Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

When I said quick buck - that was relative thing. Ill hold something as long as I think its valuable (going in the direction I want it to - up or down). Some things are only valuable the same day or same week.

Most professional trading opinion revolves around the approach. If it is held as a trade then you would limit to your risk to the amount you can stand to lose. If it is held as an investment then you would ease into the position (buy or short little by little) over time and see if it pays off.

On balance I feel more comfortable with short term trading.

I also only trade cash, no margin. I haven't used margin since 2016. Without margin you cant do spreads (I do miss that), but you also don't pay margin interest (I don't miss that). Also clearing times for stocks are a day or two with cash and overnight with options. So really, cash only is not a bad deal.

 

[dasherHampton]

Speaking of trading - WDC getting called away opened up a large chunk of cash I need to reinvest. You were right (at least so far) about SRNE. Any other things you're looking at?

I've become interested in dividend ETFs. I might begin researching them this week. Some of them seem to do pretty well.

 

[dasherHampton]

KBWD paid out 8.44% last year. It sits at $22.49 right now.

Looks like its been around for about ten years. Zacks gives it a hold.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I mentioned my ideas on SDC - near term down to consolidate to $10-$12, longer term maybe $20. Current price $12.90. Theyve delivered lots of positive press releases on future business opportunities over the last two weeks. But now they have to deliver this year on those promises.

If they keep pumping the stock up with press releases - look out! And speaking of looking out, the lock up expiration for insiders to sell will be in March which will put pressure on the stock price. And with a 40% short ratio, its bound to be volatile!

The good - they are growing. The bad - they are losing money doing it, and facing regulatory headwinds with industry pushback.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Im also holding about some shares of SAVA from $7.15. I sold half my position at $9. Current price $8. I think it might see $10 this year, but thats really just a guess. The insider buying is what made it take off. What do they know that market does not???

 

[FelixDeCat]

The musical chairs will probably stop and take a breather so Im not touching it for now.

 

[ponyo]

Kind of busy morning for me. Sold 100 shares of TSLA this morning at $545. Those were the 100 shares I was assigned after the close on Friday from my $520 put I bought earlier in the week. $2,500 + $760 premium I collected = $3,260. Not bad for couple days of work. Also sold 3 of the Feb 21 $500 TSLA calls for $69 this morning. I bought those for around $13 like little over week ago. Pocketed $16,000 profit on those calls. Still holding 5 more Feb 21 $500 calls. Also sold two more Feb 21 $620 TSLA call options for $18 each. Collected $3,600 in premium. If they want to buy 200 shares of my TSLA at $620 by Feb 21, they can have it. I have 1,000 more shares I can sell them. I also exercised TSLA $350 call on Friday and purchased 100 shares of TSLA. I paid $36,500 for those 100 shares including the initial call premium I paid. I'm keeping these 100 shares until this time next year so I can get long term tax rate on it.

 

[ponyo]

Sold 2 TSLA $570 Jan 24 weekly calls for $5.50 each and collected $1,100 in premium. If they want to buy 200 of my TSLA shares for $570 this Friday, they can have it. I think I'm going to take the $1,100 I just got for the covered calls and buy myself the new Macbook Air that's on sale at Costco. I think it's time to retire this Chromebook I'm using.

 

[dr150]

Sold 2 TSLA $570 Jan 24 weekly calls for $5.50 each and collected $1,100 in premium. If they want to buy 200 of my TSLA shares for $570 this Friday, they can have it. I think I'm going to take the $1,100 I just got for the covered calls and buy myself the new Macbook Air that's on sale at Costco. I think it's time to retire this Chromebook I'm using.

Take that $1.1k and donate it to a charity, like Care.com.

Keep the Chromebook until the wheels fall off.

 

[ponyo]

Take that $1.1k and donate it to a charity, like Care.com.

Keep the Chromebook until the wheels fall off.

Why? What's wrong with the Macbook Air? I bought my wife one last year, and she likes it. I wouldn't mind having one so I can run ThinkorSwim app. I can't run that on my Chromebook and it's kind of annoying to have to carry around my iPad to run the ToS app.

