Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

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KB

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,397
384
126
dasherHampton said:
What's the general consensus on Ford here?

Take 5 grand you can afford to lose, buy 1000 shares, and put them way back in the corner of the deep freeze for however long it takes?

Or is Ford on a long, slow decline to oblivion?
Click to expand...

I don't think its going to 0, as I don't think everyone will be driving a tesla. They still have the best selling truck out there and gas prices aren't going up anytime soon. The problem with Ford is its stock price will never go anywhere. They never buyback shares and they are more beholden to the UAW than to shareholders. The only business flexibility they have is to cut dividends, which they do quit often.
 
KB

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,397
384
126
FelixDeCat said:
Everyone who buys Ford usually regrets it, but like you said if you hold it until things are good again, you might make a point or two but dont expect much.

Personally I was looking at Hertz (HTZ). The other day they said they would miss their lease payment on $19 billion in car notes. The stock cratered on bankruptcy fears.

In 2008 they were in a similar situation and the stock went below a dollar. My brother gambled and bought 1000 shares when it got that cheap. Hertz got waivers from lenders back then and within 9 months the stock went from less than $1 to near $18!!!!

Im not saying history will repeat, they could actually go under this time and stock goes to ZERO. But you can bet lots of people will gamble again if it gets that cheap with money than afford to lose.
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I am watching HTZ too, but I can't believe they are still at $4 when bankruptcy is a real possibility.
Maybe everyone is thinking the same thing I am. Nobody wants to take $19 billion in used cars, so debt holders are likely to make a deal. The CFO is also looking for a bailout, which they may get. I am waiting for closer to 1 - 2
 
ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
KB said:
I don't think its going to 0, as I don't think everyone will be driving a tesla. They still have the best selling truck out there and gas prices aren't going up anytime soon. The problem with Ford is its stock price will never go anywhere. They never buyback shares and they are more beholden to the UAW than to shareholders. The only business flexibility they have is to cut dividends, which they do quit often.
Click to expand...
Ford is not going to $0 soon because the Fed just bailed out Ford by buying their junk bond. But they will keep bleeding and will eventually go to $0. Just like GM will. These are zombie companies just like Sears was. Tesla Cybertruck is going to eat into Ford truck sales big time. And without their truck sales, Ford is toast. Ford credit and financing arm is going to kill them too. Low gas price is not going to stop the EV revolution. It's going to take WW3 to stop Tesla and the EV revolution.
 
ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Sold 2 more TSLA July 17 $700 puts and 2 more TSLA July 17 $600 put. Collected another $14,300 in put premium on top of $14,046 I collected yesterday. So that's $28,346 in put premiums for July. I'm now on the hook for 700 shares of TSLA.
 
ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Sold another TSLA July 17 $600 put. And sold May 01 $800 put expiring tomorrow for $8.34. And bought 100 shares of TSLA at $822.
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,181
2,042
126
I saw the battery car company was falling fast and bought a 780 put for $245. Sold for $515 a few minutes later.

Thanks Elon!
 
Mr.IncrediblyBored

Mr.IncrediblyBored

Lifer
Jun 18, 2000
11,123
700
126
I forgot I had Ford in my IRA. Apparently I bought some around $15. Now basically worthless. At least I got some dividend income from it over the years.
 
ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
I didn't see that sell the news for TSLA coming. Oh well. I wanted to own TSLA again.
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,181
2,042
126
ponyo said:
I didn't see that sell the news for TSLA coming. Oh well. I wanted to own TSLA again.
Click to expand...

If I had a nickel for everytime I got burned selling puts...

The last incident was back in early April. I sold a boatload of $5 puts that expired in one day on NLY when it was $4.65. Then the market started freaking about something and the stock fell to $4.15.

I sold them short at $.60 and covered at .75. By Friday expiration they cost $1. I was thinking "whew, that was close!"

What pisses me off is that the following week the f'n stock hit $6.50!

Damn stock market....so unfair. ;)
 
ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
FelixDeCat said:
If I had a nickel for everytime I got burned selling puts...

The last incident was back in early April. I sold a boatload of $5 puts that expired in one day on NLY when it was $4.65. Then the market started freaking about something and the stock fell to $4.15.

