Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[ponyo]

That's was fun shakedown. The market was getting bit frothy, especially tech names. MM flushed everything down to clean up the air and shake out the weak hands. I sold Feb 21 $870 Tesla puts for $15 during the swoosh down and purchased some Feb 28 $1,200 Tesla calls for $2.60. $1,200 calls for next week are lottery tickets. I don't expect Tesla to hit $1,200 next week but if Tesla breaks $1,000 on Monday or Tuesday, $1,200 calls should turn into multiple baggers. Worth a shot.

 

[FelixDeCat]

SPCE and TSLA consolidating for now.

Entire market taking a dump.

 

[FelixDeCat]

If I remember the last bubble from 2000, the market had a few violent pullbacks in Feb / March 2000 and recovered somewhat, but did not really start to plummet until April.

 

[ThatsABigOne]

Looks to be regular market movement.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Looks to be regular market movement.

Just profit taking. It does happen, just dont panic.

Later this year I think we see at least a 15-20% correction.

 

[dasherHampton]

Physical gold holders:

At what price point do you consider exploring a sale of your holdings? I read recently that a big bank (Citi I think) said $2000 gold is likely.

Or are you going to hold until you die, as a hedge against a world economic meltdown?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Physical gold holders:

At what price point do you consider exploring a sale of your holdings? I read recently that a big bank (Citi I think) said $2000 gold is likely.

Or are you going to hold until you die, as a hedge against a world economic meltdown?

I currently have two ounces of gold (recently purchased) and may buy more. They are a good place to store value for a rainy day,. I figure if it does reach $2,000 oz that might be the new long term parking spot for gold.

When it first hit $1,000 in 1980, I remember as a child everyone rushing to sell all their gold chains, rings, etc. It took 30+ years to see that price again, but once it did it has held for almost a decade. Now $1500 is the new normal. So I think a $2,000 number will just be another plateau.

***Warning - Political speculation ahead***

Part of me thinks Trump is not going to react well if the Democratic nominee wins the election. If Trump loses, I suspect he is probably going to refuse to acknowledge the results, and all hell is going to break loose in the market and gold will go well over $2,000.

 

[ponyo]

Physical gold holders:

At what price point do you consider exploring a sale of your holdings? I read recently that a big bank (Citi I think) said $2000 gold is likely.

Or are you going to hold until you die, as a hedge against a world economic meltdown?

I bought lot of gold from 2015 to 2018. I thought about selling some couple of times but just been too lazy to do it. That's why I like physical gold. If it was paper gold, I would've sold long time ago. But then again, I would have funneled the money into more Tesla shares so maybe I would've been better off with paper gold. I do enjoy holding physical gold. There's nothing like playing with pile of gold coins. Makes me feel like a pirate. There's something magical about holding gold and silver in your hands.

I do think gold is headed higher but I pay very little attention to the opinions of the big banks. I prefer to inverse them rather than follow their advice. I have wide variety of gold coins. Some 1 oz coins like the Queens Beast Lion, Griffin, Dragon, and Unicorn are worth way over spot. So selling those would be a pain to find the right buyer. And there are some coins like the 2009 UHR Double Eagle, 2013 Reverse Proof Buffalo, 2016 Mercury Dimes, Standing Liberty, and Walking Liberty Centennial coins I'll never sell regardless of gold spot price. I enjoy those gold coins too much to ever sell it. But the rest, I don't have too much attachment so I'm willing to sell for around spot to Apmex when the time comes.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Futures looking bad, gold spiking big time, now $1633

 

[FelixDeCat]

Futures looking bad, gold spiking big time, now $1633

Gold continues upward spike..... now $1664

Futures currently off 2%

 

[PlanetJosh]

Well if anyone's afraid to admit they bought AMD just before the big virus crash or downturn I'll go ahead. I bought a ton of shares at 56 & change a few days ago, I didn't really take the new virus threat seriously, and by the end of the day it was at 53 & change where it is now on Sunday. But as I said earlier I'm in it 'till end of year so counting on or hoping for a huge 10 month gain.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Blood in the streets. Sold my NUGT calls for now.

 

[ponyo]

Bought more TSLA. Feeling super bullish.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

Fast market declared. on pretty much all exchanges. Seeing delayed fills coming back from all exchanges. careful with your ordering.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I dont necessarily think this is virus related selling but just profit taking with the virus being the catalyst. All markets have rallied bigly since last Decembers trade deal.

Violent selloffs are sometimes followed by equally hard buy ups. But then there are times when selling begets more selling which is called capitulation.

