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Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

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Inflation coming back up. Over industry analysts estimates. Food prices a big contributor.

A jobs report that looks too good will only contribute to the inflation problem.

.50% cut was a bit too much out of the gate.
 
AdamK47 said:
Inflation coming back up.
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???

Annual inflation rates dropped from last month (2.5% to 2.4%). Annual inflation rates have dropped 6 straight months (3.5% to 2.4% now). Inflation is now at the lowest level since Feb 2021. And you post that it is coming back up?
 
The Fed aligns with core inflation in the CPI report which rose to 3.3% from the 3.2% in August. The jobs report was stronger than expected.

Prior to this people were talking a 1% total cut for the year. No more rate cuts for the year could be a possibility. I'm thinking another .25% cut looks more likely for the year.

What do I know, I had a strong feeling the first cut would be .25%.
 
Producer price index came in, up 1.8% for the year. That is about as spot-on perfect as the fed could expect for their goals. Probably means there is room for another 0.25% cut this year. Which, would end up being exactly the three cuts that the fed predicted this time last year for 2024. Stock market is at all time highs on the news.
 
biostud said:
With everything going on on now would you invest a large sum of money or wait for one of the dips that has been happening the last couple of months?
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Personally I would wait until after the election. Mostly because I do think there's a backlog of bad news that's just waiting for the election to be over to come out.

Like the DOJ going after nVidia. Also I'm expecting a lot of layoff announcements (although that may not be so bad for stock prices)
 
In about 6-8 months I'm gonna have some money to invest.. so noob question here..

Which index funds do you guys generally prefer?

And are there any problems with them? (broker fees/ management fees/ non deferred tax)

Could use some pointers... Any thread dedicated to index funds exclusively?
 
Starting out I'd go with an S&P 500 index fund. Get comfortable with it, research, and then broaden out into other sectors. I stick to Vanguard since they traditionally have the lowest fees. That's not always the case anymore with more competition.

Information Tech has been and continues to be hot.
 
It's crazy. I inherited an IRA in August. I don't have to take any until the end of next year, and right now I'm up about $5000. I don't need the money right now, so I may as well let it build for another year, but who knows where the market will be by then.

My personal 401K and Roth I am already maxing out, and my HSA is doing well also, but I am not maxing that out yet. At this rate I'll be able to retire earlier than planned, dangit.
 
nOOky said:
It's crazy. I inherited an IRA in August. I don't have to take any until the end of next year, and right now I'm up about $5000. I don't need the money right now, so I may as well let it build for another year, but who knows where the market will be by then.

My personal 401K and Roth I am already maxing out, and my HSA is doing well also, but I am not maxing that out yet. At this rate I'll be able to retire earlier than planned, dangit.
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The past 10 years have been great. Market models for the next 10 years show things slowing. Something to consider if your expectations are based on the last 10 years.

corporate.vanguard.com

Vanguard Capital Markets Model® forecasts

Here are the returns and volatility levels we believe investors should expect from the financial markets in coming years.
corporate.vanguard.com corporate.vanguard.com
 
Indus said:
In about 6-8 months I'm gonna have some money to invest.. so noob question here..

Which index funds do you guys generally prefer?

And are there any problems with them? (broker fees/ management fees/ non deferred tax)

Could use some pointers... Any thread dedicated to index funds exclusively?
Click to expand...
Vanguard is my preference. You can buy into mutual funds (price set at end of day) or ETFs (price is dynamic while market is open). Plenty of selection of low cost funds.

Depending on your time horizon and risk profile, I'd probably just keep it simple with a 4 fund profile: total stock index fund, total international stock index fund, total bond index fund, and total international bond index fund. It gives you exposure to US and ex-US stocks and bonds.
 
Brainonska511 said:
Vanguard is my preference. You can buy into mutual funds (price set at end of day) or ETFs (price is dynamic while market is open). Plenty of selection of low cost funds.

Depending on your time horizon and risk profile, I'd probably just keep it simple with a 4 fund profile: total stock index fund, total international stock index fund, total bond index fund, and total international bond index fund. It gives you exposure to US and ex-US stocks and bonds.
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I don't trust mutual funds.. my dad bought some and after 13 years (1992-2005) he just lost money on it.

Index funds mirroring S&P500 or something close to it might be more my thing if something like that exists.

I generally get power index annuity's.. so my growth is capped but my principle is safe.. so I've been happy with that. But it's time to gamble a little bit hoping I can get to my figure I have in my mind a bit faster.
 
Indus said:
I don't trust mutual funds.. my dad bought some and after 13 years (1992-2005) he just lost money on it.

Index funds mirroring S&P500 or something close to it might be more my thing if something like that exists.

