Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[ponyo]

I mean, I'll believe a $70k cyber truck exists when it can actually be sold for that. Same thing with the "$35k Model 3."Besides, they are still 2022, 2023, right?

Other than that, I agree.

Well I have the $70k Cybertruck Tri-Motor on preorder. I'm like 40,000 on the preorder list so I should get my truck pretty early compared to later orders. I'm 100% confident Tesla will deliver. Tesla will use the new 4680 battery that was revealed at Battery Day to power the Cybertruck. Tesla battery tech is why Try-Motor Cybertruck with 500 mile range can be sold for $70k. Cybertruck will be built at the new Austin Gigafactory. That factory should be built and up and running sometime in 2021. So I expect early 2022 for the Cybertruck.

You can order $35k Model 3 right now. Pickup your phone and call Tesla showroom in your area. It's available off the menu and via phone order. It's been that way for more than a year. But I don't know why anyone would bother when Model 3 SR+ is only $2,990 more at $37,990 and is so much better. Model 3 SR+ is so good that I'm debating whether I should buy it and just drive it until my Cybertruck is ready and trade it in at that time.

 

[ponyo]

Just finished listening to Tesla Q3 earnings conference call. I'm so happy. I've never been so optimistic about Tesla future than I am now. Zero worries about putting my entire life savings in Tesla. I've never been more certain Tesla is going to win in the long run. What an amazing company and amazing CEO.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Sad news guise......the total first year production of the 2022 Hummer Edition 1 is completely sold out:

The Hummer EV Edition 1 is sold out and it'll be years before other trims arrive

2022 GMC Hummer EV Edition 1 is a decked out electric truck, but the trims aren't too bad either.

www.autoblog.com

Sorry I had to break it to you, but Im sure we will find a way to make it .....somehow.



As for the Edition 1, it started $112,595 before it was sold out. Customers are to expect them in fall 2021. It has transparent roof panels, a 350-mile range, launch control and the headline-grabbing output of 1,000 horsepower and 11,500 pound-feet of torque (again, with the aforementioned torque figure caveat). GMC hasn't said whether there will be additional examples offered later, or an equivalent trim. We're expecting many of the Edition 1 features will at least be available as options on the EV3X.

 

[FelixDeCat]

And speaking of cars......


Hertz gets DIP financing so the stock rallies 150%. I think that is rather stupid. DIP financing means they borrowed another $1,650,000,000 in 1st lien priority financing that supersedes all other debt and equity. So they go deeper in debt as they liquidate.

Does that make the company 150% more valuable today? If you assume they can dispose of all cars (the new/used car markets are very strong right now), keep creditors at bay until they operate profitably again with newly issued equity to payoff debtholders including the new DIP loan. Seems like a very long shot existing shareholders get a dime.

What I want to know is how they have staved off deslisting for so long now.

Well imagine that! Hertz shot up from $1.10 to nearly $3.00 on the DIP news and its back at $1.64....and will likely fall further back to where it started. I have no financial interest in the stock either long or short. Seriously though, unless they can make money in the business they are in, then the company and its shares are worthless.

Sure you can argue there are lots of companies that dont make money and still do well, but that is because they have a successful business model and they are sacrificing profits for continued growth in a growing sector. In that case you pay up for growth.

Look at Zoom. The stock has been on fire due to the pandemic. It got overvalued earlier this year and fell 20-30% in 48 hours. If you recall, I had a good laugh at shareholder expense thinking that was the end. Thankfully I did not short the stock (never short a growth stock unless its just for a quick buck, they tend to go back up over time). The shareholders who hung in there are having the last laugh as the stock went back up to all time highs.

 

[ponyo]

Dave with very good review and breakdown of Tesla's 3rd quarter earnings. And to think, Tesla is just getting started. I see clear path to total domination by Tesla this decade. Future is so exciting. And the social media is buzz this morning with Full Self Driving (FSD) beta Tesla dropped to early select testers yesterday. Successful working FSD will transform transportation as we know it forever. I predict successful FSD will easily add trillion dollar in market cap to Tesla in the future sometime in this decade.

 

[ponyo]

Tesla Full Self Driving (FSD) beta video footages. It's like watching the beginning of Skynet from Terminator movies. It's happening.

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/jftx5l

 

[TXHokie]

Elon just said FSD is out and FSD price goes up by $2k Monday. My Cybertruck pre-order now has appreciated by $3k and I still won't see it for a while.

