***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

[DietDrThunder]

Does anyone really believe the jobless rate is at 4.1% and close to full employment and extremely tight labor market?

To me, I'd see a definite rise in wages, but wage growth seems to be stagnant.

 

[zinfamous]

Does anyone really believe the jobless rate is at 4.1% and close to full employment and extremely tight labor market?

To me, I'd see a definite rise in wages, but wage growth seems to be stagnant.

wages have been relatively stagnant for 3 decades+, though, relative to previous eras. Wonder why.

 

[Ns1]

lol wtf SHLD, over $3 now.

 

[mxnerd]

lol wtf SHLD, over $3 now.

Market thought Sears' real estate worth a lot back in 2008, now worthless?

 

[AznAnarchy99]

Dropbox jumped up this morning. Incoming war between Trumpy and Bezos.

 

[paperfist]

technically, Tesla has been heading towards bankruptcy since near-about their inception. Competing in the auto industry as a newcomer is one of the most difficult sectors to succeed in. Relative lack of inventory, as with Tesla, certainly makes things worse.

But, they have been long held aloft by the hopes and dreams of unicorn fart-addicted investors. Which, isn't nothing. I kind of like that people have this much confidence in them and that is all that keeps them going, but there really are no traditional fundamentals that support their valuation or stock price.

I forgot the numbers, but I was a little shocked they aren't profitable. Their cars are well reviewed and I'm surprised Musk of all people can't produce higher volume.

Reminds me a bit of amazon.

That's the vexing part of stocks, a company like this should have the value of dirt.

 

[dasherHampton]

Anybody catch any fish?

I've been taking a much needed break while I wait for the inevitable influx of MU shares.

 

[dasherHampton]

Possible contamination in the US strategic oil reserve? Oh boy.

 

[Ns1]

SHLD is definitely the most hilarious stock that I track. It peaked at $3.18 today before closing at $2.67

Anybody catch any fish?

FB earlier this week...wish I didn't blow a bunch of money on AMD before that.

 

[AznAnarchy99]

I have an irrational belief in TSLA and feel like their stock is gonna drop even more tomorrow with the recall and it's an opportunity to buy.

My rational point should be to buy MSFT with their shift in plan this year and their stock low with all of the market up and downs.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Anybody catch any fish?

I've been taking a much needed break while I wait for the inevitable influx of MU shares.

I want MU too, but I think its got to back to $48-$49 before real buying comes back. I had to dump my shares using the options to cover part of the loss. Also, having a short call spread on MU this week turned out to be the right call when the market took a dump.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I am neutral again. Alcoa kicks off earnings season mid April (4/18/18). Until then, anything can happen.

I suspect more selling pressure, but logic would dictate a run back up in anticipation of good earnings due to tax cuts.

 

[JEDI]

Possible contamination in the US strategic oil reserve? Oh boy.

is that why gas prices have risen 10% lately?

 

[jpiniero]

Was looking at the Fed Rate odds. June is a heavy favorite to hike to 175-200, but 200-225 is only decently favored in December. Granted I wouldn't be surprised if they hike it in May; the effective rate if I am reading it right is currently 168.

 

[dasherHampton]

is that why gas prices have risen 10% lately?

If it's isolated I'm sure I won't have a great effect. If it isn't? $100 oil, here we come.

I don't want it but that would be pretty great for my portfolio.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Does anyone really believe the jobless rate is at 4.1% and close to full employment and extremely tight labor market?

To me, I'd see a definite rise in wages, but wage growth seems to be stagnant.

Absolutely not. Plenty just got used to living on lower pay (under the table, government benefits, etc...).... We will see tons "re-entering" the labor force in the next year as if they are magical mythical unicorns that all of a sudden realize they can be beneficial to society.

 

[FelixDeCat]

China retaliation:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/01/chi...n-us-meat-and-fruit-amid-trade-war-fears.html

• China said it's rolling out new tariffs on meat, fruit and other products from the U.S.
• Those additional duties are in retaliation to President Donald Trump's new taxes on steel and aluminum imported into the U.S.
• All told, the extra tariffs will hit 128 kinds of U.S. products, multiple outlets reported. The list of new tariffs matches the list released by China on March 23, according to Reuters.

