Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[dasherHampton]

10% drop on < $10k? Eh - I doubt they notice or even look at their statements.

I have a feeling that a lot of their accounts will drop quite a bit more than that.

 

[KB]

What is everyone's thoughts on containment? At this point is there even much care to trying to contain?

What containment seems to be doing is just slowing the spread from something that could be 1-2 months timeframe, into something that can be 6+ months timeframe.

Which do you think is worse for the economy and such? I would argue the long timeframe is worse, no?

But maybe I'm wrong... and instead of factories shutting down for 1-2 months they instead have people coming in and out in shifts... sick round leaves, recovered round comes back, sick round leaves, recovered come back, etc...?

Or maybe I'm just being nuts here and have no idea since I've never been a part of any major epidemic

I am not an epidemiologist, so take this with a grain of salt; however I don't know of any time in history in which a contagious disease has had this kind of lag time. Flu is 1 - 3 days; however the coronavirus has reports of 10 - 14 days before symptoms show up, during which the time the person feels fine, but is spreading the disease. That is a game-changer and makes containment extrememly difficult. Closing borders like many countries have done will shut down the economy.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

UPDATE 6: The technical halt will remain in effect for the remainder of the day on TSX, TSX Venture and TSX Alpha. As a result, the TSX Market on Close Facility will not run today. We apologize for the inconvenience.

 

[ponyo]

I was shocked to see the large selloff in TSLA. Hope you are doing ok.

Oh I'm bleeding and dying. It's never fun to lose multiple six figures daily. But I rather go down with the ship rather than give up my TSLA shares voluntarily. I'm watching gold and silver prices and either this stock market selloff is fake or the gold/silver is fake. You would think gold would've hit $2,000 /oz with the type of nasty stock market selloff we had the past couple of days. But nope, gold and silver are actually flat to down. Which is confusing the heck out of me. I don't know what to believe right now. But I going to keep faith and hold TSLA with my iron hands. I know TSLA is kicking ass. Q1 might not be the best but TSLA is positioned awesome for the future and they're going to completely dominate in the coming years. I will sell all my gold/silver/platinum and put it all in TSLA if this stupid coronavirus selloff continues.

 

[jpiniero]

I could see Tesla going back to pre-meme levels, which would be around 300.

 

[ponyo]

I could see Tesla going back to pre-meme levels, which would be around 300.

Nothing is impossible. I can also see TSLA rallying to $1,200-1,300 when people realize the world isn't going to end. My guess is TSLA at $1,200-1,300 sometime this year is far more likely than TSLA revisiting the $300 level. Like I said, nothing is impossible but I think $300 is super unlikely unless we have 2008 type of meltdown. All I know is TSLA at $300 would be the buy of the century. I would mortgage my house and put everything in TSLA at that level. My guess is we're pretty close to short term bottom here. I'm actually very relaxed and calm right now and feel so much better about TSLA price now than yesterday or today.

 

[jpiniero]

I think we are just getting started honestly. The virus doesn't have to become a pandemic to cause a recession.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Looks like another 2% haircut so far in the futures market. I did not expect things to collapse this quickly.

Talking heads, traders, etc., were making proclamations on CNBC the past serveral days such as:

-"Man, look at Apple, up 10 points so far this morning. I guess you should have bought this dip!! " (It later fell by those 10 and an additional 15 more).

-"Our fund is looking to buy good names at cheap prices" (meanwhile market is recovering sharply from steep losses) "this too shall pass and I want to get in now!" (by the end of the day today the market reversed considerably and took back all the gains).

-"Buying stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft at these prices is a gift!!!!" (Its no gift if you overpay)

-"Overall market fundamentals are strong, this is no time to sell but to buy those stocks you always wanted at a discount" (those discounts keep growing)

 

[FelixDeCat]

Pete Najarian was talking about a trader who bought thousands VIX call contracts on Monday betting on huge volatility this week for .25 cents each. On paper, assuming he/she did not sell, they would have made $30,000,000.

 

[local]

Not exactly the same but I moved my 401k to the guaranteed crap return last week before the selloff started. I'm seeing all these red numbers as green right now.

 

[jpiniero]

Looking like more red at open. QQQ is now under 200 premarket.

Edit: Bonus: Trump has muzzled some expert at the CDC or something. They must be legit worried about it spreading now.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Looking like more red at open. QQQ is now under 200 premarket.

QQQ $190-192 is my target Ive been looking at since last week when the selling started. Being that it got below $200 this fast, Im selling my puts now.

Nothing has reallly changed so it may go lower but its too much to leave on tge table if short term sentiment changes.

 

[ponyo]

Sold my MRK position I've held for 16 years. Rolled the entire proceed into more TSLA shares this morning. Zero fvck given about the selloff. Iron hands baby.

 

[Fritzo]

This is an OUTSTANDING opportunity to make some serious gains in your 401K. The stock drops are all panic driven, so any shares purchased in the coming weeks will be at a serious discount. When the virus thing is contained, everything should bounce back fairly quickly as the underlying economy engine is still very strong. If the drop lasts 4-8 weeks and comes back in spring, we could see 20% returns this year!

On the other hand, if this virus thing turns out to be an issue that takes 3-4 months, it could sabotage the economy and cause a downward spiral, leading to a recession. Not likely, but that's a real risk...