 

[ponyo]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-einhorn-hates-netflix-more-ever-and-still-long-gold

David Einhorn Greenlight Capital Investment letter is out today. I glanced at the letter and noticed he no longer lists Tesla as a short position. In fact, there's no mention of Tesla anywhere on that letter. You would think after all the stink he made about how TSLA was fraud, overvalued, and bunch of BS crap he said, he would least man up and say if he covered TSLA for a loss or if he was right but just timed it wrong, etc. But nope. Not a word on TSLA. I'm again disappointed in David Einhorn. I thought he was a fool for shorting TSLA and really made me question his intelligence and ability to forecast and value stocks. Now I question his integrity. Man without honor is nothing. It's pretty obvious he has no integrity. If I had any money invested with him and haven't pulled out yet, his omission of any mention of TSLA from that letter would prompt me to pull all the money from him. He's a coward and fool and doesn't deserve to run professional money.

 

[ponyo]

TSLA traded as $100 billion company for the first time in the afterhours trading tonight. Important milestone but insignificant in the big picture. TSLA is on its way to being $1,000 billion or $1 trillion company in the next 10 years. That should equal to share price of around $5,555. Honestly, I think TSLA has a chance to hit $10,000 share but I want to keep my expectations low. My financial model showed TSLA hitting $2,500-$3,000 around 2025.

 

[ponyo]

Sold another Feb 21 TSLA $500 call for $92. Now down to four Feb 21 calls. I'm going to keep selling every couple points until I sell it all. Feb 21 calls were earnings run trade and my plan was to sell it before TSLA earning on Jan 29th. The Jan 24 $570 and Feb 21 $620 covered calls I sold yesterday are not looking too good at the moment but that's fine. I chose those strike prices because I thought I would be happy to sell some TSLA shares at those prices. I still have 1,100 TSLA shares I'm sitting on in this trading account plus couple Jan 15, 2021 leap calls that's deep in the money. My plan was to deleverage some this week going into TSLA earnings next week. It's been a great run and if there is any profit taking after the earnings, I'm going to buy aggressively again. I think the institutional investors are slowly waking up to the fact TSLA is going to be a juggernaut going forward but there are still plenty of doubters. So TSLA has plenty of room to run at only $100 billion valuation. It's a joke really that people think TSLA is overvalued at $100 billion. They have no clue even after seeing Amazon run from $200 to $2,000 at similar valuation and EPS. How can people make the same mistake twice when there's template to go by?

EDIT: Sold two more Feb 21 TSLA $500 call for $99 each. So now down to two Feb 21 $500 calls. Also sold two of the Feb 7 $750 covered calls for $7.35 each. Premium are getting insane on these calls. TSLA price will have to go up $170 from current price in 2 weeks to hit the $750 price. And people are happy and willing to pay $7.35 for that chance. If there is massive short squeeze after the earnings, sure. But banking on short squeeze outcome at that high of a premium seems kind of crazy. But then again I thought the 4 covered calls I sold yesterday were relatively safe. So who knows.

 

[FelixDeCat]

TSLA just keeps going up. Trump even compared Elon to Edison recently. I guess that means he supports Tesla.

In other news I bought a put on NFLX. Time to short that puppy.

 

[ponyo]

More rear view analysis and investing from UBS this morning. These are the clowns who commissioned Sandy Munro to take apart and do cost analysis on the Tesla Model 3. When Munro came back and told UBS how advanced Tesla Model 3 was and how it was going to print money for Tesla with possible 30% margin, UBS sued Munro to keep silent and locked up the report. And now the clowns at UBS who have been completely wrong on TSLA since 2013 raised their price target from $160 to $410 while maintaining the "Sell" rating. LOL. Shortsellers have lost billions of dollars listening to clowns like UBS. And UBS still have no shame. I'm mean how do you raise price target from $160 to $410 while maintaining Sell rating with a straight face? Why should anyone listen to these clowns when the only track record they have is being completely wrong? Remember, in investing as in life, you have to skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. Or else you're always going to be left behind like the clowns at UBS.

