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Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

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ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
18,620
2,074
126
How is oil down 5% other than maybe it had a 5% over-analyzed spike because everyone thought a war would break out and magically production would slow in Iran?

I don't think oil was "down" 5% - I think it adjusted back to what it was prior to the iran missle shooting overnight?
yep. same thing with gold.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
26,335
477
126
Hi! I am back..any hot stock tips?
I was at the mall the other day and some crazy old guy came up to me talking about a company run by a pot smoker who makes cars that run on rechargeable batteries. He also said one share of that company will cost you $500 he thought they would go higher. I forgot the name of the company though.

I laughed and walked away.
 
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ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
18,620
2,074
126
“Tesla is and remains one of our biggest and our best short positions.”

-Jim Chanos, 11/22/19, before the stock rallied almost 50% over the next 6 weeks.


Knowing assholes like Jim Chanos is losing money on Tesla trade makes me happy.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
26,335
477
126
Im willing to bet they already covered. If not they probably had a bunch of cheap out of the money call options that are now worth enough to offset big losses in their short stock position (hedged short position).

Besides, the real money was made in shorting pot stocks. While I never did short any pot stock, I do remember looking at put options for Tilray around November 2018. At the time the stock was $110 and one put option, good for 100 shares short at $80 by June 2019, would have cost $2000 per contract or $20 each. Obviously this made no sense since it was already 30 dollars below the current stock price (out of the money), and you culdnt short the shares either since they were hard to borrow. Way too risky.

As luck would have it, TLRY fell from $110 in November 2018 to $35 by June 2019, so the put contract would have been worth $4500 or $45 each. Today, Tilray trades for $15 and change and there are plenty of people who think Tilray will go to ZERO. So much for the pot revolution!
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
26,335
477
126
I think there is more money to be made in long positions over time in growing companies. Just buy and hold a basket of investable stocks.

If I buy put options (short stocks) its usually on an index like the QQQs or on gold like NUGT. I rarely buy puts/calls on individual companies because they are not as liquid and usually overpriced.

In fact, today I tried to buy some puts on NUGT. The weekly $34 NUGT put option was trading at .87 cents each or $87 per contract around 9:30am CST. I tried to put the order in to buy 10 contracts for $870 but it would not fill as the market makers kept jacking up the price when I did. I normally try to scalp a quick dime or two and sell the same day. Here is the order:

2.JPG

I gave up and went to something else when NUGT actually started going UP!

Then Trump gave his "peace with Iran" speech today and gold PLUMMETED! Those same put contracts I tried to buy for $870 today was now worth almost $3,000 the same day.

Capture.JPG

WARNING - trading options is VERY RISKY. It is very easy to lose money on them since they usually price them so you *wont* make money.
 
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Nov 8, 2012
18,524
3,893
136
Im willing to bet they already covered. If not they probably had a bunch of cheap out of the money call options that are now worth enough to offset big losses in their short stock position (hedged short position).

Besides, the real money was made in shorting pot stocks. While I never did short any pot stock, I do remember looking at put options for Tilray around November 2018. At the time the stock was $110 and one put option, good for 100 shares short at $80 by June 2019, would have cost $2000 per contract or $20 each. Obviously this made no sense since it was already 30 dollars below the current stock price (out of the money), and you culdnt short the shares either since they were hard to borrow. Way too risky.

As luck would have it, TLRY fell from $110 in November 2018 to $35 by June 2019, so the put contract would have been worth $4500 or $45 each. Today, Tilray trades for $15 and change and there are plenty of people who think Tilray will go to ZERO. So much for the pot revolution!
Marijuana stocks really have had a shit year in 2019 ending down substantially. I'm curious to hear everyone's opinions... is it just the industry maturing and it will be back up in 2020?
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
18,620
2,074
126
Marijuana stocks really have had a shit year in 2019 ending down substantially. I'm curious to hear everyone's opinions... is it just the industry maturing and it will be back up in 2020?
I have no idea and no opinion on how marijuana stocks will perform. But I'm thinking about buying Bitcoin for the first time. I might buy 1 or 2 Bitcoins and just hold it as a small hedge for my portfolio. That's something I wouldn't have dreamed of doing in the past but the idea now appeals to me.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
26,335
477
126
Marijuana stocks really have had a shit year in 2019 ending down substantially. I'm curious to hear everyone's opinions... is it just the industry maturing and it will be back up in 2020?
On balance the biggest problem for the sector seemed to be overtaxation and regulation that made the business not as competitive with the black market. They are now considered value plays vs growth. For the CBD producers there was much more hype and promise than benefits delivered. And now you have negative news stories such as vapers who were injured from vaping CBD and/or THC infused products that also had Vitiman E.

