Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

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KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,054
123
106
Open air malls? Really? Of all things I think this pandemic has taught a whole new batch of people that they don't need to shop in store in order to find what they need...You can just buy it online.

Malls have been going downhill for a long... long...time... I think this recession will be the nail in the coffin for them.
To each his own. Open air malls (AKA stripmalls) often have grocery store anchors in them which are doing really well. They often contain restaurants which will be back open eventually, Americans love to eat out. They usually have a theater, which I was told all theaters would be bankrupt back when blockbuster came out, but that didn't happen. People love to go out, to socialize, to experience things. Only time will tell.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,731
353
126
I had a good day, got lucky with some puts/calls on QQQ. They were cheap because volatility (VIX) has been going back to normal. During the height of the selloff, an in the money put or call cost 3X or 4X what it normally cost.

I am glad to see to volatility returning, the wild swings present opportunity - and peril.

Trade carefully.
 
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Cal166

Diamond Member
May 6, 2000
5,079
8
81
I got my statements this week. Had the courage to open them this time.

God, I have this urge to push in a bunch more money on SRNE. Every bone in my body tells me it's going to push higher.

Can you stop me Felix? Do that logic thing that you do.
Your bones were right. Look at SRNE go!
 

dasherHampton

Golden Member
Jan 19, 2018
1,752
262
96
Up up and away.

The not so bright side - I'm locked into $4 calls.

The bright side - I'll bank about $10000 total if SRNE stays above $4.

Felix earned that bottle of scotch. Still a ways to go though. The calls are for 6/19. There's still time for SRNE to pull a fast one.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,054
123
106
Your bones were right. Look at SRNE go!

They claim to have a COVID cure, but having the cure and making the cure may be separate things. If they can make the cure cheaply, they will certainly rocket higher.

 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,731
353
126
Man look at Sorrento go. I was highly tempted to buy 1000 shares yesterday as a gamble. But then I got too busy at work.

If you recall when it went near $3 last week then pulled back if that was a sign someone knew something.

Anyway as KB said finding a solution and making it are two different things. In other words, doing a secondary offering to have available capital. The trading rulebook also says you buy the rumor and sell the news.

On the other hand, SRNE could be propelled to new 52 week highs for a while and those "mysterious" $7 buyout offers might also reemerge.

Hard to say what happens next. My money is locked up right now, so I cant do anything.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,731
353
126
Up up and away.

The not so bright side - I'm locked into $4 calls.

The bright side - I'll bank about $10000 total if SRNE stays above $4.

Felix earned that bottle of scotch. Still a ways to go though. The calls are for 6/19. There's still time for SRNE to pull a fast one.
You know, you took the risk so you get the reward. We all have trading ideas and make our case. Some things work and some things bomb.

I am glad to know we got a winner here, but this could yave easily been a dud. I guess thats why it pays to do your own research and see if it makes sense.

Because in the end the risk is yours to take. :)
 
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Nov 8, 2012
15,375
2,538
126
Just mentioning... still holding out on any and all further investments.

Put my 401k on safe money market funds (but pumping money into it in anticipation)...

I do however still put a few hundred into the market every month just for kicks though, but...

Holding on to cash I have and ready for the realistic market drops that are.... *looks at watch*....any day now....



As much as the devil's advocate is trying to change my mind saying "No, no! The market reached its bottom and has been going nothing but up over the last month!".... the sane side of me is saying people will start shitting bricks when 20% of mortgages aren't paid in the next 2 months...

Whats going on in this market right now is absolutely fucking nuts.
 

IEC

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Jun 10, 2004
13,874
3,388
136
Also for the first time ever in the US might be having some negative interest rates....
Sigh... Jerome Powell addressed this in the Fed talk this week.

We are NOT going to negative interest rates. For some very good reasons.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,731
353
126
And here I thought a Tesla Model S was impossible to beat....an old Miata with dual electric motors smokes it!

 

snoopy7548

Diamond Member
Jan 1, 2005
5,050
2,034
136
Just mentioning... still holding out on any and all further investments.

Put my 401k on safe money market funds (but pumping money into it in anticipation)...

I do however still put a few hundred into the market every month just for kicks though, but...

Holding on to cash I have and ready for the realistic market drops that are.... *looks at watch*....any day now....



As much as the devil's advocate is trying to change my mind saying "No, no! The market reached its bottom and has been going nothing but up over the last month!".... the sane side of me is saying people will start shitting bricks when 20% of mortgages aren't paid in the next 2 months...

