***Official*** 2019 Stock Market Thread

[jpiniero]

Almost back to the levels from before the Fed selloff. Guess they must be convinced that the Fed has given in and won't be raising rates.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Almost back to the levels from before the Fed selloff. Guess they must be convinced that the Fed has given in and won't be raising rates.

Ill bet we have at least on rate hike this year.

Gold now $1320, silver $15.65. Will we see $1400/$18??

I have 20 silver eagles and one gold proof that I cant sell b/c its too damn pretty!

 

[DietDrThunder]

Ill bet we have at least on rate hike this year.

Gold now $1320, silver $15.65. Will we see $1400/$18??

I have 20 silver eagles and one gold proof that I cant sell b/c its too damn pretty!

My wife has a necklace that has a Gram Pamp Suisse Fortuna Gold Bar that is .9999 fine Gold that she bought for $120 when she was in her 20's. She hadn't worn it in years and asked me what I thought it was worth. I looked it up online and the spot price was around $42.

 

[jpiniero]

Ill bet we have at least on rate hike this year.

Current odds are very heavy flat through Jan 2020 with a small percentage of a cut at the end.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Current odds are very heavy flat through Jan 2020 with a small percentage of a cut at the end.

That would make sense. After being shamed by the President and shocked by the 25% market decline, the Fed has been cajoled into being more dovish. Gold has also been on a tear, now over $1330.

I ordered two more 1oz proof Eagles, now I will have three. Gold tends to go back down once it hits the mid $1300s. However, if the economy starts to show signs of slowing I think that might be good for gold.

edit:

I'll just put this here -

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/price-gold-fundamental-daily-forecast-113954446.html

 

[dasherHampton]

I made a 15% return this week. I'm pretty ecstatic. Might be my best week ever.

Bet heavy on IQ and Nvidia, among other things. Everything panned out.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I made a 15% return this week. I'm pretty ecstatic. Might be my best week ever.

Bet heavy on IQ and Nvidia, among other things. Everything panned out.

I remember when you were shorting IQ $27 puts. I thought it seemed risky. The market too a big haircut and no stock was immune in the interim. IQ went into the low teens at one point. Now back over $20.

If we see another large market drop will you still hold the stock, or was this just a trade?

 

[dasherHampton]

No I sold off before close on Friday. I wasn't holding anything through the weekend, especially since a lot of it was on margin. The IQ wasn't actually a buy from this week. I bought it a few weeks ago at around $18.50. It really popped this week.

 

[woodman1999]

Anybody have guesses on TSLA's big announcement today?

 

[DietDrThunder]

Tesla will be announcing their new "El Camino" like pickup based on the Model X.

 

[ponyo]

My guess is Mr. Tusk will announce the V3 Supercharger and maybe announce the availability of the $35k Model 3. I doubt he'll unveil the Model Y since it's too short notice. Or maybe Tusk will just do meme review to troll the SEC.

 

[DietDrThunder]

My guess is Mr. Tusk will announce the V3 Supercharger and maybe announce the availability of the $35k Model 3. I doubt he'll unveil the Model Y since it's too short notice. Or maybe Tusk will just do meme review to troll the SEC.

Not really a $35K Model 3.

 

[ponyo]

Not really a $35K Model 3.
View attachment 3726

Umm, yeah. And that's not SR Model 3. So what's your point? My guess is Lemur will disappear once SR is released. Lemur still has premium interior and glass roof. SR will not have all that plus smaller battery.

Or Tusk could just talk about Model 3 lease today. I don't really care about today's event. I expect to see the buy the rumor and sell the news.

 

[jpiniero]

A press conference just to call the SEC a bunch of pedos?

 

[zinfamous]

Not really a $35K Model 3.
View attachment 3726

Hmm, using this logic, the car actually gets cheaper every year that you own it, as it just returns cash to you in "not using gas." And at just under 10 years ownership, it starts paying you! Magic.

.....what's the estimate cost in electricity/year when charging that thing at home?

 

[jpiniero]

Ah so it was the 35k model.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Honestly I just keep hoping that Elon keeps making dumb statements to the point where the stock drops to $250. That's my buying point. Then I sell at around what it is now.

