Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

[FelixDeCat]

Looks like some countries are raising interest rates. Turkey just went from 45% to 50% in a surprise move:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/turkey-hikes-key-rate-500-points-50-surprise-move-2024-03-21/

I mean, if 45% didn't solve inflation, then 50% should do the trick!

I would love to see a 50% prime rate in America.

So many bankruptcies. So much deadwood finally flushed from the system.

A 78% drop in the stock markets worldwide. The mother of all 🐻 markets..

 

[Brainonska511]

I would love to see a 50% prime rate in America.

So many bankruptcies. So much deadwood finally flushed from the system.

A 78% drop in the stock markets worldwide. The mother of all 🐻 markets..

You're a psychopath. "I wish I could inflict horrible misery on my fellow countrymen so I can buy stuff at firesale prices. Of course, nothing bad would happen to me in such an event."

 

[Charmonium]

I would love to see a 50% prime rate in America.

So many bankruptcies. So much deadwood finally flushed from the system.

A 78% drop in the stock markets worldwide. The mother of all 🐻 markets..

Aren't you just a ray of sunshine. Hahaha

 

[dullard]

A 78% drop in the stock markets worldwide. The mother of all 🐻 markets..

One problem: how would you know that you'll have any useable money at that point to buy anything in that bear market? I mean, cash would be useless and gold would be valueless as everyone else is trying to sell gold at the same time.

 

[FelixDeCat]

^^

You're guys are living in the Fed's la la land version of reality!

With profit there is a risk of loss, the greedy get punished and the overlevered go completely bankrupt.

Our economy is based on massive leverage - government leverage, private leverage, etc. And the Fed is expected to tip the scales in favor of debtors!! To place a "put" on the market through deliberate manipulation of the bond market, real interest rates and price discovery.

The Fed should NEVER be our friend. They need to be the police!

If it takes a 20%+ prime like it did in 1980 to tame the market, drive the real estate, bond market, gold and especially stock market speculators into bankruptcy....so be it!

Right now, our toothless cops are telling you when they are coming, telling you when they are leaving and tell you they will look the other way when prices are continuing to go up.

 

[Brainonska511]

Look at this clown thinking he won't end up in the poor house when his desired policies crash the ship.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

OK, so who did Reddit?

 

[Charmonium]

You're guys are living in the Fed's la la land version of reality!

When it comes to monetary policy, the Fed's version IS reality.

Hasn't anyone ever mentioned that money is a fiction - Well . . . as long as you keep your hands to yourself

 

[Red Squirrel]

I would love to see a 50% prime rate in America.

So many bankruptcies. So much deadwood finally flushed from the system.

A 78% drop in the stock markets worldwide. The mother of all 🐻 markets..

50% seems a little crazy but even something like 25% would be nice to see. There should be a real plan instead of just making it unpredictable and raising and lowering at random. Hike the rate by 1% every quarter until it hits 25%, hold it for like 10 years. Make this an announced plan with a set time line so everyone knows it's coming. It would give people and companies a chance to reduce debt and have some positive effects ahead of time as far as inflation goes too.

Not sure what it would mean for the national debt though... the government response to that could be bad. Ex: higher taxes.

 

[IronWing]

50% seems a little crazy but even something like 25% would be nice to see. There should be a real plan instead of just making it unpredictable and raising and lowering at random. Hike the rate by 1% every quarter until it hits 25%, hold it for like 10 years. Make this an announced plan with a set time line so everyone knows it's coming. It would give people and companies a chance to reduce debt and have some positive effects ahead of time as far as inflation goes too.

Not sure what it would mean for the national debt though... the government response to that could be bad. Ex: higher taxes.

You would starve to death within the first couple years.

 

[Charmonium]

You would starve to death within the first couple years.

For at least 90% of the population, myself included, I would go with being understated and consider that optimistic.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Inflation the way it's going will eventually lead us to starve too. There will come a time for many people where costs of living exceeds income. Then you have to make tough decisions like give up your house, or buy less groceries, or heat less, etc. I'm not doing as bad as some are since I make good money but I feel bad for anyone making a more average salary or who don't have a house yet. Definitely need dual income to make it now days unless you are pushing 6 figures and not a lot of jobs pay that. Even myself I've cut down a lot on as many costs as I can, such as eating only once a day, and letting the house temp drop very low when I'm not home.

I feel a revolt is coming though, even RCMP is warning about it.

Secret RCMP report warns Canadians may revolt once they realize how broke they are

The RCMP report authors warn that whatever Canada’s current situation, it "will probably deteriorate further in the next five years."

nationalpost.com

Next few years are going to be tense I think for both US and Canada.

 

[Charmonium]

Then you have to make tough decisions like give up your house, or buy less groceries, or heat less, etc. I'm not doing as bad as some are since I make good money but I feel bad for anyone making a more average salary or who don't have a house yet

Not to be uncharitable, but in most cases, finding oneself in dire straits is the primary result of a lack circumspection, foresight or both.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Not to be uncharitable, but in most cases, finding oneself in dire straits is the primary result of a lack circumspection, foresight or both.

If costs of living keep going up, no foresight is going to change that though. You could get a 2nd job but only so many places hiring and need to find something where the hours work out. I know people with like 3 jobs, there's not much else they can do. Companies don't pay good anymore. They are struggling from inflation too, their costs are all very high to operate. There's only so much cutting you can do.

