***Official*** 2019 Stock Market Thread

[jpiniero]

I think the Street viewed it as an admission that they need to slash costs. Which usually they like, but this is Tesla.

 

[jpiniero]

I think the Street viewed it as an admission that they need to slash costs. Which usually they like, but this is Tesla.

 

[ponyo]

There'll still be service centers. THis is for just buying the car. Part of the issue is that they don't have dealerships and some states didn't give them an exemption.

yep. And I suspect everything will be shifted to service centers and they'll open up lot more new service centers. Elon said his goal this year is to greatly expand service centers and mobile service. Supposedly like 80% of all sales last year were all done online So going only online sales doesn't sound so crazy. But all those sales were to early adopters and Tesla fans who already knew what they wanted. Now Tesla has to convince the mainstream buyers and average Joe who probably doesn't know lot about Tesla and electric cars. That could be harder with this change. I'm a firm believer if the product is awesome, it will sell itself once they try it. And Tesla cars are awesome. The problem is how do you convince the mainstream buying public who has very little knowledge of the product to buy expensive automobiles without a test drive so they can learn firsthand how awesome it is?

Along with this online only sales change, Tesla slashed prices worldwide. And the price cuts were pretty drastic especially on the highest P models of S and X. For example in China, this was the change yesterday.

The P100D S and X models are basically pure profit for Tesla but $40-50k cuts are still large. Taiwan and Australia supposedly got close to $100k price cut on the P100D S and X models but lot of that are fees and taxes. This is going to kill Tesla's margin in the short term but if they make it up with volume, they will be sitting pretty long term. All I know is yesterday's price cuts and the introduction of the $35k Model 3 just made it 100 times harder for legacy automakers who's looking to release "Tesla killers" this year and next to compete and try to catch Tesla. The speed and the pace Tesla is innovating and dropping prices on EV is breathtaking. Most of these "Tesla killers" are DOA. Tesla is now not only the best EV, it's now the cheapest EV in its class. Tesla is getting pretty close to price parity with ICE cars. Exciting stuff.

 

[FelixDeCat]

In other news Ford and GM now refuse to release monthly sales figures as has been the norm for over a half century. They are opting for quarterly sales figures.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

In other news Ford and GM now refuse to release monthly sales figures as has been the norm for over a half century. They opting for quarterly sales figures.

That an indicator that sales are going to suck? If so I honestly find that surprising since I've heard nothing but good news lately that high profit trucks are being sold pretty well.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Whats everyone's thoughts on Lyft's IPO? Think it's worth buying in early - or wait a bit since Uber will be doing their IPO shortly after next year.

 

[jpiniero]

Whats everyone's thoughts on Lyft's IPO? Think it's worth buying in early - or wait a bit since Uber will be doing their IPO shortly after next year.

There's a lot to hate - Uber is way bigger, the moat is tiny (no reason for a tech or car company to buy them completely out - just make their own app) and ride sharing may not be all that profitable without self driving cars, which is still a bit off. Not to mention plenty of cities who seem to hate ride sharing in general, either because of taxi lobbying or urbanists who hate cars.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

There's a lot to hate - Uber is way bigger, the moat is tiny (no reason for a tech or car company to buy them completely out - just make their own app) and ride sharing may not be all that profitable without self driving cars, which is still a bit off. Not to mention plenty of cities who seem to hate ride sharing in general, either because of taxi lobbying or urbanists who hate cars.

Valid points all around. Ride sharing was definitely a necessary evil though. Taxis had the Monopoly so they had no drive to do basic innovation like make an app to hail a cab.

Hell I still remember as little as 5 years ago I was calling the cab companies to schedule a pickup time.

 

[ponyo]

Lyft is only in the US so they're not as useful. To me, Lyft is not worth $20-30 billion when US is their only market. At least with Uber, they're sort of global. I used Uber everywhere when I was in Cartagena and Bogota even though Uber is technically illegal in Colombia.

I see Lyft and Uber as only stop gap solution until we have full autonomous driving which I suspect will happen within the next 10-20 years. My bet is Tesla autonomous fleet will make Uber and Lyft obsolete.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Computer buying programs doing their job as usual....the business press cites trade optimism.....yet in reality there is no optimism.

Nobody tells the computers not to buy, they just let them run. Same thing happens in reverse, but not as often.

While I see no reason to buy the algorithms do.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Computer buying programs doing their job as usual....the business press cites trade optimism.....yet in reality there is no optimism.

Nobody tells the computers not to buy, they just let them run. Same thing happens in reverse, but not as often.

While I see no reason to buy the algorithms do.

According to Reuters articles they are making substantial progress.

Talks of taking off agriculture tariffs and they said rumors of a goal of March 29 having the final trade deal done.

