Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[Fritzo]

I'm seeing some more green shoots on my screen. AMD and Nvidia are also fighting the good fight.

Check out Zoom too...video conferencing is a good idea right now

 

[Roger Wilco]

How are AMD and NV going to manage if TSMC and Samsung get nailed by the virus? And how will Intel manage without all of it's foundries?

 

[jpiniero]

How are AMD and NV going to manage if TSMC and Samsung get nailed by the virus? And how will Intel manage without all of it's foundries?

The big immediate problem right now for them is at the end of the pipeline, ie: system builders. That work is pretty much all in China.

 

[snoopy7548]

Yesterday I was tempted to get into $SPY puts (wallstreetbets briefly warped my mind), but then I realized I would be way out of my league since I don't completely understand it.

I'm not changing anything. My 401k is still 90/10, investing the max every pay period. Though I will say I got excited and bought $1k of VTSAX on Monday and $500 last night - I have a separate investment account that is 100% VTSAX, no real purpose for the money but nice to have in case I need it in 5-10 years. I'll slow that down a bit - maybe invest $250/week from here on out.

We just passed 10/2019 levels. If you weren't excited about buying then, don't get too excited about buying now.

This should put it into perspective...

 

[nOOky]

Not exactly the same but I moved my 401k to the guaranteed crap return last week before the selloff started. I'm seeing all these red numbers as green right now.

Lucky you! My co-worker finally ditched his guaranteed interest in favor of some mutual funds just 2 weeks ago because he was sick of losing out.

 

[local]

Lucky you! My co-worker finally ditched his guaranteed interest in favor of some mutual funds just 2 weeks ago because he was sick of losing out.

Ouch, that is kind of like how I started my 401k the week before the housing crisis started except I had no money to begin with.

 

[jpiniero]

Yesterday I was tempted to get into $SPY puts (wallstreetbets briefly warped my mind), but then I realized I would be way out of my league since I don't completely understand it.

I'm not changing anything. My 401k is still 90/10, investing the max every pay period. Though I will say I got excited and bought $1k of VTSAX on Monday and $500 last night - I have a separate investment account that is 100% VTSAX, no real purpose for the money but nice to have in case I need it in 5-10 years. I'll slow that down a bit - maybe invest $250/week from here on out.

We just passed 10/2019 levels. If you weren't excited about buying then, don't get too excited about buying now.

This should put it into perspective...

View attachment 17609

That last chart should really scare you. Imagine if the market went back to just 2015 levels, people would be crying Great Depression. This Fed-pumped rally is just not sustainable. They will try though, wouldn't be surprised if rates are cut to zero next week.

 

[Fritzo]

That last chart should really scare you. Imagine if the market went back to just 2015 levels, people would be crying Great Depression. This Fed-pumped rally is just not sustainable. They will try though, wouldn't be surprised if rates are cut to zero next week.

Yeah, was just talking about that. The economy is credit card rich right now. If we take a dump, there's no safety net the Fed can throw out.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Yeah, was just talking about that. The economy is credit card rich right now. If we take a dump, there's no safety net the Fed can throw out.

b-b-but we need to write-off student loan debt.

 

[zinfamous]

b-b-but we need to write-off student loan debt.

why not?

I'm really not interested in the predictable revival of senseless conservative talking points every time we see the same predictable dip as the unquestionable direct result of failed conservative policies...which always conveniently exist to provide the same derivative talking point about why we suddenly can't do the thing that every fucking adult human knows we should be doing, at this time, because for some reason things are suddenly so bad right now.

like goddamn clockwork.

 

[jpiniero]

why not?

Because anyone who has paid student loans in the past would be jealous. And if it's a one time thing, the future. Plus, and this is quite relevant, there has to be a limit to how high the deficit goes. The way things are going we will find out soon enough.

It'd be much better to try to get graduates to actually make money from their degree, even if that means forcing them to graduate in majors where there's actually a chance they can afford to pay their student loans back. Bring back the trades, etc.

 

[zinfamous]

oh shit, this is the stock market thread. There's like 5 coronavirus threads and at least 2 dedicated to market and coronavirus, lol.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The PPT put a big smiley face on the close and bought tons of calls to do it.. Look for some stabilization next week in anticipation of the fed announcement.

 

[jpiniero]

oh shit, this is the stock market thread. There's like 5 coronavirus threads and at least 2 dedicated to market and coronavirus, lol.

Don't worry it's all connected anyway.

 

[ponyo]

Because anyone who has paid student loans in the past would be jealous. And if it's a one time thing, the future. Plus, and this is quite relevant, there has to be a limit to how high the deficit goes. The way things are going we will find out soon enough.

