Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,233
2,074
126
Looks like some countries are raising interest rates. Turkey just went from 45% to 50% in a surprise move:

I mean, if 45% didn't solve inflation, then 50% should do the trick!
I would love to see a 50% prime rate in America.

So many bankruptcies. So much deadwood finally flushed from the system.

A 78% drop in the stock markets worldwide. The mother of all 🐻 markets..
 
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Dec 10, 2005
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I would love to see a 50% prime rate in America.

So many bankruptcies. So much deadwood finally flushed from the system.

A 78% drop in the stock markets worldwide. The mother of all 🐻 markets..
You're a psychopath. "I wish I could inflict horrible misery on my fellow countrymen so I can buy stuff at firesale prices. Of course, nothing bad would happen to me in such an event."
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,185
2,622
136
I would love to see a 50% prime rate in America.

So many bankruptcies. So much deadwood finally flushed from the system.

A 78% drop in the stock markets worldwide. The mother of all 🐻 markets..
Aren't you just a ray of sunshine. Hahaha
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,133
3,536
126
A 78% drop in the stock markets worldwide. The mother of all 🐻 markets..
One problem: how would you know that you'll have any useable money at that point to buy anything in that bear market? I mean, cash would be useless and gold would be valueless as everyone else is trying to sell gold at the same time.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,233
2,074
126
^^

You're guys are living in the Fed's la la land version of reality!

With profit there is a risk of loss, the greedy get punished and the overlevered go completely bankrupt.

Our economy is based on massive leverage - government leverage, private leverage, etc. And the Fed is expected to tip the scales in favor of debtors!! To place a "put" on the market through deliberate manipulation of the bond market, real interest rates and price discovery.

The Fed should NEVER be our friend. They need to be the police!

If it takes a 20%+ prime like it did in 1980 to tame the market, drive the real estate, bond market, gold and especially stock market speculators into bankruptcy....so be it!

Right now, our toothless cops are telling you when they are coming, telling you when they are leaving and tell you they will look the other way when prices are continuing to go up.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,185
2,622
136
You're guys are living in the Fed's la la land version of reality!
When it comes to monetary policy, the Fed's version IS reality.

Hasn't anyone ever mentioned that money is a fiction - Well . . . as long as you keep your hands to yourself:)
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,641
12,242
126
www.anyf.ca
I would love to see a 50% prime rate in America.

So many bankruptcies. So much deadwood finally flushed from the system.

A 78% drop in the stock markets worldwide. The mother of all 🐻 markets..

50% seems a little crazy but even something like 25% would be nice to see. There should be a real plan instead of just making it unpredictable and raising and lowering at random. Hike the rate by 1% every quarter until it hits 25%, hold it for like 10 years. Make this an announced plan with a set time line so everyone knows it's coming. It would give people and companies a chance to reduce debt and have some positive effects ahead of time as far as inflation goes too.

Not sure what it would mean for the national debt though... the government response to that could be bad. Ex: higher taxes.
 
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IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,252
27,315
136
50% seems a little crazy but even something like 25% would be nice to see. There should be a real plan instead of just making it unpredictable and raising and lowering at random. Hike the rate by 1% every quarter until it hits 25%, hold it for like 10 years. Make this an announced plan with a set time line so everyone knows it's coming. It would give people and companies a chance to reduce debt and have some positive effects ahead of time as far as inflation goes too.

Not sure what it would mean for the national debt though... the government response to that could be bad. Ex: higher taxes.
You would starve to death within the first couple years.
 
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Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,641
12,242
126
www.anyf.ca
Inflation the way it's going will eventually lead us to starve too. There will come a time for many people where costs of living exceeds income. Then you have to make tough decisions like give up your house, or buy less groceries, or heat less, etc. I'm not doing as bad as some are since I make good money but I feel bad for anyone making a more average salary or who don't have a house yet. Definitely need dual income to make it now days unless you are pushing 6 figures and not a lot of jobs pay that. Even myself I've cut down a lot on as many costs as I can, such as eating only once a day, and letting the house temp drop very low when I'm not home.

I feel a revolt is coming though, even RCMP is warning about it.


Next few years are going to be tense I think for both US and Canada.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,185
2,622
136
Then you have to make tough decisions like give up your house, or buy less groceries, or heat less, etc. I'm not doing as bad as some are since I make good money but I feel bad for anyone making a more average salary or who don't have a house yet
Not to be uncharitable, but in most cases, finding oneself in dire straits is the primary result of a lack circumspection, foresight or both.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,641
12,242
126
www.anyf.ca
Not to be uncharitable, but in most cases, finding oneself in dire straits is the primary result of a lack circumspection, foresight or both.

