***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

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FIVR

FIVR

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2016
3,753
911
106
Sold my TSLA calls this morning when it dropped below 290 resistance. 50% loss. I could've had a 70% gain on these same exact options if I had locked in profit instead of being a greedy tool. Oh well.
 
Mermaidman

Mermaidman

Diamond Member
Sep 4, 2003
7,987
93
91
I don't have the balls to trade in this market. Almost 600 pt swing today, on top of the gyrations over last few days!
 
D

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,693
566
136
I'm going to have to step back and retract a bit here.

I misunderstood the bet. I thought you meant that MU would be trading at 45 when the next EC happened, not that it would slip under 45 at any point in time until then. I'm not sure why I thought that; completely my fault.

Apologies. If I ever meet you in real life I'll buy you any drink you want.

PS - I do not think it actually will dip under 45 but that's a much broader bet.
 
Ns1

Ns1

No Lifer
Jun 17, 2001
55,420
1,600
126
well the morning started out good with a surprise limit sell on my SHLD stocks, but when I checked back in at 2pm everything was in the red.
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,247
2,779
126
Longer term I think FB has the potential to go under $100 as it may have to re-evaluate one of its greatest strengths....data mining and advertisers appetite for that information. Privacy concerns and potential government action to reign in FB's collection and storage of data might weigh for some time until they can appease the FTC and European Union.

I currently have no position in FB.
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
31,247
2,779
126
2/10/18...

FelixDeCat said:
I think we are headed for a full on BEAR MARKET in 2018 all based on higher interest rates.
Click to expand...

FIVR said:
weird that i agree with felix for once - we are headed for a bear market. I've closed my long positions and am now going 70% cash with the other 30% being about 50/50 short calls and long calls
Click to expand...


update...

When this happened the market had a nice bounce from a low of QQQ155 in Feb all the way back up to a 52 week high of $175, a $20 move up!

Now that we are back in the QQQ$150's, will the market retake lost ground short term after 1st quarter earnings in April / May.....or will the bear bite us all in the ass?

 
fleshconsumed

fleshconsumed

Diamond Member
Feb 21, 2002
6,486
2,363
136
Hard to say. AMD x86 group is doing fine, RTG is floundering without competitive products while mining sales are in decline.
 
dullard

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
26,191
4,857
126
Cepak said:
At what point does AMD become a buy? As of this post it is $9.93 a share.
Click to expand...
AMD has great products but terrible product pricing (terrible for a potential stock owner). Fundamentally, their whole existence is based on the concept that Intel won't lower prices. If Intel lowers prices, then there is almost no reason for anyone to buy AMD products. So, you have a risk there that AMD can easily be worth $0/share if Intel goes that way. AMD's other risk is that a big chunk of their sales are for digital coin mining, a fad that seems to be fading. If digital coin mining diminishes, then AMD is competing against Intel on price but also against used but recent model AMD parts on the secondary market. It would be hard for AMD to compete against its own products in that case.

On the flip side, Intel doesn't appear to want to lower prices and AMD's server chips can potentially make a big impact. If AMD can get a significant server share, then AMD stock could skyrocket, easily into the $30/share to $40/share range. But, a year into Ryzen and AMD has not yet shown this ability. AMD's stock is mostly riding on hopes of getting into that market.

As such, it should be treated as a stock with huge potential, but also huge risks. AMD's fate is not in their hands, it is in the pricing strategy of Intel. Because of that risk, I personally think only $9/share or lower would tempt me to buy AMD now. But, if AMD can actually show significant server progress and Intel shows no desire to compete, I'll raise that number significantly.
 
zinfamous

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,983
31,539
146
dullard said:
AMD has great products but terrible product pricing (terrible for a potential stock owner). Fundamentally, their whole existence is based on the concept that Intel won't lower prices. If Intel lowers prices, then there is almost no reason for anyone to buy AMD products. So, you have a risk there that AMD can easily be worth $0/share if Intel goes that way. AMD's other risk is that a big chunk of their sales are for digital coin mining, a fad that seems to be fading. If digital coin mining diminishes, then AMD is competing against Intel on price but also against used but recent model AMD parts on the secondary market. It would be hard for AMD to compete against its own products in that case.

On the flip side, Intel doesn't appear to want to lower prices and AMD's server chips can potentially make a big impact. If AMD can get a significant server share, then AMD stock could skyrocket, easily into the $30/share to $40/share range. But, a year into Ryzen and AMD has not yet shown this ability. AMD's stock is mostly riding on hopes of getting into that market.

As such, it should be treated as a stock with huge potential, but also huge risks. AMD's fate is not in their hands, it is in the pricing strategy of Intel. Because of that risk, I personally think only $9/share or lower would tempt me to buy AMD now. But, if AMD can actually show significant server progress and Intel shows no desire to compete, I'll raise that number significantly.
Click to expand...

A year into Ryzen doesn't reflect a year into Epyc sales, which I think are only expected to start showing this quarter. Epyc is expected to be represented in 2018 sales for AMD, which is why everyone is rather high on them now. I think the cryptocurrency issues are just claims made by the fly-by-night analysts that need to make daily articles to explain away what they were right or wrong about after the previous day's movements, then turn around and reverse their opinion, again and again.

But, it's definitely a huge risk stock, even though I think it is pretty clearly undervalued at this point. With realistically 0% of the server market now, Epyc doesn't have to move them all that much to see real value.
 
D

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,693
566
136
I've changed my direction of thought. I'm hoping my MU options get exercised.

I need to start accumulating MU for the long term. I spread them over two different accounts to absorb the margin more easily.
 
paperfist

paperfist

Diamond Member
Nov 30, 2000
6,539
287
126
www.the-teh.com
What about Tesla?

It's down with news of fatal crash. On another hand I was reading an article that said they were on their way to bankruptcy.
 
zinfamous

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,983
31,539
146
paperfist said:
What about Tesla?

It's down with news of fatal crash. On another hand I was reading an article that said they were on their way to bankruptcy.
Click to expand...

technically, Tesla has been heading towards bankruptcy since near-about their inception. Competing in the auto industry as a newcomer is one of the most difficult sectors to succeed in. Relative lack of inventory, as with Tesla, certainly makes things worse.

But, they have been long held aloft by the hopes and dreams of unicorn fart-addicted investors. Which, isn't nothing. I kind of like that people have this much confidence in them and that is all that keeps them going, but there really are no traditional fundamentals that support their valuation or stock price.
 
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KB

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,406
389
126
paperfist said:
What about Tesla?

It's down with news of fatal crash. On another hand I was reading an article that said they were on their way to bankruptcy.
Click to expand...

As long as they keep getting loans and selling bonds they can stay afloat. One interesting development that may be bigger than the crash is their credit rating was downgraded. This means more scrutiny, higher interest rates and investors may finally be willing to cut their loses.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/27/moo...edit-rating-on-model-3-production-delays.html
 
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