***Official*** 2019 Stock Market Thread

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JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,738
126
I don't understand the reasoning for rate cuts. Are we at risk for deflation? Hopefully the Fed doesn't see it as their job to prop up the stock market.
im betting trump is pressuring the fed to drop rates so he can continuing on piling up US debt.

$20T x 2.5% interest = $500B/yr interest payments

the lower the interest rate, the more debt Trump can pile up debt to make the economy 'look' strong and more record stock market highs for a better chance at re-election :mad:
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,994
31,557
146
Dang, might hit my $35 sell order on my AMD shares today. Because I'm stupid, I am now somewhat regretting it. E3 happening this week, they are going to be on fire for a day or so, unless of course Trump meddling hits them again.

I should probably only sell half the shares (never took profits yet, on my original $4.65 purchase)--but as with many things (passwords and such), I am Intentionally "air-gapped" from myself with these accounts while at work. All of my login info and account details (which I never know) is stored at home, lol.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,406
389
126
I wonder who's going to be left holding the Beyond Meat bag.


Everyone knows it is outrageously priced and it definitely is, but the price keeps going up as the latest new [short] entrants into the stock keep getting short squeezed. Its funny to watch and an important lesson people never learn: You never short a stock based on valuation, as the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,274
2,789
126
Have you guys head of "beyond meat"? Its some sort of hot vegan thing. I think they are even listed on the stock market.

Is it too late to invest in this secret, ground floor opportunity?
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,842
4,785
146
Dang, might hit my $35 sell order on my AMD shares today. Because I'm stupid, I am now somewhat regretting it. E3 happening this week, they are going to be on fire for a day or so, unless of course Trump meddling hits them again.

I should probably only sell half the shares (never took profits yet, on my original $4.65 purchase)--but as with many things (passwords and such), I am Intentionally "air-gapped" from myself with these accounts while at work. All of my login info and account details (which I never know) is stored at home, lol.

Well, you waited longer than I did and it paid off.

Best of luck, personally I would let it go like hotcakes at this point.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,994
31,557
146
Well, you waited longer than I did and it paid off.

Best of luck, personally I would let it go like hotcakes at this point.

lol. still holding so it hasn't paid off, yet. My $35 sell order never happened because it stopped at $34.30, damn it! I did cut the sell order in half, though. I feel better about that, because I still haven't taken any kind of profits so I might as well do so.

Yes, I should do it now, but I'm not gunna. no no no.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
17,203
7,580
136
I agree. The question is, did the market price in a rate cut and when it doesn't happen will the market freak out?

No, the odds weren't that great that they would cut this time. Next time though... watch out if they don't cut.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,994
31,557
146
No, the odds weren't that great that they would cut this time. Next time though... watch out if they don't cut.

I guess the call was for 2 rate cuts within the next year, so could totes still happen.

...fuck me sideways I actually typed "totes"
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,274
2,789
126
Gold pops on inflationary rhetoric affecting the pseudo-currencies. Near $1390 ounce.

Remember when coins were made from 90%+ solid silver and gold? And you got them as change at the grocery store?

Pepperidge Farm remembers!
 

overst33r

Diamond Member
Oct 3, 2004
5,761
12
81
Gold pops on inflationary rhetoric affecting the pseudo-currencies. Near $1390 ounce.

Remember when coins were made from 90%+ solid silver and gold? And you got them as change at the grocery store?

Pepperidge Farm remembers!

who cares about gold? assuming long term horizon, you're better off with things that produce actual value.

EDIT: I don't mean to be antagonistic, I just haven't come across an argument for gold that makes sense.


11973410994_071be41f41_o.png
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,994
31,557
146
I don't mean to be antagonistic, I just haven't come across an argument for gold that makes sense.

That's because there hasn't been one for nearly 100 years now. The hilarious thing about "the value of metals!" when shit really hits the fan is that, precisely at that time where you have argued that it will have value, it absolutely has no value. Who is going to buy it from you, and with what? It literally does nothing for a population that now values food, water, etc.

It has less value. I think holding metals are fine from a commodities trading perspective, based on that erroneous notion that it will have greater value at that time, but that is why you should only trade it to exploit those trends, well before the worst happens.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,406
389
126
Anyone know what happens to a purchased company's class B shares when that company is merged with another?
My google-fu is failing me on this one.

I ask because CBS is very likely to purchase Viacom in the near future. They have tried many times before, but I think it happens this time.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3472199-cbs-set-make-viacom-offer-coming-weeks-wsj

VIA (A shares/ $35) are trading 5 bucks higher than VIAB (B shares/ $30). I thought in a merger B and A shares would be treated as equals and bought at the same price. Since CBS must offer more than $35 per share in order to get the A shares votes, VIAB would be the bigger winner, but I am wondering, can CBS offer less money for B shares since they have no voting rights?
 

njdevilsfan87

Platinum Member
Apr 19, 2007
2,349
270
126
who cares about gold? assuming long term horizon, you're better off with things that produce actual value.

EDIT: I don't mean to be antagonistic, I just haven't come across an argument for gold that makes sense.


11973410994_071be41f41_o.png

Confused about this chart. How is a dollar worth 5 cents in "dollar value"? What is the constant here? Or is it that $0.05 purchases the same that $1 did in 1812 due to inflation?
 

overst33r

Diamond Member
Oct 3, 2004
5,761
12
81
Confused about this chart. How is a dollar worth 5 cents in "dollar value"? What is the constant here? Or is it that $0.05 purchases the same that $1 did in 1812 due to inflation?
Correct. $1 in 1802 is worth 5 cents in 2012. This is an inflation adjusted "real" return using a dollar log axis.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,274
2,789
126
Umm..ask the people of Venezuela what happens when fiat money is no longer valid currency.

