Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[dasherHampton]

My Dec BAC puts are quite cheap to buy back now. The last time I checked the price was around $450 for the whole lot.

One part of my subconscious leering over my shoulder keeps telling me "Just buy them back. Then the whole thing is over and you won't have to worry about getting put the stock anymore. If the Dems sweep it could get a lot more expensive if some sort of nightmare scenario happens."

The other half of my subconscious, looking over the other shoulder, says "Don't do it. There's no reason to take almost $500 and set it on fire. BAC will not drop below 16 by Dec. Just let them expire. The Dems won't even be in power in Dec"

I think I'll listen to twerp #2. I doubt the Dems would want to push the big banks too hard during an economic recovery.

 

[Saylick]

Good job, Trump. Not screwing up the stock market was one of the few remaining plays you had to prop up your re-election chances and you squandered that too. Everything just looks like a shovel to him, and he just doesn't know what to do besides keep digging that hole.

 

[ponyo]

My wife and I took our dog for a walk because it was such nice day outside. Before I left, the market was so boring. After I came back from the walk, the market had sold off because of Trump's no stimulus deal until after the election tweet. Before I left, I put limit order to buy TSLA at $409 in case the stock dropped. It hit while I was gone. After I came back, I immediately sold and flipped the same shares for $414.xx. I made over $2k while enjoying my walk. It was nice surprise because I didn't check the market on my phone because I wanted to enjoy the beautiful sky and outdoors.

So good job Trump. You made me some nice pocket change while I was walking my dog. Now I can go buy some bone-in ribeye steaks from Publix to grill for dinner. You paid for the steak.

 

[Artorias]

My wife and I took our dog for a walk because it was such nice day outside. Before I left, the market was so boring. After I came back from the walk, the market had sold off because of Trump's no stimulus deal until after the election tweet. Before I left, I put limit order to buy TSLA at $409 in case the stock dropped. It hit while I was gone. After I came back, I immediately sold and flipped the same shares for $414.xx. I made over $2k while enjoying my walk. It was nice surprise because I didn't check the market on my phone because I wanted to enjoy the beautiful sky and outdoors.

So good job Trump. You made me some nice pocket change while I was walking my dog. Now I can go buy some bone-in ribeye steaks from Publix to grill for dinner. You paid for the steak.

You make it look so easy. Is this your day job by chance?

 

[jpiniero]

Good job, Trump. Not screwing up the stock market was one of the few remaining plays you had to prop up your re-election chances and you squandered that too. Everything just looks like a shovel to him, and he just doesn't know what to do besides keep digging that hole.

At some point you have to think Trump realizes he's going to lose. TBH I was kind of expecting Trump to use him catching the virus as an excuse to quit/drop out.

I'm kind of opposed to another stimulus because it seems like it'll just end up juicing the stock market and not actually helping the economy.

 

[Saylick]

At some point you have to think Trump realizes he's going to lose. TBH I was kind of expecting Trump to use him catching the virus as an excuse to quit/drop out.

I'm kind of opposed to another stimulus because it seems like it'll just end up juicing the stock market and not actually helping the economy.

If a stimulus gets passed, it needs to go to the people who will most likely spend it on living expenses, e.g. rent, groceries, utility bills, etc. Under such a proposal, if the stock market rallies as a result of it, it won't be because stimulus money is going into the stock market, it will be because investors who have cash waiting on the side lines have more confidence that the economy will pull through and thus enter the market. Of course, if you give money unilateral across the board, regardless of their current financial situation or amount of disposable income, naturally a portion of it will just get used in investments or just end up sitting in a bank account.

I wonder if it's possible to issue the stimulus as pre-paid debit cards that can only be used for certain purchase categories.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Sigh.

I shorted the QQQ's in the Yellow Range, the SHORT VOL crowd is the next up arrow. The last arrow is the Trump bomb.

Barring the unknown, we will go back up. Luckily I was hedged both ways so while I was ahead at one point, I ended the day neutral with trades on both sides that have to be unwound this week.

 

[FelixDeCat]

If you watch the minute to minute trading on a daily basis for YEARS like I have you notice the same pattern on a daily and weekly basis. It helps to know these patterns so you wont be fooled into believing something.

Remember the pattern:


8:30 AM CST - Market opens either up or down. Those people that are "in the money" take some profits. Those that are short and worried, cover. Those that are in a bad stock and know it, sell. These are done ASAP in the first 15 mins of trading. If you can afford it, you ride it out and see what happens. If you want to start a new position, you wait and see.

