Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[IronWing]

Went to check indices. There's a pic of a dead dog on the page. Click bait article.

 

[herm0016]

what you you guys buying? i'm still in on my 401k and ESPP, so plenty of exposure to the energy markets. i have a few hundred in cash from dividends. i always try to throw it back in, usually ETFs.

 

[FelixDeCat]

what you you guys buying? i'm still in on my 401k and ESPP, so plenty of exposure to the energy markets. i have a few hundred in cash from dividends. i always try to throw it back in, usually ETFs.

Im buying cash in my personal account. I sold my junk bonds a while back and moved into gselx.

I dont think we've seen the bottom yet. Our solution seems to be the same as always- more and more crushing national debt we have no intention of ever repaying.

We continued to go deeper into debt when the market was overheated the last 10 years and our solution now is even more debt.

 

[snoopdoug1]

Im buying cash in my personal account. I sold my junk bonds a while back and moved into gselx.

I dont think we've seen the bottom yet. Our solution seems to be the same as always- more and more crushing national debt we have no intention of ever repaying.

We continued to go deeper into debt when the market was overheated the last 10 years and our solution now is even more debt.

One day the bill is going to come due and it will be nightmare without end. But nobody cares about that because we pretend it doesn't matter.

I'm similar, but still have bonds. Will likely change those over to money markets. Problem is, when do you get back in? India is just starting in on COVID-19, and last data I saw on the news this morning was 1k infections with 89 deaths.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I'm similar, but still have bonds. Will likely change those over to money markets. Problem is, when do you get back in? India is just starting in on COVID-19, and last data I saw on the news this morning was 1k infections with 89 deaths.

I went back in 50% increments into gselx when the QQQ was 169-172.

The unknown right now is the effect of all this government intervention. Its a crutch for a broken leg. The leg is still broken, so we might fall.

 

[FelixDeCat]

It was impossible to get get a haircut 100 miles in any direction this weekend,I had to shave my head.

Restuarants are in deflationary mode offering big discounts to stay open.

Cruise Lines are dead. Online deals are popping up everywhere. While deflation is a good thing short term, long term it might hurt workers.

 

[KB]

If this article is half right we could have massive unemployment, yet the market keeps moving its way up. Perhaps its all priced in and the market is pricing in a vaccine? I do think the downturn will be brief, but it will still be bad.

Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%, Fed estimates

Millions of Americans already have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus crisis and the worst of the damage is yet to come, according to the Federal Reserve.

www.cnbc.com

 

[jpiniero]

Only explanation I can give is that the numbers are so bad it will start putting pressure on the Gov to reopen things.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

If this article is half right we could could massive unemployment, yet the market keeps going moving its way up. Perhaps its all priced in and the market is pricing in a vaccine? I do think the downturn will be brief, but it will still be bad.

Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%, Fed estimates

Millions of Americans already have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus crisis and the worst of the damage is yet to come, according to the Federal Reserve.

www.cnbc.com

I think the market is trying to price in the high unemployment rate (hopefully) being temporary. Given the circumstances of how this all began, this shouldn't drag out over a decade like the Great Depression did. There might be a rough year or two, but I would expect a recovery more quick than the Great Recession.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

If this article is half right we could could massive unemployment, yet the market keeps going moving its way up. Perhaps its all priced in and the market is pricing in a vaccine? I do think the downturn will be brief, but it will still be bad.

Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%, Fed estimates

Millions of Americans already have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus crisis and the worst of the damage is yet to come, according to the Federal Reserve.

www.cnbc.com

I think the market right now is being dumb as fuck to be going up right now.

Yeah, cool, they passed some debt bills to give people some cash.... Again... that DOESNT MEAN people are going to be able to get out and shop with that cash.

My philosophy on investment: Until you actively see people at restaurants and department stores, we haven't hit bottom. Period.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I think the market right now is being dumb as fuck to be going up right now.

