Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

Impressive returns.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

It is absolutely nuts (IMO) to think that Tesla is worth more than Ford + GM combined. Fucking. Nuts.

Seriously, I like Tesla. I like Elon Musk... but if you think they have some kind of lockdown on the electric car market you're just fucking nuts.

 

[ponyo]

It is absolutely nuts (IMO) to think that Tesla is worth more than Ford + GM combined. Fucking. Nuts.

Seriously, I like Tesla. I like Elon Musk... but if you think they have some kind of lockdown on the electric car market you're just fucking nuts.

lol.

Phones sold 2011: APPLE: 86 million NOKIA: 425 million
We all know how that went.

Tesla should be worth FAR more than Ford + GM combined because Ford & GM are going to $0. If you own any legacy automaker or supplier stock, you better sell now while it's still worth something. Ford, GM, and the dealerships are toast and dead. They just don't know it yet.

As side note, if the run in TSLA keeps up and the stock price reaches ~$555 and stays there or above for 6 months, Elon will get 1st of his 12 payday from Tesla. Elon signed 10 year 100% pay for performance package back in 2018 where he takes no salary and no bonus. Just strictly stock option awards he receives if TSLA shares hit certain prices, revenue, and EPITDA targets. And he has to hold each option awards for 5 years. The first award unlocks when TSLA stock market cap hits and maintains $100 billion. TSLA is at around $95 billion now. So the first reward is in sights. In order for Elon to get all 12 stock option awards, TSLA stock market cap needs to be $650 billion or higher in the next 8 years. I'm 100% confident Elon will get all 12 of his awards. I fully expect TSLA to be trillion dollar company along side Apple in the next 10 years and Elon to the be richest person on earth. Elon is going to pass Jeff Bezos as the richest person in the next 2-3 years or sooner. I pretty much guarantee it.

 

[ponyo]

Everyone was waiting for the next Steve Jobs. In meanwhile, the next Steve Jobs was already with us in Elon Musk. Elon is a visionary and he's going to be regarded as the most influential person of our generation and the 21st century. I'm telling you they're going to build monuments for Elon Musk before this is all said and done. He's huge win for humanity and this planet Earth. And he will be the reason why we go to Mars and hopefully colonize there.

 

[ponyo]

For people who are confused why Tesla stock just keeps rising and you don't understand or can't believe it, I HIGHLY recommend you watch this video. Dave is someone I follow, and I agree 100% with everything he said in this video. I ran my own financial profit model for Tesla back in 2018 after I first bought my shares and I came up with some mind blowing numbers on the future profit and stock price potential of Tesla. This is a long video but well worth the watch when you have the time. It might even change your life.

 

[ponyo]

Everyone knows the expression, "Don't fight the Fed."

Well soon, there's going to be new expression. "Don't fight the world governments." And "Fight climate change." Governments around the world are proposing and passing regulations against ICE vehicles and promoting clean energy like solar and greener future.
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/12/12/eu-releases-green-deal-key-points/

And big institutional investors like BlackRock are talking about shifting investment strategy to sustainability and reallocating capital to solve climate change. You're talking about big institutions that manages trillions of dollars in assets.

BlackRock CEO says the climate crisis is about to trigger 'a fundamental reshaping of finance'

The world's largest money manager believes the intensifying climate crisis will bring about a fundamental reshaping of finance.

www.cnbc.com

Not to keep plugging Tesla, but the company that's at the forefront and undisputed leader in this multi-trillion dollar space is Tesla. In fact, Tesla is the leader in multiple future trillion dollar industries. It's crazy not to invest in Tesla for the long term. Absolutely batshit crazy. Even with this stock price run up, Tesla remains the most undervalued stock in the entire Nasdaq IMO.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Bought 1000 SAVA $7.17 today.

Could have flipped for $7.70, but am hoping we see $8 or $9 again.

Shorts love beating it down, but it keeps going back up. Also they may do another secondary at any time so thats another risk at these elevated prices. The CEO bought 100,000 shares maybe some good news soon, who knows however.

