Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[s0me0nesmind1]

Chase just sent me an offer that if I opened Chase Sapphire banking and deposit $75,000 and keep it there for 90 days, they'll pay me $1,000. Even if I didn't have the money, I could borrow the money from IB and deposit it in Chase. After I pay IB $485 in margin interest for 3 months, I would still net $515. It's literally free money using bank's money. But not really. I would have to pay taxes on that $1,000.

Yup. I play the "open bank accounts for a bonus" game as well. Usually have ~$2k by the end of the year to report come tax time.

Right now I'm doing Citi - Deposit $15k and get $400 I think.

 

[PlanetJosh]

hmm I've lost about 10k since I bought AMD some days ago about a day before the first big downturn (or crash) occurred.. Wonder if I should short it Monday in an attempt to get back that loss. Today (Friday), well it's too late to try, the markets are going up from the big lows earlier in the day and there's only about 8 minutes left in trading.

 

[zinfamous]

Some banks haven't adjusted interest rates yet, so I shoved some of my extra cash in a 2% CD.

OK, this has dropped a little recently, but:

American Express® Online Savings Account - Official Website

American Express savings accounts offer competitive savings rates, no monthly fees, & no minimum balance. Apply for a high yield savings account to earn more interest!

www.americanexpress.com

A lot of online savings accounts have been @ 2% for the last several years. I think there are probably some of them around, still. ....anyway, why do a CD if you can get a Savings account for the same rate? (I know, it's not locked in...as evidenced by my link, lol, but I know it was there for about 3 years, at least)


...first (and last time) I bought CDs was back in 2004ish, when ING had Savings accounts at 5%+ and CDs at 7% and 9% and more (I forget the specific rates, but I had a 3 and 5 year. I know they eventually dropped to 1% and less before I remembered to take my cash out on the next rollover). ....but that wasn't a bubble or anything, right?

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

OK, this has dropped a little recently, but:

American Express® Online Savings Account - Official Website

American Express savings accounts offer competitive savings rates, no monthly fees, & no minimum balance. Apply for a high yield savings account to earn more interest!

www.americanexpress.com

A lot of online savings accounts have been @ 2% for the last several years. I think there are probably some of them around, still. ....anyway, why do a CD if you can get a Savings account for the same rate? (I know, it's not locked in...as evidenced by my link, lol, but I know it was there for about 3 years, at least)


...first (and last time) I bought CDs was back in 2004ish, when ING had Savings accounts at 5%+ and CDs at 7% and 9% and more (I forget the specific rates, but I had a 3 and 5 year. I know they eventually dropped to 1% and less before I remembered to take my cash out on the next rollover). ....but that wasn't a bubble or anything, right?

It's mainly because banks interest rates are HIGHLY dependent upon the fed interest rates. So they are going to go down substantially as soon as they adjust - and with 3 more rate drops for march (potentially) it's basically going to get to a point of practically nothing.

Just from the last interest rate going down, my Discover savings account is already @ 1.6% when it was at a peak of ~2.1% if I recall...

Either way, I might regret putting as much as I did into the CD because I might want to have invested more of it once we hit bottom... but... oh well. I still have tons of other assets that I need to invest first (like an HSA account I've been meaning to put in stocks).

 

[IronWing]

Well hell damn, I just realized that my rewards credit card pays better than my savings account. F' saving money.

 

[ponyo]

Well hell damn, I just realized that my rewards credit card pays better than my savings account. F' saving money.

You also don't pay taxes on credit card rewards earnings. Which is why I love credit card reward points and cash back but hate those bank checking and savings account cash promos. Screw paying high taxes on the reported 1099-INT.

 

[JEDI]

come on Russia. resist Opec+ cuts.
the chrono virus isn't hurting you since you a pipeline straight to China.

my 6figure short in oil is counting on you!

and damn it why did I sell my short @$62/barrel in Jan? only made a few thousand

thank you Russia!
oil now in a free fall.
I am printing $$$!

$35/barrel oil here we come!

 

[nisryus]

After the rollercoaster rides in the last two weeks, wife got spooked. She been asking me if we should invest in gold..

How do I go about that? Like ordering gold coin from US Mint? Or is it easier to invest in ETF on etrade? I was looking at ETF like BAR and IAU, but they don't look like they are providing much of a return. Like SGOL even dropped a tiny bit today.

 

[ponyo]

After the rollercoaster rides in the last two weeks, wife got spooked. She been asking me if we should invest in gold..

How do I go about that? Like ordering gold coin from US Mint? Or is it easier to invest in ETF on etrade? I was looking at ETF like BAR and IAU, but they don't look like they are providing much of a return. Like SGOL even dropped a tiny bit today.

