Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

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Tweak155

Lifer
Sep 23, 2003
11,288
196
106
Also in my day trading dabbles I picked on CCL while I'm still learning. Also swing traded F for a near 10% gain. Still only 10's of stocks at a time, but hey I'd rather win small for now in case I really do something where I shouldn't have.

I figure either way I gotta pay for the education ... most definitely with time, and right now it's smaller wins.
 

alcoholbob

Diamond Member
May 24, 2005
6,089
224
106
The PE ratio of the S&P500 is 10% higher than it was before the crash given the drop in profits. That's pretty crazy. Don't think we've ever seen anything like this in terms of 7 trillion+ of immediate stimulus that completely truncated a bear market.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,731
353
126
The PE ratio of the S&P500 is 10% higher than it was before the crash given the drop in profits. That's pretty crazy. Don't think we've ever seen anything like this in terms of 7 trillion+ of immediate stimulus that completely truncated a bear market.
Supposedly today's rally was based on "vaccine hopes" and "more stimulus". This is like our 5th or 6th major rally on "vaccine hopes" and "more stimulus".

As far as "vaccine hopes", even if we have one available this year (which in itself will be miracle) it will take some time manufacture and distribute.

As far as "more stimulus" - Since its an election year, one political party is trying to make another look bad if they dont approve the biggest round of debt driven "stimulus" yet, despite the multi-trillion dollar effort undertaken since March. It was made absurdly gigantic on purpose so as to be unpalatable to the other party.

"See, they dont care about you! Vote for us and we will take care of you!"

We have already borrowed and spent trillions and the Fed has vowed to effectively dilute the dollar by printing as much fairy dust money as it takes, no matter the consequences.
 
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IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
59,055
11,189
126
That's what happens when a recession hits when fiscal and monetary policy tools were already expended blowing up a bubble. It wasn't like we didn't know this one, two, three, five years ago. We didn't know it would be a pandemic that would tank the economy but we did know Congress/President and the Fed were pumping up the bond and stock markets straight through a boom. It made political sense to pay back their donors but it made no financial sense.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
100,462
14,485
136
Supposedly today's rally was based on "vaccine hopes" and "more stimulus". This is like our 5th or 6th major rally on "vaccine hopes" and "more stimulus".

As far as "vacine hopes", even if we have one available this year (which in itself will be miracle) it will take some time manufacture and distribute.

As far as "more stimulus" - Since its an election year, one political party is trying to make another look bad if they dont approve the biggest round of debt driven "stimulus" yet, despite the multi-trillion dollar effort undertaken since March. It was made absurdly gigantic on purpose so as to be unpalatable to the other party.

"See, they dont care about you! Vote for us and we will take care of you!"

We have already borrowed and spent trillions and the Fed has vowed to effectively dilute the dollar by printing as much fairy dust money as it takes, no matter the consequences.
lol, it's like you think the 6 trillion dollar debt-driven stimulus for billionaires back in 2017 is somehow irrelevant in all this. Does someone actually think that party cares about them? lolwtf.

Damn, but it would have been great to have all that money when an actual stimulus was needed, right?
 
Nov 8, 2012
15,375
2,538
126
Wondering how rent payments are going to be come the beginning of June.

35m+ newly unemployed folks - and this will continue to grow every week through the rent payment.

I'm predicting a snap back to reality come a week into the June when they start reporting.
 

alcoholbob

Diamond Member
May 24, 2005
6,089
224
106
Wondering how rent payments are going to be come the beginning of June.

35m+ newly unemployed folks - and this will continue to grow every week through the rent payment.

I'm predicting a snap back to reality come a week into the June when they start reporting.
A third of renters didn't pay in April. While the REIT (real estate insurance trust) index is down about 20% the break-down is interesting, residential REITs are actually down less than the index, which is somewhat curious, but I suspect this has to do with market cap bias because the residential REIT sector is overweighted by a few large players like EQR, MAA, and ESS.



Datacenter REITs are heavily being overbid, industrial REITs are probably the best sector to be in right now, major industrial REITS like STAG collected 98-99% of rent in April because they mostly own e-commerce warehouses (Amazon is their largest tenant). Other sectors are trading at a pretty big discount.



Here's the large cap vs small cap bias going on. Small apartment REITs like BRG and BRT are down about 40-50% while mega caps like MAA and EQR are basically doing as well as the index or even better.

Right now markets are pricing in liquidity risk, which is low for large caps, even if they are income impaired. They aren't quite at the point of pricing in solvency risk with large caps, so we will see what happens.
 