 

[FelixDeCat]

4th person pleads guilty in $1B California energy scam

 

[ponyo]

CNBC interview with Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock. This is eyeopening interview and shows you how the big institutional investors are now thinking about climate change and world sustainability. When someone who manages $7 trillion dollars of investment money talks about how they want to invest in clean energy companies going forward, you need to pay close attention to what they're saying. You can tell from the interview Larry Fink is not just bullshitting and talking for television PR points. He really believes in this and is going to act accordingly. When you're investing, you need to see where the big whales are going and try to get in front of them or ride along with them. We just started 2020. At the end of this decade, people will look back and say this is when the big change occurred. We're at the tipping point. This is why TSLA is must own stock for this decade and not expensive. FAANG stocks led us higher from 2010-2020. New breed of companies like Tesla will lead us from 2020 to 2030. You don't want to miss the next gorilla.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

CNBC interview with Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock. This is eyeopening interview and shows you how the big institutional investors are now thinking about climate change and world sustainability. When someone who manages $7 trillion dollars of investment money talks about how they want to invest in clean energy companies going forward, you need to pay close attention to what they're saying. You can tell from the interview Larry Fink is not just bullshitting and talking for television PR points. He really believes in this and is going to act accordingly. When you're investing, you need to see where the big whales are going and try to get in front of them or ride along with them. We just started 2020. At the end of this decade, people will look back and say this is when the big change occurred. We're at the tipping point. This is why TSLA is must own stock for this decade and not expensive. FAANG stocks led us higher from 2010-2020. New breed of companies like Tesla will lead us from 2020 to 2030. You don't want to miss the next gorilla.

Do you really think other established car companies won't have a competing product? So what - they are all just going to fall over and die in the next 5 years?

 

[ponyo]

Do you really think other established car companies won't have a competing product? So what - they are all just going to fall over and die in the next 5 years?

Based on what I've seen so far, competition is years behind. And because the talent and the pace of innovation at Tesla is so fast and so great, the technology gap between Tesla and the legecy automakers is actually increasing rather than decreasing. It's my opinion most of the legacy automakers will die. They'll start merging as they're dying to try to combine their remaining strength to take on Tesla but I'm afraid even that won't be enough. So yes, I expect most of them will die. Not in 5 years but within 10-20 years. Countries will probably try to bail them out but they will be wasting their money in doing so.

But Tesla alone can't supply the world's EV car market. There will be new players. I suspect many of them will be from China. They will be like the Android of the car market. But Tesla is going to make the majority of the money because Tesla will own the autonomous vehicle market. They will be the first and they will own 90% of that trillion+ dollar market. Not to mention, they'll probably own 30%+ of the trillion+ dollar global energy market with their solar and battery.

 

[ponyo]

Made some option plays this morning.

1. Sold one TSLA Jan 17 $520 naked put for $7.60.
2. Sold one TSLA Feb 21 $620 covered calls for $18.50.
3. Bought two TSLA Feb 21 $800 calls for $2.35 each.
4. Bought one TSLA Feb 21 $400 put for $6.

If #1 happens, I'm fine with buying the stock and owning the stock at $512.40. If not, I'll pocket free $760 this Friday.
#2 was to finance #3 and #4. #3 is lotto ticket in case short squeeze happens after Tesla Q4 earnings. #4 is protection insurance in case the market acts stupid and sells Tesla hard after Q4 earnings. My guess is all four option plays will expire worthless, and I'll collect free $1,344. I'm waiting to sell couple more covered calls but I'm waiting for TSLA price to move even higher.

 

[ponyo]

This is incredible. TSLA shorts are not giving up. Ihor with S3 Partners is reporting TSLA has the biggest dollar amount short interest of any stock. It passed Apple yesterday. But remember Apple is worth close to $1.4 trillion so $14 billion short is nothing. Meanwhile Tesla is only worth like $94 billion and yet has short interest of $14.46 billion. That's still whole lot of shares short. It just means TSLA stock price is going higher. Lot higher. But Ihor numbers are often wrong so you do have to take his reporting with grain of salt.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1217465671023546370

 

[FelixDeCat]

I remember the following things over the last 20 years that have changed that I did not like, but I have been forced to adapt to:

* The change from 16:10 aspect ratio as the norm to being forced to adapt to 16:9 on all devices, even work monitors. Because everyone wants to watch widescreen movies 24x7 on all devices. Who works anymore?

* The insistence that desktop computers are obsolete and everyone only wants a tablet or phone to get through life - first the devices then they made most websites tablet friendly (for finger use) vs desktop friendly (mouse use).

* Automakers phasing out cars because they sell SUVs at higher profits and in greater numbers. I bought a new car last year, not an SUV, and because cars are harder to sell I got mine well equipped for cheap!

* Making bigger and bigger cell phones. I had my first smart phone in 2005, the HP iPaq using Windows Mobile. If it does not fit in my pocket, I dont want it. And I dont want to pay $1,000 - $2,000 for it either! Only $250 and it has to fit in my pocket. The end.

Now the argument is for cars that run on rechargeable batteries. Whats the practical need? My car has an efficient gas engine that gets 28-40MPG. I might consider a hybrid engine for the same power and price, in about 10-15 years. But 100% rechargeable? I sometimes forgot to charge my phone. What happens if I forget to charge my car?

