Discussion ***Official*** 2022 Stock Market Thread

[AdamK47]

Looks like we are off to a nice start .... how does -2.50% premarket sound?

Sounds great. Looking for VTI sub 200.

 

[brianmanahan]

dang it, i put 20$k in on friday, guess i should've waited a day.

ah well, if it goes down another %10 then i'll sell em and grab the cap losses for taxes

 

[jpiniero]

Sounds great. Looking for VTI sub 200.

Wouldn't be buying until it hits pre-pandemic levels, which for VTI would be 160 or once the Fed stops increasing rates.

 

[dullard]

Wouldn't be buying until it hits pre-pandemic levels, which for VTI would be 160 or once the Fed stops increasing rates.

I don't understand this rush to catch a falling knife. You get two chances to buy with falling prices. I'd much rather buy VTI at 200 when it is going up with sound financial basis than buy VTI at 200 when it is falling with no bottom in sight.

 

[Ken g6]

If this is a real bubble popping, I saw a chart that showed prices could fall 50% from highs. But if you feel the urge to invest now, you could dollar-cost-average by investing small amounts frequently. I dollar-cost-averaged my withdrawal of money near the pre-fall peak last month.

 

[FelixDeCat]

QQQ sub 300. CPI up next. Expect more fun.

Even if CPI declines it won't matter. We have a lot big price hikes in homes, cars, food and energy to absorb. Incomes are way behind.

 

[dullard]

QQQ sub 300. CPI up next. Expect more fun.

Even if CPI declines it won't matter. We have a lot big price hikes in homes, cars, food and energy to absorb. Incomes are way behind.

Technically car prices have been falling since January. They haven't fallen a lot, but they have begun falling. That will take a lot of pressure off the CPI going forward (assuming the higher interest rates keep this trend going).

 

[AdamK47]

dang it, i put 20$k in on friday, guess i should've waited a day.

ah well, if it goes down another %10 then i'll sell em and grab the cap losses for taxes

I'd just keep it if you plan to hold for many years. My current buys are all longer term. Not doing anything short term right now for a quick turn-around. At least not until the rate hikes are done and inflation has been stabilized. Those that are better at playing this game might see some short term gains.

 

[brianmanahan]

I'd just keep it if you plan to hold for many years. My current buys are all longer term. Not doing anything short term right now for a quick turn-around. At least not until the rate hikes are done and inflation has been stabilized. Those that are better at playing this game might see some short term gains.

oh yeah, it's just retirement money now that i've put it in there

 

[FelixDeCat]

I think a 40% correction in home and car prices should do the trick.

 

[ultimatebob]

dang it, i put 20$k in on friday, guess i should've waited a day.

ah well, if it goes down another %10 then i'll sell em and grab the cap losses for taxes

Yeah... I want to buy even more cheap tech stocks on this dip, but I'm running out of cash to do so.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Yeah... I want to buy even more cheap tech stocks on this dip, but I'm running out of cash to do so.

Cheap? You haven't seen nothing yet.

 

[jpiniero]

QQQ under 300. On Feb 1 2020, it was 205.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Margin calls on deck. Poor rich people. 😢

 

[dullard]

I don't understand this rush to catch a falling knife. You get two chances to buy with falling prices. I'd much rather buy VTI at 200 when it is going up with sound financial basis than buy VTI at 200 when it is falling with no bottom in sight.

Note: I didn't expect for this to occur today already. But, I do hope you didn't buy VTI the first time it dipped under $200.

 

[brianmanahan]

at least my bonds didn't fall %4 today too

so i got that going for me, which is nice

 

[FelixDeCat]

Upstart beats on revs and earnings....and gets a royal beat down after hours, down 40%, nearly 50% down total today.

That's what you get for doing well, and don't you forget it!

 

[Tweak155]

Note: I didn't expect for this to occur today already. But, I do hope you didn't buy VTI the first time it dipped under $200.

Where should he put his money?

 

[AdamK47]

Where should he put his money?

Move it to physical cash. Put it in a jar and bury it for six months.

 

[dullard]

Where should he put his money?

Depends on his planned investment strategy prior to the plunge. If he is now low in any specific area, then invest in that area. Growth stocks are what fell the most today (2x to 3x more than value stocks). So, probably that is where the investments are getting low.

I was mostly referring to this post: from @AdamK47 "Looking for VTI sub 200." Adam has posted about buying several times already in this falling market. And these investments probably have not done well in the last couple of days. The general advice is not to catch a falling knife. Don't try to rush in during this transition. Sit back, you have a bit more time than you might think. There is no problem buying VTI if that is what best matches the investment strategy that was already decided. But, patience is okay. You don't have to look for a price and buy. You can watch it hit that price, think about it, and then decide to buy the second time it hits that price (or in some cases any of the future times it hits that price).