Yeah, cool, they passed some debt bills to give people some cash.... Again... that DOESNT MEAN people are going to be able to get out and shop with that cash.

My philosophy on investment: Until you actively see people at restaurants and department stores, we haven't hit bottom. Period.

And barbershops! None are open within a 100 miles from my location in any direction.

 

[FelixDeCat]

If you wanted more evidence of the horror being experienced on the demand side for oil....

Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction in history

The growing fear among many traders is that oil demand, which averaged just over 100 MMbpd in 2019, may contract by the most ever this year, even surpassing the 2.65 MMbpd registered in 1980, when the world economy crashed after the second oil crisis.

www.worldoil.com

"The growing fear among many traders is that oil demand, which averaged just over 100 MMbpd in 2019, may contract by the most ever this year, easily outstripping the loss of almost 1 MMbpd during the great recession in 2009 and even surpassing the 2.65 MMbpd registered in 1980, when the world economy crashed after the second oil crisis. "

"Goldman Sachs, which runs one of the largest commodity trading business in Wall Street, is now forecasting that oil demand will contract by more than 4 million barrels a day every month from February to April. Other investors see much larger demand drops in the short term."

"Trafigura, among the world’s top-three independent oil traders, is publicly the most bearish about demand, saying that consumption could soon be contracting by close to 10 million barrels a day, or 10% of global demand, with perhaps more to come. Its forecast is for a relatively short period of time, rather than a quarterly or an annual forecast. But it shows the sudden drop in consumption. "

 

[snoopdoug1]

If you wanted more evidence of the horror being experienced on the demand side for oil....

Global oil use heads for steepest annual contraction in history

The growing fear among many traders is that oil demand, which averaged just over 100 MMbpd in 2019, may contract by the most ever this year, even surpassing the 2.65 MMbpd registered in 1980, when the world economy crashed after the second oil crisis.

www.worldoil.com

"The growing fear among many traders is that oil demand, which averaged just over 100 MMbpd in 2019, may contract by the most ever this year, easily outstripping the loss of almost 1 MMbpd during the great recession in 2009 and even surpassing the 2.65 MMbpd registered in 1980, when the world economy crashed after the second oil crisis. "

"Goldman Sachs, which runs one of the largest commodity trading business in Wall Street, is now forecasting that oil demand will contract by more than 4 million barrels a day every month from February to April. Other investors see much larger demand drops in the short term."

"Trafigura, among the world’s top-three independent oil traders, is publicly the most bearish about demand, saying that consumption could soon be contracting by close to 10 million barrels a day, or 10% of global demand, with perhaps more to come. Its forecast is for a relatively short period of time, rather than a quarterly or an annual forecast. But it shows the sudden drop in consumption. "

Makes sense if air travel contracts (which it already is significantly), then oil demand will drop. Add in all this work from home stuff and I haven't filled my car in 2 weeks!

 

[ponyo]

nvm. apology to the trading gods. Back to my quarantine.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Bought back some SQQQ calls for a trade. I think when today is over the buying pressure may subside, but you never know these days.

 

[FelixDeCat]

nvm. apology to the trading gods. Back to my quarantine.

You are always welcome here.

 

[ViviTheMage]

I think the market right now is being dumb as fuck to be going up right now.

Yeah, cool, they passed some debt bills to give people some cash.... Again... that DOESNT MEAN people are going to be able to get out and shop with that cash.

My philosophy on investment: Until you actively see people at restaurants and department stores, we haven't hit bottom. Period.

Just throwing this out there but isn't the market already kind of corrected out 3 to 6 months at this point? Not to say it won't get much worse if the curve doesn't flatten anytime soon.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

nvm. apology to the trading gods. Back to my quarantine.

lol read your post earlier. Look man, I understand the market works not based on current events - but based on perceived futures. The problem is, no one with half a brain would say that we have any sort of future track to controlling this. No one.

