Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

If you like gold coins, I have a bunch I can sell to you for pretty close to spot.

I may have to take you up on that sometime. Right now, the only reason why I buy off Ebay is to use Paypal's 0% 6 month financing on purchases over $99.

 

[JEDI]

Fed rate cut odds have jumped significantly. Currently forecasting a cut by Summer and perhaps a second one by the end of the year.

sweet for my bonds

 

[FelixDeCat]

Hard to say what will happen this week.

Kramer suggests more selling.

Earnings season is not over yet but the biggest names are out of the way.

Currently the QQQs (top 100 tech stocks) stand at 219. The 52 week high is 225, so we have seen a 2.50% pull back so far.

Growing death toll from Cornoavirus, more cases being reported outside China. China is taking extreme measures. GDP expected to be impacted.

Might see more selling in markets worldwide as the economic impact is guaged. Other than that, good earnings reports might propel the US market back to new highs. Both seem possible.

Im almost completely neutral ATM.

 

[KB]

Oil stocks are the new tobacco, in ‘death knell phase,’ says Jim Cramer

CNBC’s Jim Cramer says is a sentiment shift for oil stocks is not fleeting. He compares the situation to the upending of consumer habits and regulations that...

www.marketwatch.com

Jim Cramer says to not buy Oil Stocks as they are in a "death knell". Jim Cramer is famously wrong, so it looks like that means it is the right time to buy.

 

[Brainonska511]

Kramer suggests more selling.

Cramer is a hack.

 

[ponyo]

Oil stocks are the new tobacco, in ‘death knell phase,’ says Jim Cramer

CNBC’s Jim Cramer says is a sentiment shift for oil stocks is not fleeting. He compares the situation to the upending of consumer habits and regulations that...

www.marketwatch.com

Jim Cramer says to not buy Oil Stocks as they are in a "death knell". Jim Cramer is famously wrong, so it looks like that means it is the right time to buy.

lol. It's best to inverse Cramer but even broken clock is right twice a day. Cramer is 100% spot on and right in this case. By all means, buy oil stocks and collect those juicy dividends as big funds exit their positions while you're left holding the bag. Oil stocks are the new tobacco stocks. Can't be owned. Might be cheap but it's going to be cancerous to your portfolio in the long run.

PS. All the money big funds get after selling their oil stock will be spent buying TSLA shares. You're seeing reallocation of resources and capital play out before your eyes. Pace is only going to increase in the coming years. Don's say I didn't warn you guys.

 

[ponyo]

TSLA hit $694,20 price today. I can't think of anymore funny price. But TSLA is going to $1,000 this year. My guess is it's going to shoot up to $1,800-$2,000 sometime this year before dropping back down at $800- $1,000 before the year's end. But who knows. But I do know TSLA is still the most undervalued stock on the entire Nasdaq and you're going to see TSLA hit $2,500 before 2025. And likely $10,000 to $20,000 before end of 2030. I know you guys think I'm crazy but just wait. Like I said, you guys are missing the next Apple and Amazon when it's staring right in your face.

 

[ponyo]

Now this is starting to feel like start of mini squeeze on TSLA shares. But this is just the beginning and still not the big squeeze. I'm starting to smell little bit of FOMO on TSLA shares from people who don't currently own it. But with TSLA, there's really not that many shares available to purchase, especially if you're a big fund. They can have my shares for $2,000. I might sell them some at $1,800 but if they want all my shares this year, I want $2,000 a share this year. But next year, my price goes up to $2,500. And every year, my price to sell is going to keep going up. So they should just offer me $2,000 a share now and get it over with.

 

[FelixDeCat]

GOOGLE reported AH and its off 4% to $1415 because revenue was off by a few million.

When GOOG makes $119 million PER DAY in profit why isn't it worth $3,000 per share?

 

[ponyo]

TSLA is powering up again in the premarket this morning. Currently trading at $845 as of 7:02 am this morning. While all this might seem crazy, I want to share another very good video by Dave Lee. It's the concept of "Dispersion of Belief." It's a long video but well worth the watch IMO.

 

[ponyo]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/ron-baron-tesla-to-hit-1-trillion-in-revenue-in-10-years.html

I agree with Ron. He was one of the few institutional investors who got and understood Tesla early on. People focus too much on the stock price when they should be looking at the marketcap. Tesla marketcap is still low compared to their potential. Tesla is minimum 10x play in the next 10 years.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Someone needs to call the FIRE DEPARTMENT - TSLA stock is on fire!

 

[ponyo]

Someone needs to call the FIRE DEPARTMENT - TSLA stock is on fire!