Ironically legal producers are calling for more drug enforcement of non compliant (illegal) grows here and abroad (Mexico) and for a relaxation of federal banking rules that will allow them to access to safer banking methods versus the higher costs of all cash banking. There are even illegal storefront operations selling untaxed black market weed.

Remember when the idea making legal and taxing controlled substances was supposed to be a panacea to the drug problem? Welp, that did not happen. In fact the only way to make legal weed work is more drug law enforcement against the same old black market! LOL!

So until they can find a way for Marijuana companies to have their cake and it too, the industry will be under pressure. The best part of all? They may wind up never being more profitable than the most successful tobacco company on Earth - Phillip Morris.
 
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dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,281
408
96
WARNING - trading options is VERY RISKY. It is very easy to lose money on them since they usually price them so you *wont* make money.
It certainly seems like it's gotten more convoluted. I don't know this for a fact but I think robo traders now incorporate options with complex algorithms that make it more difficult.

Generally I's say a person should have a pretty good feel for a stock before wading into options.

And Buffet's rule applies more than ever - don't trade options on a stock you're not comfortable holding.

But it can still work. I've made about $2500 so far selling options on your SRNE tip. I currently hold 40 March 20 5 calls. If SRNE somehow makes it up there by then I'll clear a nice overall profit. If not I'll keep selling them.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
26,335
477
126
Looks like I might lose my WDC. I have 1/17 67.50 calls.
You're telling me bro. Im now underwater on ADXS. Considering it zoomed up from 20 cents to a $1.50, I guess I should have seen it coming. Current price is $1.15. Hopefully the consolidation ends soon.

The ACHV I dumped at .52 has now touched .60.

On a positive note, I flipped SAVA from $7.25 to $8.35 yesterday.....but it kept going up to $9. Its now at $8 today.

Edit: Looks like my instincts were right on Smile Direct Club. It zoomed up quickly but is now falling back down.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
105,012
19,701
136
Marijuana stocks really have had a shit year in 2019 ending down substantially. I'm curious to hear everyone's opinions... is it just the industry maturing and it will be back up in 2020?
hyper-saturation is all it is. Very few municipalities haven even worked out the regulations for this stuff, so many of the folks involved in the business still don't know what is legal or not. Hell, DC is already ~4? years into it, and legally purchasing it is still kinda sketchy--though very, very easy.

You end up with many, many dozens of dummies suddenly trying to turn their life-long hobby into a business, which is usually cash only, without even knowing if they are legal or not. You add that to the pressure of the established, monied players that can just swallow up these upstarts in terms of capacity, money, teams of lawyers, etc. ...all of this stuff should be easily predictable, and should never have been a surprise to anyone. Just who is going to come out of the dust is anyone's guess, of course, but there will be winners in the end
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
26,335
477
126
Sorrento up 45% to $5 on offer to buy for $7.

Sweet.

Edit: Bought 900 @ 4.8 and shorted nine Jan $5s for .47
 
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ShookKnight

Senior member
Dec 12, 2019
646
657
96
Tesla, Tesla, Tesla!

I had people tell me to dump it in 2013 when it dropped from $190 to $120-ish. How I was a fucking idiot for even buying and holding onto it. How Tesla was a horrible idea. How it will die and and and and and.

Bought in 2012 at $25.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
18,620
2,074
126
TSLA above $500. :D My Feb 21 $500 Tesla calls are now ITM and printing money. I bought 9 last Monday morning. Sold 3 this morning to take out my initial investment. The remaining 6 calls are now 100% free. I still have free Jan 17 $350 calls that's expiring this Friday that I bought after the Cybertruck dip. I think I'm going to exercise those calls and hold the shares. And of course I'm going to keep my free Jan 15 2021 leap calls. The $300 and $420 2021 calls basically move like shares at this point. I'll probably keep it and exercise those January next year.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
26,335
477
126
Woohoo, the rechargeable battery car company goes over $500 per share! That crazy old guy at the mall was right - why didnt I listen? ;)
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
26,335
477
126
In other News, Seek Alpha publishes very negative article regarding Sorrento:


Luckily I shorted those calls on Friday. I bought them back at a discount and was forced to sell near the high of the day. Im not sure where it goes next, so I erred on the side of caution and took a small loss.

Im back to buying puts on NUGT again. :)

I think Gold ran up too far and too fast, may as well profit from the downdraft. Long term however, I am sticking to my $2,000 an ounce call.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
18,620
2,074
126
Woohoo, the rechargeable battery car company goes over $500 per share! That crazy old guy at the mall was right - why didnt I listen? ;)
You should've. Always listen to the crazy ones. They're going to build monuments for Elon Musk. He's going completely change history and push humanity forward for the better.

 

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