If costs of living keep going up, no foresight is going to change that though. You could get a 2nd job but only so many places hiring and need to find something where the hours work out. I know people with like 3 jobs, there's not much else they can do. Companies don't pay good anymore. They are struggling from inflation too, their costs are all very high to operate. There's only so much cutting you can do.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,185
2,622
136
If costs of living keep going up, no foresight is going to change that though. You could get a 2nd job but only so many places hiring and need to find something where the hours work out. I know people with like 3 jobs, there's not much else they can do. Companies don't pay good anymore. They are struggling from inflation too, their costs are all very high to operate. There's only so much cutting you can do.
I don't know the trends have been like in western CA have been but regardless, that's why you've supposed to have six months of savings.

If you're living paycheck to paycheck, well, as a general rule, you'd have to call that a choice.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,641
12,242
126
www.anyf.ca
I don't know the trends have been like in western CA have been but regardless, that's why you've supposed to have six months of savings.

If you're living paycheck to paycheck, well, as a general rule, you'd have to call that a choice.

Not much room to save when costs keep going up though and even if you have savings eventually you'll have to dip into them when the costs of living increase past the money coming in.

Consider a battery being charged at a constant current rate, if you keep adding a bigger load to it, eventually the charger won't keep up and the battery will die. The battery, being your bank account.

Wages are NOT going up faster than REAL inflation (the actual costs, not the number they report). If you are lucky you get maybe 1-2%. We usually get 0.5 but the last union agreement we got lucky and got 2%. We are lucky to even get a raise at all, lot of workplaces are not giving any at all but there's also lot of years where we didn't get it either, but inflation still went up those years too. Inflation was recently announced as having gone down to 2.8%. And that's the number the government reports. We all know the actual costs of living are much higher than that.
 

Dr. Detroit

Diamond Member
Sep 25, 2004
8,177
639
126
The probability of 3-rate cuts by EOY decreased significantly from 3-months ago. Every 3-months each of the 19 Fed Bankers provide guidance as part of its Summary of Economic Projections.

2 see 5.375% (no cuts), same as in Dec.
2 see 5.125% (1 cut), up from 1 in Dec.
5 see 4.875% (2 cuts), same as in Dec.
9 see 4.625% (3 cuts), up from 6 in dec. = median
1 see 4.375% (4 cuts) down from 4 in Dec.
0 see 5 or more cuts, down from 1 in Dec

So 9 see 2 cuts or less, 10 see 3 cuts or more !
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,215
7,051
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Not much room to save when costs keep going up though and even if you have savings eventually you'll have to dip into them when the costs of living increase past the money coming in.

Consider a battery being charged at a constant current rate, if you keep adding a bigger load to it, eventually the charger won't keep up and the battery will die. The battery, being your bank account.

Wages are NOT going up faster than REAL inflation (the actual costs, not the number they report). If you are lucky you get maybe 1-2%. We usually get 0.5 but the last union agreement we got lucky and got 2%. We are lucky to even get a raise at all, lot of workplaces are not giving any at all but there's also lot of years where we didn't get it either, but inflation still went up those years too. Inflation was recently announced as having gone down to 2.8%. And that's the number the government reports. We all know the actual costs of living are much higher than that.

Wages are rising faster than inflation. But if you have some secret data that says otherwise, feel free to share with the class.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,233
2,074
126

Wages are rising faster than inflation. But if you have some secret data that says otherwise, feel free to share with the class.

You are speaking about society as a whole and he is relating personal experience. I can tell you that my wages have not kept up with inflation either.

My car insurance is up 40% over the last 3 years and my wages have not kept up.

Food prices are up 80% in 4 years and my wages have not kept up.

I have expressed my opinion that we need to tame inflation with higher interest rates, higher income taxes and government austerity. This opinion will not change.

Unfortunately I do not see either party willing to take the steps necessary to bring prices back to reasonable pre-Covid levels of 2020.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,233
2,074
126
The Fed is going to slow down the runoff its multi-trillion dollar debt holdings:

Fed to slow the shrinking of its $7.5 trillion balance sheet 'fairly soon': Powell​


 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,185
2,622
136
You gotta slow down the "drain" before you can go back out and start slurping up assets again.
 

Dr. Detroit

Diamond Member
Sep 25, 2004
8,177
639
126

Wages are rising faster than inflation. But if you have some secret data that says otherwise, feel free to share with the class.

Here is the secret data that says otherwise:

Blame the Fed’s inflation fighting for why Americans are miserable about the economy, according to Larry Summers (and a bunch of other top economists)


https://www.npr.org/2024/02/28/1234554967/inflation-cost-of-living-economy-mortgages-auto-loans-larry-summers

"If the pre-1983 formula were still in use today, the CPI would have shown inflation climbing even higher in 2022 — to around 15% rather than 9.1% — and inflation would not have fallen as fast in 2023"
 
Nov 17, 2019
11,060
6,612
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I've never worked two jobs. I've always had a house, savings and at least one car, usually two. I haven't worked at all since 2011. I still put about 50% of my income into savings. I can buy a few toys and gizmos when I need them.

It isn't what you get. It's how you manage it and what you spend.