Strategy Analytics: Global Smartphone Shipments Tumble 38 Percent YoY in February 2020
Global smartphone shipments tumbled 38 percent year-on-year in the month of February, 2020. The biggest fall ever in the history of smartphones.
www.businesswire.com
Just in February, smartphone sales were down 38% according to this report. Have to assume it'll be far worse than that in March. For Apple, in the last quarter iPhone was 61% of revenue.
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Ive sold my junk bond funds (which had fallen 16% anyway since this crash started), and fist went 50% on Wednesday and 50% today into Goldman Sachs Equity Insights, which holds large blue chip names.
We may go another 25-30% lower, but then we may not. Either way, my bond funds were falling anyway, so I figure stocks will go up faster than bonds will.
I'm not surprised Junk Bond funds are falling. There's going to be plenty of defaults and there will be a lot of big names that will go under.
ponyo
Lifer
- Feb 14, 2002
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I got an email and offer from IB today offering me free FDIC protection for my cash up to $2.5 million. This is actually pretty important, and I'm sure lot of clients were either asking or pulling money from their brokerage account to cover themselves in case of their broker collapse. I'm not really worried too much about health of IB company but you never know. Lot of wealthy individuals have their money at places like IB. And because lot of people also sold stocks recently, many people are sitting on way more than $250,000 cash in their account. SIPC only covers $250,000 cash held in brokerage account. Any cash above that limit is technically at risk if the broker goes under. IB is basically utilizing bunch of different banks to divide and store cash in $250k increments at various different banks for their client. It saves me the hassle of having to withdraw the money and open bank account at different banks to store my money. The danger is if IB uses the same bank you're currently banking with. But they allow you to look through the list of the banks they use and not use your bank.
So keep this in mind as you see the market fall. All this cash sitting on the sidelines eventually have to invest somewhere. It's going to come rushing back into stocks once people feel safe. So don't bet on Mad Max world. The decline will end and stocks will eventually recover.
So keep this in mind as you see the market fall. All this cash sitting on the sidelines eventually have to invest somewhere. It's going to come rushing back into stocks once people feel safe. So don't bet on Mad Max world. The decline will end and stocks will eventually recover.
- Aug 4, 2000
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^Thats good to know. As soon as I get my hands on $2.5MM Ill know where to put it. 
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- Aug 4, 2000
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Sold my gold coins on Friday and bought more NYMT, now have 5000 at $2.15. It hit a 52 week low at $1.15 on Thursday as all REITS have been CRASHING - some 60%,70%,80% or even 95% within one weeks time.
REITS were being dumped wholesale because inevitably some of them hold investments or mortgages on Hotels / Motels, a lot of which were leveraged and now mostly vacant. No cashflow means no ability to pay debt, which means default or maybe even bankruptcy. Some might get waivers or relief from lenders from covenant breaks, but thats down the road. Right now, its sell first and ask questions later.
Also when rates go back up from zero (and they will), that will eat into all REIT margins for a while until they can buy paper at higher rates, so that may also impact future earnings and dividends. There are also plenty of other risks, so be careful. The .80 cent annual dividend might also get slashed or eliminated until this crises passes.
Here is a picture of the REIT stocks I follow, some for almost 15 years. This is worst I've seen since the financial crises:
REITS were being dumped wholesale because inevitably some of them hold investments or mortgages on Hotels / Motels, a lot of which were leveraged and now mostly vacant. No cashflow means no ability to pay debt, which means default or maybe even bankruptcy. Some might get waivers or relief from lenders from covenant breaks, but thats down the road. Right now, its sell first and ask questions later.
Also when rates go back up from zero (and they will), that will eat into all REIT margins for a while until they can buy paper at higher rates, so that may also impact future earnings and dividends. There are also plenty of other risks, so be careful. The .80 cent annual dividend might also get slashed or eliminated until this crises passes.
Here is a picture of the REIT stocks I follow, some for almost 15 years. This is worst I've seen since the financial crises:
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cytg111
Lifer
- Mar 17, 2008
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The market is obviously tanking, can someone explain these dead cat bounces for me? Looking at tech or semi tech like INTC, AMD, NVDA, TSLA, SPCE they all had some momentum thursday that carried over into friday, only to fall flat on its face closing up friday.
If we all know this shit is gonna get worse before it gets better... Then what the bleep ... or rather WHO the bleep is buying up in these pockets? I dont get it? Is it daytraders, shorts cashing in, swing trading, HFT algos, what?
