Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[dasherHampton]

Dividend portfolio smashed through the "35% down" barrier. Now down about 33%.

This is happening fast. I like it.

 

[ponyo]

When I hear dividend portfolio, I run the other way. Most of the time, dividend plays=value trap.

 

[dasherHampton]

Dividend portfolio smashed through the "35% down" barrier. Now down about 33%.

This is happening fast. I like it.

I wouldn't look at it like that. I could easily live off of my dividend income.

Do I need to diversify some? Probably, over the next few years. But I can blow the 15 grand I made off of my BAC option trades if I want to.

15 grand for 2-3 minutes work. Gotta love the market.

 

[ponyo]

I wouldn't look at it like that. I could easily live off of my dividend income.

Do I need to diversify some? Probably, over the next few years. But I can blow the 15 grand I made off of my BAC option trades if I want to.

15 grand for 2-3 minutes work. Gotta love the market.

I think you're taking victory lap way too early. If I remember correctly, you sold leap options which means there's plenty of time for the trade to turn against you. Not saying it will but I wouldn't be taking victory lap now on option expiring next year.

 

[dasherHampton]

This year, June and Dec.

And yes, maybe I'm dancing a bit early. But come on, man - the strike price is $16. There's no way BAC is going below $16.

Its over $25 right now.

 

[ponyo]

This year, June and Dec.

And yes, maybe I'm dancing a bit early. But come on, man - the strike price is $16. There's no way BAC is going below $16.

Its over $25 right now.

I wouldn't worry too much about June. But Dec is many months away. That's the one I would worry about. I suspect that's the one still with the fat premium. And there's a good reason for that. If we retest the low in 3rd or 4th quarter like I think we might and ultimately go lower, that $16 is not going to look and feel so safe anymore.

Never say never with options. I've seen lottery tickets print and come back from the dead to bite people in the ass. Which is why I'm still little nervous about my 19 expiring TSLA puts for this Friday and next Friday. I know I'm being stupid from risk management standpoint by not closing out those lottery puts I sold when the current remaining value is so low. I've extracted like 98-99% of the value already. Any smart option player would close it out without question. They would smack me upside the head for not doing so. But I'm not, and I might pay the price if that 1% chance happens. I've seen way crazier things in the options world.

 

[dasherHampton]

I'm just happy; I feel like I made some good plays.

I don't mean to gloat. I know that's bad form. I won't bring up BAC anymore.

 

[ponyo]

I'm just happy; I feel like I made some good plays.

I don't mean to gloat. I know that's bad form. I won't bring up BAC anymore.

You're fine. You can talk about BAC as much as you want. We're all here to talk and share opinions. All I pretty much talk about is TSLA. I'm sure people here are so sick and tired of me mentioning TSLA that they want to scream. Some might have me on ignore. But that's still not going to stop me from talking about TSLA. I post here out of boredom and also as stress reliever. And sometimes it just helps me to write it down and think out loud.

As long as you're not making fake plays, it's all good.

 

[Bitek]

You're fine. You can talk about BAC as much as you want. We're all here to talk and share opinions. All I pretty much talk about is TSLA. I'm sure people here are so sick and tired of me mentioning TSLA that they want to scream. Some might have me on ignore. But that's still not going to stop me from talking about TSLA. I post here out of boredom and also as stress reliever. And sometimes it just helps me to write it down and think out loud.

As long as you're not making fake plays, it's all good.

I'd just like my TSLA shares I sold at $600 back.

Otherwise I got what I have, some cash left, just sitting on it not really sure if I want to commit to anything. Not an options trader, so just waiting on a good deal or some clarity of direction.

Overall, portfolio is up a few% from Feb high, and I like what I have over the long term for more growth. I'm sure some traders could have made a lot of money if they did it well, but I'm ok with what I did.

 

[ponyo]

Holy crap! TSLA made a profit in Q1. Their auto gross margin was 25.5% which is insane given the low Q1 output. That's huge jump. I need to get back into this stock. The gross margin jump has crazy implications and greater than anything I could've dream of at this point. TSLA is going over $1,000 for sure now. This is huge.

 

[Juiblex]

In March, I bought Boeing (BA) at $95 and sold at $155 a share.
in April, I bought Occidental (OXY) at $12.86 and sold at $16.20 a share.

Any suggestions for May?

I'm thinking about just holding my money at this point. I feel the economy will get worse before it gets better and revisit in June.

 

[ponyo]

I need to settle down. I'm still in shock over Tesla Q1 results. IMO, this Q1 was way superior to their 2019 Q4 result which caused the run to $968. If not for the coronavirus, TSLA would be trading $1,000 to $1,200 on this result. What their gross margin is implying is once this coronavirus crisis is over, TSLA is going to print money. They're going to dominate so hard. Unbelieve results. I still can't believe the gross margin on that low sales number. It's unreal and insane!