 

[ponyo]

haha.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...lph-nader-2020-01-23?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Better sell everything now! The bull market is over!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1220112504006811654

 

[ponyo]

TSLA just keeps going up. Trump even compared Elon to Edison recently. I guess that means he supports Tesla.

In other news I bought a put on NFLX. Time to short that puppy.

Did you buy the weekly put on NFLX? NFLX exploded higher yesterday. Good thing you didn't short NFLX stock and only bought put to cap your loss. Don't follow David Einhorn unless you want to go down with him.

 

[ponyo]

Bought something other than TSLA for a change today. Bought 1,200 shares of Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) for $17.73 each. It's totally a gamble but I figured it was worth putting around $20k into it to see if it can moon. I wish SpaceX was public so I could invest in it but Elon will never bring SpaceX public after the crap he had to put up with TSLA from the Wall Street parasites. SPCE is the only public pure space play right now. SPCE is my speculative play. It seems to move in sync with TSLA.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Did you buy the weekly put on NFLX? NFLX exploded higher yesterday. Good thing you didn't short NFLX stock and only bought put to cap your loss. Don't follow David Einhorn unless you want to go down with him.

I only bought one put just as a gamble. I heard a convincing argument made against the stock on CNBC. I paid $315 for it. Before the day was over, NFLX was getting hammered to the downside and now it was worth $460 - a tidy amount.

I should have booked my $145 profit like my gut told me to, but instead I got a tad greedy and kept it overnight.

Unfortunately UBS upgraded Netflix the following morning, and by lunch time Comcast said their streaming service lost subscribers (which was interpreted as favorable for Netflix), so the stock ended UP 7% in one day.

Thankfully I read the tea leaves and dumped my put for $150, about half what I paid for it.

I still think NFLX goes sub $300, but I have no money on it.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Bought something other than TSLA for a change today. Bought 1,200 shares of Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) for $17.73 each. It's totally a gamble but I figured it was worth putting around $20k into it to see if it can moon. I wish SpaceX was public so I could invest in it but Elon will never bring SpaceX public after the crap he had to put up with TSLA from the Wall Street parasites. SPCE is the only public pure space play right now. SPCE is my speculative play. It seems to move in sync with TSLA.

I saw that the other day. I dont know much about it though. (earnings, business model, revs, etc)

 

[ponyo]

I only bought one put just as a gamble. I heard a convincing argument made against the stock on CNBC. I paid $315 for it. Before the day was over, NFLX was getting hammered to the downside and now it was worth $460 - a tidy amount.

I should have booked my $145 profit like my gut told me to, but instead I got a tad greedy and kept it overnight.

Unfortunately UBS upgraded Netflix the following morning, and by lunch time Comcast said their streaming service lost subscribers (which was interpreted as favorable for Netflix), so the stock ended UP 7% in one day.

Thankfully I read the tea leaves and dumped my put for $150, about half what I paid for it.

I still think NFLX goes sub $300, but I have no money on it.

I missed the NFLX train so I just stay away. I was too stupid to hop on then. That means I'm too stupid to hop on now. Same with AMZN.

I saw that the other day. I dont know much about it though. (earnings, business model, revs, etc)

I don't know much about SPCE other than Chamath Palihapitiya invested in it. Virgin Galactic did reverse merger with Social Capital Hedosophia which was Chamath's company to create Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE). So I'm really betting on Chamath Palihapitiya and his ability to invest and identify early winners. I saw the SPCE IPO headline last October and thought about buying it then around at $10 because of my respect for Chamath. But I was busy with TSLA so I passed.

SPCE is story stock. It's the only public pure play on space industry which is hot area of interest right now from investors and general public. I feel like if you buy this stock today, you're basically investing in a startup as venture capitalist and have to assume you'll lose everything. But as with many story stocks, the sky is the limit right now because it doesn't trade on any fundamentals or profits because there aren't any and might not be for very long time if ever. But because of that, there isn't any metric you can compare or apply so you're only limited by your imagination as far as valuation. I guess you could sort of compare SPCE to SpaceX, but SpaceX is private. SpaceX is valued private around $40 billion but should be valued much higher IMO because of the upcoming Starlink and its total domination of the whole commercial space industry. SpaceX would be valued at over $100 billion right now IMO if it were a public company.

