***Official*** 2019 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

Any bargains out there this morning?

The market is in the midst of a much needed bitchslap.

Stay away ye awkward investor and wait for the sun to shineth once again upon the market.

Friday is D-Day. Either Trump backs down or China folds.

 

[DietDrThunder]

The market is in the midst of a much needed bitchslap.

Stay away ye awkward investor and wait for the sun to shineth once again upon the market.

Friday is D-Day. Either Trump backs down or China folds.

Hmm, job numbers are good, US GDP is at 3.2%, I say either Trump holds, let's the tariffs kick in, then a compromise is made and both China and Trump save face.

Unfortunately, I have no real gauge on China's economy. With their currency manipulation and the fact that I don't believe the numbers that their government announces, it is hard for me to tell.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Tariffs will likely kick in.

China made a DUMB fucking move - and basically backtracked on EVERYTHING they previous agreed to. I understand in negotiations that there is push/pull...

Taking away everything previously agreed isn't negotiation, and it isn't push/pull - That's just downright unreasonable.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...pects-of-u-s-trade-deal-sources-idUSKCN1SE0WJ

 

[DietDrThunder]

What are your thoughts on Activision?

"Though Activision beat earnings and sales estimates in the first quarter, the company has been struggling to gain investor confidence. Gaming companies have been impacted over the last 12 months by the overwhelming response to Fortnite and PUBG.
Activision sales are estimated to fall 11.7% this year. The global gaming market is expected to rise by over 10% in 2019. Activision also laid off 800 employees in February 2019 driven by growth concerns."

"ATVI is trading at a forward PE multiple of 20.06x for 2019 and at 18x for 2020. In comparison, the company’s earnings are estimated to fall by 16% in 2019 and then gain 18% in 2020, which suggests that the stock is overvalued at the 2019 multiple.
Out of 27 analysts covering ATVI, 20 recommend a “buy,” and seven recommend a “hold.” There aren’t any “sell” recommendations. The average 12-month price target for ATVI is $52.75, indicating the stock is trading at a discount of 12% to average estimates."

 

[FelixDeCat]

Tariffs will likely kick in.

China made a DUMB fucking move - and basically backtracked on EVERYTHING they previous agreed to. I understand in negotiations that there is push/pull...

Taking away everything previously agreed isn't negotiation, and it isn't push/pull - That's just downright unreasonable.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...pects-of-u-s-trade-deal-sources-idUSKCN1SE0WJ

The probably explains why futures are down, again, about 1%.

Friday=D Day

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

What are your thoughts on Activision?

"Though Activision beat earnings and sales estimates in the first quarter, the company has been struggling to gain investor confidence. Gaming companies have been impacted over the last 12 months by the overwhelming response to Fortnite and PUBG.
Activision sales are estimated to fall 11.7% this year. The global gaming market is expected to rise by over 10% in 2019. Activision also laid off 800 employees in February 2019 driven by growth concerns."

"ATVI is trading at a forward PE multiple of 20.06x for 2019 and at 18x for 2020. In comparison, the company’s earnings are estimated to fall by 16% in 2019 and then gain 18% in 2020, which suggests that the stock is overvalued at the 2019 multiple.
Out of 27 analysts covering ATVI, 20 recommend a “buy,” and seven recommend a “hold.” There aren’t any “sell” recommendations. The average 12-month price target for ATVI is $52.75, indicating the stock is trading at a discount of 12% to average estimates."

Don't ask me, I have no idea wtf I'm doing heh.

Honestly though, it seems like videogames are becoming more of a fad. What was once an industry of big-time games getting people hooked for years and years now seems like a game gets really popular and then does a straight downhill of people leaving within a year.

I honestly hold some ounce of faith that ATVI (particularly their Blizzard portion) can prop themselves back up - since we are talking about a stock price that was cut in half. When things fall 50%, any company that is worth a shit will buckle down and start making big-time moves. Hence, why I invested in CMG after their e-coli debacle.

 

[dasherHampton]

Well this is certainly more janky than I thought it would be.

Still - not the the time to panic and sell anything that's down.

I know you guys hate options but these events are another example of how options can really hedge your positions. I'm not down nearly as much as I could be because I'm collecting premiums tomorrow and next Friday. They make up for about 80% of my losses at the present time.

 

[DietDrThunder]

Well this is certainly moire janky than I thought it would be.

Still - not the the time to panic and sell anything that's down.

I know you guys hate options but these events are another example of how options can really hedge your positions. I'm not down nearly as much as I could be because I'm collecting premiums tomorrow and next Friday. They make up for about 80% of my losses at the present time.

Even though you scare me, I know you are right.

 

[dasherHampton]

Even though you scare me, I know you are right.

A friend of mine kept telling me "SELL PUTS ON ROKU. IT'S EASY MONEY!"

But I didn't listen. Look at Roku go.

 

[dasherHampton]

So it seems likely now that they're trying to figure out a way for the Chinese president to save face in the event of a completed deal.

I wonder if they can pull that off.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I'm honestly surprised the market is going to close today with a positive outcome overall.... Dow is up ~50pts after being down ~300 at the start.

Can't save I've heard of much progress concerning the trade deal.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Futures not looking pretty again.....down over 1.25%

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Futures not looking pretty again.....down over 1.25%

Not surprising... I mean, Friday ended up only based on the PROSPECT of trade shit working out.

Now it's not looking so hot because China has a stick up their ass still.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Ouchies....

 

[FelixDeCat]

The market is in the midst of a much needed bitchslap.

Stay away ye awkward investor and wait for the sun to shineth once again upon the market.

The correction is still underway.

 

[dasherHampton]

Yeah it seems icky but I don't see this as a huge overall deal, even though my gains for the year are down quite a bit.

No time to run around like your hair is on fire.

My biggest decision this week is whether to buy back some puts I sold. I'm going to wait until Thursday to decide.

 

[dasherHampton]

I really wish Trump would cool it with the China tweets. It's not helping.

The Chinese government can NOT be seen as capitulating. They'd rather endure temporary hardship than appear weak.

 

[Ken g6]

One thing I've figured out with investing, look at absolute price, not how much it jumps in one day. I consider the S&P 500 at 2900+ to be very overpriced, and at 2800+ to still be overpriced. Though of course one needs to adjust expectations over time.

Aaaand now we're getting close to 2800. Which means, to me, that when the market stabilizes (isn't going down for a week or so) it will be time to buy. I just hope I have the patience.

 

[dasherHampton]

So many good stocks taking a hit.

Tegna is a winner. They even pay a small dividend. and they beat on earnings a few days ago. It's down over 7%.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

So many good stocks taking a hit.

Tegna is a winner. They even pay a small dividend. and they beat on earnings a few days ago. It's down over 7%.

Yeah, sucks right now I don't have enough free cash to play. About to pay 20% down on a new home =/

 

[dasherHampton]

Yeah, sucks right now I don't have enough free cash to play. About to pay 20% down on a new home =/

Yeah, I can't buy anything right now. I bought last Monday.

I don't want to go any deeper into margin.

 

[dasherHampton]

Whew - BILI must have beat. It just spiked almost 3%.

That's about as nervous as I've been in a long time waiting for an earnings report.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Somebody could say something to try and quell things (they always do, so dont be surprised).

 

[ImpulsE69]

I really hope the downtrend continues. I'm restricted at least for the next 4 months due to work. I can't buy the dips until that's over.

 

[dasherHampton]

A big batch of my options due on Friday got exercised early.

That's always good sign. There's only one reason to exercise options early, and that's to rebuy the stock at a lower price. It means the option holder in convinced the stock is going up.