9:00 AM CST - One position starts to emerge - longs or shorts take over and they try to set the tone based on whats going on in Europe. No sense in letting Europeans arbitrage our market to theirs for stocks listed in both markets.

9:30 AM CST - The first reversal trade starts. Happens every damn day like clockwork one hour into trading. You can set your watch to it. If the market trend is overall up, it starts to go down. If you like to short the market, this is where you get fooled. This is the trend to avoid. Later on it will reverse again and go back up. The opposite is also true, a down market ticks up here, dont buy it, it goes back down.

10:00 AM CST - 30 minutes to European close. The second reversal happens. This is the first batch of big morons or computer trading. They always do the opposite of whats happening. They buy down markets and sell up markets. This is also I time I watch. By now you should have a feel for the market based on headlines here and in Europe so you decide what to do.

10:30 AM CST - European markets close, now the US market can trade without their influence.

11:00 AM CST - The talking heads are all over CNBC. They talk about the market trends and individual stocks. The SHORT VOL crowd is at work.

12:00 PM to 2:00 PM CST - IF THE MARKET IS UP OR DOWN BIG, it usually only gets stronger/reinforced here based on sentiment and headlines. These are the "dont fight the trend" hours, unless you are positive you know better.

Watch out for the SHORT VOL crowd, they are always ready to rain on your parade. Conversely they get pounded sometimes too, that is what exacerbates a downtrend in these hours!! Sometimes it only takes one headline LIKE A TRUMP BOMB to screw things up for everybody.

2:30PM - 3PM CST - Continue earlier trend. Counter trends also start here indicating tomorrows action.


And now the Weekly Pattern -

MONDAYS - Usually a BUY DAY, AKA Merger Monday.
TUESDAYS - Usually a DOUBT DAY, USUALLY A PULLBACK.
WEDNESDAYS - Usually another BUY DAY or GET SHORT day.
THURSDAYS - Sometimes another DOUBT DAY. Notorious reversal day.
FRIDAY - Can be anything.

 

[ponyo]

Bought more TSLA shares after-hours yesterday and this morning. Also sold Nov 20 $15 covered calls on PLTR this morning. And trying to sell some CSP on PLTR as well. IV is like 125% on those November PLTR options so nice premium for sellers.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

So... why exactly is the market up today? Based on Trump tweets that he would sign individual relief bills (he mentioned 25B airline relief and $1,200 stimulus checks) if passed?

We already know the dems won't do that at a single bill level, so why the fuck is the market up?

 

[ponyo]

So... why exactly is the market up today? Based on Trump tweets that he would sign individual relief bills (he mentioned 25B airline relief and $1,200 stimulus checks) if passed?

We already know the dems won't do that at a single bill level, so why the fuck is the market up?

Because stonks only go up! We had 4 years of Trump. People have gotten used to his stupid tactics. I know I have. I know his games. No one really cares about Trump, airline relief, and $1.2k stimulus checks. Shit is old news and already discounted. Market will explode up if those gets passed. If not, market is still going up. Trend is your friend.

There's so much liquidity and excess money that's looking for any kind of return. Everyone is chasing returns right now. Stock market is still the best place to put that money even though some of the valuations are stupid. But you know what else is more stupid? Seeing the animal spirit of the market and how nothing can bring it down and still not riding the wave up higher.

So how much have you missed this year by being a massive pussy and thinking you were smarter than the market? You thought everyone was stupid and you were so smart. Oh, the economy is going to crumble, you said. People are unemployed. Virus is going to get worse. Lol. No shit. You think you're the only one who thought that? Tell us something we don't know.

The sooner you admit you don't know shit and not smarter than the market, the better off you'll be. You suffer from the same disease that value investors have. Value investors think they're so much smarter than everyone else. They think they know more than others and they're the only ones who can see the low PE of a stock. lol. Arrogance is the downfall of value investors. Stock market is a casino and popularity contest. It's why growth investing > value.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Because stonks only go up! We had 4 years of Trump. People have gotten used to his stupid tactics. I know I have. I know his games. No one really cares about Trump, airline relief, and $1.2k stimulus checks. Shit is old news and already discounted. Market will explode up if those gets passed. If not, market is still going up. Trend is your friend.