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Nov 8, 2012
15,375
2,538
126
A third of renters didn't pay in April. While the REIT (real estate insurance trust) index is down about 20% the break-down is interesting, residential REITs are actually down less than the index, which is somewhat curious, but I suspect this has to do with market cap bias because the residential REIT sector is overweighted by a few large players like EQR, MAA, and ESS.



Datacenter REITs are heavily being overbid, industrial REITs are probably the best sector to be in right now, major industrial REITS like STAG collected 98-99% of rent in April because they mostly own e-commerce warehouses (Amazon is their largest tenant). Other sectors are trading at a pretty big discount.



Here's the large cap vs small cap bias going on. Small apartment REITs like BRG and BRT are down about 40-50% while mega caps like MAA and EQR are basically doing as well as the index or even better.

Right now markets are pricing in liquidity risk, which is low for large caps, even if they are income impaired. They aren't quite at the point of pricing in solvency risk with large caps, so we will see what happens.

So I thought that at first as well - but apparently the numbers weren't that bad for May ... See below video (which should autostart @ 3:43. Apparently the typical due date (April 5) fell on a Sunday, which technically doesn't count?



Either way, June (is my bet) of when we will see the real numbers.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
100,462
14,485
136
A third of renters didn't pay in April. While the REIT (real estate insurance trust) index is down about 20% the break-down is interesting, residential REITs are actually down less than the index, which is somewhat curious, but I suspect this has to do with market cap bias because the residential REIT sector is overweighted by a few large players like EQR, MAA, and ESS.



Datacenter REITs are heavily being overbid, industrial REITs are probably the best sector to be in right now, major industrial REITS like STAG collected 98-99% of rent in April because they mostly own e-commerce warehouses (Amazon is their largest tenant). Other sectors are trading at a pretty big discount.



Here's the large cap vs small cap bias going on. Small apartment REITs like BRG and BRT are down about 40-50% while mega caps like MAA and EQR are basically doing as well as the index or even better.

Right now markets are pricing in liquidity risk, which is low for large caps, even if they are income impaired. They aren't quite at the point of pricing in solvency risk with large caps, so we will see what happens.
They only REIT I hold is a retirement/nursing home REIT. Forget the name off the top of my head. It sounds like...a terrible thing to be in right now, but "rent" isn't exactly an issue because (well, not for the same reason), because those things are set up to leach remaining retirement funds from the elderly, so you're basically locked-in years ago. However, the people living in these places are the hardest hit, tragically.

I had assumed (without logic) that this one was one of the better conglomerates, but I doubt it. I'm going to look more into the books to see if they are skeezy and show a significant lack of oversight and care, exposed by this pandemic. last I checked, it was down ~15% or so back in mid April.
 

alcoholbob

Diamond Member
May 24, 2005
6,089
224
106
They only REIT I hold is a retirement/nursing home REIT. Forget the name off the top of my head. It sounds like...a terrible thing to be in right now, but "rent" isn't exactly an issue because (well, not for the same reason), because those things are set up to leach remaining retirement funds from the elderly, so you're basically locked-in years ago. However, the people living in these places are the hardest hit, tragically.

I had assumed (without logic) that this one was one of the better conglomerates, but I doubt it. I'm going to look more into the books to see if they are skeezy and show a significant lack of oversight and care, exposed by this pandemic. last I checked, it was down ~15% or so back in mid April.
The main problem with senior housing is it's way overbuilt in this country so some of the smaller players may go belly up and I expect some consolidation from the covid crisis as people may be reticent to send their folks there in the social distancing era.
 
Nov 8, 2012
15,375
2,538
126
They only REIT I hold is a retirement/nursing home REIT. Forget the name off the top of my head. It sounds like...a terrible thing to be in right now, but "rent" isn't exactly an issue because (well, not for the same reason), because those things are set up to leach remaining retirement funds from the elderly, so you're basically locked-in years ago. However, the people living in these places are the hardest hit, tragically.

I had assumed (without logic) that this one was one of the better conglomerates, but I doubt it. I'm going to look more into the books to see if they are skeezy and show a significant lack of oversight and care, exposed by this pandemic. last I checked, it was down ~15% or so back in mid April.
I thought healthcare living might be a good investment as well... But just think about this
.. the majority of folks in a home are broke. I presume Medicare pays for the majority of costs?

I was talking with a friend who works in this type of area and he was telling me that essentially Medicare will only ever kick in for long term care if all other assets are depleted first.
 

manlymatt83

Diamond Member
Oct 14, 2005
9,935
11
81
The main problem with senior housing is it's way overbuilt in this country so some of the smaller players may go belly up and I expect some consolidation from the covid crisis as people may be reticent to send their folks there in the social distancing era.
only REIT I own is $O
 

alcoholbob

Diamond Member
May 24, 2005
6,089
224
106
That dude is so annoying. He reminds me of pharmabro.

