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Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

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JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
26,839
1,165
126
It's good and fun on a message board, but in all seriousness:

A lot of retirees have been told over the past decade that oil was safe until at least 2030. It still probably is.

But this will be harsh awakening for folks who have no ability to recover. A nervous cup of coffee, to be sure.
what do you mean was told oil was safe for the past decade??? oil dropped like a rock 5 years ago!
these retirees were given wrong financial advise or did they not think why gas at the pump was $0.99/gallon 5yrs ago?

the older you are, the more in bonds you should be.
if retired, Boglehead consensus is at least 40% bonds.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
26,335
477
126
Commodity price panics have occurred many, many times in American history for almost every type including Gold, Silver, Coffee, Oil, you name it.

Speaking of Gold, they decided to short that one too, now its also negative.

No place to hide tomorrow but cash.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
26,335
477
126
thought gold pierced the $1700 resistance level?
Gold Slides Below $1,700 as Investors Look Everywhere for Cash

 
Nov 8, 2012
18,524
3,893
136
It's good and fun on a message board, but in all seriousness:

A lot of retirees have been told over the past decade that oil was safe until at least 2030. It still probably is.

But this will be harsh awakening for folks who have no ability to recover. A nervous cup of coffee, to be sure.
Anyone with half a brain has been preaching this for decades: Oil is volatile.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
26,335
477
126
16,000,000 people in locked down in Italy.

European markets in free-fall down 7-10%
 
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JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
26,839
1,165
126
Ok, so USOU, UWTI, WTIU are the 3x LONG OIL ETFs. Now, OIL is down 33% today, so theoretically, these ETFs should go to ZERO.

WTID, DWTI and USOD are the 3X SHORT OIL ETFs. These should be up 100% today.

I know these things have clauses where if the fund manager thinks an ETF has collapsed and is nonfunctional, they can halt trading and cash out it for whatever they think is fair, never to trade again.
premarket 8am: oil @ 32 (-22%), uwti @ 1.7, dwti @ 16.5 (70% gain)

so 22% x 3 = 66%.

but because of consecutive down days, leveraged shorts get a slight multiplicative gain. in this case , it looks like 4%
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
26,335
477
126
I said it earlier this year, be careful what you buy. Until the panic is over, its not safe to go outside. My goal was QQQ 192 going back a few weeks, and its about to hit it. Assuming the worst, we may see QQQ 140, which is a 42% decline from its high of 234.

Many oil companies will be filing for bankruptcy,. For your own sanity, stay the hell away from oil.

People have been buying XOM and getting burned all the way down, and they are the most likely to survive.
 

nisryus

Senior member
Sep 11, 2007
422
36
91
Friends being betting on INO and CODX. Indeed INO has gained quite a bit throughout the week and is posed to reach 18 today. But not too sure if it is too late to join in the fun as short.
 

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