Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[zinfamous]

goddamn it you pumpers, you! lol congrats.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Are you still in? Or did you sell with your toilet paper hands? . That was fun to watch today. Volume was super heavy. Lot of FOMO. I can smell it. I don't know when SPCE will correct but when it does, I'm still not selling. That's to flush out the weak hands before the real move up. And that move up will be parabolic. Think Beyond Meat and Tilray retarded parabolic move. So today is just prelude to what's to come. I think we'll see $50 or possibly $100 this year. Even at $50, you're looking at ~$10 billion market cap stock which is nothing. This baby has lot of room to run. SPCE, take me to the moon!

That may be true. I can see a scenario for $50B and $250 share price. But the market is unlikely to bid it that high without an actual, functioning business with some demonstrated revenue growth to justify that type of valuation.

Fridays pop was mostly on the hope those revenues will start to come in with the transfer of one of their spaceships to a commercial port and peoples awareness of the companies representation as the only publicly traded space travel co.

This was the reason I took my quick couple of bucks and ran. I originally bought at $18 and sold at $19, only to see it go to $25.95 before buying and selling at near $28. I think $30 is in the bag next week, but then so might $25-$26. Earnings report is on 2/25 so we will see what updates we get.

 

[FelixDeCat]

goddamn it you pumpers, you! lol congrats.

This one is going to have some crazy ups and downs thats for sure. The options market on SPCE is pricing some pretty extreme volatility (pricey!).

 

[jpiniero]

Apple warned, blaming the beer virus. Should be fun tomorrow.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

These are the types of times where I personally don't feel qualified to ride these waves of risk.

Christ, there is nothing that I see right now that I feel comfortable investing in.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Apple warned, blaming the beer virus. Should be fun tomorrow.

At first I thought this was joke, but then the futures went from +.50 to -.75

Fun times.

 

[ponyo]

No beer virus in space and Tesla cars have biodefense mode. There's no safer place to be in than Tesla cars. Last time during SARS virus, cars sales increased in China. No one wants to ride in public trains, buses, or cabs with other people. Chinese are going to buy Tesla cars to keep their families safe.

 

[PlanetJosh]

This is just slimy conspiracy theory stuff from me about the recent Apple outlook report. But it crossed my mind if Cook and Apple are trying to make the economy look bad or actually make it bad and thereby making it easier for a Dem to win in November. Sorry.

 

[jpiniero]

This is just slimy conspiracy theory stuff from me about the recent Apple outlook report. But it crossed my mind if Cook and Apple are trying to make the economy look bad or actually make it bad and thereby making it easier for a Dem to win in November. Sorry.

Might take awhile for the Chinese Factories to get back to normal production levels, and that's if China manages to reel in the virus, which isn't going very well. For a company that's way too dependent on China, yes this could become a big problem for them. Note that Apple didn't actually give an updated guidance range.

 

[ponyo]

Made my first sale of SPCE. Sold 1/3 of shares at $33.50 and 1/3 of warrants at $20.50 to lock in some gains. Still holding 2/3 of shares and warrants along with 100% of the calls. I still think SPCE has lot further to run but selling some now will make it easier for me to hold on for the rest of the run. Those 1/3 shares and warrants I sold covered majority of my initial investment. So the rest are almost house money.

 

[ponyo]

SPCE is lifting off to orbit. It's going to make millionaires out of some lucky people and send others to the poor house. Imagine being short SPCE.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Good thing I sold my SPCE shares on Friday! LOL

In other news.....

GOLD just broke though $1606.... up $20 per ounce.

I bought my 2nd Australian 'roo last week.

 

[PlanetJosh]

So I was getting ready to buy AMD today for long term (several thousand $usd worth) to hold it to the end of the year then cash out. The video card tech company. Btw this is a serious post, no jokes or wild theories. It was at $55 before today so I figured it would drop a couple dollars because of the virus fears and the Apple report. But no it goes up and closed at over $56 today. I didn't buy it and don't know whether to wait for it to go down a bit or buy right away tomorrow - I'd hate to miss out on its incredible run up of the last year or two.

Another related issue with it I'll need advice on: was thinking about day trading AMD like 1 to 3 times a day meaning 1 to 3 buy and sells, no shorts. But if the stock keeps going up for months like it is then it's not practical to attempt day trading, right? Wouldn't you do better just leaving it in for several months assuming for the sake of the conversation it keeps on with its amazing rise?

Edit: I already have a frequent trader or day trader account at my bank broker so I don't have to go through the application process for it. And won't be margin borrowing, I've already transferred money from the money market account with them into my brokerage cash.

 

[ponyo]

Sold off another 1/3 of SPCE shares and warrants and half the calls this morning. I asked myself if I truly believed SPCE story. And the honest answer was no. I like the story but I'm not 100% convinced they will be able to compete with SpaceX and Blue Origin. Elon is my man, and I decided I rather have SPCE money in TSLA. I fear about missing out on TSLA. I don't have the same fear with SPCE.

 

[ponyo]

It's crazy. I just sold ten TSLA Feb 21 $1,100 covered calls for $5.13 each. So I collected $5,130 and long as TSLA doesn't close above $1,100 this Friday, I get to keep $5,130. If it closes over $1,100, then they can buy my shares for $1,100 each. TSLA volatility is just crazy.