The 25.5% gross margin is implying Model 3 made at Shanghai plant has over 30% gross margin. Even though Shanghai plant just came online this quarter and is still ramping. And Model Y has positive gross margin even though they just introduced it and haven't even begun ramping. This proves TSLA deserves its tech multiple instead of automotive industry multiple. This Q1 result is going to change everyone's thinking about TSLA going forward. All the institution investors have to be blown away at the margin. I'm serious. Today result changes everything. TSLA will no longer viewed as a car company. It's going to be the new tech leader.

 

[JEDI]

If we retest the low in 3rd or 4th quarter like I think we might and ultimately go lower, that $16 is not going to look and feel so safe anymore.

retest lows in 3rd or 4th Q?
i was thinking the slide starts when Spy reaches 300. (it's at 293 after todays big run)

then again, i thought the re-rest was going to start by now with the tech giants reporting this week.

 

[dasherHampton]

In March, I bought Boeing (BA) at $95 and sold at $155 a share.
in April, I bought Occidental (OXY) at $12.86 and sold at $16.20 a share.

Any suggestions for May?

I'm thinking about just holding my money at this point. I feel the economy will get worse before it gets better and revisit in June.

It's really, really hard to tell right now. I think all plays have to be reactive at this point. Follow the news and when you see something pop check it out.

Your last two picks seemed to work out solid. What criteria did you use on those? Stick with what works.

 

[Juiblex]

Your last two picks seemed to work out solid. What criteria did you use on those? Stick with what works.

My criteria (in no particular order):

1) Looked at the moving average over the last 3 months to see if the stock is oversold. With viruses just about everything is... That was not hard.
2) Looked to see if they were companies which have been around for awhile. Most established companies have gone through rough patches so I stuck with those.
3) Looked for something that had dipped a bit more than the current stock price by looking over the last month average. Take for example, OXY had been in the $11's the few weeks prior to buying it at $12.86 and was in an upswing. I don't buy on the down swing as it might drop even more. I sort of wait for it to settle and buy when it starts climbing up a tad bit.
4) To stay safe, pick something that had a dividend just in case I was stuck holding it. Most companies have slashed their dividends but whatever, still looked for it.

 

[JEDI]

unemployment #s come out tomorrow.
another up day, no matter what the #s are?

 

[cytg111]

Anyone else picked up a little Gilead before today?
Got two lottery tickets, one Gilead and the other Norwegian.

Common baby, seven or eleven, seven or eleven.... actually make that seven AND eleven .

 

[FelixDeCat]

unemployment #s come out tomorrow.
another up day, no matter what the #s are?

The QQQs were up 5% when you add in the after-hours runup. Right now the futures are down .50%. Apple will dictate.

 

[TXHokie]

Bought TSLA at $620 and rode it all the way down to $370. Glad to have held on for dear life but I like their cars and stored energy business and here's hoping Elon will eventually pay for my Cybertruck.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Anyone else picked up a little Gilead before today?
Got two lottery tickets, one Gilead and the other Norwegian.

Common baby, seven or eleven, seven or eleven.... actually make that seven AND eleven .

If you hold them long enough, you will win, especially Norwegian. Personally I like Corona Cruise Lines.

 

[JEDI]

Anyone else picked up a little Gilead before today?
Got two lottery tickets, one Gilead and the other Norwegian.

Common baby, seven or eleven, seven or eleven.... actually make that seven AND eleven .

why do you like ncl?

 

[dasherHampton]

What's the general consensus on Ford here?

Take 5 grand you can afford to lose, buy 1000 shares, and put them way back in the corner of the deep freeze for however long it takes?

Or is Ford on a long, slow decline to oblivion?

 

[ponyo]

What's the general consensus on Ford here?

Take 5 grand you can afford to lose, buy 1000 shares, and put them way back in the corner of the deep freeze for however long it takes?

Or is Ford on a long, slow decline to oblivion?

Ford=Sears. Tesla=Amazon. Buying Ford is like buying Sears. It's headed to zero. Value trap.

 

[cytg111]

why do you like ncl?

Air . You know about to go bip up. Potential payday or lose it all.

 

[FelixDeCat]

What's the general consensus on Ford here?

Take 5 grand you can afford to lose, buy 1000 shares, and put them way back in the corner of the deep freeze for however long it takes?

Or is Ford on a long, slow decline to oblivion?

Everyone who buys Ford usually regrets it, but like you said if you hold it until things are good again, you might make a point or two but dont expect much.

Personally I was looking at Hertz (HTZ). The other day they said they would miss their lease payment on $19 billion in car notes. The stock cratered on bankruptcy fears.

In 2008 they were in a similar situation and the stock went below a dollar. My brother gambled and bought 1000 shares when it got that cheap. Hertz got waivers from lenders back then and within 9 months the stock went from less than $1 to near $18!!!!

Im not saying history will repeat, they could actually go under this time and stock goes to ZERO. But you can bet lots of people will gamble again if it gets that cheap with money than afford to lose.