Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[dasherHampton]

meh

Went ahead and sold 40 6/19 SRNE $4 calls for $2000. Maybe stupid but I don't really care right now. My adjusted cost basis on the SRNE shares is like $2.80.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Market on fire. Want to see follow through tomorrow.

 

[JEDI]

Got some CCL for a short covering rally. Be nice to see $12 again.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia initiated a 5%+ stake this quarter.

I shorted ncl because of the Saudi stake in carnival.
they're not investing in ncl as far as I know.
no idea why ncl is being lifted

 

[FelixDeCat]

I shorted ncl because of the Saudi stake in carnival.
they're not investing in ncl as far as I know.
no idea why ncl is being lifted

There is such a thing as "sympathy rally". When GM rallies Ford comes along for the ride even if the news is unrelated to the sympathetic players.

Id assume with unlimited billions to invest, SA is not going to buy into a company that will go bankrupt. So theyve probably done their homework.

I sold my CCL calls for a double, but still hold some shares in my HSA as a bet from 9.40 to 12.00.

 

[KB]

Leave it to marketwatch to play both sides. Morgan Stanley says prepare for a vicious spiral worse than financial crises. I am guessing there is some serious manipulation going on. I think the trade to play may still be to sell when the market rises and buy when it falls.

Investors should prepare for a coronavirus-induced ‘vicious spiral’ more than twice as bad as the financial crisis, says J.P. Morgan

There is a significant chance the global economy experiences “a vicious spiral, which is typical of recessions, between weak final demand, weaker labor...

www.marketwatch.com

I will tell you one thing, this is a shocking graph, something we have never seen before. The market normally doesn't like uncertainty and I can't see how this isn't uncertainty.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Wellthatsucks/comments/fvyi5h

 

[snoopdoug1]

Got some CCL for a short covering rally. Be nice to see $12 again.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia initiated a 5%+ stake this quarter.

That was a good buy if you got in at 10AM

 

[FelixDeCat]

That was a good buy if you got in at 10AM

I am at work and cant post my order confirmations right now. But I picked up 14 CCL $9 April 17s for $1.30, sold same day $2.30. Not an exact double, but close enough for government work.

I also bought 100 @9.4 just as a side bet for a longer term account and 45 @ 9.42 for a tiny cash account. All buys executed roughly the same time.

 

[FelixDeCat]

REIT UPDATE -

REITS have seen a second wave of speculative buying, some up over 100% (again, after losing that much a few trading days ago - "relief rallies"). There is still no guarantee which will will bite the dust, but suffice it to say, 1st quarter is going to be bad and happy days are not right around the corner. Although lots of speculators have been picking through the debris looking for bargains.

Here are the ones Ive been tracking for years:



I have REML for a trade only, but its a very risky 2x leveraged note. Its payments are considered other income and trading it is not reported to the IRS, so you have to break down all your buys and sales individually on Form 8949, which is a pain in the ass. There is also a redemption clause so you could lose almost 100% of your principal if Credit Suisse pulls the plug on them. Better to avoid them if you dont like any of these factors.

 

[jpiniero]

Tesla to furlough workers, cut salaries amid coronavirus shutdowns: report

Tesla Inc. undefined will cut salaries and furlough non-essential workers at its U.S. facilities until they are able to reopen amid the coronavirus pandemic,...

www.marketwatch.com

Tesla is furloughing all of their factory workers and cutting pay of the rest of the employees.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Does anyone else honestly think we have seen the market low point or am I the only crazy one that thinks otherwise?

 

[dasherHampton]

I believe this pandemic will cripple the renewable energy sector for a while. Everything from electric car companies to solar panel producers.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Time to start shitting bricks instead of living in a denial.

Coronavirus fallout: One-third of Americans missed rent payments in April

As the novel coronavirus pandemic causes mass layoffs and financial disruption, 31% of U.S. renters did not pay April rent on time.

finance.yahoo.com

Come May mortgage/rent payments will be a bloodbath. This is 2009 on steroids.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Fauci said some optimistic stuff today. Maybe that is keeping the roller coaster climbing before its inevitable weekly plunge.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Time to start shitting bricks instead of living in a denial.

Coronavirus fallout: One-third of Americans missed rent payments in April

As the novel coronavirus pandemic causes mass layoffs and financial disruption, 31% of U.S. renters did not pay April rent on time.

finance.yahoo.com

Come May mortgage/rent payments will be a bloodbath. This is 2009 on steroids.

