Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[ponyo]

Silver on the move. Currently $22.61. Up another $1.29. What's amazing is the huge premium on physical silver is not compressing back down even with the sharp rise in silver spot price. Extremely bullish.

https://www.apmex.com/category/1000...ardesc&f_metalname=silver&f_allAvailable=true

 

[FelixDeCat]

What are you talking about?

Its no big secret the QQQs will see nearly $290+ this year because of the Fed and over stimulation by a government that wants to stay in power or be in power.

Stocks cannot be allowed to go down. Real estate and capital gains as a whole are not allowed to be taxed. You will be a good boy/girl/etc and buy these asset bubbles with the understanding "the Fed has your back".

As we merrily devalue the currency with massive national debt in the name of inflating the stock market for the perception of "prosperity" despite a broken economy, valuations have no meaning (for now).

After the election hopefully some sanity returns, but I doubt it. We DARE not crash the housing or market bubbles. The masses will panic and politicians will scream "we must do something"!!!

So you may as well hold your nose and buy. No matter what.

ps. People that are used to getting money for nothing are hard to ween from the government's teets. Expect lots of push back.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Go sparky!!

 

[Svnla]

Jeff Bezos added "only" 13 billion USD into his net worth yesterday.

Me? 13 bucks before income tax.

 

[ponyo]

Tesla reported Q2 profit. That's 4 quarters of GAAP profit. Hello S&P 500!

Tesla S&P 500 inclusion will be my last play of the year. You think this recent TSLA earnings run was crazy? You haven't seen anything yet! Now the countdown to S&P announcement begins. When that announcement comes out, it's going to be absolute bonkers. If any of you dumb people are short TSLA, I suggest you cover before that S&P announcement. Just friendly advice.

 

[dullard]

Aren't most S&P phenomena (boosts after being included in the S&P) quite short lived? The last company added, (TDY) lost value after being added on June 22, 2020. It is now just slightly up from that point.

 

[ponyo]

Aren't most S&P phenomena (boosts after being included in the S&P) quite short lived? The last company added, (TDY) lost value after being added on June 22, 2020. It is now just slightly up from that point.

The play is to sell to the S&P index funds on the day of the inclusion. It should hit the peak price afterhours that day. S&P funds need to buy around 23 million shares of TSLA and the tracking funds that tries to beat or least keep up with the S&P 500 will probably buy another 30 million shares of TSLA. Then probably another couple million shares by the S&P 400 funds. In all, maybe 60 million shares of TSLA will be bought by the funds. Maybe more. TSLA available float is only like 140 million shares. There's going to be mad scramble to buy the shares after the announcement. And about 10% of the TSLA float is also short. Those dummies need to buy back the shares too. Unless they want to be steamrolled to death.

Never in the history of S&P has company the size of TSLA joined the index. And the unique thing about TSLA is the available float is super small compared to its mega market cap. Musk is not selling his shares. Some of the big institutional investors who supported Tesla and Elon won't sell their shares. TSLA shares will be very hard to come by. The question is how high will TSLA shares go? $2,000? $2,500? $3,000? No one can say. But I'm highly confident it will go lot higher than its all time high price of $1,795. That's a gimme.

 

[Tweak155]

The play is to sell to the S&P index funds on the day of the inclusion. It should hit the peak price afterhours that day. S&P funds need to buy around 23 million shares of TSLA and the tracking funds that tries to beat or least keep up with the S&P 500 will probably buy another 30 million shares of TSLA. Then probably another couple million shares by the S&P 400 funds. In all, maybe 60 million shares of TSLA will be bought by the funds. Maybe more. TSLA available float is only like 140 million shares. There's going to be mad scramble to buy the shares after the announcement. And about 10% of the TSLA float is also short. Those dummies need to buy back the shares too. Unless they want to be steamrolled to death.

Never in the history of S&P has company the size of TSLA joined the index. And the unique thing about TSLA is the available float is super small compared to its mega market cap. Musk is not selling his shares. Some of the big institutional investors who supported Tesla and Elon won't sell their shares. TSLA shares will be very hard to come by. The question is how high will TSLA shares go? $2,000? $2,500? $3,000? No one can say. But I'm highly confident it will go lot higher than its all time high price of $1,795. That's a gimme.