Too early for the fire truck. Plus Tesla on Autopilot might crash into the fire truck and cause even bigger fire.

And here's Ron Baron this morning talking about Tesla having $1 trillion in revenue in 10 years. Honestly, I think he's too low. He's assuming Tesla will sell 10 million cars a year in 2030. I think Tesla will sell double that. So $2 trillion in revenue but even that might be too low considering how big their solar and battery business will be. And full self driving. That's a game changer that's going to change history.

 

[ponyo]

If you're confused by Tesla, go test drive Tesla Model 3. Then you'll understand why electric vehicles and Tesla are the future. I test drove one the past Sunday and it blew my mind how good it was, and I had extremely high expectations going in. Here's my review.

https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/35-000-tesla-model-iii-is-coming-in-2017.2391383/post-40057215

 

[hawkeye_wx]

TSLA's rise is insane (not saying right or wrong, just insane)

We're at a point where some of these stocks (like AMD and TSLA), once they break through a resistance level, go straight to the moon.

 

[zinfamous]

TSLA's rise is insane (not saying right or wrong, just insane)

We're at a point where some of these stocks (like AMD and TSLA), once they break through a resistance level, go straight to the moon.

AMD can't go straight to the moon. They are like 30% the size of Intel and even command even less of the shared market that they both sell to. It is virtually impossible for them, in any reasonably current time, to suddenly become more valuable than Intel.

 

[ponyo]

Tesla to launch their own ride-sharing app with Tesla insurance.

https://electrek.co/2020/02/04/tesla-ride-sharing-app-driver-insurance/

So how much is Uber worth? $65 billion current market cap. How much is Progressive Insurance worth? $47 billion current market cap. How much is Tesla worth right now even after this run up? $162 billion market cap. These are just side markets for Tesla. Their real market is the trillion plus auto and trillion plus energy market. Autonomy is just going to be huge icing on the cake with giant cherry on top.

 

[FelixDeCat]

If you're confused by Tesla, go test drive Tesla Model 3. Then you'll understand why electric vehicles and Tesla are the future. I test drove one the past Sunday and it blew my mind how good it was, and I had extremely high expectations going in. Here's my review.

https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/35-000-tesla-model-iii-is-coming-in-2017.2391383/post-40057215

Surprised you did not give in and just buy one. Perhaps when it breaks a $1,000sh you just pay cash with covered call money.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Tesla to launch their own ride-sharing app with Tesla insurance.

https://electrek.co/2020/02/04/tesla-ride-sharing-app-driver-insurance/

So how much is Uber worth? $65 billion current market cap. How much is Progressive Insurance worth? $47 billion current market cap. How much is Tesla worth right now even after this run up? $162 billion market cap. These are just side markets for Tesla. Their real market is the trillion plus auto and trillion plus energy market. Autonomy is just going to be huge icing on the cake with giant cherry on top.

You make some good points, but I must point out that while the potential is there to tap Tesla owners for this opportunity, Uber and Progressive are mature businesses with millions of customers (like me!). So it might be premature to count their market caps into Tesla's just yet.

 

[FelixDeCat]

On a side note I bought 20 225 QQQ calls yesterday and dumped them at the open for a clean double. Sadly, they more than tripled later in the day.

Also flipped from CFRX from $7 to $8. This was a biotech stock got an investment from Pfizer who purchased shares in the .25 cent range. The stock then went up 5x to $1.25. Then CFRX did a secondary offering and then later announced a reverse split and the shares cratered to .55 cents ($5.50 post split this morning). I saw the recovery on very tiny volume and jumped in.

Overall a pretty good day...

 

[ponyo]

Surprised you did not give in and just buy one. Perhaps when it breaks a $1,000sh you just pay cash with covered call money.

Discipline and lot of willpower. I'll eventually get one. I want to buy Model Y for my daughter. But now is not the time.

Keeping eye on SPCE. Still holding my shares and warrants. Stock like this will just breakout on random days. Lot of speculative traders who made lot of money on TSLA might be looking for their next speculative plays. Doesn't take much money to move small market cap stock like SPCE to orbit.

 

[jpiniero]

Decent move back to flattish on the Fed Rate front in the past couple days. The "decent" job numbers might make Wall Street scared that they won't get another cut this year.

 

[JEDI]

is Options a safer/higher profit move than triple shorting oil?

 

[dasherHampton]

My GE buy paid off.

Banking about $3800 (gain+options) when it gets called away.

 

[JTsyo]

TSLA's rise is insane (not saying right or wrong, just insane)

We're at a point where some of these stocks (like AMD and TSLA), once they break through a resistance level, go straight to the moon.

Lots of shorts need to cover.