 

[Tweak155]

Depends on his planned investment strategy prior to the plunge. If he is now low in any specific area, then invest in that area. Growth stocks are what fell the most today (2x to 3x more than value stocks). So, probably that is where the investments are getting low.

I was mostly referring to this post: from @AdamK47 "Looking for VTI sub 200." Adam has posted about buying several times already in this falling market. And these investments probably have not done well in the last couple of days. The general advice is not to catch a falling knife. Don't try to rush in during this transition. Sit back, you have a bit more time than you might think. There is no problem buying VTI if that is what best matches the investment strategy that was already decided. But, patience is okay. You don't have to look for a price and buy. You can watch it hit that price, think about it, and then decide to buy the second time it hits that price (or in some cases any of the future times it hits that price).

It doesn't make sense to me to skip buying it at a price on the way down, only to buy it at the same price on the way back up. You'd need idle cash in both scenarios, and the net long term return would be the same in both scenarios (assuming he holds).

It would make sense however if you have an alternate place to put the cash and have it grow while the price keeps moving lower, but not much isn't tanking right now... so was curious what you thought might be growing while waiting for the price to rebound.

I don't think there is any disagreement $VTI is a good investment (at least I'm not getting that sense from you) ... ? Outside of that, you'd need specific knowledge of which areas are going to grow while the rest of the market stays flat or moves lower. It's not an easy game to play as I'm sure you're aware.

 

[dullard]

It doesn't make sense to me to skip buying it at a price on the way down, only to buy it at the same price on the way back up. You'd need idle cash in both scenarios, and the net long term return would be the same in both scenarios (assuming he holds).

If your goal is to buy at a set price, then buying on the way up has three benefits.

1) You don't get burned the way he has already been burned multiple times this week as the price keeps falling.
2) Usually when prices are on the way up they have a much more solid reason to be going up.
3) Waiting lets you buy lower than your goal. That is, you have the time to think and set a new goal price. If he bought the first time it dipped under $200 (the stated goal), then that meant he missed out on buying it in the upper $197 range. That is a 1% missed gain just due to rushing.


You don't need to have an alternative investment. You just need a bit of patience. As I admitted above, I didn't expect the dip and gain to be all in one day though. So the patience needed was only a few hours this time.

It would make sense however if you have an alternate place to put the cash and have it grow while the price keeps moving lower, but not much isn't tanking right now... so was curious what you thought might be growing while waiting for the price to rebound.

Unfortunately, no I don't have a great location for cash right now. Nothing liquid will be paying anything close to what inflation is costing. But still, a near 0% return is better than a loss buying a plunging stock.

I think you have to choose your strategy. Either (1) just buy as soon as you have cash and forget timing or (2) buy at a set price. #1 historically is usually the best option and addresses your concern about where to put spare cash since you don't have spare cash. But given that the stated goal was buying at a set price, then there is a slightly better way to do it and that is buying at (or below) that set price on the way up.

 

[PlanetJosh]

I don't want to get too greedy. In mid day some joker financial VIP could make some random statement to tank the markets. But some oil is down and some bond rates are down so I'm going to buy a boatload of some tech company this morning. AMD, NVDA or whatever. For a day trade, not interested in holding overnight.

Just pray for a morning dip in the Nasdaq. Because yesterday I didn't place order at open price today and of course stocks bolted up at the open this morning.

Edit: The Nas is having a dip after the rapid open rise this morning. What the heck to I do now? Wait for the dip to sink more or buy. ..great idk... Ok back again and man I just blew the low of the morning dip by not buying partly due to time spent making this post. Maybe a 2nd morning dip in Nas will happen. No cahones.

Edit again: I maybe see a 2nd dip in the Nas forming. This is nuts, but not like that's anything new.

 

[AdamK47]

I know you guys care about me. You are looking out for my best interests. It's truly heart warming and I really appreciate it.

Me and the 3 shares of VTI I bought yesterday will be fine. I'll raise those 3 shares in the best possible way I possibly can. Nurture, love, and time will raise those 3 little ones into the large strong shares I know they have the potential to become.

Fear not, more buying will occur as we see further dips. I must liberate shares from those with catchy buzz phrases and shortsightedness. The knife will fall and catch attempts will be made. I'll give them a good home for years to come.

Positions I bought in 08, 11, 16, 18, 20, etc. have all grown to be the fine shares I knew they could be.

 

[PlanetJosh]

Well the 2nd Nas dip of the morning has gone negative along with the other two major indexes. You need super cahones now to buy during this dip as far as a day trade or even to hold it for a day or two.