Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[ponyo]

CEO downgrades his own stock. I love Elon but market is not going to understand what he's saying. His temper tantrum is hurting his supporters and shareholders. Institutional investors will vote with their wallet and sell the stock.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I saw the battery car company was falling fast and bought a 780 put for $245. Sold for $515 a few minutes later.

Thanks Elon!

That $245 "investment" is now worth $7,500 in just 24 hours.

Only in America!

 

[FelixDeCat]

CEO downgrades his own stock. I love Elon but market is not going to understand what he's saying. His temper tantrum is hurting his supporters and shareholders. Institutional investors will vote with their wallet and sell the stock.

I know in the past he has claimed the shares were overvalued. Surely there is a playbook for this, like a rebound next week.

Perhaps he was trying to steal Einhorns thunder.... "You want to see this stock fall? I can make it really fall!"

 

[ponyo]

I know in the past he has claimed the shares were overvalued. Surely there is a playbook for this, like a rebound next week.

Perhaps he was trying to steal Einhorns thunder.... "You want to see this stock fall? I can make it really fall!"

He's angry about the shutdown. If you read his tweet, he's talking about selling everything he owns, including his house. He's not serious. But he's frustrated. He's saying why work? If everything remain closed and shutdown, then TSLA shares are too expensive. That's his message. Open the economy back up. But he's going by this the wrong way and hurting the very people who support him and supporting shortsellers and others who want him and Tesla to fail. I'm disappointed in Elon. There's going to be renewed cry to remove him as the CEO of TSLA.

 

[ponyo]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/01/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-says-stock-price-is-too-high-shares-fall.html

 

[dasherHampton]

Predictable selloff to begin may.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Time for more fed stimulus.

 

[JEDI]

Thanks Elon!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1256239815256797184

live by the Tesla sword, die by the Tesla sword.

 

[JEDI]

Predictable selloff to begin may.

now will this be the beginning of the re-test of it's recent low?
or just a blip and SPY will break the $300 resistance lvl next week?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Time for more fed stimulus.

Time for people to get their asses back to work. I know a couple who already said its easier to be on the dole than be outside in the heat digging ditches. I have worked every day at the office since this thing began. Sure there are only four to seven of of us vs the 50 or so in our branch. But If I can show up every day, on time for work at the office, even during a pandemic - they can too.

For those that have no job - look for one!!! There are plenty if you want to work for Amazon or Walmart. And those ditches are going to dig themselves. Get a shovel and get busy.

If we spend any more money it should be on government work projects like we had in the 1930s. Hard, manual labor. No more free money to sit on ass.

 

[IronWing]

Time for people to get their asses back to work. I know a couple who already said its easier to be on the dole than be outside in the heat digging ditches. I have worked every day at the office since this thing began. Sure there are only four to seven of of us vs the 50 or so in our branch. But If I can show up every day, on time for work at the office, even during a pandemic - they can too.

For those that have no job - look for one!!! There are plenty if you want to work for Amazon or Walmart. And those ditches are going to dig themselves. Get a shovel and get busy.

If we spend any more money its going to be government work projects like we had in the 1930s. Hard, manual labor. No more free money to sit on ass.

I’ve worked in an office and I’ve teleworked and let me tell you, telework is better.

 

[manlymatt83]

Does anyone own any IJS/SLYV or DGS/DLS?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Does anyone own any IJS/SLYV or DGS/DLS?

I've had money in small cap funds before. Usually its a good bet long term, but large caps get all the attention so thats where my bi-weekly 401K deposits go, averaging in over time. The bulk of the existing fund is in institutional junk bonds.

 

[manlymatt83]

I've had money in small cap funds before. Usually its a good bet long term, but large caps get all the attention so thats where my bi-weekly 401K deposits go, averaging in over time. The bulk of the existing fund is in institutional junk bonds.

I am trying to figure out where to put my DLS/DGS allocation (<10% of my portfolio) -- tax advantaged or taxable? On one side of the fence, they pay high dividends, but on the other side of the fence, the dividends are mostly qualified, and if I held in taxable I'd be eligible for the foreign tax credit I believe.

 

[manlymatt83]

One more question —

a wash sale only applies if a lot is sold at a loss, right? So if I have an equity with 10 different lots and only one of them is showing a loss, if I sell 9 of the lots at a small profit, I am not at risk of a wash sale as long as I don’t sell the 10th lot currently showing a loss, right?

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Heh, so about a year ago I put in a few hundred$ of fun money into a marijuana index fund called MJ.