I havent traded any reits in a while. I lost my ass on NYMT but made it back in spades with REML.. but for now I dont think reits are ownable, just tradable.
There's a big difference between equity REITs and mortgage REITs though. The Equity REITs own real estate and derive income from the rent, and have very low leverage. The mortgage REITs making money on the spread from long term mortgages and the cost of borrowing, minus fees, which is maybe 1.5% points on a good day. Then they lever up 8x and pay out the cash flow to the shareholder. That's a very unreliable cash stream, small rate changes and increases in default rates have a huge effect on NAV and the share price due to the nearly 10x leverage they utilize, plus they don't really have any physical assets like an equity REIT.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,731
353
126
There's a big difference between equity REITs and mortgage REITs though. The Equity REITs own real estate and derive income from the rent, and have very low leverage. The mortgage REITs making money on the spread from long term mortgages and the cost of borrowing, minus fees, which is maybe 1.5% points on a good day. Then they lever up 8x and pay out the cash flow to the shareholder. That's a very unreliable cash stream, small rate changes and increases in default rates have a huge effect on NAV and the share price.
Leverage was the the biggest problem with reits and why some of them fell up to 95% during the start of the lockdowns. Leverage is great when everyone is paying their bills on time, and the economy allows them pay the inflated rents and make mortgage payments to FNMA/FHLMC/GNMA on overpriced homes.

But high unemployment and a bad economy is bad for reits. Back in March the majority of them got margin calls and had to sell mortgages, commercial paper and other assets at deep discounts. The whole market went into chaos. The Fed stepped in to provide liquidity and stabilize the paper market.

For now the survivors are the pure mortgage reits that INVEST in and not SERVICE government backed mortgages. The reason being is that mortgage investors still get their required net interest payments regardless of whether the borrower makes payments or not (NLY,AGNC,etc). Servicers on the other hand are the ones holding the bag (TWO).

Also, you have some hybrid reits that hold mortgage paper, repos, commercial paper and invest directly in RE - on leverage. Those are the ones hit the hardest - NYMT, IVR, MITT, etc.

Sabra Healthcare reit was in a unique situation in that it invests hundreds of senior healthcare facilities, nursing homes, etc. The stock cratered with the other reits, but has held up very well. Apparently the long term demand for old folks homes will continue for the foreseeable future. The dividend was cut from .45 per quarter to .30 cents, but considering the dividend has been slashed or halted on many reits, to get .30 cents is not bad.
 

hawkeye_wx

Junior Member
Oct 14, 2011
17
0
66
NVDA bottomed at 182 in March. It is now 361. Dang. It has been pretty much straight up since March 23.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,731
353
126
Sorrento, back under $5. It usually pulls back after a while.

edit: In for a trade.
 
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dasherHampton

Golden Member
Jan 19, 2018
1,752
262
96
Sorrento, back under $5. It usually pulls back after a while.
It's probably closer to where to should be. There was definitely some pumping going on. If you look at the sell points they were $9 and $10 on the nose. Some collusion for sure. I just hope no inexperienced retail investors got taken in but that's probably a pipe dream.

I'm not going to worry about it. If it drops under $4 I'll just keep selling calls.

lol The good thing? I don't have to kick myself in the head for missing a trip to the stratosphere.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,731
353
126
Missed the big one today - a small 3d printer company out of Israel (NNDM) announced a breakthrough in the ability to print 3d circuit boards. I was looking at the stock at $1.50-1.60, already up 100% from .80 cents the day before. I looked at the chart and back in January it was $2.00. I thought there might be an outside chance of it hitting that, but decided to pass.

Went to go do some things and came back to look at my watch lists - damn thing hit $2 after all, so I bought some shares and dumped them for a quick profit. :)

edit...Damnit, still going! I want my shares back!!! :eek:

(be careful with this one, its a long way down once it consolidates)
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
100,462
14,485
136
lol Elon Musk says you should get redpilled...

yeah, good luck with that, Elon. If he wants to align with the anti-business, anti-humanity party, then he's going to be in for a rude awakening.

He really needs to put down the blunt and, seriously, resign from any freaking board for the sake of his companies and employees.

lol if he thinks that he can threaten CA. Hell, moving to TX would actually be great--imagine the greater influx of talented, educated Democrat-voting employees that would drag into the state that is already on track to being irrecoverable by the GOP? CA would be completely fine without Elon, and in TX, would only do things to improve the USA.
 

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