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Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

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Nov 8, 2012
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I'm not concerned about the passage of the bailout stimulus. It's 100% going to pass. Which is why I'm going long for a trade. Stocks are going to bounce soon. Italy reported lower daily infected case today. They've peaked or going to stabilize in the coming month. Which is good news for the rest of us. But the economic damage done to the US and world economy by this virus will take years to fully recover. So I'm going to play this bounce and then buy put from higher level.

Everyone is looking at this chart. I think it's good comparison as I think this is 1929 2.0.



After the stimulus bounce, I'm going to buy puts on some blue chip names. If this is 1929 2.0, blue chips have lot further to fall. They're the ones with the most meat still left on the bone and with the lowest put premium.
Definitely is something fun to compare to... So each one of those boxes within the year is 3 months eh?

Yeah I would be hard pressed to see positives in the next 3 months though. By the time any 1 country clears up/slightly contains the virus, then new countries will hit that indirectly affect the other countries.
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
26,834
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this thur is unemployment claims.
estimates are 1.5-2M.
previous record was 700k in 1982 :eek:
 

PlanetJosh

Golden Member
May 6, 2013
1,513
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A $2 trillion infusion by Monday or Tuesday may not impress the markets. I know shorting is hard to do successfully but if the markets are down significantly by the end of this Friday then we would have missed out on a great short opportunity with selling some of our mutual funds tomorrow Monday. Then buying them back sometime on Friday and using the extra cash for bills or whatever.

Sounds so rosy and easy doesn't it? Well I'm doing it despite the risks and selling the biggest of my three Vanguard funds tomorrow. I know I'll take a big hit for one day because mutual fund transactions have to wait until the close to get the final sale price. And it looks like the markets will sink Monday. So I'm counting on more market drops overall through Friday to get a successful short.
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
26,834
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Futures went -2% to +4% immediately after the Fed said this morning that it would begin backstopping an unprecedented range of credit for households, small businesses and major employers.

what does that mean??
and why include major employers at this time?
 

jpiniero

Diamond Member
Oct 1, 2010
8,878
1,628
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Futures went -2% to +4% immediately after the Fed said this morning that it would begin backstopping an unprecedented range of credit for households, small businesses and major employers.

what does that mean??
and why include major employers at this time?
Can the Fed go bankrupt? I guess we will find out.
 

jpiniero

Diamond Member
Oct 1, 2010
8,878
1,628
126
Intel and AMD are both rallying, not sure if that's because they are able to keep their businesses running unlike most of the country.
 
Nov 8, 2012
18,503
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Thoughts on investing in something like ATVI? Stock is already down from it's highs before the recession.

Kids (and adults) stuck at home for the next few months, probably one of the few things people will spend money on would be videogames to waste time, no?
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
26,834
1,153
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I'm going to quarantine and remove myself from this thread. I'm learning and getting nothing out of this thread. Good luck and stay safe.
I can see dow 50% down from it's high by end of this month.
ie: dow 15k


edit:
I was quoting Felix's sky is falling post. no idea how ponyo's
 

snoopdoug1

Platinum Member
Jan 8, 2002
2,164
0
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We're not that far off of 15k. I'm thinking of reentering when that happens. Worried about quarterly reports...
 

PlanetJosh

Golden Member
May 6, 2013
1,513
61
91
^ Quarterly reports probably implies dividends. And if dividends go down then that's where cash and real estate comes in handy. For those lucky enough to have either one.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
26,321
476
126
^ lol it has a 42% dividend! :) What is it normally?
10%, lots of reits are in trouble right now for all sorts of reasons like commercial paper market liquidity probs, mortgage/ rent payments might go in default, etc etc etc.

Go back a few posts up and you will see a screenshot of one of the bloodiest days for reits Ive seen since 07-08.

The dividend might be suspended or eliminated until the crisis is over, but I think they survive. There is always a risk of cascading bankruptcies and the stock going to zero, but they survived 08, and insiders bought just last week.

Who knows in the end what happens.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
26,321
476
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normally $6, now $1.88.
for the dividends?
Nobody knows the future exactly until its the past. Im betting it goes back to $6 this year or next and maybe pays its usual dividend.

If Im wrong, it goes to zilch. There are other reits out there to choose from like SBRA that holds investments in medical real estate.
 

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,572
1,161
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Dow is below 19K. Yike. I read that real estate bond market is bad now.
 

PlanetJosh

Golden Member
May 6, 2013
1,513
61
91
Ok I sold my big Vanguard mutual fund today to short it and found out it has a 30 day no buy back restriction. I though it would be just a week or two. I could've looked it up before but didn't. The restriction's been in place for years to discourage market timing it says in their online articles.

So anyway that's not so bad. I just wait for the 1st quarter earnings reports for all major corps which are expected to tank. And then pocket all the extra cash when I buy all the share back on or a bit after 4/22. Simple. Well we know I'd be screwed if the markets go up in 3 weeks and stay up the rest of the year.
 

brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
20,706
2,594
126
Ok I sold my big Vanguard mutual fund today to short it and found out it has a 30 day no buy back restriction. I though it would be just a week or two. I could've looked it up before but didn't. The restriction's been in place for years to discourage market timing it says in their online articles.

So anyway that's not so bad. I just wait for the 1st quarter earnings reports for all major corps which are expected to tank. And then pocket all the extra cash when I buy all the share back on or a bit after 4/22. Simple. Well we know I'd be screwed if the markets go up in 3 weeks and stay up the rest of the year.
you can write them a letter (or maybe call/email or something) and they will bypass the buy back restriction
 

PlanetJosh

Golden Member
May 6, 2013
1,513
61
91
^ I thought about calling and asking for an exception but I don't want to look bad or get on anyone's bad side at Vanguard. Those funds have been in my family for decades and I think I better wait the full 30 days or somewhat longer to buy it all back. edit - I'd suffer with this one fund if the markets skyrocket up. But if that happens I'll be ok and even good because I have other mutual funds I'm not ever selling.
 
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