 

[ponyo]

I remember the following things over the last 20 years that have changed that I did not like, but I have been forced to adapt to:

* The change from 16:10 aspect ratio as the norm to being forced to adapt to 16:9 on all devices, even work monitors. Because everyone wants to watch widescreen movies 24x7 on all devices. Who works anymore?

* The insistence that desktop computers are obsolete and everyone only wants a tablet or phone to get through life - first the devices then they made most websites tablet friendly (for finger use) vs desktop friendly (mouse use).

* Automakers phasing out cars because they sell SUVs at higher profits and in greater numbers. I bought a new car last year, not an SUV, and because cars are harder to sell I got mine well equipped for cheap!

* Making bigger and bigger cell phones. I had my first smart phone in 2005, the HP iPaq using Windows Mobile. If it does not fit in my pocket, I dont want it. And I dont want to pay $1,000 - $2,000 for it either! Only $250 and it has to fit in my pocket. The end.

Now the argument is for cars that run on rechargeable batteries. Whats the practical need? My car has an efficient gas engine that gets 28-40MPG. I might consider a hybrid engine for the same power and price, in about 10-15 years. But 100% rechargeable? I sometimes forgot to charge my phone. What happens if I forget to charge my car?

Why EV over ICE car? Because once you drive EV, especially Tesla, regular cars will feel stupid. That's why EV will take over. Because EVs are so much better and so superior to ICE cars. And once battery prices drop some more in couple of years, EV will be cheaper to build than ICE cars. It's like when the iPhone first came out. The first couple gen iPhones were good but the iPhone didn't become great until the iPhone 4S. We're in the beginning innings of the EV revolution. Future EVs are going to be even more amazing. And the computer and software in these cars are going to be so much better than today. And of course, the holy grail is autonomous driving. And I'm in the camp Tesla will solve it first which will change everything.

Here's Joe Rogan talking about his experience with EV and how now he feels gas cars are stupid and don't work as good. He's not alone in his thinking. Once people drive EV for the first time, it's eye opening experience and their expectation on what a car should be is forever altered and changed. That is the power of Tesla and EV. And that's why as Tesla sells more and more cars, it's just going to snowball as friends, colleagues, and even strangers are introduced to Tesla and EV. One test drive and it's all over. So if you like your current car and don't want to hate your car, do yourself a favor and do not test drive a Tesla. Because once you do, you'll want a Tesla. It's that simple.

I have my Tesla on order. Cybertruck Tri-Motor. All paid for in full and free, thanks to Tesla shorts. It's going to replace my Toyota Tundra truck. I can't wait.

 

[KB]

Now the argument is for cars that run on rechargeable batteries. Whats the practical need? My car has an efficient gas engine that gets 28-40MPG. I might consider a hybrid engine for the same power and price, in about 10-15 years. But 100% rechargeable? I sometimes forgot to charge my phone. What happens if I forget to charge my car?

I would like to get an EV for the sole reason of not having to ever do an oil change again. I don't think I would buy a Tesla though. Maybe the Ford Mustang EV.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I would like to get an EV for the sole reason of not having to ever do an oil change again. I don't think I would buy a Tesla though. Maybe the Ford Mustang EV.

Dude with synthetic these days you really don't have to change your oil often in the slightest. If you do average driving I would say about once a year is completely acceptable.

Definitely not an "every 3000 miles" or "every 3 months" thing anymore.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Dude with synthetic these days you really don't have to change your oil often in the slightest. If you do average driving I would say about once a year is completely acceptable.

Definitely not an "every 3000 miles" or "every 3 months" thing anymore.

My car is 7500 on just plain conventional with regular use per the owners manual. I do about 14,000 per year so about twice a year. And yes, I hated the 3x3 oil changes.

There are some very good videos on Youtube showing how awful oil from the 1950s was. Cars were literally beating themselves to death and dying prematurely from poor lubrication. My dad told me that cars rarely made it past 100,000 miles before the engine went belly up.....but then you could buy a car for $2500 or less. That kind of oil was made for 3x3.