 

[zinfamous]

So I was getting ready to buy AMD today for long term (several thousand $usd worth) to hold it to the end of the year then cash out. The video card tech company. Btw this is a serious post, no jokes or wild theories. It was at $55 before today so I figured it would drop a couple dollars because of the virus fears and the Apple report. But no it goes up and closed at over $56 today. I didn't buy it and don't know whether to wait for it to go down a bit or buy right away tomorrow - I'd hate to miss out on its incredible run up of the last year or two.

Another related issue with it I'll need advice on: was thinking about day trading AMD like 1 to 3 times a day meaning 1 to 3 buy and sells, no shorts. But if the stock keeps going up for months like it is then it's not practical to attempt day trading, right? Wouldn't you do better just leaving it in for several months assuming for the sake of the conversation it keeps on with its amazing rise?

Edit: I already have a frequent trader or day trader account at my bank broker so I don't have to go through the application process for it. And won't be margin borrowing, I've already transferred money from the money market account with them into my brokerage cash.

AMD is setting historical highs for like, 2 straight weeks. I feel like it's in danger zone right now of a major correction, but also very likely that that another dilution is on the way. All of this value is on news that is about 1/2 year old, just repeated again over the last couple of days....so the baked-in value was on news last year, and yet it keeps rising when reminded of the very same thing happening now (Google cloud rollout; US Navy Cray computer).

It's a very volatile stock and is a common target for day trading.

For me, I've been holding since 2016 and sold half my shares back in October to lock in some gains. It seems to me that buying in above their historical high is a bad idea right now, but then I was saying that buying in at $19, 25, 30+ were all bad ideas, lol. last I tried to buy in to increase my shares was ~$15 a few years ago. Like you, I expected early morning drops on those days of about a dollar or so, and they never dropped to my buy price. I never completed several orders of $7, $10, $15, over the last 4 years, haha

 

[woodman1999]

Anybody ever heard of or use EquityZen.com? Guy at work sent it to me. Seems interesting, but having a tough time wrapping my head around being able to be someones granted private stock and said private company not having a shit about it.

 

[hawkeye_wx]

I've also been wondering about AMD. I was ready to buy some during the market downturn a couple Decembers ago, but I chickened out. I'm certainly paying for that mistake now. All it does it go up. I know AMD has turned it around, but is it really worth $59 or is this just momentum taking it up? Heck, not too long ago it had paused in the upper 20s. Once it broke out of that pause it has been straight up. NVDA has also gone straight up and just shot right through its old crypto high.

 

[FelixDeCat]

SPCE $42 tomorrow. Just when you think its gone up too much, it just keeps going higher.

edit:

I would also be shocked not to see $50 by Friday, maybe $60 on Monday. Reminds me so much of the dot com bubble. The other stocks like BYND, TSLA, etc, are cult stocks. They can be any price when fundamentals dont matter.

 

[ponyo]

Farewell SPCE! Sold the remaining SPCE shares at $42. That was the price I saw in my vision so that's where my journey with SPCE ends. The profit from SPCE is going to be rolled over to TSLA shares. Thanks for the crazy ride!

 

[ponyo]

SPCE $42 tomorrow. Just when you think its gone up too much, it just keeps going higher.

edit:

I would also be shocked not to see $50 by Friday, maybe $60 on Monday. Reminds me so much of the dot com bubble. The other stocks like BYND, TSLA, etc, are cult stocks. They can be any price when fundamentals dont matter.

I haven't done DD on BYND but you're completely wrong on TSLA. Fundamentals matter very much with TSLA. It's why TSLA will be least $3,500 by 2025. Simple back of the napkin math easily support that price. But it's doubters like you that gives me the complete confidence to hold TSLA with iron hands.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I haven't done DD on BYND but you're completely wrong on TSLA. Fundamentals matter very much with TSLA. It's why TSLA will be least $3,500 by 2025. Simple back of the napkin math easily support that price. But it's doubters like you that gives me the complete confidence to hold TSLA with iron hands.

TSLA could be $3500 this year. A cult stock can be any price. No reason to sell now.

The trick is find the next one. Lemmings are in charge right now.

I bought some NUGT calls in the midst of the market madness.

 

[zinfamous]

I haven't done DD on BYND but you're completely wrong on TSLA. Fundamentals matter very much with TSLA. It's why TSLA will be least $3,500 by 2025. Simple back of the napkin math easily support that price. But it's doubters like you that gives me the complete confidence to hold TSLA with iron hands.

I swear, you up your Tesla price prediction by $500-1k every time you make this same comment.

 

[ponyo]

I swear, you up your Tesla price prediction by $500-1k every time you make this same comment.

That's because I was being super conservative and using lower growth rate. Margin of safety. But I'm now convinced TSLA will do 50%+ growth every year for at least another 5 years.

 

[ponyo]

TSLA could be $3500 this year. A cult stock can be any price. No reason to sell now.

The trick is find the next one. Lemmings are in charge right now.

I bought some NUGT calls in the midst of the market madness.

There's no reason for me to try to find next one. Because TSLA is the next one. It's not often you find once in generation company that's going to totally disrupt and change how we live. So when you find the next Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, etc., you hold it with your dear life and keep buying more every chance you get.