 

[Brainonska511]

At least in the US, growth of wages has exceeded inflation, and few people work 2 jobs, let alone 3.

 

[Charmonium]

If costs of living keep going up, no foresight is going to change that though. You could get a 2nd job but only so many places hiring and need to find something where the hours work out. I know people with like 3 jobs, there's not much else they can do. Companies don't pay good anymore. They are struggling from inflation too, their costs are all very high to operate. There's only so much cutting you can do.

I don't know the trends have been like in western CA have been but regardless, that's why you've supposed to have six months of savings.

If you're living paycheck to paycheck, well, as a general rule, you'd have to call that a choice.

 

[Red Squirrel]

I don't know the trends have been like in western CA have been but regardless, that's why you've supposed to have six months of savings.

If you're living paycheck to paycheck, well, as a general rule, you'd have to call that a choice.

Not much room to save when costs keep going up though and even if you have savings eventually you'll have to dip into them when the costs of living increase past the money coming in.

Consider a battery being charged at a constant current rate, if you keep adding a bigger load to it, eventually the charger won't keep up and the battery will die. The battery, being your bank account.

Wages are NOT going up faster than REAL inflation (the actual costs, not the number they report). If you are lucky you get maybe 1-2%. We usually get 0.5 but the last union agreement we got lucky and got 2%. We are lucky to even get a raise at all, lot of workplaces are not giving any at all but there's also lot of years where we didn't get it either, but inflation still went up those years too. Inflation was recently announced as having gone down to 2.8%. And that's the number the government reports. We all know the actual costs of living are much higher than that.

 

[Dr. Detroit]

The probability of 3-rate cuts by EOY decreased significantly from 3-months ago. Every 3-months each of the 19 Fed Bankers provide guidance as part of its Summary of Economic Projections.

2 see 5.375% (no cuts), same as in Dec.
2 see 5.125% (1 cut), up from 1 in Dec.
5 see 4.875% (2 cuts), same as in Dec.
9 see 4.625% (3 cuts), up from 6 in dec. = median
1 see 4.375% (4 cuts) down from 4 in Dec.
0 see 5 or more cuts, down from 1 in Dec

So 9 see 2 cuts or less, 10 see 3 cuts or more !

 

[Brainonska511]

Not much room to save when costs keep going up though and even if you have savings eventually you'll have to dip into them when the costs of living increase past the money coming in.

Consider a battery being charged at a constant current rate, if you keep adding a bigger load to it, eventually the charger won't keep up and the battery will die. The battery, being your bank account.

Wages are NOT going up faster than REAL inflation (the actual costs, not the number they report). If you are lucky you get maybe 1-2%. We usually get 0.5 but the last union agreement we got lucky and got 2%. We are lucky to even get a raise at all, lot of workplaces are not giving any at all but there's also lot of years where we didn't get it either, but inflation still went up those years too. Inflation was recently announced as having gone down to 2.8%. And that's the number the government reports. We all know the actual costs of living are much higher than that.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770916875788079237

Wages are rising faster than inflation. But if you have some secret data that says otherwise, feel free to share with the class.

 

[FelixDeCat]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770916875788079237

Wages are rising faster than inflation. But if you have some secret data that says otherwise, feel free to share with the class.

You are speaking about society as a whole and he is relating personal experience. I can tell you that my wages have not kept up with inflation either.

My car insurance is up 40% over the last 3 years and my wages have not kept up.

Food prices are up 80% in 4 years and my wages have not kept up.

I have expressed my opinion that we need to tame inflation with higher interest rates, higher income taxes and government austerity. This opinion will not change.

Unfortunately I do not see either party willing to take the steps necessary to bring prices back to reasonable pre-Covid levels of 2020.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The Fed is going to slow down the runoff its multi-trillion dollar debt holdings:

Fed to slow the shrinking of its $7.5 trillion balance sheet 'fairly soon': Powell​

Fed to slow the shrinking of its $7.5 trillion balance sheet 'fairly soon': Powell

Fed Chair Jay Powell said Wednesday that central bank officials discussed a strategy for how to slow the shrinking of the Fed's balance sheet, a lesser-known policy tool it has been using to tighten financial conditions.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Charmonium]

You gotta slow down the "drain" before you can go back out and start slurping up assets again.

 

[Dr. Detroit]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770916875788079237

Wages are rising faster than inflation. But if you have some secret data that says otherwise, feel free to share with the class.

Here is the secret data that says otherwise:

Page 13 - Discussion - ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

Page 13 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

forums.anandtech.com

Blame the Fed’s inflation fighting for why Americans are miserable about the economy, according to Larry Summers (and a bunch of other top economists)​

https://www.npr.org/2024/02/28/1234554967/inflation-cost-of-living-economy-mortgages-auto-loans-larry-summers

"If the pre-1983 formula were still in use today, the CPI would have shown inflation climbing even higher in 2022 — to around 15% rather than 9.1% — and inflation would not have fallen as fast in 2023"

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

I've never worked two jobs. I've always had a house, savings and at least one car, usually two. I haven't worked at all since 2011. I still put about 50% of my income into savings. I can buy a few toys and gizmos when I need them.

It isn't what you get. It's how you manage it and what you spend.

 

[Red Squirrel]

How do you have income if you don't have a job and how are you covering all the bills like property taxes etc?