Discussion ***Official*** 2022 Stock Market Thread

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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,989
2,680
126
Friday is going to be the next read on CPI. Its going to be crazy for the market either way.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,777
3,600
136
The government spends $7 trillion on pandemic stimulus and yet Janet Yellen was caught by surprise by the level of inflation. There were warnings before the second stimulus checks went out that it would increase inflation.
 

PlanetJosh

Golden Member
May 6, 2013
1,814
143
106
Bought AMD at $109 yesterday so now I'm in a bit of a hurt as it's down to about $105 but I won't lose money on this trade. I've set a target price of $78 that it can't fall below. I'm basing this on that AMD hasn't been that low in a little over a year ago. It's a long trade, no puts just to be clear.

And just over a year is considered long term so I'm using a sort of long term timeline for my research. All I have to do is sit back and wait until it goes back up over $109. There may be tumults down and up but it can't go below $78 because of the historical DD I've done. And also because I wish it to be so that it never goes below $78.

If it does hit $78 then I'll sell in order to preserve a certain amount of cash reserves. Yeah that would mean a more serious hit in losses but it's more important I remain at or above a certain level of cash in CDs, money market, and savings. I can afford to lose the whole AMD purchase but the point is one of pride. I'm not going to wind up below the amount of cash I want keep and the added bonus that I'm not going to lose a damn cent on this trade if it takes 2 years for it to go back up.

I realize some can say relax it'll probably go back up in a couple months and that I've wasted four paragraphs of post space in mumbling about a fantasy DD. Maybe. As far as the amount of the buy I don't really want to imply how much my total worth is but the AMD buy was in the several tens of thousands of $. And that doesn't really stand out as a very high amount compared to the high flying buys of others here.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,989
2,680
126
Bought AMD at $109 yesterday so now I'm in a bit of a hurt as it's down to about $105 but I won't lose money on this trade. I've set a target price of $78 that it can't fall below. I'm basing this on that AMD hasn't been that low in a little over a year ago. It's a long trade, no puts just to be clear.

And just over a year is considered long term so I'm using a sort of long term timeline for my research. All I have to do is sit back and wait until it goes back up over $109. There may be tumults down and up but it can't go below $78 because of the historical DD I've done. And also because I wish it to be so that it never goes below $78.

If it does hit $78 then I'll sell in order to preserve a certain amount of cash reserves. Yeah that would mean a more serious hit in losses but it's more important I remain at or above a certain level of cash in CDs, money market, and savings. I can afford to lose the whole AMD purchase but the point is one of pride. I'm not going to wind up below the amount of cash I want keep and the added bonus that I'm not going to lose a damn cent on this trade if it takes 2 years for it to go back up.

I realize some can say relax it'll probably go back up in a couple months and that I've wasted four paragraphs of post space in mumbling about a fantasy DD. Maybe. As far as the amount of the buy I don't really want to imply how much my total worth is but the AMD buy was in the several tens of thousands of $. And that doesn't really stand out as a very high amount compared to the high flying buys of others here.

Maybe just quit looking at it might be the best advice. ;)
 

PlanetJosh

Golden Member
May 6, 2013
1,814
143
106
Isn't there an ongoing brighter side with most of us in all this? Mutual funds I mean, the safer ones. I'm heavily invested in the Franklin Income Fund FKIQX. And as of today it's down only 7% from it all time high. Not bad for these days.

I get 4.5% a year clear in dividends from it after the fees are collected. It's at $2.38 a share currently. The low price may be a little concerning but you get used to it.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,406
389
126
CPI was 8.6% in May. Maybe we will get the triple hike?

Its possible, but won't likely help. CPI is high, not due to overspending, but due to the costs of gas, shelter and food. Raising interest rates have already weakened housing demand, but it won't help the others unless it causes a massive recession and people stop driving and eating.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,989
2,680
126
Anyone but myself old enough to remember Jimmy Carters inflation mess of the late 70s?

The worst part about inflation is that gains are usually permanent, or suffer minor losses.

Don't expect to see homes to go back to 2015 prices....ever. :(

The $20,000 strip down new car? History.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
16,818
7,258
136
Its possible, but won't likely help. CPI is high, not due to overspending, but due to the costs of gas, shelter and food. Raising interest rates have already weakened housing demand, but it won't help the others unless it causes a massive recession and people stop driving and eating.

It should help the dollar, which should in turn help stem oil from going higher.

Still, I am only seeing a few anecdotes about people losing their job over refusing to RTO. The CPI numbers just make the Fed's job easier.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,989
2,680
126
It should help the dollar, which should in turn help stem oil from going higher.

Still, I am only seeing a few anecdotes about people losing their job over refusing to RTO. The CPI numbers just make the Fed's job easier.

Like I said earlier in this thread - we need an emergency rate hike of a full 100 basis points!
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,989
2,680
126
Buy bitcoin, it's a hedge against inflation they said...unless it too is wildly inflated to $65,000.

I suspect Kathy Wood will get her own episode of American Greed.

"Tonight, on American Greed, she promised 500% returns on overpriced stocks in a bubble market...."
 
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brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
24,624
6,011
136
Buy bitcoin, it's a hedge against inflation they said...unless it too is wildly inflated to $65,000.

I suspect Kathy Wood will get her own episode of American Greed.

michael saylor ought to get his own too if bitcoin prices fall below his 21$k margin call point

MSTR down almost %65 this year... and sitting on a +%20 drop pre-market
 

brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
24,624
6,011
136
20% prime rate!? Anyone?😬

shoot if that happens i'll be able to buy the house i want in cash
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unless the inflation makes my cash worth half as much
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