 

[ponyo]

Tesla price target raised to $350 from $250 at Morgan Stanley but downgraded to sell by Adam Jonas. I have to give Jonas credit. He timed his downgrade perfectly to have maximum impact with leap option expiration tomorrow. I wasn't expecting it. This is the same asshole who tried to break Tesla at $180 in June last year with his $10 bear case scenario. And he also tried to manipulate the price right on Christmas Eve on thin holiday trading week with another BS research he released. I don't think Jonas is a bad guy but merely tool used by Morgan Stanley to manipulate TSLA share price for them and their clients. In the long run, it's just going to be another bear trap but I have to respect his short term pull even though he's losing more credibility and power as time passes.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Why EV over ICE car? Because once you drive EV, especially Tesla, regular cars will feel stupid. That's why EV will take over. Because EVs are so much better and so superior to ICE cars. And once battery prices drop some more in couple of years, EV will be cheaper to build than ICE cars. It's like when the iPhone first came out. The first couple gen iPhones were good but the iPhone didn't become great until the iPhone 4S. We're in the beginning innings of the EV revolution. Future EVs are going to be even more amazing. And the computer and software in these cars are going to be so much better than today. And of course, the holy grail is autonomous driving. And I'm in the camp Tesla will solve it first which will change everything.

I have my Tesla on order. Cybertruck Tri-Motor. All paid for in full and free, thanks to Tesla shorts. It's going to replace my Toyota Tundra truck. I can't wait.

So I get the fun factor, but lots of cars are fun. Maybe 10-15 years from now I might consider adding electricity as secondary power source......assuming the car industry doesnt force us all into them beforehand.

As it is, GM has announced they are bringing back the Hummer - in electric form!

 

[ponyo]

VW CEO says carmaker faces same fate as Nokia without urgent reforms

Herbert Diess gets it. That's why I always said VW will be one of the survivors. But Diess knows the road will be very tough and difficult. EV requires different set of skills than ICE cars. They need programmers and software engineers. And there are lot of old timers at VW that's trying to stop Diess so not everyone is on the same page as Diess at VW. This is why Tesla has such a huge advantage over legacy automakers. Everyone is on board with Elon and the mission at Tesla. They can keep pressing the pedal to floor with no one to stop them or get in the way. It's why the pace of innovation is faster at Tesla and the lead keeps increasing.

 

[FelixDeCat]

lol

 

[dasherHampton]

Bye bye, WDC.

I'm glad I was patient with it. I bought it when it was in the 40's. It almost got called away once; after that I decided to go longer and higher with the calls.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Bye bye, WDC.

I'm glad I was patient with it. I bought it when it was in the 40's. It almost got called away once; after that I decided to go longer and higher with the calls.

Patience is a difficult thing to master, so I dont bother. Im in it for the quick buck. Luckily it paid off for you.

Speaking of quick bucks... I mentioned before in this thread that I was looking at Smile Direct Club (SDC) at about $9.75. It has had a series of positive press releases regarding partnerships and distribution methods that will help revenue growth this year. The stock has been going up and down as result.

If you recall SDC did an IPO last year at around $21 that was largely seen as a flop because it seemed overvalued and maybe not everything was mentioned in the IPO. It fell to the $8 range for several months before hitting $9.75 when I noticed it. It quickly jumped to $11+ on more positive news but then was hit with selling and shorting back to $9.50. A few days later it was near $15!

The stock currently has a 40% short ratio. I currently have a few $13 puts on the stock as I think it has a few gains to consolidate in the near term. In the longer term, if it can keep the positive momentum, I think this one might see $20+ again.

This assumes of course the shorts dont turn out to be right. Here is a good article on why SDC has things to worry about as well as how profitable it could be in the future:

Down 60% From Its IPO, Is SmileDirectClub a Buy? | The Motley Fool

SmileDirectClub has big potential, but also huge risks.

www.fool.com

They are considered a "disruptor" in orthodontics industry:

SmileDirect's exciting business

No doubt, on the surface, SmileDirect has exciting prospects. The company has developed a direct-to-consumer approach to tooth realignment. Customers can either stop into one of over 300 SmileShops to get a 3D scan, or use an at-home impression kit and mail it into SmileDirect.

After the customer mails in the results, a licensed orthodontist in SmileDirect's doctor network approves a plan, then sends clear aligners directly to the customer's home. The whole offering, which takes place without the need for X-rays or regular visits to an orthodontist, costs about $1,895, compared to traditional solutions that go for $5,000 to $8,000.

However they face regulatory scrutiny in places like California, which has raided two of their offices. Also being a disruptor is not without its legal consequences and the established orthodontist industry's efforts to run them out of town by having new laws passed to level the playing field. So there are risks.

Long term it might be a buy, but for now Im betting on a short term drop to about $11-$12.

 

[dasherHampton]

Trust me - I'm in it for a quick buck as well. I used to day trade full time.

I just can't do it anymore. Every time I sit down at open, notebook in hand, telling myself "this is going to be a good day" I lose focus within an hour. I'm sick of it.

Day trading is a young man's game.