There's so much liquidity and excess money that's looking for any kind of return. Everyone is chasing returns right now. Stock market is still the best place to put that money even though some of the valuations are stupid. But you know what else is more stupid? Seeing the animal spirit of the market and how nothing can bring it down and still not riding the wave up higher.

So how much have you missed this year by being a massive pussy and thinking you were smarter than the market? You thought everyone was stupid and you were so smart. Oh, the economy is going to crumble, you said. People are unemployed. Virus is going to get worse. Lol. No shit. You think you're the only one who thought that? Tell us something we don't know.

The sooner you admit you don't know shit and not smarter than the market, the better off you'll be. You suffer from the same disease that value investors have. Value investors think they're so much smarter than everyone else. They think they know more than others and they're the only ones who can see the low PE of a stock. lol. Arrogance is the downfall of value investors. Stock market is a casino and popularity contest. It's why growth investing > value.

Oh believe me, I never claim to be a market expert. I fully admit that I don't know shit about it. Hence why I'm asking questions like why the market is up today.

Can't say I've lost much this year, I've begrudgingly continued with my standard 401/IRA/HSA/529 and after tax brokerage contributions for my index funds on a reoccurring basis like I do every year. Never touch em either.

What I haven't done this year is individual stocks. I'm a fan of buying dips that I can tell are drastically overblown because I'm just better at seeing those vs. other types of growth with individual stocks. Everyone is different.

Examples of Chipotle, AMD and Activision were great buys for me last year. All were easily more than doubled from their over-reacted dips.

 

[zinfamous]

Because stonks only go up! We had 4 years of Trump. People have gotten used to his stupid tactics. I know I have. I know his games. No one really cares about Trump, airline relief, and $1.2k stimulus checks. Shit is old news and already discounted. Market will explode up if those gets passed. If not, market is still going up. Trend is your friend.

There's so much liquidity and excess money that's looking for any kind of return. Everyone is chasing returns right now. Stock market is still the best place to put that money even though some of the valuations are stupid. But you know what else is more stupid? Seeing the animal spirit of the market and how nothing can bring it down and still not riding the wave up higher.

So how much have you missed this year by being a massive pussy and thinking you were smarter than the market? You thought everyone was stupid and you were so smart. Oh, the economy is going to crumble, you said. People are unemployed. Virus is going to get worse. Lol. No shit. You think you're the only one who thought that? Tell us something we don't know.

The sooner you admit you don't know shit and not smarter than the market, the better off you'll be. You suffer from the same disease that value investors have. Value investors think they're so much smarter than everyone else. They think they know more than others and they're the only ones who can see the low PE of a stock. lol. Arrogance is the downfall of value investors. Stock market is a casino and popularity contest. It's why growth investing > value.

You sound a little high on Hermes.

 

[ponyo]

You sound a little high on Hermes.

I was trying to imitate @s0me0nesmind1 rage. I got little carried away.

But seriously, I agree with Lloyd Blankfein that money is close to a free commodity right now and the wash of money is creating bubble elements in the market.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/08/llo...elements-in-markets-thanks-to-free-money.html

For example, I could borrow $3 million from Interactive Brokers right now and pay 0.880% margin interest rate. Think about that. $3 million and pay less than 1% interest rate on the borrowed money. It's absolutely insane. Sometimes I feel so stupid for not taking advantage of the free money offer.

 

[dasherHampton]

There has to be some kind of catch. Who lends 3 million at less than a percent interest? Are you forgetting to add the base rate?

How big would your account have to be to get that kind of margin loan?

 

[ultimatebob]

There has to be some kind of catch. Who lends 3 million at less than a percent interest? Are you forgetting to add the base rate?

How big would your account have to be to get that kind of margin loan?

The catch is that if you invest that money foolishly, you're going to be paying off that loan for a VERY long time

 

[dasherHampton]

The catch is that if you invest that money foolishly, you're going to be paying off that loan for a VERY long time

I'm no math whiz when it comes to compound interest and the like, but at less than a percent you could surely take a million of the three (probably a lot less), set it up in safe, income producing investments to pay the interest and some principal indefinitely, and have two million to spend however you want.

 

[ponyo]

There has to be some kind of catch. Who lends 3 million at less than a percent interest? Are you forgetting to add the base rate?

How big would your account have to be to get that kind of margin loan?