I generally get power index annuity's.. so my growth is capped but my principle is safe.. so I've been happy with that. But it's time to gamble a little bit hoping I can get to my figure I have in my mind a bit faster.
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An index fund is just a fund that tracks against some arbitrary index - it can be set up as an ETF or a typical mutual fund. Any investing is subject to risk. But if Vanguard funds go belly up, we'll have bigger problems on our hands.

Anyway, it might have been a poorly selected fund if he somehow lost money in that time period, considering the return the S&P500 would have provided: https://www.officialdata.org/us/stocks/s-p-500/1992?amount=10000&endYear=2005
 
Indus said:
In about 6-8 months I'm gonna have some money to invest.. so noob question here..

Which index funds do you guys generally prefer?

And are there any problems with them? (broker fees/ management fees/ non deferred tax)

Could use some pointers... Any thread dedicated to index funds exclusively?
Click to expand...
Those are great questions. Our crystal balls for the future are broken right now. So, we can only say what is most likely to happen. (As a side note: everyone who thinks they have a great idea to get rich quick also has a broken crystal ball). We are working on repairing the crystal balls, but until that happens:

1) If you follow the hot idea of the moment, the fad stock, the latest get rich quick scheme, you are most likely to end up losing money in the long run, maybe breaking even if you are lucky.

2) If you buy and sell regularly, then most likely you are going to break even at best.

3) You can predict the next Apple or next NVidia stock and get fabulously wealthy. But, most likely that won't happen.

4) Only 55% of businesses make it 5 years. Only 25% of businesses make it 15 years. Think about that before you invest all your money into one company.

5) How do you guarantee that you invest in the next big thing and also guarantee that you don't lose your shirt in a company that fails? Easy: buy a little bit of everything. If the underwater basket weaving company becomes the next Crocs and stupidly profits selling ugly junk? Guess what, an index fund owns it and so could you. If that thing-a-bob company goes under, guess what, the index fund is only 0.1% in it and you'll never notice that small of a loss.

Hint, yes get index funds.

6) Which index fund to buy? My crystal ball is broken. I don't know which index fund will do the best or which will do poorly. But, I do know which index funds will milk you of 1/3rd of your money. That is any index fund with a fee much over 1%. Heck, I won't buy funds with a fee much over 0.1%. A 2% fee doesn't sound like much. But that is 2% of your money, every year for as many years as you own that fund. That adds up quickly to a big chunk of your fortune.

Start with a low fee S&P500 fund (VFIAX) or Total stock market fund (VTSAX). As long as you are choosing a broad, low-fee fund, it doesn't matter which one you pick. What matters is that you get your money into a fund and how long you are there. Then, as time goes on, you can add a few more funds to get even more diverse.
 
AdamK47 said:
The past 10 years have been great. Market models for the next 10 years show things slowing. Something to consider if your expectations are based on the last 10 years.

corporate.vanguard.com

Vanguard Capital Markets Model® forecasts

Here are the returns and volatility levels we believe investors should expect from the financial markets in coming years.
corporate.vanguard.com corporate.vanguard.com
Click to expand...
Thanks. I have to take the time to go through and decide what I want to change the investments to, currently they are still running under what my brother had which is a mix of VFIAX, VTINX, VASGX, and VSCGX. It's been okay, but not stellar. My 401k is much riskier right now but that is through Principal and I theoretically have about 8 years to retirement.
 
nOOky said:
Thanks. I have to take the time to go through and decide what I want to change the investments to, currently they are still running under what my brother had which is a mix of VFIAX, VTINX, VASGX, and VSCGX. It's been okay, but not stellar. My 401k is much riskier right now but that is through Principal and I theoretically have about 8 years to retirement.
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Over the last year, the return of that basket has been quite good (10.6% to 34.0% for the various funds) if you compare it to what you should expect in a normal year (6% to 10%). But, yes, if you compare it to an aggressive fund in the last very good year, they didn't quite perform up to that level. I just don't want you to expect such large returns in the future. Nice to have, but uncommon.

I see problems with that particular mixture. VTINX and VSCGX are basically identical. There is no reason to own both. See the yellow and orange curves below. Since VSCGX has the higher fee, I'd ditch that one.
1729001736550.png

Next problem: VASGX and VSCGX invest in the exact same 4 mutual funds and nothing else. The only difference is that one is more conservative mixture than the other. It looks diverse to have so many funds with different names, but if they are investing in the same underlying items, it really isn't that diverse. Meaning if one of the underlying funds goes down, three of your four funds will go down in flames with it. One more reason to dump VSCGX.

Then buy something a bit more diverse. These simple portfolios are diverse and tried-and-true. Pick one and go with it. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Lazy_portfolios I personally go with something quite similar to Bernstein's Coward's Portfolio listed there. Although, I have half as many bonds (since I'm not yet nearing retirement) and invest it in more in the total stock market and large cap stocks.
 
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