Either way hoping to see a nice week of nothing but gains hopefully.

 

[dasherHampton]

I think tomorrow morning is going to be a good day to be watching your trading screen.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Yo - What is ATOT's thoughts on Activision Blizzard. We're talking a company with dedicated gamers (such as previously myself).

"Hardcore" gamers (which would stereotypical be someone like myself are complaining that the company is going more "mobile" and less gamer friendly (*cough* hardcore PC with Videocards *cough*)

So my question is this: The stock is now at about 50% of its highs ($80 vs ~$40). What do you think? Nothing but ups, or nothing but downs? Seems like a good time to buy or a good time to lose - it's either going to go up or down, but certainly not stay the same IMO.

Thoughts?

 

[jpiniero]

Checking out the mortgage rates, saw that you can still get under 4% if you are willing to roll the dice a bit with a 7/1 ARM. The Fed odds by the way are still showing very heavy flat odds through the end of the year.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Checking out the mortgage rates, saw that you can still get under 4% if you are willing to roll the dice a bit with a 7/1 ARM. The Fed odds by the way are still showing very heavy flat odds through the end of the year.

Explain to me interest rates like I'm 12 - because for the life of me I haven't understood that shit (and I'm too lazy to Google at the moment). What is a 5/1 vs a 5/5 ARM? I thought the /5 (at the end) was a reference to how often they can adjust the interest rate?

Either way... personally, I don't mind playing that game overall. I LOVED my PenFed 5/5 mortgage because before I even reached the 5 year adjustment I had already paid off the loan in full heh. I would have no problem continuing to play that game into my next house and pay my next one off in 5-7 years or so.

 

[jpiniero]

Explain to me interest rates like I'm 12 - because for the life of me I haven't understood that shit (and I'm too lazy to Google at the moment). What is a 5/1 vs a 5/5 ARM? I thought the /5 (at the end) was a reference to how often they can adjust the interest rate?

First number is how long it is before the rate changes the first time, second number is how long it is before it changes each subsequent time. So 5/1 it changes at the 5 year mark and then every year after that; 5/5 is at the five year mark and then every 5 years after that.

 

[DietDrThunder]

First number is how long it is before the rate changes the first time, second number is how long it is before it changes each subsequent time. So 5/1 it changes at the 5 year mark and then every year after that; 5/5 is at the five year mark and then every 5 years after that.

Wow! Even though I'll never have a need for an ARM, I actually learned something new today.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

My 5/5 ARM with Pentagon Federal Credit Union was awesome. Paid it off before it even hit the 5 year mark and they paid for any and all fees/closing costs.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

First number is how long it is before the rate changes the first time, second number is how long it is before it changes each subsequent time. So 5/1 it changes at the 5 year mark and then every year after that; 5/5 is at the five year mark and then every 5 years after that.

Thanks for the explanation

 

[jpiniero]

Wow! Even though I'll never have a need for an ARM, I actually learned something new today.

Yeah. The rate can be decently less but you can get blasted if rates go up at the adjustment; especially if you end up in a situation where you can't refinance or sell because the unit is underwater.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Yo - What is ATOT's thoughts on Activision Blizzard. We're talking a company with dedicated gamers (such as previously myself).

"Hardcore" gamers (which would stereotypical be someone like myself are complaining that the company is going more "mobile" and less gamer friendly (*cough* hardcore PC with Videocards *cough*)

So my question is this: The stock is now at about 50% of its highs ($80 vs ~$40). What do you think? Nothing but ups, or nothing but downs? Seems like a good time to buy or a good time to lose - it's either going to go up or down, but certainly not stay the same IMO.

Thoughts?

Since no one chimed in, Ill say this - I never traded that stock or any gaming stock. I guess if the economy is good a company like that should do well, but I dont know anything about it. Humanity goes through phases and for the last two decades games have evolved from PCs to consoles and mobile.

Every 10 years or so testosterone takes over and men put down the controllers and pick up tits. Less time gaming, more time dating. If we are in that cylce .... sell.

 

[dasherHampton]

I did my first impulse buy in a while today. Bought some NIO at close for a little over 7.

No real rational reason for it. Just a gut feeling. I think speculators will keep the stock afloat.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

ATOTs thoughts on buying some Boeing stock with the latest fall? Perhaps after the black box is revealed if they are or are not responsible?

Personally I like buying on dips. Wallstreet always over-reacts.

 

[woodman1999]

It's risky. Even if the black box absolves BA of any wrongdoing, I am wondering if nations start demanding more testing on the aircraft before they allow it back in service. That could lead to a long time before you see the stock climb back into the 420's.

 

[dasherHampton]

BA is a pretty high rent stock. You need a couple hundred grand to really even consider investing there.

It's not going anywhere long term.