Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

I found this article interesting from MSN Money:

30 stocks on a deathwatch

It mentions cruise lines, airlines, hotels, reits, casinos, car rental companies as possibly going out of bidness (bankruptcy). After reading the article I think the worst is Hertz car rental (HTZ). They have $800M cash on hand and $19 BILLION in debt. The do have other assets but usually companies file for bankruptcy in order to liquidate them or reach an agreement with creditors to sell them and pay down debt in exchange for deferral of interest, payments or some other waiver.

I remember in 2008-2009, the market figured Avis (CAR) was also done for and drove the stock down to around .40 cents. My brother purchased 2,000 shares around $1 as a gamble on a broker recommendation. He rode those shares back up to about $15.00 :

 

[KB]

I found this article interesting from MSN Money:

30 stocks on a deathwatch

It mentions cruise lines, airlines, hotels, reits, casinos, car rental companies as possibly going out of bidness (bankruptcy). After reading the article I think the worst is Hertz car rental (HTZ). They have $800M cash on hand and $19 BILLION in debt. The do have other assets but usually companies file for bankruptcy in order to liquidate them or reach an agreement with creditors to sell them and pay down debt in exchange for deferral of interest, payments or some other waiver.

I remember in 2008-2009, the market figured Avis (CAR) was also done for and drove the stock down to around .40 cents. My brother purchased 2,000 shares around $1 as a gamble on a broker recommendation. He rode those shares back up to about $15.00 :

View attachment 18958

The article is interesting, but sadly a little late for most investors. Those stocks mentioned have definitely gotten hit the hardest. Of all the stocks I think cruise ships are in the worst shape. They are less likely to get the bailout and who wants to go on a cruise and get quarantined for weeks? I would still stay at a hotel or rent a car, might even gamble if they clean the chips, but cruising is scary right now.

IIRC Car rental companies in 2008 got hit hard because the value of used cars fell significantly, so assets on the balance sheet dropped. For HTZ I would look at when that debt comes due. If it is not for many years then they may be fine. Also how much is their car fleet worth? If they have assets of 18 billion then debt of 18 billion isn't so bad.
If HTZ falls below a dollar I will be buying on hopes it does was AVIS did in 2008.

 

[dasherHampton]

I finally opened all of my statements from last month. It was pretty ugly even on Feb 29th. Everything was down about 10% total, some a little more, some a little less.

I'm hoping against hope that all the geniuses in charge of those funds sold off everything they could at a smaller loss in preparation for the meltdown. That's probably a pipe dream.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Oil / gas co. Whitling Petroleum WLL files for Chap 11. Ive been watching that one for years.

Look at the 1,3 and 5 year chart on that one.

Bye bye money!

 

[JEDI]

Im buying cash in my personal account. I sold my junk bonds a while back and moved into gselx.

1.79% yield but .55% expense ratio?!

 

[KB]

Oil / gas co. Whitling Petroleum WLL files for Chap 11. Ive been watching that one for years.

Look at the 1,3 and 5 year chart on that one.

Bye bye money!

I expect a lot of oil patch bankruptcies coming in the future. Don't want to hold HIGH yield debt right now.

Amazingly money is so easy to get, these companies will get money to survive and do it all again in another five years.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The case for an American oil cartel or monopoly is there. Look at the NFL and MLB.

How much do you want to bet that gets floated by politicians?

 

[JEDI]

The case for an American oil cartel or monopoly is there. Look at the NFL and MLB.

nfl monopoly?
xfl is trying to make a come back.

I would like to see xfl do some BIG changes like an all female offensive/defensive line.
and a rule that says only a female can sack the QB while he's in the pocket

 

[JEDI]

and the 4figure swings are back.
dow closed -1k

so much for the $2T stimulus reassuring the market.
throwing $ at the econ for a biological problem doesn't work

 

[snoopdoug1]

and the 4figure swings are back.
dow closed -1k

so much for the $2T stimulus reassuring the market.
throwing $ at the econ for a biological problem doesn't work

If they are back, that means it'll go up tomorrow haha

 

[brianmanahan]

we need madoka here at a time like this

@madoka

 

[JEDI]

we need madoka here at a time like this

@madoka

why?

also, last seen Oct 29, 2018
another long time member that stopped coming to AT

 

[JEDI]

If they are back, that means it'll go up tomorrow haha

yup, dead cat bouncing.
but the market will keep averaging down till mid-april when the virus is supposed to hit it's peak.
if peak confirmed, then there will be confidence and stock prices will go up in anticipation that the stay at home order will not be extended past April 30.

how low will the market go?
I suspect the dow, at minimum, will test the 18.5k recent bottom again.
and I will be buying 6figures HUGE at that point for the long term.
i'll still have 5 figures in reserve incase it drops another 10% to 16.7k.