 

[dasherHampton]

Hindsight is 20/20 but when T being under $27 was the right time to load up.

If they string together some good numbers it'll surely go back up over $30, maybe even to $35.

 

[dasherHampton]

Took advantage of SPCE dropping today to sell low puts (14 DEC).

 

[PlanetJosh]

Anyone think Electra Meccanica could work for day trading? Symbol SOLO, closed at $2.64 Friday. To make a little over $250 usd on a single buy/sell per day based on hoping the stock goes up 0.03 (3 cents) at some point during the day you'd need tens of thousands of dollars to buy. (Edit: about $25K) But some people here have that so it's probably not that big of a deal overall for this forum.

They make the one occupant 3 wheeled electric cars, named the same as their ticker symbol.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Anyone think Electra Meccanica could work for day trading? Symbol SOLO, closed at $2.64 Friday. To make a little over $250 usd on a single buy/sell per day based on hoping the stock goes up 0.03 (3 cents) at some point during the day you'd need tens of thousands of dollars to buy. (Edit: about $25K) But some people here have that so it's probably not that big of a deal overall for this forum.

They make the one occupant 3 wheeled electric cars, named the same as their ticker symbol.

Never heard of them, but this is what I've gleaned:

Canadian EV company (2 seater transportation) with $205M market cap, 77M shares outstanding. Earnings due 11/9/20, last reported earnings larger than expected loss of 20 cents a share vs 13 cent estimated loss.

Usually stocks like these survive on secondary offerings (dilution of your investment). Sure enough the last one was back in June - 10M shares at $2.00. Current price is $2.64.

The November call options pay .35 cents per contract, meaning you would get $35 for each 100 shares you agree to sell at $2.50, however if you bought at 2.64 you have to account for a .14 cents per share loss.

Looks like a day trade to me, unless you have a good understanding of the company and think its worth holding.

No real revenue growth but losses are on the rise:




Not sure whats going on here. Probably refreshing the product line to remain relevant, thus the outsized losses. It looks they are also planning to expand into the US but that might mean more stock offerings. An article points out that small vehicles have never sold well in the US, however I know Styker has managed to survive. Stryker is the 3 wheel motorcyle and this is a 3 wheel EV, so the comparison might not be the same.

Seems like a really long shot, but the share price did hit $6 at one time. Who knows.

 

[ponyo]

It turns out GM doesn't even have one working prototype of the Hummer EV truck. All the videos of it in action are prerendered videos. And GM is talking about delivering Hummer to customers next year. I don't know GM... That sounds highly optimistic. So when is GM planning to build and test this vehicle? It sounds like GM took a play out of Trevor Milton's playbook. Maybe GM and Nikola are really match made in heaven.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Pre-rendered? You mean like CGI? Or using a gas powered model?

 

[dasherHampton]

What do you think the odds are that Boeing falls below $150 by 11/27? It's at $167.33 right now.

Some friends of mine want to go gambling sometime in the next few weeks. I never take more than $500 anyway and I was thinking I might start the betting early by selling a BA put. The 11/27 150 puts are going for $390 right now.

I could gamble courtesy of Boeing.

 

[ponyo]

Pre-rendered? You mean like CGI? Or using a gas powered model?

CGI. GM only has nonworking display vehicle. I'm not doubting GM will eventually deliver the Hummer EV truck.

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...e-hummer-ev-yet-but-its-battery-tech-is-ready

 

[woodman1999]

Anybody got any thoughts on how to get direct exposure to China, either via sing stock ownership or mutual funds?

 

[ponyo]

I'm predicting Biden victory in November. And Biden said climate change is number 1 issue facing humanity.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/joe-biden-climate-change-is-number-one-issue-facing-humanity.html

I think Tesla will do very well no matter if Trump or Biden is president. But if Biden is to be believed, Tesla and clean energy stocks like solar could do extremely well under Biden's presidency.

 

[dasherHampton]

Anybody got any thoughts on how to get direct exposure to China, either via sing stock ownership or mutual funds?

I used to buy Chinese stocks listed on the NYSE. They all seem quite a bit more expensive now. Probably the RobinHood crowd.

For instance - I used to trade BILI around $12-$15. It's currently sits at $44.44. I wish I would have held JD in the high 20's. It's now at $81.34. Not too log ago NIO traded under $5. Current price? $27.15. Of the stocks I used to deal with only IQ seems to still be languishing around the same level. It's at $23.19; not a horrible bet.