It'd be much better to try to get graduates to actually make money from their degree, even if that means forcing them to graduate in majors where there's actually a chance they can afford to pay their student loans back. Bring back the trades, etc.

I'm jealous of the bailout Wall Street got during and after the '08 meltdown. I would've made a killing if they let it completely crash. I don't buy into if Bernie gets elected, the stock market is fvcked scare or any scare about Trump. Honestly I don't think it matters too much who's in the office as long as the opposite party controls the Congress so no shit of importance can get passed or done. Gridlock is best. The less you let the idiots in DC touch or screw up the system, the better.

If Bernie is elected and he wants to wipe out the student loan debt, have at it.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I'm jealous of the bailout Wall Street got during and after the '08 meltdown. I would've made a killing if they let it completely crash. I don't buy into if Bernie gets elected, the stock market is fvcked scare or any scare about Trump. Honestly I don't think it matters too much who's in the office as long as the opposite party controls the Congress so no shit of importance can get passed or done. Gridlock is best. The less you let the idiots in DC touch or screw up the system, the better.

If Bernie is elected and he wants to wipe out the student loan debt, have at it.

Majority of bailouts were all paid back with interest. Can't be too mad there IMO.

If there is one thing people should be pissed off about as far as the 08' meltdown it's the lack of criminal prosecution.

 

[jpiniero]

I don't buy into if Bernie gets elected, the stock market is fvcked scare or any scare about Trump.

Any kind of real tax hike kills the stock market bubble. And it's a loooong way down.

 

[brianmanahan]

Any kind of real tax hike kills the stock market bubble. And it's a loooong way down.

PE10 is ridiculously high anyway, it's gotta go down at some point. wouldn't be surprised by another %30-40 haircut

 

[PlanetJosh]

Looks like we're saved. Today Cramer said that Tuesday may be the day to buy. Notice he won't and can't say "will be" the day to buy. He's too smart to make a commitment like that. And anyway if he's wrong he'll just say on Tuesday and Wednesday "Well I was wrong. It just goes to show you how so very tricky these virus things can be."

 

[alcoholbob]

That last chart should really scare you. Imagine if the market went back to just 2015 levels, people would be crying Great Depression. This Fed-pumped rally is just not sustainable. They will try though, wouldn't be surprised if rates are cut to zero next week.

Hope we aren't in for another lost decade like 1999-2009 when long term bonds outperformed the stock market. S&P earnings negative in 2019 yet the market went up 30%. With no prospects for growth in 2020, only natural for all this to correct itself.

 

[ponyo]

Hope we aren't in for another lost decade like 1999-2009 when long term bonds outperformed the stock market. S&P earnings negative in 2019 yet the market went up 30%. With no prospects for growth in 2020, only natural for all this to correct itself.

All I know is the world has crazy amount of money and it has to go somewhere. It's seeking any kind of growth and it's not going to find it in bonds. People may flee stocks short term but they will always come back long term because that's where you'll find the growth. So growth > value. At least that's my investing philosophy.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Looks like we're saved. Today Cramer said that Tuesday may be the day to buy. Notice he won't and can't say "will be" the day to buy. He's too smart to make a commitment like that. And anyway if he's wrong he'll just say on Tuesday and Wednesday "Well I was wrong. It just goes to show you how so very tricky these virus things can be."

lol you gotta be bonkers to think the stock market is going up come Tuesday.

Most we would have is 1 day without OMG THE WORLD IS DYING news and you might have a +100 dow day or something, but the overall week is going to be the same I'm guessing.

If this continues then at MINIMAL I would predict seeing DOW numbers close 2017 amounts.

 

[alcoholbob]

All I know is the world has crazy amount of money and it has to go somewhere. It's seeking any kind of growth and it's not going to find it in bonds. People may flee stocks short term but they will always come back long term because that's where you'll find the growth. So growth > value. At least that's my investing philosophy.

In 2019 S&P went up 30% and gold miners went up 40%. Lots money looking to go somewhere with no earnings growth or yield will probably just result in stagflation, at least that's what Alan Greenspan is proposing.

 

[TheVrolok]

Hmm. Just took a quick peak at the Target 2020 fund in my mother's TIRA, remains 49% stock. She's considering retirement next year at 67, trying to decide if it's worth reducing that further now to avoid some of what may be coming in terms of a correction. I'm usually not one to speculate much, just kinda a "hmm" moment today.

 

[alcoholbob]

Hmm. Just took a quick peak at the Target 2020 fund in my mother's TIRA, remains 49% stock. She's considering retirement next year at 67, trying to decide if it's worth reducing that further now to avoid some of what may be coming in terms of a correction. I'm usually not one to speculate much, just kinda a "hmm" moment today.

With 3 rate cuts priced in for this year I'd imagine you can expect some capital gains from moving to bonds.