You can buy physical or paper gold. GLD is popular gold ETF. Easy to buy and sell with very small spread. Physical is little more complicated. Physical usually carries premium over spot price of gold. And depending on which state you live, you might be charged sales tax on the purchase of physical gold. US Mint is like the worst place to buy physical gold for stacking. They mainly sell overpriced collectable gold coins to coin collectors.

There are numerous places where you can buy gold coins on the internet if you're in the US. Apmex is one of the largest precious metal retailer and they probably have the biggest selection. They're one of my favorites, and I've purchased lot of gold, silver, and platinum from them. JM Bullion is another I've had good experience with. Lot of dealers like Apmex and JM Bullion also sell on eBay. On eBay, BayPreciousMetals (BPM) is huge seller of gold coins. BPM is owned by Coins 'N Things who's the largest wholesale gold seller in the US. Coins 'N Things is the largest supplier of gold to the US federal government. There are also lot of other smaller sellers. I bought from pretty much all the major ones so if you ask me, I can tell you if the seller is legit or not.

I would stick with 1 oz American Gold Eagle or Gold Buffalo coin if you're in the US. Gold Eagle is 22k while gold Buffalo is 24k. Both contain the same 1 troy ounce of gold. Gold Eagle weighs slightly more than 1 troy ounce and also contain small amount of silver and copper.

 

[nisryus]

Thank you Ponyo! We might try and dip our toes with ETF first, then move up to physical gold at a later time. Might pm you about them at a later time.

 

[zinfamous]

After the rollercoaster rides in the last two weeks, wife got spooked. She been asking me if we should invest in gold..

How do I go about that? Like ordering gold coin from US Mint? Or is it easier to invest in ETF on etrade? I was looking at ETF like BAR and IAU, but they don't look like they are providing much of a return. Like SGOL even dropped a tiny bit today.

easiest way to buy physical is from the vending machine!

...you do live in Dubai, right?

 

[FelixDeCat]

You have to admit stocks were seriously overpriced. We had entered a new era. The trillion dollar era. 1T company valuations are "the new norm", so from that perspective everything appeared cheap in the market. So we went about with abandon trying to reward companies with 1T valuations regardless of actual earnings. Apple even hit 1.4T dragging the market along for the ride. We were overbought and nobody wanted to admit it.

Then a small Chinese lung infection goes "viral" worldwide right under our noses and catches everyone with their pants down - the market was completely exposed. At first, we dismiss the news and take a few points off the all time highs and call it a day.

Apple, which had grown to a massive 1.4T valuation is among the FIRST to warn of supply disruption and lower earnings. Later, several companies join in earnings warnings. These warnings start to spark a sell off as people try to discount how deeply earnings will be impacted.

All those people managing trillions in retirement accounts have been phoning anyone who will listen begging for action so they dont have to explain to mom and pop why their 401ks are going down even though we got ahead of ourselves. Fuck that!

Now comes government finally working together and the Fed. Nothing like a crises to end partisan bickering. And while I think we should definitely do what we can when necessary there is such a thing as overreacting, we will just never see it that way.

On Friday the government and media did what they could to manipulate prices upward by cajoling some Fed members to suggest that under the right circumstances they would consider zero rates. After spending the entire day down 4% on Friday, the manipulation worked and the maket went up nearly 3%....the last 15 minutes of trading. They have manipulated the closing price upward a few times lately despite continued declines that follow.

 

[JEDI]

You have to admit stocks were seriously overpriced. We had entered a new era. The trillion dollar era. 1T company valuations are "the new norm", so from that perspective everything appeared cheap in the market. So we went about with abandon trying to reward companies with 1T valuations regardless of actual earnings. Apple even hit 1.4T dragging the market along for the ride. We were overbought and nobody wanted to admit it.

Then a small Chinese lung infection goes "viral" worldwide right under our noses and catches everyone with their pants down - the market was completely exposed. At first, we dismiss the news and take a few points off the all time highs and call it a day.

Apple, which had grown to a massive 1.4T valuation is among the FIRST to warn of supply disruption and lower earnings. Later, several companies join in earnings warnings. These warnings start to spark a sell off as people try to discount how deeply earnings will be impacted.

All those people managing trillions in retirement accounts have been phoning anyone who will listen begging for action so they dont have to explain to mom and pop why their 401ks are going down even though we got ahead of ourselves. Fuck that!

Now comes government finally working together and the Fed. Nothing like a crises to end partisan bickering. And while I think we should definitely do what we can when necessary there is such a thing as overreacting, we will just never see it that way.

On Friday the government and media did what they could to manipulate prices upward by cajoling some Fed members to suggest that under the right circumstances they would consider zero rates. After spending the entire day down 4% on Friday, the manipulation worked and the maket went up nearly 3%....the last 15 minutes of trading. They have manipulated the closing price upward a few times lately despite continued declines that follow.

yup, great time to short the market. ie: SQQQ, or even the Volatility Index (VIX)
or short the market by proxy. ie: oil

 

[JEDI]

HOLY WTF?!
Saudi's going scorched earth on oil!