I don't buy individual Chinese stocks at the moment but I still sell puts occasionally. So there's always a possibility I might get back into Chinese stock ownership involuntarily. I usually only sell very safe options (I have current NIO puts at $17.5).

There was quite a bit of talk about delisting Chinese stocks earlier this year but it seems to have died down. Still - check it out to be safe.

Here's an article about Chinese ETFs:

Best China ETFs

The best China ETFs are CNYA, KBA, and ASHR.

www.investopedia.com

There are a lot more out there.

 

[woodman1999]

Appreciate the above dasher. MFs and ETFs maybe the way to go

 

[zinfamous]

It turns out GM doesn't even have one working prototype of the Hummer EV truck. All the videos of it in action are prerendered videos. And GM is talking about delivering Hummer to customers next year. I don't know GM... That sounds highly optimistic. So when is GM planning to build and test this vehicle? It sounds like GM took a play out of Trevor Milton's playbook. Maybe GM and Nikola are really match made in heaven.

Maybe Hummer EV is the next Star Citizen.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I'm predicting Biden victory in November. And Biden said climate change is number 1 issue facing humanity.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/joe-biden-climate-change-is-number-one-issue-facing-humanity.html

I think Tesla will do very well no matter if Trump or Biden is president. But if Biden is to be believed, Tesla and clean energy stocks like solar could do extremely well under Biden's presidency.

Biden would seem likely but anything can happen. Whoever takes it needs to be decisive so there is no drama about who won and we do not have some sort of crises like the year 2000.

I think government will continue to be divided after the election and more stimulus talks will be bogged down in politics, causing the QQQ's to hit a low of $222-245, currently $284. Things may change after inauguration.

If Trump wins, the dems will refuse to cooperate as usual on anything he wants to do. If Biden wins and the either the senate or house is controlled by republicans, they will under constant pressure to give in to demands from dems by the media....being that the media wants to run the country. The media wants to govern and the media wants to be the supreme court.

 

[ponyo]

Bought small starter position in Lemonade (LMND). Earnings are on Nov 11th and 33% insider lockup expires next day on Nov 12th so I'm being cautious as I research more into this company. But I like I what see so far. Buying now feels very much like being venture capitalist as this company is very young and will likely lose money for the next 3-5 years as it grows its business. But the insurance market it's involved in is very big ($5 trillion market) and ripe for disruption.

 

[ponyo]

Biden would seem likely but anything can happen. However takes it needs to be decisive so there is no drama about who won and we do not have some sort of crises like the year 2000.

I think government will continue to be divided after the election and more stimulus talks will be bogged down in politics, causing the QQQ's to hit a low of $222-245, currently $284. Things may change after inauguration.

If Trump wins, the dems will refuse to cooperate as usual on anything he wants to do. If Biden wins and the either the senate or house is controlled by republicans, they will under constant pressure to give in to demands from dems by the media....being that the media wants to run the country. The media wants to govern and the media wants to be the supreme court.

Oddly enough you rarely ever see the media pressure dems to do anything and also ignore their shortcomings when it suits their agenda of going after republicans 24x7.

Any election related selloff is major buying opportunity. Many people have missed QQQ run up and are anxious to buy in. So any selloff will be extremely short-lived imo. You have to keep focus on what's driving this market. Just loads and loads of excess money and liquidity looking for returns and place to park that money. You have to look at the big picture.

 

[ponyo]

US stock market is becoming increasingly global. It's not just US money in US stocks anymore. Technology has made investing accessible to many around the world and many are choosing to invest in the US stock market because they don't completely trust their own market. I just heard and read that South Korean retail investors own 1% of all outstanding Tesla stock. I found that stat pretty remarkable. I think that percentage will just increase over time. South Koreans are falling in love with Tesla cars and stock. And this is just going to repeat all over the world.

 

[dullard]

Anybody got any thoughts on how to get direct exposure to China, either via sing stock ownership or mutual funds?

My exposure is through VEMAX:

VEMAX-Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares | Vanguard

investor.vanguard.com

60.9% of that fund is in China and Taiwan.

It's top 20 holdings are full of pretty well-known Chinese firms.

VEMAX-Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares | Vanguard

investor.vanguard.com