My call for QQQ $190 stands sometme this year. Current price $223.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

I dont necessarily think this is virus related selling but just profit taking with the virus being the catalyst. All markets have rallied bigly since last Decembers trade deal.

Violent selloffs are sometimes followed by equally hard buy ups. But then there are times when selling begets more selling which is called capitulation.

My call for QQQ $190 stands sometme this year. Current price $223.

Yeah it's absolutely virus related selling. Without question.

 

[ponyo]

I dont necessarily think this is virus related selling but just profit taking with the virus being the catalyst. All markets have rallied bigly since last Decembers trade deal.

Violent selloffs are sometimes followed by equally hard buy ups. But then there are times when selling begets more selling which is called capitulation.

My call for QQQ $190 stands sometme this year. Current price $223.

Unless you have skin in the game, your QQQ $190 call is meaningless.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Unless you have skin in the game, your QQQ $190 call is meaningless.

This is a sensative topic. I have learned that people have natural orientations. Some are natural bulls, some are natural bears. They may sometimes do the opposite of their nature, but usually revert to their nature.

I realized a long time ago that I am a natural bear, so I look for opportunities to make money in stock or market declines. Over the long term bears do poorly and I can attest to this. Its always hard to make bear money.

Buying and holding good names is always the best strategy, like Tesla or Apple.

I had puts on the QQQs on Friday good for this week. Not much just a couple and was doing quite well. Sadly I got taken out the last 15 mins of trading when good news about a WFC settlement was released prior to the close causing banks to rally and my puts were losing value quickly, so I sold them.

As you can see today, i regret that decision. Thankfully I kept my NUGT calls and locked in profits this morning.

Right now options are very expensive because of volatility, so buying puts or calls are TOO expensive.

A market ralley is not out of the question, but gold will likely hold its gains.

 

[ponyo]

I'm not saying QQQ won't hit $190. All I'm saying is talk is cheap, and what good is a prediction if you don't act or profit from it? The hard part is always the timing. If you could time it and guess correctly when it will happen, you obviously can make bank. But your inaction says you don't have confidence on when it will happen. So that makes your prediction worthless. Broken clock is right twice a day. Any fool can say something and be eventually right if given long enough time frame. At least Jim Chanos makes money once a decade with his bearish position. Because he has skin in the game. That's all.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Around 189-192 used to be resistance in the QQQs until the Phase 1 Trade deal was signed and the market took off with Fed backing (again!) with two "insurance" rate cuts last year.





Futures are up about 1% currently due to a small pop in Asia. I suspect bargain hunters might start dipping toes. Barring any new bad news, tomorrow will likely be an up day since traders first inclination is to "buy the dip".

The chance of making up all this lost ground on back to back days of buying and no more bad news for a while could mean brand new highs, but I think the market needs to digest these winnings.

 

[PlanetJosh]

No need to worry, "as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone." (part of a Trump tweet.) Not sure if it was already mentioned in the last couple weeks. I'll feel bad if he's right even though the virus would be gone.

President Trump tweeted the coronavirus could weaken as weather warms. Scientists say it's too early to know | CNN

On Friday morning, President Trump tweeted about his phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the response to the coronavirus outbreak.

www.cnn.com

 

[FelixDeCat]

Metals not catching a bid for some reason.

 

[ponyo]

Metals not catching a bid for some reason.

Because the banks naked short the heck out of it anytime gold and silver appear to break out or move up too much. Did you see that multibillion dollar dump of gold futures yesterday afternoon? Tell me who sells like that if they're long? Not even whales dump all at once. And this kind of dumping and manipulation happen way too often in the gold and silver futures market. It's the government in cooperation with the big banks. I know people think you're crazy if you mention it but that's the only explanation that makes sense to me. People are already panicking about the stock market dropping right now. Gold should be catching a bid. But it's manipulated down right now to make it appear things are not that bad and people are not panicking. So I stopped caring about the metals market. It's way more manipulated than the stock market. And we know how manipulated the stock market is.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I have read that many times from many people, that naked shorting of metals by banks using synthetic paper is a time honored tradition. In a way maybe its a good thing in that it allows people to buy physical gold while they play games with metals futures.

The people who have really gotten the shaft are silver investors. Gold has had a nice rally but silver has not come along for the ride.

And just in case you were wondering, I still have not bought any QQQ puts. The markets are becoming bearish all of a sudden and rushing for puts, making them more expensive.

There will be hard rally its just a matter of time.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Smile Direct shareholders frowning after hours on wider than expected losses and declining revenue.

Virgin Galactic reports higher expenses sales missed estimates. Shares in for hard landing AH.