This was in response to the first set of American Tariffs. If Trump imposes additional tariffs as promised, the list will be expanded. Negotiations continue.

About 51% Micron's revenues come from China. Assuming a tech tariff, you can say hello to MU $25 in a hurry.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...es-with-the-most-at-stake-in-china-2018-03-29

Company Ticker ‘China’ sales ($mil) Total revenue - most recent reported fiscal year ($mil) Share of sales in ‘China’

Apple Inc. AAPL, +0.78% $44,764 $228,572 19.6%
Intel Corp. INTC, +5.00% $14,796 $62,761 23.6%
Qualcomm Inc. QCOM, +1.30% $14,579 $22,291 65.4%
Boeing Co. BA, +2.46% $11,911 $93,392 12.8%
Micron Technology Inc. MU, +1.26% $10,388 $20,322 51.1%
Broadcom Ltd. AVGO, -0.44% $9,466 $17,636 53.7%
Cisco Systems Inc. CSCO, +2.95% $7,650 $48,005 15.9%
Texas Instruments Inc. TXN, +1.94% $6,600 $14,961 44.1%
Procter & Gamble Co. PG, +0.56% $5,205 $65,058 8.0%
Starbucks Corp. SBUX, -0.02% $4,512 $22,384 20.2%
Western Digital Corp. WDC, +1.62% $4,271 $19,093 22.4%
Nike Inc. Class B NKE, +1.53% $4,237 $34,254 12.4%
3M Co. MMM, +1.38% $3,255 $31,657 10.3%
Skyworks Solutions Inc. SWKS, +1.41% $3,018 $3,651 82.7%
Applied Materials Inc. AMAT, +2.87% $2,746 $14,537 18.9%
TE Connectivity Ltd. TEL, +3.70% $2,414 $13,113 18.4%
Corning Inc GLW, +1.94% $2,230 $10,115 22.0%
Abbott Laboratories ABT, +1.16% $2,146 $27,390 7.8%
Cummins Inc. CMI, +1.52% $2,137 $20,428 10.5%
Amphenol Corp. Class A APH, +1.51% $2,067 $7,011 29.5%
Source: FactSet

 

[DietDrThunder]

Cool, I see that the indexes are down this morning. We'll give it a couple of days and see if any good buy opportunities appear.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Cool, I see that the indexes are down this morning. We'll give it a couple of days and see if any good buy opportunities appear.

Sell! Then buy. Then sell!

 

[FIVR]

And the MU and TSLA selloff continues. Speculative assets amirite?

 

[FIVR]

China retaliation:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/01/chi...n-us-meat-and-fruit-amid-trade-war-fears.html

• China said it's rolling out new tariffs on meat, fruit and other products from the U.S.
• Those additional duties are in retaliation to President Donald Trump's new taxes on steel and aluminum imported into the U.S.
• All told, the extra tariffs will hit 128 kinds of U.S. products, multiple outlets reported. The list of new tariffs matches the list released by China on March 23, according to Reuters.

This was in response to the first set of American Tariffs. If Trump imposes additional tariffs as promised, the list will be expanded. Negotiations continue.

About 51% Micron's revenues come from China. Assuming a tech tariff, you can say hello to MU $25 in a hurry.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...es-with-the-most-at-stake-in-china-2018-03-29

There should be some good economic news later this week Felix. I would not short the market yet.


The time approaches though....

 

[FelixDeCat]

There should be some good economic news later this week Felix. I would not short the market yet.


The time approaches though....

Currently short $53 x $52 MU call spread expiring Friday.

But yes, in this volatile market right now you can easily see a 1000 point DOW rally at any time.

 

[JEDI]

dow -500

wheeeeeeeeeeeee
/roller coaster ride

 

[DietDrThunder]

Sure glad I didn't buy drop box during their IPO week. We'll get to see how low it will go.

 

[dasherHampton]

MU at 25.

lol