 

[FelixDeCat]

Id be careful buying anything right now. Dont be a hero. Ive already posted all the silly things Ive heard about dip buying certain stocks and they all have egg on their face because they bought way too soon.

Better to miss out on some gain than to participate in lots of losses.

Just stay away.

 

[ponyo]

Id be careful buying anything right now. Dont be a hero. Ive already posted all the silly things Ive heard about dip buying certain stocks and they all have egg on their face because they bought way too soon.

Better to miss out on some gain than to participate in lots of losses.

Just stay away.

I'm not trying to be a hero. I'm trying to make millions. Strangely as it sounds with Tesla stock in free fall, I don't know any other stock or investment that I feel is safer and will generate the crazy future returns than TSLA. Which is why I will be selling my gold and silver next week. It's time.

 

[ponyo]

SPCE is green beacon in sea of red right now. Chamath Palihapitiya learned from TSLA and is controlling SPCE stock with other insiders rather than letting hedge funds, shortsellers, and MM control it. Well done Chamath.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Id be careful buying anything right now. Dont be a hero. Ive already posted all the silly things Ive heard about dip buying certain stocks and they all have egg on their face because they bought way too soon.

Better to miss out on some gain than to participate in lots of losses.

Just stay away.

This is an OUTSTANDING opportunity to make some serious gains in your 401K. The stock drops are all panic driven, so any shares purchased in the coming weeks will be at a serious discount. When the virus thing is contained, everything should bounce back fairly quickly as the underlying economy engine is still very strong. If the drop lasts 4-8 weeks and comes back in spring, we could see 20% returns this year!

On the other hand, if this virus thing turns out to be an issue that takes 3-4 months, it could sabotage the economy and cause a downward spiral, leading to a recession. Not likely, but that's a real risk...

Truf on both accounts.

I believe the phrase for trying to buy "the low" is "trying to catch a falling knife"


That said, I just maxed out benefits for my ROTH IRA (and my spouses) - total of $24k... And I am forever thankful that I put those contributions in a simple money market fund instead of my usual retirement investment.


But anyhow, recovery isn't going to be overnight. I would rather invest on the first day of significant reduction of spreading than trying to find the low point.

 

[Scarpozzi]

This is an OUTSTANDING opportunity to make some serious gains in your 401K. The stock drops are all panic driven, so any shares purchased in the coming weeks will be at a serious discount. When the virus thing is contained, everything should bounce back fairly quickly as the underlying economy engine is still very strong. If the drop lasts 4-8 weeks and comes back in spring, we could see 20% returns this year!

On the other hand, if this virus thing turns out to be an issue that takes 3-4 months, it could sabotage the economy and cause a downward spiral, leading to a recession. Not likely, but that's a real risk...

For me, it'll be 20+ years before I retire, but this is blip can have cascading effects. I don't have many options in my accounts to reallocate anything. The money market account I can move to won't let me reinvest quickly....I think it's 20% over a 12 month rolling calendar. That's pretty bad if you get your money stuck there and this does blow over.

 

[ponyo]

I'm seeing some more green shoots on my screen. AMD and Nvidia are also fighting the good fight.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

I believe the phrase for trying to buy "the low" is "trying to catch a falling knife"

Most people will follow this advice but then end up frantically chasing a rocket after things look good and end up with worse cost averages anyway.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

For me, it'll be 20+ years before I retire, but this is blip can have cascading effects. I don't have many options in my accounts to reallocate anything. The money market account I can move to won't let me reinvest quickly....I think it's 20% over a 12 month rolling calendar. That's pretty bad if you get your money stuck there and this does blow over.

Cascading effects? The point of retirement (IMO) is to cruise control to it. 2019 was up over 20% if I recall.. even if 2020 is down 20% - over the course of your retirement gathering (30-40 years) the average net annual increase should be somewhere in the ballpark of 5-8%.

I do like the concept of buying dips though - buy towards low points knowing that it will recover substantially. Why? If it doesn't recover you're going to have a shit-ton bigger problems in life than your retirement.

If I had the money that I had today in 2008 (I was still in college) I would have massively shoveled money into the market after the housing collapse.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I remember the dot com crash and the financial crises crash. Both looked like this one. You will see good stocks ralley intraday and maybe stabilize only to see them go lower a few trading days later.

Be careful of illusions and mirages. Some will return to downward slides, some will be flat to higher for a while then fall in sympathy with the market later. When it rains on Wall Street everyone gets wet.

I flipped some NUGT this morning on a horrendous 25% crash, but I'm not buying to hold, just a daytrade.

 

[brianmanahan]

wake me up when we're down %30

 

[Fritzo]

Truf on both accounts.

I believe the phrase for trying to buy "the low" is "trying to catch a falling knife"


That said, I just maxed out benefits for my ROTH IRA (and my spouses) - total of $24k... And I am forever thankful that I put those contributions in a simple money market fund instead of my usual retirement investment.


But anyhow, recovery isn't going to be overnight. I would rather invest on the first day of significant reduction of spreading than trying to find the low point.

I specifically said "401K" too...they're typically managed accounts that buy shares on a schedule, so the same shares your fund was buying at $400 may now cost $300.