Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,011
2,682
126
So Bill Ackman now says is buying not shorting HIlton stock.

Aint that a hoot!

The stock is down almost 45% from its 52 week high and was down almost 62% for a while.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,011
2,682
126
NYMT getting margin calls, stock down 33% premarket. This was one of the risk factors. Dividend suspended to preserve cash. This was due to widening spreads in RMBS market. The feds actions may stabilize the market, but normally when a company warns they are meeting with creditors you sell and dont ask questions. Might liquidate and see where it winds up.
 
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Nov 8, 2012
20,842
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Up over 20k on the Dow so far today - basically on hopes of the last stimulus package passing today. Something tells me this will be short lived when reality sets in tomorrow
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,738
126
now that the $2T stimulus bill is near passing, Im going 6figure long on oil at $23.60.
plus US might form a cartel with Saudi. (not likely but optimism raises prices.)
target $30, stop $22
 

hawkeye_wx

Junior Member
Oct 14, 2011
17
0
66
Semis are bouncing hard. AMD is up 25% from its low and NVDA has already rocketed up 35+% from its low. The question is.... if you still want to get into these names, what do you do now?
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,011
2,682
126
Sold NYMT for a loss. Ive held stocks that faced BR by living off hopium but then it wound up going to zero.

Most likely they survive by selling mortgages but I was already down 50% and licking my wounds, and Im not going to look at it again until they work out an ironclad deal with creditors to navigate this.

If they dont get a deal then they have to enter Chap 11 to negotiate.
 

brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
24,625
6,011
136
i've never been this tempted to sell some stock ETFs on today's bounce-up, then see if it drops again in the next week or two

i should've done it weeks ago but i'm slow and stupid
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,011
2,682
126
i've never been this tempted to sell some stock ETFs on today's bounce-up, then see if it drops again in the next week or two

i should've done it weeks ago but i'm slow and stupid

Welcome to the club! Ive been an honorary member for years!

Sometimes being behind the curb is helpful so you dont overreact.

Im not sure if we go up or down for now but we are not out of the woods yet.

All of North Texas is now in lockdown eff today. City by city is shutting down.

Also when I place online orders Im not buying from NY or CA since I dont know when I will get it.
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,738
126
now that the $2T stimulus bill is near passing, Im going 6figure long on oil at $23.60.
plus US might form a cartel with Saudi. (not likely but optimism raises prices.)
target $30, stop $22
need to stop staring at the screen. getting a headache.
sold at breakeven.
see you all tommorow
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,842
4,785
146
Today should be another day of stimulus optimism, and then after that who knows.

Looks like that will be the case - Up ~500 as of right now for DOW.

Next determining factor will be getting it passed. House (Pelosi) is trying to get a unanimous vote, which will make it so that they won't have to gather and have an actual vote in-person. But if just 1 person objects to it, then they would have to meet up to pass it (from what I'm understanding).

Hopefully throughout the day we will get some more actual details of what is in it, what changed from the previous versions, etc.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Roger Wilco
Nov 8, 2012
20,842
4,785
146
I never understand why stocks are up on days like today.... It was up yesterday on the prospect of a stimulus being passed.... and today... same thing...

I had to do a store pickup from a store today that was right by a major mall - which subsequently has a bunch of restaurants, bars, and outside shopping areas of other retail stores outside of the mall.....

Every. Single. Thing... was empty. With one exception of the liquor store lol. But anyhow, my point is simply that stimulus or no stimulus - you have zero chances of a recovery until those parking lots are full. Until then it should be nothing but doom and gloom.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,842
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Futures down.

Unemployment shot up from 281k to 3.28M. That's a fucking 11.5x increase... and that's from last week!

Time to start shitting bricks. Amazing how fucking dumb traders are to be up the last 2 days when anyone with half a brain knew that reality has nothing to do with a stimulus bill that might help only after this is over.

The number of Americans filing for unemployment skyrocketed to a record-breaking 3.283 million for the week ended March 21. Consensus expectations were for 1.64 million claims. The previous record was 695,000 claims filed the week ended October 2, 1982. Initial jobless claims for the week ended March 14 jumped by 70,000 claims to 281,000 and was the largest single-week increase since the Great Recession.
 
Jan 25, 2011
17,076
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Futures down.

Unemployment shot up from 281k to 3.28M. That's a fucking 11.5x increase... and that's from last week!

Time to start shitting bricks. Amazing how fucking dumb traders are to be up the last 2 days when anyone with half a brain knew that reality has nothing to do with a stimulus bill that might help only after this is over.
Sad reality is that is a little under estimate. we expected 3.4MM. Next weeks will be probably 2-2.5 million as things get caught up.

The good news is it's pretty much baked into the market already so shouldn't have much of an impact.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
26,178
15,593
136
Futures down.

Unemployment shot up from 281k to 3.28M. That's a fucking 11.5x increase... and that's from last week!

Time to start shitting bricks. Amazing how fucking dumb traders are to be up the last 2 days when anyone with half a brain knew that reality has nothing to do with a stimulus bill that might help only after this is over.
Yea, if anything I should have known that it would make a fake 1-2 day bounce and gotten off the ride after 24 hours for a little ~10-20% bump. Then again, that is a dangerous game.
You added another 13K infected yesterday, 10K before that, 9K before that.. Now I am not a nuclear physicist but I think there is a correlation between things growing exponentially and things that go boom.
 

ThatsABigOne

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 2010
4,422
23
81
I expect the market already priced the unemployment data. We shall see at the opening. Futures didn't move much.
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,738
126
Futures down.

Unemployment shot up from 281k to 3.28M. That's a fucking 11.5x increase... and that's from last week!

Time to start shitting bricks. Amazing how fucking dumb traders are to be up the last 2 days when anyone with half a brain knew that reality has nothing to do with a stimulus bill that might help only after this is over.
and yet at 10:45am, dow is up 900 points?!
wow
but I cant find any new news why?
 

vi edit

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Oct 28, 1999
62,484
8,345
126
I'm confused too. I don't think earlier declines priced in future unemployment. We still haven't really felt that yet.
 

Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
4,778
7,162
136
Yesterday the DOW was up something like 1300 points. It sharply fell in the final hours of trading when Bernie Sanders raised objections about the stimulus bill. Now that the stimulus bill seems to be moving ahead, stocks are returning to their original highs as of yesterday, but they don't seem to be moving past that point.
 

PlanetJosh

Golden Member
May 6, 2013
1,814
143
106
A lone guy rings the closing bell these days. Probably a repost but still.

Edit: So now I sort of do well if the market goes either way, I have a mutual fund on a short waiting for markets to drop so I can buy back its shares, and the rest are mutual funds & a few single stocks going long,

Not sure if all that makes sense to me. I guess I want a quick and steep market drop so I can make money on the short. Then I'll stop shorting and hope for markets to go back up to what they are today and eventually what they were in mid February.
 
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