So the announcement was about the $35k model? Big deal....

 

[ponyo]

Cost of Tesla Model 3 SR for California residents $35k. minus $3,750 Federal tax credit. minus $2,500 California tax credit = $28,750.

Now it's time for all the people who claimed they would buy Model 3 only if it was available at $35k to put up or shut up. Musk changing his Twitter handle to Tusk with picture of the elephant yesterday was a clue. $35k Model 3 was the elephant in the room everyone been waiting for. Just like when Musk put up that picture of lemur animal right before the release of the mid-range Model 3. That was the clue for the mid-range.

Tesla also made changes to Autopilot price and features and brought back Full Self Driving option. The FSD price increased from $3k to $5k while Autopilot price decreased from $5k to $3k. And some of the Autopilot features moved to FSD package. I like this move as it makes basic Autopilot more affordable. And Tesla and Musk must be confident about the capabilities of the new Autopilot 3.0 hardware and software.

 

[Charmonium]

MZM velocity has been increasing since last year. That should be a good sign since it augers a higher level of economic activity. From the charts legend:

The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. In other words, it is the number of times one dollar is spent to buy goods and services per unit of time. If the velocity of money is increasing, then more transactions are occurring between individuals in an economy.
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MZM (money with zero maturity) is the broadest component and consists of the supply of financial assets redeemable at par on demand: notes and coins in circulation, traveler’s checks (non-bank issuers), demand deposits, other checkable deposits, savings deposits, and all money market funds. The velocity of MZM helps determine how often financial assets are switching hands within the economy.

 

[ponyo]

https://www.tesla.com/blog/35000-tesla-model-3-available-now

Tesla is going 100% online order only and closing most of its retail stores. They're going to keep some open in high traffic areas as galleries but most will be closed. That's extremely bold move. Customers will have 7 days or 1,000 miles trial period where they can return the car for full refund.

 

[dasherHampton]

Wow. Novavax dropped almost 70% overnight.

I had pretty big positions in that stock at various times. The buzz was always positive about their vaccine development. Like $5-$8 a share positive.

I sure some amateur investors got really f%^ked.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

https://www.tesla.com/blog/35000-tesla-model-3-available-now

Tesla is going 100% online order only and closing most of its retail stores. They're going to keep some open in high traffic areas as galleries but most will be closed. That's extremely bold move. Customers will have 7 days or 1,000 miles trial period where they can return the car for full refund.

That's not only bold - but IMO a stupid move. With our current car industry - especially with the likes of things like recall orders - it's very hard to do this type of behavior. Wish them the best of luck though, but I don't think it's a good idea personally.

 

[ponyo]

That's not only bold - but IMO a stupid move. With our current car industry - especially with the likes of things like recall orders - it's very hard to do this type of behavior. Wish them the best of luck though, but I don't think it's a good idea personally.

It's high risk, high rewards move. Something I wouldn't have the balls to do as the CEO but Elon has the balls size of a giant melons. I actually like the move and think it's brilliant and extremely risky at the same time. I understand why Elon did it as the dealers in bunch of states were preventing Tesla from having dealerships in some states. Now Tesla doesn't have to fight that war. The problem is buying a car requires loan for most people. Loans require lot of paperwork. Sure that can be done online but there are always exceptions and complications that can pop up. And some people like personalize face to face service. Elon thought he could automate everything and have robots build most of the Model 3. He learned the hard way that humans are underrated and brought back people for production. I'm afraid similar thing might happen here and local humans will be needed again. But if the online only sales strategy works, Tesla would save lot of money and once again change the auto industry.

Tesla is not closing service centers so things like recalls wouldn't be affected. In fact, they will likely open more service centers and plan to hire lot more mobile repair techs so they come to you for repairs and fixes.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Market seemed unhappy with Teslas move to close dealerships today.

 

[JTsyo]

That's not only bold - but IMO a stupid move. With our current car industry - especially with the likes of things like recall orders - it's very hard to do this type of behavior. Wish them the best of luck though, but I don't think it's a good idea personally.

There'll still be service centers. THis is for just buying the car. Part of the issue is that they don't have dealerships and some states didn't give them an exemption.