When do you think they will join the S&P? Relatively quickly now that they've had 4 straight quarters of profit?

 

[ponyo]

When do you think they will join the S&P? Relatively quickly now that they've had 4 straight quarters of profit?

I'll let you figure that out Mr. Daytrader guy. I already gave you enough info to make a fortune.

 

[dullard]

The play is to sell to the S&P index funds on the day of the inclusion. It should hit the peak price afterhours that day. S&P funds need to buy around 23 million shares of TSLA and the tracking funds that tries to beat or least keep up with the S&P 500 will probably buy another 30 million shares of TSLA. Then probably another couple million shares by the S&P 400 funds. In all, maybe 60 million shares of TSLA will be bought by the funds. Maybe more. TSLA available float is only like 140 million shares. There's going to be mad scramble to buy the shares after the announcement. And about 10% of the TSLA float is also short. Those dummies need to buy back the shares too. Unless they want to be steamrolled to death.

The part not in your description is that most if not all of the companies that have to buy TSLA for one fund, have already bought TSLA for another of their funds. Thus, it is an internal company transfer, not a purchase of float shares.

For example: Vanguard US Growth fund's 5th biggest holding is Tesla.

Vanguard Mutual Fund Profile | Vanguard

investor.vanguard.com

When Vanguard S&P500 fund

Vanguard Mutual Fund Profile | Vanguard

investor.vanguard.com

needs to buy Tesla, Vanguard has VFIAX buy TSLA shares from VWUSX.

I'm not saying that it won't have a temporary boost on the day that it gets included, I'm just saying that your play has already been played by the big players.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Clsk or QQQ?

Purchased 2900 @ 4.50 7/21 Current price $5.75 Target $6?

 

[ponyo]

The part not in your description is that most if not all of the companies that have to buy TSLA for one fund, have already bought TSLA for another of their funds. Thus, it is an internal company transfer, not a purchase of float shares.

For example: Vanguard US Growth fund's 5th biggest holding is Tesla.

Vanguard Mutual Fund Profile | Vanguard

investor.vanguard.com

When Vanguard S&P500 fund

Vanguard Mutual Fund Profile | Vanguard

investor.vanguard.com

needs to buy Tesla, Vanguard has VFIAX buy TSLA shares from VWUSX.

I'm not saying that it won't have a temporary boost on the day that it gets included, I'm just saying that your play has already been played by the big players.

You're correct some of the funds already own TSLA in other funds they can transfer from. I'm well aware of that which is why I'm lowballing the numbers of TSLA shares needed. But you're SEVERELY underestimating the impact on the share price on the day of the inclusion. You're going to see volumes that make the biggest green shoots seem ultra tiny in comparison. This is not my first rodeo playing S&P 500 adds. I played Yahoo and JDSU S&P inclusion back in the late 90s and early 2000. The buying is insane and relentless. First time I played it, it caught me way off guard. Now I know from experience. TSLA S&P 500 add is magnitudes bigger than those small adds.

 

[ponyo]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/pal...ard-energy-could-make-it-worth-trillions.html

Chamath gets it. Tesla energy will be just as big if not bigger than Tesla automotive. And Tesla automotive is going to be revolutionary because of their full autonomous driving software. That's going to be complete game changer. I know TSLA is short term expensive. But I know long term, TSLA is cheap. TSLA will have brutal selloffs in the future of 50% or more. But TSLA is a stock you buy and accumulate during those selloffs. Just like people did with Apple and Amazon. Because eventually, Tesla will overtake Apple and Amazon as the world's most valuable company in the next 20 years.

 

[FelixDeCat]

It was inevitable people would take profits. Happens all the time with momentum names. New money wants to wait for a bargain so need to rush in and payoff the new comers. Let them eat cake.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Well carp, now the whole market is going down. Thanks Elon!





j/k

 

[Roger Wilco]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/pal...ard-energy-could-make-it-worth-trillions.html

Chamath gets it. Tesla energy will be just as big if not bigger than Tesla automotive. And Tesla automotive is going to be revolutionary because of their full autonomous driving software. That's going to be complete game changer. I know TSLA is short term expensive. But I know long term, TSLA is cheap. TSLA will have brutal selloffs in the future of 50% or more. But TSLA is a stock you buy and accumulate during those selloffs. Just like people did with Apple and Amazon. Because eventually, Tesla will overtake Apple and Amazon as the world's most valuable company in the next 20 years.