Our problem is that we are being slowly boiled to death with a massive national debt that is devaluing the dollar on a daily basis.

Gold is the only reliable physical currency accepted worldwide. Google Venezuelan gold mines and the population has to mine daily JUST TO EAT.

Your eyes will be opened.
 

overst33r

Diamond Member
Oct 3, 2004
5,761
12
81
Umm..ask the people of Venezuela what happens when fiat money is no longer valid currency.

Our problem is that we are being slowly boiled to death with a massive national debt that is devaluing the dollar on a daily basis.

Gold is the only reliable physical currency accepted worldwide. Google Venezuelan gold mines and the population has to mine daily JUST TO EAT.

Your eyes will be opened.
I googled. The population is mining gold for the government, which in turn pays them in useless Bolivars while the government sells the gold to pay for imports from places like Turkey. But one could say that's because Venezuela's currency is worthless, not say another fiat currency such as US dollars...
If we get to the point of disaster guns/ammo/food is worth MUCH more than gold because it has utility.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,274
2,789
126
I googled. The population is mining gold for the government, which in turn pays them in useless Bolivars while the government sells the gold to pay for imports from places like Turkey. But one could say that's because Venezuela's currency is worthless, not say another fiat currency such as US dollars...If we get to the point of disaster guns/ammo/food is worth MUCH more than gold because it has utility.

You googled, but here is what you missed, the point I was trying to make about the need to have a small amount of gold / silver while its still relatively affordable using dollars:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/08/venezuela-puerto-ordaz-gold-mines-armed-gangs

There, in swampy, malaria-ridden pits controlled by criminal gangs, men labour away much as they would have done centuries ago. The lumps of yellow metal they extract through backbreaking work now power the city; gold has become so pervasive that medieval-style barter is replacing hard currency across the city.

“More than half our clients want to pay in gold,” said one estate agent in Puerto Ordaz, who described a recent nerve-racking drive through the increasingly lawless city to broker a deal, following buyers carrying an apartment’s worth of precious metal.

Even the universities have been swept up in the gold rush. “In November, one of the girls who is studying here told me: ‘A degree is not expensive, because its only 2.5g of gold [for a semester],’” said Arturo Peraza, “It was the first time I learned the value of a university education in grams of gold. I could not have imagined it.”

Shopping malls have been taken over by metal dealers, who sit idly in rows of shops that once sold electronics or clothes, waiting for miners to arrive with crumbs of yellow to exchange for cash. Men with wary eyes and barely concealed guns stand near the main exits.

The men who dig for gold include professionals whose jobs were engulfed by the crisis or whose salaries have been eroded by hyperinflation to levels that will buy them a few loaves of bread, or perhaps a bag of rice.

“I have no choice if we want to eat – I haven’t been paid for months,” said Lucia, a primary school teacher who twice a week makes the 18 hour round trip with her husband and two small children, risking malaria and violence for a small markup that will keep a roof over their heads, and the most basic of meals on the table. She asked not to use her real name for fear of losing her job.

As can see, gold is the worlds most reliable currency in times of crises. While I have not lost faith in US dollars, you have to remember paper money has an intrinsic value of zero.

You also mentioned that guns/food/ammo are more valuable and that is true. But even in ancient history people needed to trade. You might not want to trade ammunition for food, but you might trade gold for food. What about medicine? Would you trade a gun for medicine? Maybe. But they may also take gold. There has always been a need for something that people will agree to accept for payment that can be considered a store of value.

Gold has stood the test of time.
 
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overst33r

Diamond Member
Oct 3, 2004
5,761
12
81
You googled, but here is what you missed, the point I was trying to make about the need to have a small amount of gold / silver while its still relatively affordable using dollars:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/08/venezuela-puerto-ordaz-gold-mines-armed-gangs



As can see, gold is the worlds most reliable currency in times of crises. While I have not lost faith in US dollars, you have to remember paper money has an intrinsic value of zero.

You also mentioned that guns/food/ammo are more valuable and that is true. But even in ancient history people needed to trade. You might not want to trade ammunition for food, but you might trade gold for food. What about medicine? Would you trade a gun for medicine? Maybe. But they may also take gold. There has always been a need for something that people will agree to accept for payment that can be considered a store of value.

Gold has stood the test of time.
Fair enough. I am understanding your angle as less of a traditional investment by typical definitions, but more of an insurance policy for the future.
 

njdevilsfan87

Platinum Member
Apr 19, 2007
2,349
270
126
I think it's good to keep small amount of your net worth in gold/silver (~5%, and 10% at the absolute most if you're loaded enough to not have to work). You typically pay above spot to obtain it and then sell for below spot when you need to unload it, so from the time of purchase you need prices to rise 5-10% just to break even. You also to consider that is it net worth you do not really want to move ever, because it provides wealth protection and peace of mind. Consider it a black hole. Because if the dollar starts weakening, are you going to want to trade a strengthening asset back into a weaker one? Probably not. Also having assets not tied electronically to your identity is very valuable too. I've read horror stories of people having their retirement accounts emptied... but at least physical gold, silver, and even your cryptocurrency private keys are safe from such a scenario. Those who don't hold any bullion or crypto need to wake up.