***Official*** 2019 Stock Market Thread

[dasherHampton]

I'm back to even for the year.

I need BILI to grind its way back up to at least 17 so I can start selling calls again.

 

[zinfamous]

I think it's good to keep small amount of your net worth in gold/silver (~5%, and 10% at the absolute most if you're loaded enough to not have to work). You typically pay above spot to obtain it and then sell for below spot when you need to unload it, so from the time of purchase you need prices to rise 5-10% just to break even. You also to consider that is it net worth you do not really want to move ever, because it provides wealth protection and peace of mind. Consider it a black hole. Because if the dollar starts weakening, are you going to want to trade a strengthening asset back into a weaker one? Probably not. Also having assets not tied electronically to your identity is very valuable too. I've read horror stories of people having their retirement accounts emptied... but at least physical gold, silver, and even your cryptocurrency private keys are safe from such a scenario. Those who don't hold any bullion or crypto need to wake up.

Uh, so why not just maintain one of those ~0.5% Money Market funds? Sounds like a lot of work for no extra benefit, trying to flip gold on spec every couple of weeks when countless other funds do that same value trading for you automatically.

Thing is, the myth of gold being valuable in recessions and depressions simply hasn't held up. As Felix posted about extreme cases, there are parts of the world where--holy shit!--the actual local natural resource--COCA CAKE!--is bartered and far more valuable. It's basically what you have--Felix's one community lives off of gold, because they can actually mine gold--if you're the dumbshit syphilitic Texan hoarding gold by buying it off the internet, and you actually have no natural resource near your home, then you are simply fucking doing it wrong, and you have a profound inability to read. ...you know, literacy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/18/world/americas/colombia-cocaine-farc-peace-drugs.html

the product can only be worth what it is worth. Gold has a very limited value outside of centuries-old feudal states, and high tech production. Getting the gold to facilities that can manufacture it into things that actually matter is far, far, far removed from all of the nonsense mythology that all the kooks of the Glenn Beck-o-sphere want you to believe is true. Coca leaf, obviously, has endless value well beyond where it is harvested, and of course intrinsic value where it is harvested...and this is the thing--these farmers DON'T WANT TO CULTIVATE IT.

The last time any worthwhile economy thought that gold was worth pegging a currency to, just before the World-wide Depression of the 20s and 30s, we learned that a lot of dumbfucks were hoarding piles of gold under their mattresses--JUST FOR THAT EVENT--and it was all suddenly worthless because no store, no bank, no anyone would take it for anything that those dumbshits needed to survive.

End of story, basically.

 

[zinfamous]

I'm back to even for the year.

I need BILI to grind its way back up to at least 17 so I can start selling calls again.

Damn, kinda wish you stuck to VTSAX, right, which is currently up 18.5% for the year?

 

[dasherHampton]

I was doing fine, up almost $45,000 on the year before the fall. I believe BILI will go back over $20 eventually. Maybe as high as $24-$25. Then I'll be up quite a bit more than that.

Shit happens. What can you do?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Holy crap! Gold is going parabolic! Up roughly $25 per day.

NUGT is even more lava hot (Goldminers 3X), doubled in less than 30 days, and gold is up another $23.45 just tonight!!

 

[zinfamous]

oh my goodness! It's up 12% today! Oh my heavens--please bring me my fainting couch! (who cares that it drops that much tomorrow, yesterday, recovers, is still a net 1% year out...WHO CARES?)


The daytime cable infomercial strikes the derpstates, yet again.

 

[FelixDeCat]

oh my goodness! It's up 12% today! Oh my heavens--please bring me my fainting couch! (who cares that it drops that much tomorrow, yesterday, recovers, is still a net 1% year out...WHO CARES?)

The daytime cable infomercial strikes the derpstates, yet again.

I get it, you prefer equities. You think people that buy gold are stupid. And for some reason you are trying to make this political. I get it. I wasnt trying to make this political and I dont get investment advice from infomercials. Ive been buying and selling silver and gold for years.

Gold is like an insurance policy, a store of value. Its not really meant as an investment no more than buying bonds right now that pay almost nothing, or in some cases zero. Bitcoin is the same, just insurance against the devaluation of the paper currencies like the dollar.