I would love to buy some TSLA, but I just don't have the cash to do it at the moment. I hope you're right about 50% selloffs, as I would very much take advantage of that.

 

[Tweak155]

I would love to buy some TSLA, but I just don't have the cash to do it at the moment. I hope you're right about 50% selloffs, as I would very much take advantage of that.

Although I don't know any off hand, there are brokers that let you buy fractional shares. Not sure if there is a minimum fraction or how it works, but it lets the "little guys" in.

 

[ponyo]

AMD on fire. In a good way. Meanwhile Intel continues to burn. In a bad way.

Gold broke $1,900 /oz today. Gold is now within striking distance of its all time high price of $1,918 set in 2011. With premium, physical gold is already selling way above its all time high.

 

[zinfamous]

AMD on fire. In a good way. Meanwhile Intel continues to burn. In a bad way.

Gold broke $1,900 /oz today. Gold is now within striking distance of its all time high price of $1,918 set in 2011. With premium, physical gold is already selling way above its all time high.

yep, sold the rest of my (smallish) AMD position today. Usually, this kind of response to bad Intel news goes in the opposite direction, and earnings are coming up, which even on pretty good news for AMD sends them in the opposite direction for no rational reason. Of course, now the exact opposite will happen.

I already "lost" ~200 bucks or so buy selling very early today, but that's OK. I sold just above my target of $65 for this last half of my shares and I think I will just have to be content with my overall 850% gain on the position (purchased back in June 2015).

If it implodes after earnings and/or there is another share dilution in the next year, I might consider loading up again.

 

[FelixDeCat]

It took 18 months and were are almost there.... Gold $2000

 

[ponyo]

yep, sold the rest of my (smallish) AMD position today. Usually, this kind of response to bad Intel news goes in the opposite direction, and earnings are coming up, which even on pretty good news for AMD sends them in the opposite direction for no rational reason. Of course, now the exact opposite will happen.

I already "lost" ~200 bucks or so buy selling very early today, but that's OK. I sold just above my target of $65 for this last half of my shares and I think I will just have to be content with my overall 850% gain on the position (purchased back in June 2015).

If it implodes after earnings and/or there is another share dilution in the next year, I might consider loading up again.

You knocked it out of the park with that AMD purchase and hold. Your diamond hands paid off. I sold AMD way too soon because I didn't understand the company and its products. No research = no conviction.

 

[zinfamous]

You knocked it out of the park with that AMD purchase and hold. Your diamond hands paid off. I sold AMD way too soon because I didn't understand the company and its products. No research = no conviction.

my plan was to sell at $10 and be very content with my brilliance. That was back in 2016. I wouldn't call my success here research. I'm just very lucky and really have no idea what I'm doing.
...though, I'm still very annoyed that some past orders of $12 and $15 and $18 never went through, because those were days where it fell to within ~50c or so of those respective prices and never looked back. I should have bought them anyway.

whatever.

edited for accurate year

....and lol at ~12% gain 4 days later. hahahahahah

 

[FelixDeCat]

Got some Modena, already have a gain. Tempted to buy a long term call.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

store shelves are bare, atms around here are running out of cash.... when does it all catch up to the market?

Say what? Where are you at with bare store shelves and running out of cash at ATMs?

 

[FelixDeCat]

"Capitalism was never meant to be about maximizing short-term shareholder value." - George Zimmer

Tailored Brands is considering bankruptcy. They own Mens Warehouse and Joseph A Bank. The founder of Mens Warehouse, George Zimmer was fired in 2013 and the company nearly went bankrupt a few years later. Now this time, they are toast.

Had they kept George around, things might have been different, who knows.

Here is a really good read if you have the time. Its from 2016, but there are pearls of wisdom from a long time entrepreneur:

https://www.inc.com/magazine/201606/tom-foster/george-zimmer-mens-wearhouse.html