The results have been shit-tacular over the last year, but I am still holding it partially just out of curiosity of how it will do during this pandemic. You would think similar to alcohol that people would be getting their fix while being forced to stay at home all the time heh.

Also as far as bailouts, if our federal government still finds it to be illegal... something tells me they wont be receiving much stimulus other than a middle finger.

 

[ponyo]

I sold all my TSLA stock and bought back the July $700 puts I sold for good sized loss this morning. Normally I wouldn't do this but Elon Musk and Warren Buffett actions kind of spooked me. Elon is about as straight shooter you're going to get. If he says something, he means it and he backs it up. I know it's not the first time Elon has said TSLA stock price was too high. He has said it publicly like 4 other times. Once in 2013. Twice in 2014. Once more in 2017. And then last Friday. Elon also said he was going to sell his house. He has 7 houses. He listed 2 of his houses on Zillow last night. So I'm going to take Elon at face value if he says TSLA stock is too high given the current conditions.

And Saturday, it was revealed Warren Buffett sold his entire airline stakes. He took over $4 billion loss on that sale. Buffett said he made a mistake buying the airlines so he corrected it by selling it all. That got my attention and massive respect from me. But he also said nothing can stop America longterm. Yet he's not buying yet. So he doesn't think we've bottomed and this recent market move up is just a headfake. If he thought otherwise, he would've bought instead of selling and raising more cash. Buffett is not straight shooter like Musk. So it's more watch what he does, rather than what he says with Buffett. And Buffett is not buying.

 

[ultimatebob]

I sold all my TSLA stock and bought back the July $700 puts I sold for good sized loss this morning. Normally I wouldn't do this but Elon Musk and Warren Buffett actions kind of spooked me. Elon is about as straight shooter you're going to get. If he says something, he means it and he backs it up. I know it's not the first time Elon has said TSLA stock price was too high. He has said it publicly like 4 other times. Once in 2013. Twice in 2014. Once more in 2017. And then last Friday. Elon also said he was going to sell his house. He has 7 houses. He listed 2 of his houses on Zillow last night. So I'm going to take Elon at face value if he says TSLA stock is too high given the current conditions.

And Saturday, it was revealed Warren Buffett sold his entire airline stakes. He took over $4 billion loss on that sale. Buffett said he made a mistake buying the airlines so he corrected it by selling it all. That got my attention and massive respect from me. But he also said nothing can stop America longterm. Yet he's not buying yet. So he doesn't think we've bottomed and this recent market move up is just a headfake. If he thought otherwise, he would've bought instead of selling and raising more cash. Buffett is not straight shooter like Musk. So it's more watch what he does, rather than what he says with Buffett. And Buffett is not buying.

Heh, that's funny. I only sold about half of my TSLA position. Since it basically doubled since I bought it, I figured that I'm playing with the house's money at this point. Even if Elon decides to change his gender and rename himself to Martha Washington tomorrow, I'm not going to lose any money from this.

So, who's the #1 Tesla fan around here now, eh?

 

[ponyo]

Heh, that's funny. I only sold about half of my TSLA position. Since it basically doubled since I bought it, I figured that I'm playing with the house's money at this point. Even if Elon decides to change his gender and rename himself to Martha Washington tomorrow, I'm not going to lose any money from this.

So, who's the #1 Tesla fan around here now, eh?

So now you own 1 share instead of 2? I sold TSLA shares in my trading account. I still own Jan '21 $300 call and kept $600 July puts I sold along with all the May puts I sold. And I still own full TSLA shares in my retirement accounts. So I'm 100% sure I still have way more shares and money in TSLA than you.

 

[dasherHampton]

Hmmm...

That turned around quick.

 

[KB]

And Saturday, it was revealed Warren Buffett sold his entire airline stakes. He took over $4 billion loss on that sale. Buffett said he made a mistake buying the airlines so he corrected it by selling it all. That got my attention and massive respect from me. But he also said nothing can stop America longterm. Yet he's not buying yet. So he doesn't think we've bottomed and this recent market move up is just a headfake. If he thought otherwise, he would've bought instead of selling and raising more cash. Buffett is not straight shooter like Musk. So it's more watch what he does, rather than what he says with Buffett. And Buffett is not buying.

Buffet sold all of his airline stocks and then said he would never fly commercial again. Well Buffett can afford to fly private but few people can. I think Buffet is late to sell and premature to write off the airlines. He has made some big mistakes in the past, IBM being one of them I can think of offhand. I am watching the airlines, but don't yet know the right price to get in. I think they will get a bailout and right-size the ship eventually, recovering like they did after 2008 crushed them.

Interestingly many are complaining of full flights.

