Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

[IronWing]

A total rate cut of 1.5% this year would be irresponsible. If the market makers really thought that, they were not being realistic. The Feds' days of blowing bubbles are over for a bit.

 

[Charmonium]

Yeah, that was definitely the consensus - 1.5% seemed overly optimistic.

That's not to say it can't happen. But I think that once we get Ukraine and Israel funding through, there's going to tens of billions of government spending going into the economy. So they may need to slurp up some liquidity.

 

[dullard]

Yeah, that was definitely the consensus - 1.5% seemed overly optimistic.

I can't see how anyone would actually predict that much of a drop. The fed itself said up to 3 cuts (0.75%) could be possible but it is too soon to talk about it because the data points the other direction. Anyone that gets 6 cuts from that message is just delusional. Especially in an election year when the fed tries not to make many rate changes.

 

[jpiniero]

I can't see how anyone would actually predict that much of a drop.

I can. We are going back to zero. The US Govt can't afford otherwise. A few cuts might ease the pain a bit.

 

[AdamK47]

I wish there was a market drop. I have the entirety of my yearly bonus I'd like to average in.

 

[biostud]

Well, my portfolio is at an all-time high.

 

[dullard]

I can. We are going back to zero. The US Govt can't afford otherwise. A few cuts might ease the pain a bit.

Two totally separate groups. The fed is independent from the US government. Even if the US government needs something, the fed doesn't care.

 

[Brainonska511]

I wish there was a market drop. I have the entirety of my yearly bonus I'd like to average in.

I had some money I received last year from a relative who passed, and I've just been doing automatic investments from my settlement fund every 2 weeks. I figured with the 5+% the settlement fund is making, it wasn't such a big deal to do some mild dollar cost averaging.

Depending on your time horizon, you'd probably be fine just investing it all at once. Yes, it would stink if there is a short term drop, but you also get access to dividends that would be paying out once you start investing it.

 

[dullard]

Depending on your time horizon, you'd probably be fine just investing it all at once. Yes, it would stink if there is a short term drop, but you also get access to dividends that would be paying out once you start investing it.

Dollar cost averaging is a nice tool, but it certainly isn't a universal win. Since stocks tend to go up, the best route is almost always to invest as soon as you have money. That is the exact opposite of dollar cost averaging.

That said, with stock markets currently at or above their all time highs (as I type this the S&P 500 just crossed higher than it's all time highest closing price), investing it all now just seems difficult to swallow. So, there is nothing wrong with diversifying the strategy. Invest about half now into stocks. Put the rest into 5% short term CDs or liquid funds which are paying ~5%. Then dollar cost the rest in. You won't get the mathematically best possible outcome. But that requires a fully functioning crystal ball.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Bought 1000 shares SAVE at 6.50, sold today's 7.50 call for $220.

Up $500 so far. 😀

 

[dullard]

Bought 1000 shares SAVE at 6.50, sold today's 7.50 call for $220.

Up $500 so far. 😀

Great job.

I've been toying with the idea of SAVE. It is down 66% in a year and currently at half the valuation of just liquidating it. Meaning if they just liquidated now, you'd double your money (minus expenses). But, I'm worried that they'll drag out the losses until there is nothing left worth liquidating.

Short term gamble opporunity only.

 

[IronWing]

I received a modest inheritance last year in the form of a bond fund. I get to file f8949 and Schedule D to show a 19¢ loss. Yeah me. The instructions for Schedule D are epic.

 

[dullard]

I received a modest inheritance last year in the form of a bond fund. I get to file f8949 and Schedule D to show a 19¢ loss. Yeah me. The instructions for Schedule D are epic.

Yeah, took me a while to make an Excel sheet to cover Schedule D. But now, I just check that the form hasn't changed and go with that. Just a few minutes of work a year now.

Schedule D and the AMT were the annoying Excel sheets to make. Especially since the AMT sheet just spits out not to file AMT in my case.