 

[KB]

and the 4figure swings are back.
dow closed -1k

so much for the $2T stimulus reassuring the market.
throwing $ at the econ for a biological problem doesn't work

I think we will need 4 sets of stimulus to get out of this mess. Instead of home foreclosures like in 2008, we will see multiple business failures.

 

[jpiniero]

New Unemployment claims last week was 6.64 million. That is of course a new record. Will it be broken next week?

 

[snoopdoug1]

New Unemployment claims last week was 6.64 million. That is of course a new record. Will it be broken next week?

My prediction: It'll be broken the next two weeks again, but won't double. Things are going to get worse in the short term, not better.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Scientists are estimating that our peak will be in 2 weeks (With some states that had delayed outbreaks estimated to be in 3-4 weeks). That's 2 more weeks of HUGE ass new unemployment numbers. That's 2 more weeks of the PREVIOUS unemployed, still being unemployed. Then you still probably have another couple weeks of the downward from the peak - probably another 2-3 weeks ontop of that to prevent another peak.

Again, the concept of the market going up in preparation for what is going to be a TON of bad news for the market is just mind-boggling. I honestly think we have another 30-50% drop before we are anywhere near bottom.

 

[JEDI]

Again, the concept of the market going up in preparation for what is going to be a TON of bad news for the market is just mind-boggling. I honestly think we have another 30-50% drop before we are anywhere near bottom.

dow 11k?

 

[KB]

The market is giving you another opportunity to sell here as it meanders upward.

I just don't see how an economy can grow when jobs are being lost at such a rate. And if an economy can't grow, how does the stock market?

 

[JEDI]

interesting.. triple leveraged oil LONG (uwt) is being liquidated tomorrow and will cease to exist in it's current form.
it's price is frozen at .16/share even though oil prices have climbed 20% today! (.16 is the fair liquidated price apparently.)

uwt should have been up 60%!
a lot of people got screwed!
(I have no stake in it.)

was this timing of the fund closing and Trump getting a deal between russia/Saudi a coincidence? or...?

 

[Mermaidman]

(Not sure if discussed already)
The COVID stimulus bill will allow penalty-free/tax-free withdrawals from your IRA, up to $100,000. You'll need to repay the same amount within 3 years.

Coronavirus stimulus-package tax relief: Withdraw $100K from your IRA — and repay in 3 years with zero tax liability

Use the money to pay bills, pay down your HELOC, or simply to get through the pandemic.

www.marketwatch.com

I have a lot of cash sitting in the IRA (procrastinated and missed out on the post-2017 rally in equities) and it's tempting to withdraw some. Maybe buy a Tesla car , but maybe better to not cash out and instead buy TSLA. Anyone else tempted to withdraw from your IRA?

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

(Not sure if discussed already)
The COVID stimulus bill will allow penalty-free/tax-free withdrawals from your IRA, up to $100,000. You'll need to repay the same amount within 3 years.

Coronavirus stimulus-package tax relief: Withdraw $100K from your IRA — and repay in 3 years with zero tax liability

Use the money to pay bills, pay down your HELOC, or simply to get through the pandemic.

www.marketwatch.com

I have a lot of cash sitting in the IRA (procrastinated and missed out on the post-2017 rally in equities) and it's tempting to withdraw some. Maybe buy a Tesla car , but maybe better to not cash out and instead buy TSLA. Anyone else tempted to withdraw from your IRA?

Having to repay it makes it useless...

I also presume you would have to pay the income taxes on it.

Otherwise I would just withdraw it, put it in an after-tax brokerage and put it in the same retirement fund.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I think the money you withdraw from an IRA has to be repaid over 36 months.

 

[jpiniero]

The market is giving you another opportunity to sell here as it meanders upward.

I just don't see how an economy can grow when jobs are being lost at such a rate. And if an economy can't grow, how does the stock market?

I still chalk it up to "It's so bad, Govts will be forced to reopen sooner rather than later"

At some point I have to wonder if/when the Fed will directly buy equities.

 

[manly]

(Not sure if discussed already)
The COVID stimulus bill will allow penalty-free/tax-free withdrawals from your IRA, up to $100,000. You'll need to repay the same amount within 3 years.

Coronavirus stimulus-package tax relief: Withdraw $100K from your IRA — and repay in 3 years with zero tax liability

Use the money to pay bills, pay down your HELOC, or simply to get through the pandemic.

www.marketwatch.com

I have a lot of cash sitting in the IRA (procrastinated and missed out on the post-2017 rally in equities) and it's tempting to withdraw some. Maybe buy a Tesla car , but maybe better to not cash out and instead buy TSLA. Anyone else tempted to withdraw from your IRA?

Huh, remove money from your IRA when equities are getting cheaper? I'm going to be buying an index fund once the markets retest the March 23rd lows.
The only plausible reason I could think of borrowing from your IRA is if a person did not have an emergency fund, and needs cash for the next few months.

Between buying a new Tesla car vs. buying TSLA at $450, the former is a worse financial decision but maybe not by much.