Whats going on in this market right now is absolutely fucking nuts.
IMO, you got very lucky if you put your 401k into a money market fund back in February... that is the move of a lifetime. If I had a crystal ball, I would do that before anything else.

But trying to time the market again... I don't know man. We can't say for sure what's going to happen, but I would at least start putting decent-sized chunks of that money back into investments at a steady rate, at least enough at a time so that by the end of the year, you're fully invested as you previously were.

Here's the DJIA YTD. If the market steadies out, you've already missed the first upswing from when it was at 18k (that is probably when I would have thrown all my money back into investments; you can't get too greedy).


1589637034940.png
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,731
353
126
1/4 miles in 9.x sec :eek:

so why didnt Tesla go the way of this Miata with dual electric motors?
Not sure, but if profit is your motive, you probably try to get by with one. If its your personal dream car and you can afford it, money is no object.
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
25,985
534
126
Here's the DJIA YTD. If the market steadies out, you've already missed the first upswing from when it was at 18k (that is probably when I would have thrown all my money back into investments; you can't get too greedy).


View attachment 21113
greed is another word for gambling and thats what im doing.
i didnt know where it would bottom but i expect the market to revisit the bottom sometime in the short future so i held off instead of blindly buying in March.

now i have a data point of dow =18.5k.
will be spending 6figures to buy for the long term at that point.
after that, will spend another 6 figures to buy at +/- 10% of that point.
then be done with speculating for a while.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,731
353
126
Welp, the QQQ $231 target is almost here, but we had a hiccup last week. Stocks on fire - great for longs, but makes it hard if you want to look for a bargain when everything is so damn pricey.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
22,233
633
126
IMO, you got very lucky if you put your 401k into a money market fund back in February... that is the move of a lifetime. If I had a crystal ball, I would do that before anything else.

But trying to time the market again... I don't know man. We can't say for sure what's going to happen, but I would at least start putting decent-sized chunks of that money back into investments at a steady rate, at least enough at a time so that by the end of the year, you're fully invested as you previously were.
People need to remember that all stock trades are in pairs. Just buying low is not a great move. Just selling high is not a great move. You need to do both, buy low AND sell high (in either order).

For that reason, I would not call selling in February a "move of a lifetime". Suppose someone sold at the all time S&P daily high on Feb 19: 3386.15. If that person bought back in right now, the gain would be 15.2%. That is a nice gain, but in terms of stocks 15% gain is no where near a "move of a lifetime". Even if that same person got in on Mar 23, the gain would only be 51.4%. Yes, that is a great move, but still not a "move of a lifetime".

You are correct about market timing. It is pretty easy to get in at a low or get out at a high. It is very hard to do both. And you have to do both.
 
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snoopy7548

Diamond Member
Jan 1, 2005
5,050
2,034
136
People need to remember that all stock trades are in pairs. Just buying low is not a great move. Just selling high is not a great move. You need to do both, buy low AND sell high (in either order).

For that reason, I would not call selling in February a "move of a lifetime". Suppose someone sold at the all time S&P daily high on Feb 19: 3386.15. If that person bought back in right now, the gain would be 15.2%. That is a nice gain, but in terms of stocks 15% gain is no where near a "move of a lifetime". Even if that same person got in on Mar 23, the gain would only be 51.4%. Yes, that is a great move, but still not a "move of a lifetime".

You are correct about market timing. It is pretty easy to get in at a low or get out at a high. It is very hard to do both. And you have to do both.
Good point. I was being hyperbolic, but more in terms of your average investor who has little experience outside of a company-sponsored 401k. Getting a 50% return while the stock market tanked and the majority of people "lost" 30%+ is a heck of win; especially if you've got around $200-300k in your 401k and you're not even halfway to the normal retirement age.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,054
123
106
Sold CCL for a 20% profit. Will buy it back when it goes under $12, rinse and repeat.

Market is getting ahead of itself. Any vaccine will take 1 year - 18 months before we can get it out to the masses.
I think what comes back first is retail shopping, then restaurants/bars, then hotels, then cruising, then flying last.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
25,731
353
126
Sold CCL for a 20% profit. Will buy it back when it goes under $12, rinse and repeat.

Market is getting ahead of itself. Any vaccine will take 1 year - 18 months before we can get it out to the masses.
I think what comes back first is retail shopping, then restaurants/bars, then hotels, then cruising, then flying last.
Congrats! I bought around the $15.50 range for my two small cash accounts, so Im not at breakeven yet. I think CCL sees $20+ so Im holding for then. While they plan to begin limited cruises in August, anything can happen so nothing is guaranteed.
 

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