 

[AdamK47]

Dollar cost averaging is a nice tool, but it certainly isn't a universal win. Since stocks tend to go up, the best route is almost always to invest as soon as you have money. That is the exact opposite of dollar cost averaging.

That said, with stock markets currently at or above their all time highs (as I type this the S&P 500 just crossed higher than it's all time highest closing price), investing it all now just seems difficult to swallow. So, there is nothing wrong with diversifying the strategy. Invest about half now into stocks. Put the rest into 5% short term CDs or liquid funds which are paying ~5%. Then dollar cost the rest in. You won't get the mathematically best possible outcome. But that requires a fully functioning crystal ball.

It worked well for me in Sept. when I had over $200K to average in. Averaged it in over September, October, and November.

 

[dullard]

New S&P 500 intraday all time high reached. And no real signs of stopping any time soon. My prediction for a January selloff was wrong.

 

[Artorias]

Is there any stopping the Nvidia train?

 

[AdamK47]

It was reported that Meta was actively buying 350,000 H100 GPUs. nVidia sells each one at about $25K to $30K.

 

[dullard]

It was reported that Meta was actively buying 350,000 H100 GPUs. nVidia sells each one at about $25K to $30K.

That is ~$9 billion if there was no discount. NVDA valuation is going up ~$48 billion today. Not even remotely sufficient of an order to justify that bump in stock price.

 

[AdamK47]

It has been a long time since NVDA stock price was tied to fundamentals.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Also bought IRBT at 16.50 for a trade. Stupid EU regulators blocked purchase by Amazon.

 

[AdamK47]

Also bought IRBT at 16.50 for a trade. Stupid EU regulators blocked purchase by Amazon.

That's a good buy. I'm sure Amazon with their top tier lawyers can get the ball moving again. Stock is bound to go back up.

 

[Zorba]

Backdoor Roth question: I know the backdoor gets one around the income eligibility limit for Roth IRAs. Does it also get around the contribution limit? Could one roll $20,000/year into a Roth?

Not for new money. If you want to get 20K of new money into your Roth, you have to do a super backdoor Roth from your 401k. Last year I backdoored about 80k into our Roths.

 

[jpiniero]

Two totally separate groups. The fed is independent from the US government. Even if the US government needs something, the fed doesn't care.

It's the in the Fed's best interest to stave off a de facto default as long as possible. Cutting rates obviously makes servicing the debt cheaper.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Also bought IRBT at 16.50 for a trade. Stupid EU regulators blocked purchase by Amazon.

I only bought 100 shares for safety sake. From what I was hearing on CNBC, the EU gave Amazon until November to address concerns they had regarding the buyout. Amazon refused to address them. Therefore with the conditions unmet, they may just walk away from the $51.75 share buyout.

Also, IRBT last few ERs have to not been particularly great. So if I can make a quick buck selling calls or scalp a little on the price that may be all I can get since this thing might see $13 then $8 assuming things go south in even more. But thats just my guess without more information. (In which case it would be a fantastic short! And you can join that very crowded trade).

Great job.

I've been toying with the idea of SAVE. It is down 66% in a year and currently at half the valuation of just liquidating it. Meaning if they just liquidated now, you'd double your money (minus expenses). But, I'm worried that they'll drag out the losses until there is nothing left worth liquidating.

Short term gamble opporunity only.

So my 7.50 calls I sold on Friday expired worthless, bringing my cost average down to $6.33. I may consider selling $7 or $6 calls to reduce it even more. The risk is getting the shares called away in a week (which is OK by me so long as I can make a profit doing it).

If the stock opens near $7.50 on Monday (or premarket), my total profit will be $1,220 if I sold immediatly.

Since a $7 call weekly call would like pay over $1 I could make more that way.....unless the thing falls back to $5 sometime this week on renewed bankrupty fears.

The "smart money" does not belive the companies assurances of adequate liquidity and operational guidance if the deal doesnt go ahead as planned and has priced their bonds at a 35% discount to par. Therefore shorts may keep pressure on the stock price.

 

[FelixDeCat]

If AFC wins the superbowl this year does that mean a pullback in stocks?