Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,315
5,837
136
The Fed statement seems to be saying it might be awhile before cutting.

Don't think they would have put that one line in there if they thought a cut was coming in March.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,630
3,383
136
I'm sure the topic of when will come up many many times in the press meeting.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,403
386
126
The interest rates are working, but a soft landing means we dont see a huge downward trend. I don't see cuts til September.
 

Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
10,055
3,211
136
Wow, I kinda f'ed up with my gold call a while ago. Before Oct 7th. Just a few days before it had been around 1825 so I figured that the jump up to around 2115 was an aberration. But apparently not. I mean there's still plenty of mid-east tension, so maybe that's the explanation. I hope not. I hope the current price reflects market fundamentals.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,543
4,038
126
5000 S&P500 in sight.

AMC broke through its $4 floor.

That combination right there should sink in with people. Think about it and then think again. That is why diversification, slow-and-steady, and index/mutual funds are the recommendation of just about every expert on investing.

You can spend all your time, follow all the trends, have infinite discussions on Reddit and here, do all the hocus pocus drawing of lines on charts, spend fortunes on financial advisors, whatever, and you'll eventually lose out to someone who just bought a simple S&P500 fund and forgot about it.
 
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biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,787
5,626
136
5000 S&P500 in sight.

AMC broke through its $4 floor.

That combination right there should sink in with people. Think about it and then think again. That is why diversification, slow-and-steady, and index/mutual funds are the recommendation of just about every expert on investing.

You can spend all your time, follow all the trends, have infinite discussions on Reddit and here, do all the hocus pocus drawing of lines on charts, spend fortunes on financial advisors, whatever, and you'll eventually lose out to someone who just bought a simple S&P500 fund and forgot about it.
All my six index funds took a dive today, because it was the first day trading without being paid 2023 dividends. All mine are set to automatically reinvest dividends.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,543
4,038
126
All my six index funds took a dive today, because it was the first day trading without being paid 2023 dividends. All mine are set to automatically reinvest dividends.
I'm not sure that I understand your intended point.

If you have 1000 shares of $10 stock ($10,000 value), and if it pays a $1 dividend automatically reinvested, then you should end up with 1111 shares of $9 stock ($9,999 value plus $1 leftover).

If you only look at the share price, they take a dive. But if you look at the total value of your investment, they stay the same (plus or minus whatever moves the stock did during the day).

Dividends in of themselves do not gain or lose money for you. Taxes on those dividends are a different matter though.
 

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,787
5,626
136
I'm not sure that I understand your intended point.

If you have 1000 shares of $10 stock ($10,000 value), and if it pays a $1 dividend automatically reinvested, then you should end up with 1111 shares of $9 stock ($9,999 value plus $1 leftover).

If you only look at the share price, they take a dive. But if you look at the total value of your investment, they stay the same (plus or minus whatever moves the stock did during the day).

Dividends in of themselves do not gain or lose money for you. Taxes on those dividends are a different matter though.
Well, it is not something I can change as I don't manage the funds. But otherwise you are correct. :)
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,315
5,837
136
Tim Apple's comments make me think they were caught off guard with how absurdly obsessed Wall Street would get with AI. Almost like they feel like they need to do something even if they don't think it will help sales.
 

AgaBoogaBoo

Lifer
Feb 16, 2003
26,108
5
81
All of those issues are improving faster than if we'd wasted decades on more hybrids, plug in or otherwise. People forget where the EV market was 10 years ago.
You get far more bang for your buck, in terms of societal reduction of refined crude oil, with hybrids. There are many resource limitations down to the mine level that constrain how many batteries can be made. You can jam 70 kwh into a Tesla of use that for 5-10x as many hybrids and PHEVs. The gallons of gas/diesel that are saved from those hybrids and PHEVs will outweigh fewer but full EV cars in my estimation. It's just not anywhere near as sexy.
 
Dec 10, 2005
25,284
8,679
136
You get far more bang for your buck, in terms of societal reduction of refined crude oil, with hybrids. There are many resource limitations down to the mine level that constrain how many batteries can be made. You can jam 70 kwh into a Tesla of use that for 5-10x as many hybrids and PHEVs. The gallons of gas/diesel that are saved from those hybrids and PHEVs will outweigh fewer but full EV cars in my estimation. It's just not anywhere near as sexy.
Yes, hybrids are great (particularly for 1-car households or those without reliable access to charging), but these are all theoretical discussions, aren't they? Americans have shown that they have a "preference" for land tanks based on what they buy.

*Preference in quotes, because it really goes hand-in-hand with decades of advertising telling people that they need some huge vehicle so that auto companies could sell more profitable vehicles.
 
Jun 18, 2000
11,159
740
126
You get far more bang for your buck, in terms of societal reduction of refined crude oil, with hybrids. There are many resource limitations down to the mine level that constrain how many batteries can be made. You can jam 70 kwh into a Tesla of use that for 5-10x as many hybrids and PHEVs. The gallons of gas/diesel that are saved from those hybrids and PHEVs will outweigh fewer but full EV cars in my estimation. It's just not anywhere near as sexy.

The EV market will probably increase to 10% of new car sales this year in the US. That's 2 million cars that will never use a drop of oil. The increased volume will see improvements in battery technology and charging infrastructure far faster than if we'd sit on our hands for decades hoping plug in hybrids catch on. What kind of long distance charging infrastructure would get built if everybody was driving hybrids? Zero.

There is a problem with the market being full of large expensive EV models. That will change over time though.
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,543
4,038
126
Meme stocks that I watch (but don't own) are taking a beating today (generally down 3% to 9%). Any particular reason other that the fed's statement that interest rate cuts aren't imminent?
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,403
386
126
NYCB in freefall.
I think I am going to throw some of my gambling money at this mess. They cut their dividend and the stock price dropped almost 70% because they wrote off two big loans, and had to increase reserves because they reached the over 100 B in assets. They recently bought the assets of Signature bank and Flagstaff bank, so they are in essence three banks in one, at 1/3 third the price of the original bank. They are approaching too big to fail at this point, because if they did fail, it would be like three banks failing. So my gamble is 20% chance of failure, 40% chance of doubling and 40% chance of quadrupling from here. They have the same AUM as Synchrony Financial but at less than 1/3 the market cap. The big scary thing is the CRE market, but only about 16% of their assets are exposed and NY real estate is still the best real estate to be in.
 
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