Trump himself even pushed back social distancing to End of April. If they truly reacted based on the future, that should have been a giant red-flag that shit is going to suck for (at minimal) till May. I don't see that reflected in pricing today.


(Also if you're quarantining, then might I suggest not reading posts hehe)

 

[FelixDeCat]

Just throwing this out there but isn't the market already kind of corrected out 3 to 6 months at this point? Not to say it won't get much worse if the curve doesn't flatten anytime soon.

Thats the great debate going on right now. I listen to CNBC and Fox Business all day long at work.

There are money managers in charge of millions or billions and they've make compelling arguments either way.

Then you have short and long term traders trying to figure out the next day or two, or week or two as the case may be.

I hear all this and watch sectors and story stocks, looking for opportunities.

Last night I bought puts on Carnival Cruise Lines after continuing to hear stories about death ships not being able to dock. Today CCL announced a big secondary and debt offering, a loss for 2020 and no bookings allowed for now. I dumped the puts at the open for a profit and went long 1000 shares. Made more money and sold at 13.60.

Now I have 14 SQQQ $20 April calls for $2.05 for a trade.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Just throwing this out there but isn't the market already kind of corrected out 3 to 6 months at this point? Not to say it won't get much worse if the curve doesn't flatten anytime soon.

Impossible to really know. We're back to late 2017 levels after this last rally. Even if/when the curve flattens, that's with lockdown in play. The lack of any exit strategy right now makes late 2017 >>> Now, imo.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Thats the great debate going on right now. I listen to CNBC and Fox Business all day long at work.

There are money managers in charge of millions or billions and they've make compelling arguments either way.

Then you have short and long term traders trying to figure out the next day or two, or week or two as the case may be.

I hear all this and watch sectors and story stocks, looking for opportunities.

Last night I bought puts on Carnival Cruise Lines after continuing to hear stories about death ships not being able to dock. Today CCL announced a big secondary and debt offering, a loss for 2020 and no bookings allowed for now. I dumped the puts at the open for a profit and went long 1000 shares. Made more money and sold at 13.60.

Now I have 14 SQQQ $20 April calls for $2.05 for a trade.

So with your thoughts on inevitable bailouts, what are your thoughts on buying a few stocks in major cruise lines (Royal Caribbean + Carnival), airlines, and hotels?

I mean with the case of airlines + hotels, I kinda feel like it's a no brainer. If they don't recover, then our economy is fucked altogether. I work in a line of traveling to see clients, along with plenty of others....

Things like Marriott (which now includes Starwood) is down 50%.

 

[ViviTheMage]

Thats the great debate going on right now. I listen to CNBC and Fox Business all day long at work.

Yeah, it's an interesting time. I know a lot of reddit has a huge hardon for SQQQ. I figured now is a good time to buy the stocks I liked before everything went down. I am hoping to hold for 12+ months though.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Yeah, it's an interesting time. I know a lot of reddit has a huge hardon for SQQQ. I figured now is a good time to buy the stocks I liked before everything went down. I am hoping to hold for 12+ months though.

Never forget about dat tax advantage

 

[ViviTheMage]

Never forget about dat tax advantage

Yeah... That's why I shoot for 12+. Sometimes I don't make it when a stock exceeds what I thought it would, haha.

 

[FelixDeCat]

So with your thoughts on inevitable bailouts, what are your thoughts on buying a few stocks in major cruise lines (Royal Caribbean + Carnival), airlines, and hotels?

I mean with the case of airlines + hotels, I kinda feel like it's a no brainer. If they don't recover, then our economy is fucked altogether. I work in a line of traveling to see clients, along with plenty of others....

Things like Marriott (which now includes Starwood) is down 50%.

I only traded around CCL's decline and then reversal only for a few bucks. One thing I do not want to do is marry that stock right now.

As far as hotel stocks, I think I would rather stay at a hotel than buy any of those stocks right now. A lot of have recovered most of their losses. They might look better when the market takes back those gains.