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3549550-saudis-launch-all-out-oil-price-war

Responding to Russia's face-slap on Friday, Saudi Arabia launched an all-out oil price war on Saturday. The world's No.2 oil producer (following the U.S.) slashed pricing for its crude in an effort to push as many barrels into the market as possible.


forget $35/barrel. oil will open BELOW this on Mon opening bell (unless the Saudi's do a 360).
$20/barrel here we come!
back to $0.99/gallon gas at the pump ala 2015! (wow.. it's been 5years already??)

1st world problem:
I'm going to have sooooooooooooooooo much capital gains this year from oil falling that I need to pay estimated taxes

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

HOLY WTF?!
Saudi's going scorched earth on oil!

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3549550-saudis-launch-all-out-oil-price-war

Responding to Russia's face-slap on Friday, Saudi Arabia launched an all-out oil price war on Saturday. The world's No.2 oil producer (following the U.S.) slashed pricing for its crude in an effort to push as many barrels into the market as possible.


forget $35/barrel. oil will open BELOW this on Mon opening bell (unless the Saudi's do a 360).
$20/barrel here we come!
back to $0.99/gallon gas at the pump ala 2015! (wow.. it's been 5years already??)

1st world problem:
I'm going to have sooooooooooooooooo much capital gains this year from oil falling that I need to pay estimated taxes

Shiiiiit, if that's true..... Lot of O&G companies going to be hurting.

EDIT: I wonder how much this pisses off our government and makes even conservatives hate Saudi's.... Our O&G Industry bitching and lobbying to them will definitely hurt and likely push them.

 

[JEDI]

Shiiiiit, if that's true..... Lot of O&G companies going to be hurting.

EDIT: I wonder how much this pisses off our government and makes even conservatives hate Saudi's.... Our O&G Industry bitching and lobbying to them will definitely hurt and likely push them.

well, natural gas is dead anyway.
it's been dead for a couple of years.
think why your home heating bill has been so low these recent winters.
(if you heat with gas)

Saudi's seem serious about the scotched earth tactic (for the short term at least) and not a bluff.
mon is going to be an oil blood bath.
whhhhheeeeeeeeeeee!

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

well, gas is dead anyway.
it's been dead for a couple of years.
think why your home heating bill has been so low these recent winters.
(if you heat with gas)

Saudi's seem serious about the scotched earth tactic (for the short term at least) and not a bluff.
mon is going to be an oil blood bath.
whhhhheeeeeeeeeeee!

To be honest, our gas bill has been relatively the same for the last 10 years. So... I'm not sure when it ultimately fell....

 

[ThatsABigOne]

1st world problem:
I'm going to have sooooooooooooooooo much capital gains this year from oil falling that I need to pay estimated taxes

Can you explain how does one "make" money on falling oil prices?

 

[daveybrat]

Can you explain how does one "make" money on falling oil prices?

There are a lot of folks who 'short' oil stocks. Can make a lot of money doing that right now.

 

[JEDI]

Can you explain how does one "make" money on falling oil prices?

I shorted oil at $52. it was 41 on fri.
it'll be below 35 on Mon open since Saudi lowered their selling price of oil by $7/barrel yesterday in phase 1 of their scorched earth tactic.
I shorted it for 6 figures.

edit:
the DOW is also probably going to sink mon since both Chevron and Exxon are components.
i say probably because Apple and Disney fanboys are irrational. (they also make up the DOW and might counter the downslide of the oil components.)

 

[K1052]

Oil producers going full Reservoir Dogs is certainly a development.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Dont worry, our government will come to the oil companies rescue. No company is allowed to fail these days. Not cruise lines. Not airlines. Not anybody.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

There are a lot of folks who 'short' oil stocks. Can make a lot of money doing that right now.

If i were to short O&G based on their price falling, I would definitely make sure to focus more on upstream companies that do the portion related to pumping oil oit of the ground (not necessarily the refineries, distributors, etc.).

Companies like Exxon are well diversified across all parts of O&G, and across all kinds of countries... so personally I wouldn't target a big dog like that.

 

[ponyo]

I shorted oil at $52. it was 41 on fri.
it'll be below 35 on Mon open since Saudi lowered their selling price of oil by $7/barrel yesterday in phase 1 of their scorched earth tactic.
I shorted it for 6 figures.

edit:
the DOW is also probably going to sink mon since both Chevron and Exxon are components.
i say probably because Apple and Disney fanboys are irrational. (they also make up the DOW and might counter the downslide of the oil components.)

So tell us what instrument you used to short oil.

 

[JEDI]

So tell us what instrument you used to short oil.

leveraged oil