SPCE is currently valued around $3.4 billion and has pretty low float with sizable short interest. So I think there's potential there for SPCE to go up in price. SPCE could triple in value from here and hit $52 and yet still only be valued at around $10 billion. So if enough hype and momentum builds for SPCE, I could potentially see SPCE hitting $100 or even $200 rather quickly. At $100, it's $20 billion; at $200, it's $40 billion. Sort of like how story stocks like Tilray and Beyond Meat attracted speculators and momentum traders and mooned to crazy heights completely destroying shorts in the process before finally crashing back down to reality. Will this happen? I have no idea. Could this happen? Definitely. Anything is possible with story stocks as we often saw during the dotcom bubble. There were such demand and appetite for internet stocks back then yet there were only so few public companies in the beginning. So anything and everything Internet related were bid up huge. Maybe we'll see the same thing with Space stocks, who knows. I just view it as speculative gamble just like buying Bitcoin. I think it's worth throwing some play money at it and see what happens. SPCE dropped further today so I bought another 200 shares at $16.42 so I now have 1,400 shares at an average price of around $17.54. I might pickup another 600 shares to make it even 2,000 shares if it drops more but I think that's going to be my position limit for this moonshot gamble.

Trump tweeted this today. Imagine if SPCE got some type of US military contract. Stock would explode.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1220821545746141187

 

[ponyo]

I guess I'm a dreamer. I invested in dreams of Elon Musk and Richard Branson.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Theres a lot of possibilities The company has a $3B valuation on $10M in revenue, which means its valued at 300X current revenue. Wow! (assuming of course Yahoo Finance figures are correct)

The next earnings release date for SPCE is 2/20/20. If they can continue to show revenue growth, it might go higher. The long term "consumerization" of space will be interesting.

 

[ponyo]

Theres a lot of possibilities The company has a $3B valuation on $10M in revenue, which means its valued at 300X current revenue. Wow! (assuming of course Yahoo Finance figures are correct)

The next earnings release date for SPCE is 2/20/20. If they can continue to show revenue growth, it might go higher. The long term "consumerization" of space will be interesting.

Company has no debt and pretty large cash cushion from the reverse merger with Social Capital Hedosophia. This is actually pretty informative article on Virgin Galactic.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/01/24/virgin-galactic-does-this-moonshot-stock-have-a-pl.aspx

There's no need to worry about running out of cash in the next year or two. But I bet if the stock price rises too much too quickly, the company will raise money by selling more stock. So I'm aware of the dilution risk. Branson and Chamath are smart dudes and won't pass up a chance to increase cash position if the opportunity comes. At this point, I don't even worry about the next earnings date. That's just noise. There won't be any earnings to speak of. This stock will rise on hype, news, and dreams, not on earnings. At least for the next year or two. The biggest risk to this company is if one of their planes crashes or blows up killing people. Something like that will probably cut the stock price in half or more in an instant. So the risk is extremely large. Space is hard and even the best like SpaceX often have failures even though they've been kicking ass lately. But I think there's also lot of upside. I wouldn't put a lot into this company but putting small percent into this company might pay off in the future. The business will evolve as new opportunities emerge. And I think Branson is crazy enough and Chamath smart enough to find and take advantage of those opportunities.

 

[zinfamous]

Bought something other than TSLA for a change today. Bought 1,200 shares of Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) for $17.73 each. It's totally a gamble but I figured it was worth putting around $20k into it to see if it can moon. I wish SpaceX was public so I could invest in it but Elon will never bring SpaceX public after the crap he had to put up with TSLA from the Wall Street parasites. SPCE is the only public pure space play right now. SPCE is my speculative play. It seems to move in sync with TSLA.

That's not why SPaceX isn't public. It isn't public because that industry can't properly do its work and also deal with garbage shareholders demanding that they know better. No one ever would have gone to the moon, or done anything in space, really, if that work was public. This is actually why I'm not convinced that Virgin Galactic will be all that successful.