That probably explains the 50-90% drop in many reits, especially those that were forced to deleveradge at a big loss as is being disclosed by many names the past few days.

Many of those stocks have partially recovered price wise by speculators, but until we see how the rest of 2020 turns out we wont know who will make and who will not.

 

[KB]

Does anyone else honestly think we have seen the market low point or am I the only crazy one that thinks otherwise?

I think this is a bull trap but I could certainly be wrong. Every recession has one or two bull traps where people think the good times will return soon and rush to buy back in, only to realize things are worse than expected. I think we will find out tomorrow what we have coming. If we get another 6 million new unemployment claims we should see the market realize things aren't so good.

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

Definitely a bull trap, but superpowered due to our boy JPow and his money printer
Today's rally is probably because Old Bernie has been taken out back and shot, as well as tomorrow's oil talks ("buy the rumor, sell the news")

Great to be market "bisexual" though - have some long puts on GLD + IWM, medium calls on UUP (bear), but also daytrading calls (made a bunch on IWM + USO calls today)

 

[JEDI]

Does anyone else honestly think we have seen the market low point or am I the only crazy one that thinks otherwise?

today ended at session highs.
so people are optimistic about tomorrows unemployment numbers?

or is the 8M+ expected new filings priced in already?
if the actual #s are 8M tomorrow, then the market will be little changed throughout tomorrow?

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

Not to repeat memes, but "it's priced in", and "stonks only go up"
Might be a selloff tomorrow though - I certainly wouldn't want to be holding over the long market weekend.

Also classic volatility trap

 

[ponyo]

Does anyone else honestly think we have seen the market low point or am I the only crazy one that thinks otherwise?

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Deer in a headlights?

Not sure what you're trying you insinuate.... the down market is over?

 

[jpiniero]

or is the 8M+ expected new filings priced in already?
if the actual #s are 8M tomorrow, then the market will be little changed throughout tomorrow?

Market will probally go up if the new filings # blows past 8M.

 

[Charmonium]

As of 2017, gig workers made up about a third of the labor force. As a general rule, I don't think they're eligible for unemployment. So the only thing they're going to see from the first round of stimulus is a measly $1200.

That might be enough to live for several months if you're in Thailand, Philippines, etc. But for the vast majority of such people, that's not even a bandaid.

Since roughly 70% of our GDP is created by consumer spending, that's going to be one huge, sucking chest wound for the economy.

Maybe many if not most gig works will be able to continue to work between now and whenever strict quarantining phases into something less austere. But I don't know how realistic that is.

 

[jpiniero]

As of 2017, gig workers made up about a third of the labor force. As a general rule, I don't think they're eligible for unemployment. So the only thing they're going to see from the first round of stimulus is a measly $1200.

That might be enough to live for several months if you're in Thailand, Philippines, etc. But for the vast majority of such people, that's not even a bandaid.

Since roughly 70% of our GDP is created by consumer spending, that's going to be one huge, sucking chest wound for the economy.

Maybe many if not most gig works will be able to continue to work between now and whenever strict quarantining phases into something less austere. But I don't know how realistic that is.

Pretty sure 1099ers getting something similar to UI (temporarily though?) was part of the bailout bill.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Not to repeat memes, but "it's priced in", and "stonks only go up"
Might be a selloff tomorrow though - I certainly wouldn't want to be holding over the long market weekend.

Also classic volatility trap

Makes sense, but SPX will do something stupid and irrational like markets always do go back to 3000 (October 2019 levels). I'm still shorting it from here on up and will stop loss at new all-time highs. Once this is all done, I plan to go heavy into IAU and GBTC with my spare cash because the fed broke the dollar long before this infinite QE.

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

I originally thought we would retest lows around mid-Apr (and jumped into SPY 4/17 220Ps early), but that was before JPow went all brrrrrr.

Think that we trade sideways for a bit (if we break SPY ~278, we're most likely headed for 300), and ultimately retest / break through previous lows. Unfortunately in the options game, timing is absolutely critical. My 4/17 220Ps got murdered (IV/theta is a b*tch) - salvaged what I could and rolled them into later IWM puts.

Speaking of irrationality, look at the cojones on this autist!
Brothers, the time has come for the ultimate YOLO. [$780k 6/19 SPX 1500P]
Currently down $550K :O