Full Flight Outrage: Who Is To Blame?

People are outraged when they're finding themselves on full flights nowadays, given that social distancing is impossible. Who is to blame?

onemileatatime.com

And Southwest says the worst is over.

Southwest Airlines CEO says worst of pandemic over for company: ‘I don’t think June will be a good month...hopefully it will be a bit better than May’

Southwest Airline CEO Gary Kelly said Sunday he think the airline is past the worst period of the coronavirus pandemic.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[ponyo]

Buffet sold all of his airline stocks and then said he would never fly commercial again. Well Buffett can afford to fly private but few people can. I think Buffet is late to sell and premature to write off the airlines. He has made some big mistakes in the past, IBM being one of them I can think of offhand. I am watching the airlines, but don't yet know the right price to get in. I think they will get a bailout and right-size the ship eventually, recovering like they did after 2008 crushed them.

Interestingly many are complaining of full flights.

Full Flight Outrage: Who Is To Blame?

People are outraged when they're finding themselves on full flights nowadays, given that social distancing is impossible. Who is to blame?

onemileatatime.com

And Southwest says the worst is over.

Southwest Airlines CEO says worst of pandemic over for company: ‘I don’t think June will be a good month...hopefully it will be a bit better than May’

Southwest Airline CEO Gary Kelly said Sunday he think the airline is past the worst period of the coronavirus pandemic.

www.marketwatch.com

Maybe Buffett's sell will mark the bottom for airline stocks. Maybe not. But I agree with all his reasons for selling. Airlines already received government bailout couple weeks ago, and they're going to need another $10-$20 billion later this year. They can't keep going to the government so they will either have to sell more stock or go to the commercial paper market. They're going have to pay all the massive loans back eventually which might take a decade or two. So there's no upside for very long time.

Meanwhile, there's going to be huge decrease in business travel for many years. That's the real killer. Business travelers are the most profitable flyers for the airlines. Leisure travelers were always the nice icing on the cake but can't make up the loss of business travelers. And it's going to take years for leisure travel to come back just like business travel. Which means there are still way too many planes. These airlines are going to have to shrink bigtime. And they still have to payback all those massive loans they just took out to survive while shrinking. This is going to be the lost decade for the airlines. Buffett sees this clearly so he bailed. And this is a guy who invests for longterm. That should scare you if you're thinking about investing in airlines.

Buffett is never going to fly commercial. Why would he fly commercial when he owns Netjets? Rich people I know who don't own their own private planes fly Netjets.

Buffett has been addicted to stock buyback companies for years. I think that's why he bought IBM and then later sold it when it became clear IBM was going to stop their stock buyback. It might also explain why he's bailing on the airlines since they won't buyback stocks for very long time. Decades most likely.

And as for the current flights being full, you're going to get that when the airlines cancel like 50 flights and put everyone on one or two remaining flights. That's no way to make money and will just piss off everyone still flying.

And I agree with Southwest. Worst is likely over. But when your sales are down like 90% and then recover to being down like 70%, is that much better? You're still dead.

 

[brianmanahan]

Does anyone own any IJS/SLYV or DGS/DLS?

yeah, my entire roth IRA US allocation is in IJS

i kinda regret it right now LOL

but i won't need the money for at least 20 years so i'll stick with what i've got and keep investing.

another option is VBR, it's still small value but less so than the other options

 

[FelixDeCat]

One more question —

a wash sale only applies if a lot is sold at a loss, right? So if I have an equity with 10 different lots and only one of them is showing a loss, if I sell 9 of the lots at a small profit, I am not at risk of a wash sale as long as I don’t sell the 10th lot currently showing a loss, right?

Loss sale accounting can get tricky. Ever since I've been trading online starting around 1998, the customer was responsible for keeping up with wash sales and properly reporting them to the IRS.

Unfortunately certain securities are still not covered even if you can buy them on the stock exchange - like the Gold / Silver Trust ETFs (SLV/GLD) **and** options on those trusts. They also dont report exchange traded notes like REML. So if you trade those, you STILL have to report all buys and sells on a PER TRADE basis. Sucks!!

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Unfortunately certain securities are still not covered even if you can buy them on the stock exchange - like the Gold / Silver Trust ETFs (SLV/GLD) **and** options on those trusts. They also dont report exchange traded notes like REML. So if you trade those, you STILL have to report all buys and sells on a PER TRADE basis. Sucks!!

I don't trade these, but I've read PM ETFs are exempt from wash sale rules. On the flip side, you're always taxed at income rate no matter how long you've been holding. Theoretically something like GBTC should also be exempt, but I'm not sure.