I would say gold is also superior to bitcoin. You need electricity and a computer to trade bitcoin or any other crypto. Gold is ancient, can be carried in your shirt pocket and does not require a smartphone to trade. I have some physical and own some NUGT.

As I said before, I have have not lost faith in the dollar, the economy, etc. Its just that I think the fair value of gold is $2,000 per ounce. What makes Bitcoin worth $11,000 each? It is market opinion just like anything else.

 

[ImpulsE69]

If gold is stupid, so is the entire market..I mean...that's reality. If the whole 'world collapses' thing actually happens, those tech stocks are going to be in worse shape than those holding gold. Gold has always been worth something because it has value beyond just 'purchasing things'. NUGT and JNUG and the like are not meant to be held, they are meant to be short holds..if not strictly day trades.

 

[jpiniero]

Current Fed odds is currently 100% for a cut next time, with a 28% chance of a double cut. They are expecting 2-3 cuts by the end of the year, and 3-4 cuts by April.

 

[JEDI]

Current Fed odds is currently 100% for a cut next time, with a 28% chance of a double cut. They are expecting 2-3 cuts by the end of the year, and 3-4 cuts by April.

why a cut?
the econ is doing fine??

 

[zinfamous]

why a cut?
the econ is doing fine??

The economy is doing fine for like, 10% of people. Unemployment is fine, but the vast majority of those employed are making something like 40% of what they would have been earning if salaries for all comparable jobs kept pace with CoL and value of job, for the previous half of the previous century, until Reagan showed up and systematically eliminated the middle class.

So, simple unemployment rate really doesn't mean what it used to. The stock market doesn't really mean anything to most people, even if they have a 401k or IRA or whatever. It's not like they can use that money to go out and buy diapers or a bowl of pho.

 

[jpiniero]

why a cut?

Because the stock market will crash if they don't. See December for reference.

 

[dasherHampton]

Welp, I finally decided on a plan and pushed in.

If BILI is over 20 on Sep 20 I'll make the largest single amount I've ever made on a single trade. I don't think it'll happen but it could.

So cross your fingers. Or root against me. lol

 

[jpiniero]

Big rally today on the weak Job numbers from ADP.

 

[KB]

Solid jobs number and the markets see good news as bad news. I bet we start down pretty big but end the day neutral to higher.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Solid jobs number and the markets see good news as bad news. I bet we start down pretty big but end the day neutral to higher.

Eh, I think the fed is rather set regardless of a good jobs number. I'll predict being up all day.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I love how everyone expects the Fed to cut when the market is all time highs. I heard bonds and fed fund futures were expecting close to a 100% chance of a .25 cut at the next meeting (before todays blowout jobs report), and the expectation of at least 3 quarter point cuts in 12 months.

They are calling it an "insurance rate cut" because everyone acknowledges its not really needed.

 

[jpiniero]

I love how everyone expects the Fed to cut when the market is all time highs. I heard bonds and fed fund futures were expecting close to a 100% chance of a .25 cut at the next meeting (before todays blowout jobs report), and the expectation of at least 3 quarter point cuts in 12 months.

See post #437.

It's still at 100% btw. The double cut odds went down a bit.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Sadly it likes the fed may cut rates for no reason.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Gold up nicely today.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The International Monetary Fund says the American dollar is "over valued".

Gold spikes to $1425.00

 

[FelixDeCat]

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin hints at change to stable American dollar policy, suggests no change "for now":

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...says-no-change-to-u-s-dollar-policy-as-of-now

In other words, that might be another trade tool to make American goods more competative - devalue the dollar.

Fed official supports cutting rates, markets read as 1/2 point rate cut in two weeks.

Gold jumps to $1450.

 

[FelixDeCat]

TSLA down $30 per share to $235 after poor earnings. Might it retest 52 week low? Or will it go back up again?

The Wall Street casino will soon tell us.

 

[dasherHampton]

Dammit.

I was going to buy Sprint when it started to pop. I had the buy order queued up at around 7 bucks a share but I couldn't pull the trigger.

Now it's up to 8 bucks.

 

[jpiniero]

Fed meets on Wednesday... double cut probability is currently 21%.