I sold them short at $.60 and covered at .75. By Friday expiration they cost $1. I was thinking "whew, that was close!"

What pisses me off is that the following week the f'n stock hit $6.50!

Damn stock market....so unfair. ;)
Click to expand...
I've had good luck selling cash covered puts and covered calls. Occasionally I get burned but casinos don't always win either. If I get assigned, then I'll just sell covered calls.
 
JEDI

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
30,160
3,300
126
Amazon is falling after hours after missing earnings.
lol.. all the other stocks that missed this month got a pass, but not Amazon.
qqq falling 5% after hrs
 
IronWing

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,053
26,938
136
I just did a quick check on local car rental rates as I had a car in the shop starting just prior to the travel collapse through mid April so I have a good idea of where rates were throughout the crisis. Rental rates are lower now than in early April and down 50% from the pre-collapse rates. I wouldn't be buying rental companies quite yet.
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,181
2,042
126
IronWing said:
I just did a quick check on local car rental rates as I had a car in the shop starting just prior to the travel collapse through mid April so I have a good idea of where rates were throughout the crisis. Rental rates are lower now than in early April and down 50% from the pre-collapse rates. I wouldn't be buying rental companies quite yet.
Click to expand...

www.businessinsider.com

Car-rental giant Hertz is reportedly preparing for a potential bankruptcy after it missed lease payments

Hertz laid off 10,000 employees — more than 25% of its total workforce — in April. Now it's reportedly preparing for a worst-case scenario.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,181
2,042
126
Mr.IncrediblyBored said:
I forgot I had Ford in my IRA. Apparently I bought some around $15. Now basically worthless. At least I got some dividend income from it over the years.
Click to expand...

At this point you have to consider is it worth keeping as a lottery ticket hoping to make a buck or two, or sell it now at the low figuring Ford will go bankrupt.

If you remember, GM and Chrysler went bellyup in 2008 but Ford did not. Instead Ford drew down its revolvers and built up a cash cushion to make it through the crises. As was the case then and now, nobody knew how long it was going to last. Ford eventually paid off all the loans and was making gobs of profit years later.

But they would not have been able to recover without big concessions from the UAW including pay freezes and lower tier paid workers to reduce costs. By 2012 they resumed the dividend and paid big bonuses to workers. The stock rose from $1.50 to $18.50

Ford has again drew down its credit lines to weather this storm. We will see if the same strategy works again.
 
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FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,181
2,042
126
s0me0nesmind1 said:
Doesn't surprise me.

I don't know how they went from "manufacturing hell" at a loss to turning significant profits overnight.
Click to expand...

Well the 'surprise' profit was some surprise alright. We will see if the company explains and defends its accounting methods.

If they are successful I think $900 is not out of the question. If they are not or remain silent, who knows where it goes.
 
ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Chanos and Einhorn have been so wrong on TSLA for so long. Both shorted in the $200 range. They're desperate. Einhorn is down another 22% this year and even lost 1.1% in April when everything went up. With Einhorn, you lose money in good times and bad. They always bring up TSLA accounting like they know what they're talking about. These guys are clueless. They will be talking about TSLA accounting when TSLA is $5,000.

TSLA '20 Q1 quarter was the most impressive quarter I've seen from TSLA. It was mind blowingly great. It's so good, I'm now willing to pay up to get back in TSLA. Tesla would've had record quarter and qualified for S&P 500 if not for the coronavirus shutdown. That's beyond unbelievable considering Q1 is always the weakest quarter for TSLA and all automakers. It just shows you TSLA is gaining steam and EV revolution is picking up pace. I'm more certain than ever TSLA is going to be the biggest winner and the best company along with Amazon coming out of this coronavirus recovery. But Amazon is worth $1.2 trillion. It's going to be hard for Amazon to hit $2 trillion. Tesla is only worth $141 billion. It's going to be relatively easy for TSLA to double and hit $300 billion market cap.
 
IEC

IEC

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Jun 10, 2004
14,332
4,926
136
Holy !?#@!

I thought for sure I was going to lose money on my TSLA $690p 5/1

Instead, it hit my sell limit and I made more than triple my gamble...

Thanks Elon!
 
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