The catch is Interactive Brokers is super strict with their margin lending. They routinely adjust margin limits on various securities way more aggressive than other brokerages I use. And IB has what they call "Exposure Fee" they charge on top of the margin loan if they perceive you to have very risky positions even though you satisfy the exchange margin requirements. They're the only broker I use that have this small fine print and will impose the daily charge if they think you could suffer excessive losses in case of significant market move. Their risk analysis department is crazy aggressive. And unlike all other brokers I've used, IB don't give you 3 day grace period to bring your account current if you get a margin call. IB doesn't call you. Their computers will automatically sell your positions the minute your account falls below the minimum margin threshold. IB doesn't play around when it comes to margin calls. You get none.

But the flip side, IB charges the lowest margin rates in the industry for Joe Blow like me. And IB has the fastest and best order execution of any broker I've used. I have brokerage accounts at 5 different brokerages so I have experience with who's good and bad with order execution. IB is unmatched. Of course you pay for it because you pay for each stock trades if you use IB Pro. You pay for everything separately at Interactive Brokers. They even charge you to get real time stock quotes. But I rather pay couple bucks a trade and never have downtime and quick flawless execution than get "free trades" and get front run by likes of Citadel and other leeches. You get what you pay for and it's worth it to pay for trades once your trading $ become large enough that slippage and execution matter.

You can check IBKR Pro margin rates yourself.
https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=46376

 

[FelixDeCat]

Long 2000 SAVA, 2000 VXRT

I keep dreaming SAVA goes to $50, but thats just speculation and not based on anything else.

 

[Tweak155]

Something potentially illegal may have happened over in WSB today. Some how this guy had "due dilligence" on GME price skyrocketing by Jan... only thing that is bizarre is it skyrocketed less than an hour after his post when an announcement was made there would be a partnership between GameStop and Microsoft:

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/j7hbiu

Very fishy to say the least. Apparently quite a few people believed this guy and made bank buying calls.

 

[ponyo]

Holy crap! Missed that today because I was too busy messing around with my new bedroom TV and trying to calibrate it to check WSB. I know at least one person on WSB who's thrilled with today's news.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/j2u3zn

This guy made like $2 million dollars today from his GME stocks and calls. His account should be over $3.5 million since the stock is climbing afterhours. This guy was all in on GameStop for like a year and posted monthly update to his position. People made fun of him in the beginning but he held like a boss. He turned $140k into $3.5 million and counting. I thought he was absolutely nuts. But it just goes to show you anything is possible. And this is why I don't believe in diversification. You can't get this type of crazy return if you're diversified. Screw diversification. If you're poor and looking to strike rich, diversification will slow you down. You diversify once you become rich. Not when you're poor.

 

[jpiniero]

Hah, I came to post about Gamestop. They announce they are adopting Microsoft 365, and the stock skyrockets?

 

[bbhaag]

This guy made like $2 million dollars today from his GME stocks and calls. His account should be over $3.5 million since the stock is climbing afterhours. This guy was all in on GameStop for like a year and posted monthly update to his position. People made fun of him in the beginning but he held like a boss. He turned $140k into $3.5 million and counting. I thought he was absolutely nuts. But it just goes to show you anything is possible. And this is why I don't believe in diversification. You can't get this type of crazy return if you're diversified. Screw diversification. If you're poor and looking to strike rich, diversification will slow you down. You diversify once you become rich. Not when you're poor.

Meh that might be one approach to take but it doesn't work for everyone. You can't site one example like this and then write off diversification for everyone. You could even have a hundred examples like this and it still wouldn't justify such a broad stance like yours. Not everyone has the knowledge, willingness, cash up front, time, or stomach for individual trading.

That's just the honest to Gods truth and for those millions and millions of people, taking the slow and steady approach just works better. I will say though that guy nailed it and made bank off his bet on GS.

 

[brianmanahan]

That's just the honest to Gods truth and for those millions and millions of people, taking the slow and steady approach just works better.

yeah it's fun to read about but there's no way i'd do it, lol

boring index funds have worked well enough that i could probably retire now, but i'll plug along for another 8 years

 

[FelixDeCat]

Something potentially illegal may have happened over in WSB today. Some how this guy had "due dilligence" on GME price skyrocketing by Jan... only thing that is bizarre is it skyrocketed less than an hour after his post when an announcement was made there would be a partnership between GameStop and Microsoft:

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/j7hbiu

Very fishy to say the least. Apparently quite a few people believed this guy and made bank buying calls.

I glanced at the link. I dont necessarily see anything fishy. A lot of websites track unusual option activity and publish the information.