If we all know this shit is gonna get worse before it gets better... Then what the bleep ... or rather WHO the bleep is buying up in these pockets? I dont get it? Is it daytraders, shorts cashing in, swing trading, HFT algos, what?
ponyo
Lifer
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You only need over $250,000 in cash to be at risk. That's not that high of threshold.^Thats good to know. As soon as I get my hands on $2.5MM Ill know where to put it.
ponyo
Lifer
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So the news finally comes out today. And it's what we suspected. It's again the rich fucks behaving recklessly who's torpedoing this market by dropping giant nuclear bombs everywhere. Hundreds of LTCM wannabes blowing up at the same time. For those of you who only started investing recently or after the 2008 bank crash and bailout, LTCM was Long Term Capital Management. It was highly leveraged hedgefund that blew up in 1998 during the Asian Financial crisis and almost took us under. So called smart money. . It was bailed out by the Fed back then. I traded during the 1998 Asian Financial crisis and remember that mini-crash well.
https://www.thebalance.com/long-term-capital-crisis-3306240
Then in 2008, it was the banks who were reckless that blew up and had to be bailed out by the Fed. But the banks sort of learned their lesson and we put lot of restrictions in place and stressed tested them so the banks are lot stronger this time around. But now in 2020, it's the extremely levered hedgefunds that's blowing up again. It seems we didn't learn shit from 1998. Don't let anyone tell you rich people are smart money. No, they're fucking dumb money. They're just like us. They follow each others moves like sheep and make the same mistakes. They're no different from you and I. They're just lucky enough to have more money than us. But the key difference is when we fuck up, we don't get bailed out. They do. So they can make the same fucking mistake again.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...leverage-burned-hedge-funds-in-treasury-trade
Read the above Bloomberg article. It tells you good bit about what's going on and why we're having these crazy drops and record volatility everyday.
. It was bailed out by the Fed back then. I traded during the 1998 Asian Financial crisis and remember that mini-crash well.https://www.thebalance.com/long-term-capital-crisis-3306240
Then in 2008, it was the banks who were reckless that blew up and had to be bailed out by the Fed. But the banks sort of learned their lesson and we put lot of restrictions in place and stressed tested them so the banks are lot stronger this time around. But now in 2020, it's the extremely levered hedgefunds that's blowing up again. It seems we didn't learn shit from 1998. Don't let anyone tell you rich people are smart money. No, they're fucking dumb money. They're just like us. They follow each others moves like sheep and make the same mistakes. They're no different from you and I. They're just lucky enough to have more money than us. But the key difference is when we fuck up, we don't get bailed out. They do. So they can make the same fucking mistake again.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...leverage-burned-hedge-funds-in-treasury-trade
Read the above Bloomberg article. It tells you good bit about what's going on and why we're having these crazy drops and record volatility everyday.
cytg111
Lifer
- Mar 17, 2008
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"The firms use borrowed money from the repurchase market for the popular basis trade, which exploits price differences between cash Treasuries and futures. Though individual firms’ borrowing is a closely guarded metric, people familiar with the transactions said some of them levered up as much as 50 times their own wagers. Leveraged funds’ exposure to the basis strategy could be as much as $650 billion, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said. "
You know, I have a hard time following that to begin with.
Hedge funds borrowing money from the repurchase market.
1. Why the hell would a hedge fund need to borrow money, does it not defy the concept of its very existence? - ok, so they swap some treasury securities for cash .. cash to buy ... stock? Anyway...
2. "people familiar with the transactions said some of them levered up as much as 50 times their own wagers" .. what does the last part mean? what wagers? Shorts? I still dont understand what "50 times" amounts to or what that x amount goes towards (more shorts?)
3. "Leveraged funds’ exposure to the basis strategy" ... to "the basis strategy", what the f*, now you are just mocking me!
And so what if hedge funds fails? Why do I care?
You know, I have a hard time following that to begin with.
Hedge funds borrowing money from the repurchase market.
1. Why the hell would a hedge fund need to borrow money, does it not defy the concept of its very existence? - ok, so they swap some treasury securities for cash .. cash to buy ... stock? Anyway...
2. "people familiar with the transactions said some of them levered up as much as 50 times their own wagers" .. what does the last part mean? what wagers? Shorts? I still dont understand what "50 times" amounts to or what that x amount goes towards (more shorts?)
3. "Leveraged funds’ exposure to the basis strategy" ... to "the basis strategy", what the f*, now you are just mocking me!
And so what if hedge funds fails? Why do I care?
JEDI
Lifer
- Sep 25, 2001
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my corp bonds have also fallen but not as much. (only ~10%)
but sold earlier this week since it was falling. now have even more cash to buy when the market hits bottom.
now can anyone tell me how to spot the bottom vs (another) dead cat bounce?
also, big companies going under?
I doubt that if the $1T bailout plan passes
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If Gamestop is "essential services" then hookers, strippers, and porn have to be considered essential as well.
ponyo
Lifer
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I've been thinking about and researching plays to make in case this outbreak lasts way longer and destroys world economy way worse than what I'm currently expecting. I know I'm late to the game, but I'm not late if we face potential world apqalypse. Not everything is currently priced in for that. So I'm going to make some of those put plays on Monday as long as the market doesn't open down huge. I've some names but going to spend this weekend gathering more names. I'm going to hedge my portfolio.
