't get inflation UP TO 2%.

Price of things like fuel have been shooting up at a much higher rate than what they report. The official inflation rate doesn't really count everything.

There are many official inflation rates. They are different for different types of people in different regions. Maybe you need to look at the inflation that isn't the headline number.

 

[Red Squirrel]

I'm not actually making 6 figures but my point was even if eventually I make 6 figures, but what is the point if all the bills are MUCH higher so it eats up all that money anyway? Inflation basically makes wage increases mean nothing because your money doesn't go as far. Also like I said, it also makes retirement harder. I would rather see costs of living go down, so that the money I make goes further, I can put some in savings and investments, and actually retire early. With the current system that's not really easy to do for most people.

 

[Charmonium]

I want to believe. . . .

That AMD will eat nvidia's lunch . . .

and dinner.

Don't own it but will consider if/when we have a retracement

 

[IronWing]

I want to believe. . . .

That AMD will eat nvidia's lunch . . .

and dinner.

Don't own it but will consider if/when we have a retracement

We all have dreams but this one is getting crushed like a cold cigarette butt on a subway track.

 

[Charmonium]

I don't normally buy individual stocks but I did pick up 2 whole lots of VPC - private credit ETF. Historical returns seem to be around 10 to 15%. So if we do get some rate cuts, whatever is in their portfolio will increase. But the plan is to hold it longterm and reinvest dividends.

 

[Charmonium]

We all have dreams but this one is getting crushed like a cold cigarette butt on a subway track.

Oh ye of little faith

 

[FelixDeCat]

I want to believe. . . .

That AMD will eat nvidia's lunch . . .

and dinner.

Don't own it but will consider if/when we have a retracement

The chip makers have been pulling back as of late.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Shorting...

NVDA...bloated 1999 dot com
TSLA...market saturation
XOM...because it's about damn time
MSFT...I still use Win 10
AAPL.. no AI
VKTX...worth billions and zero revs
MSTR...fat piggy 🐷

All covered 👌

 

[biostud]

All covered 👌

or invest in the stocks that are not hyped ATM

 

[repoman0]

All covered 👌

Bold and brave moves holding those short positions for … checks post history … five whole days.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Bold and brave moves holding those short positions for … checks post history … five whole days.

Unfortunately I'm not Bill Gates. I have to take what I can get.

 

[Brainonska511]

Unfortunately I'm not Bill Gates. I have to take what I can get.

Have you considered not gambling in the stock market then?