Sounds like the folks that are in line to buy guns aren't the stupid ones if that's true
PlanetJosh
Golden Member
- May 6, 2013
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I may try the short thing too on Monday. Maybe with one mutual fund with Vanguard. No borrowing. I can just sell all of the fund and hope for a quick few days or one week downturn and then buy back all the shares & pocket the extra cash for bills. If the markets instead go up and stay up then I will wind up screwing up a good portion of my overall dividend income.
- Aug 4, 2000
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Shorting individual stocks is a tricky business. I've been doing it here and there over 20 years and its hard money to make sometimes. You want the stock to fall and it just sits there staring at you or worse, it starts going back up quickly and now you get scared.
Right now the market is EXTREMELY OVERSOLD. Initiating a short position now could be risky or not.
Anyway, I avoid shorting thinly traded stocks or stocks with a high short ratio. Usually those stocks are hard to borrow anyway so you probably cant short them to begin with. ALSO...some brokers require you to PAY INTEREST on the stocks you short...and its not cheap!!!! The interest rate to short Sears stock back in the day was 50%+ annually from Etrade. Its callled "hard to borrow" interest.
Some brokers are notorious for not having any shares to short like TD Ameritrade unless its on a big cap stock that everyone owns. Being that I dont have a margin account by choice Im limited to put options to short a stock.
Because of the record market volatility right now, put and call options are very expensive, so its easy to lose money on them, unless you take profits quickly (my strategy).
If you want to trade options look at the BID/ASK spread. If its too wide, be careful. First they are expensive to begin with, then they want to short change you on the spread. You want it tight and liquid~
This is the reason I prefer to index options over individual stock options. Much easier to make a quick buck.
Right now the market is EXTREMELY OVERSOLD. Initiating a short position now could be risky or not.
Anyway, I avoid shorting thinly traded stocks or stocks with a high short ratio. Usually those stocks are hard to borrow anyway so you probably cant short them to begin with. ALSO...some brokers require you to PAY INTEREST on the stocks you short...and its not cheap!!!! The interest rate to short Sears stock back in the day was 50%+ annually from Etrade. Its callled "hard to borrow" interest.
Some brokers are notorious for not having any shares to short like TD Ameritrade unless its on a big cap stock that everyone owns. Being that I dont have a margin account by choice Im limited to put options to short a stock.
Because of the record market volatility right now, put and call options are very expensive, so its easy to lose money on them, unless you take profits quickly (my strategy).
If you want to trade options look at the BID/ASK spread. If its too wide, be careful. First they are expensive to begin with, then they want to short change you on the spread. You want it tight and liquid~
This is the reason I prefer to index options over individual stock options. Much easier to make a quick buck.
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DIsney over the weekend raised $6B in a debt offering. That sounds really bad, like they are having cash flow problems.
I always wonder how Disney has cashflow problems when you have multiple parks around the world that are filled to the brim daily - cost $120 per ticket to get in ... plus people spend $200+ on food and drinks for a day.... plus hotel revenue...plus people can never go there without buying a shitload of overpriced merchandise.
And this is pre-corona virus that they have had issues.
- Aug 4, 2000
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We are down 4% right now. DFW looks like a ghost town. As expected Congress is having second thougts about the size and details about the bailout. But everyone knew this was going to happen. Dont worry though, it will get passed this week. In the meantime though, we get to enjoy up/down volatility all week!
**IF** I had a short target in mind it would be HIlton, Alcoa Aluminum or Virgin Galactic. Hilton is obvious but only for a few points of downdraft. Alocoa stock is so low right now, its trading at a price not seen since 1978. They have been experiencing heavy losses with all the tariffs and with the Corona Virus doing its thing, this stock just cant seem to catch a break - 52 week high was almost $30, now trades for $5.48. SPCE short is also obvious. They had a short covering rally on Friday after breaking the $10 mark.
All three are risky shorts as Alcoa is at 45 year lows, SPCE has too many shorts piling on right now, and Hilton will likely survive but at a lower price (Bill Ackman thinks Hilton goes to ZERO! LOL).
ponyo
Lifer
- Feb 14, 2002
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I'm not concerned about the passage of the bailout stimulus. It's 100% going to pass. Which is why I'm going long for a trade. Stocks are going to bounce soon. Italy reported lower daily infected case today. They've peaked or going to stabilize in the coming month. Which is good news for the rest of us. But the economic damage done to the US and world economy by this virus will take years to fully recover. So I'm going to play this bounce and then buy put from higher level.
Everyone is looking at this chart. I think it's good comparison as I think this is 1929 2.0.
After the stimulus bounce, I'm going to buy puts on some blue chip names. If this is 1929 2.0, blue chips have lot further to fall. They're the ones with the most meat still left on the bone and with the lowest put premium.
njdevilsfan87
Platinum Member
- Apr 19, 2007
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