Official 2018 Stock Market Thread

jpiniero · Mar 25, 2018

dasherHampton said:
So you're saying you need a major depression to have confidence in the market again? I don't think that's going to happen. At least I hope it isn't.

It doesn't have to be a depression. Think of it more as a regression to the mean.... although convincing people of that is going to be tough considering so many think the stock market = the economy.

brianmanahan · Mar 25, 2018

dasherHampton said:
So you're saying you need a major depression to have confidence in the market again? I don't think that's going to happen. At least I hope it isn't.

i think it's more likely that instead of a major depression, market returns will just be nearly flat for the next 10 years. maybe %3-5 returns.

JEDI · Mar 25, 2018

brianmanahan said:
probably not that low. but the current shiller PE is 31 and a much more historically normal level is 20. so i could see the dow going back down to 23500 * 20/31, or about 15000. i would feel much better about investing in the US market at that point.

what was the p/e ratio in 2009 after the real estate crash?

brianmanahan · Mar 25, 2018

JEDI said:
what was the p/e ratio in 2009 after the real estate crash?

well that was sort of a crazy case because earnings dropped like crazy. so the instantaneous PE was 110.37 on march 1st 2009.

but i was referring to the shiller PE aka PE10, weighted over the past 10 years of earnings, which was 13.32 on march 1st 2009.

FelixDeCat · Mar 25, 2018

Yet another FB scandal ...the keeping of users Android contacts, phone call length and persons called and text messages going back years.

When will this end? How many people still use FB?

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/66287057-17e0-3aad-abaf-62f5baf95ebe/facebook-questioned-about.html

jpiniero · Mar 26, 2018

Violating people's privacy is the whole point of Facebook. Google, too.

DietDrThunder · Mar 26, 2018

FelixDeCat said:
Yet another FB scandal ...the keeping of users Android contacts, phone call length and persons called and text messages going back years.

When will this end? How many people still use FB?

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/66287057-17e0-3aad-abaf-62f5baf95ebe/facebook-questioned-about.html

You could almost see this coming from the very beginning. If you ever read anything about Mark Zuckerberg and how he started facebook, you'd see how unethical of a person he is. I almost bought into facebook early, but after reading about him, there wasn't any freakin' way.

DietDrThunder · Mar 26, 2018

Wow! Just gained back more than I had lost on Friday. The roller coaster ride continues.

JEDI · Mar 26, 2018

Cepak said:
Wow! Just gained back more than I had lost on Friday.

noooooooooooooooooo

/Vader

fleshconsumed · Mar 26, 2018

FelixDeCat said:
Yet another FB scandal ...the keeping of users Android contacts, phone call length and persons called and text messages going back years.

When will this end? How many people still use FB?

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/66287057-17e0-3aad-abaf-62f5baf95ebe/facebook-questioned-about.html

Meh, all new android phones now have built-in app permissions. Just disable everything for FB, problem solved.

FelixDeCat · Mar 26, 2018

fleshconsumed said:
Meh, all new android phones now have built-in app permissions. Just disable everything for FB, problem solved.

The problem is most FB users will think denying permissions will disable features.

dasherHampton · Mar 26, 2018

I think I'm just going to double down on MU puts this week.

I talked to some friends of mine who are as high on MU as I am and I feel like it's a good play.

dasherHampton · Mar 26, 2018

Am I the only one here having trouble deciding on a bottom for FB?

dasherHampton · Mar 26, 2018

Just completed my first Dropbox trade.

Very volatile. Good for day trading as of now.

FelixDeCat · Mar 26, 2018

dasherHampton said:
I think I'm just going to double down on MU puts this week.

I talked to some friends of mine who are as high on MU as I am and I feel like it's a good play.

I am short MU $56×55 calls expiring Thurs for .30 premium per contract.

dasherHampton · Mar 26, 2018

I added Thursday 53.5 puts to my Thursday 52.5 puts.

FIVR · Mar 26, 2018

Holy crap that Susquehanna downgrade to AMD today - I've never seen more blatant share price manipulation in my life!

Downgrades from $12.50 to $7.50 price target on the basis that Etherium Mining ASICs will reduce AMD's revenue's by 20%. Then they downgrade nvidia from $235 to $210 for the exact same reasons.

Where the hell is the SEC?

DietDrThunder · Mar 26, 2018

FIVR said:
Holy crap that Susquehanna downgrade to AMD today - I've never seen more blatant share price manipulation in my life!

Downgrades from $12.50 to $7.50 price target on the basis that Etherium Mining ASICs will reduce AMD's revenue's by 20%. Then they downgrade nvidia from $235 to $210 for the exact same reasons.

Where the hell is the SEC?

AMD down $0.19 to 10.44 today and NVidia up $11.51 to $244.48

DietDrThunder · Mar 27, 2018

I just realized that I'm a major market swing junkie. My adrenaline no longer starts pumping for plus or minus $2,500 changes in value to my portfolio. WHAT IS WRONG WITH ME?

dasherHampton · Mar 27, 2018

Anybody see anything interesting out there?

At this point I'm set on my options expiring on Thursday without being exercised. I'd be good with that.

I put TEGP on my watchlist. Maybe there's something there.

dullard · Mar 27, 2018

FIVR said:
Holy crap that Susquehanna downgrade to AMD today - I've never seen more blatant share price manipulation in my life!

Downgrades from $12.50 to $7.50 price target on the basis that Etherium Mining ASICs will reduce AMD's revenue's by 20%. Then they downgrade nvidia from $235 to $210 for the exact same reasons.

Where the hell is the SEC?

That is how analysts work. Didn't you price the risk analyst opinions into your own valuations (to the upside and downside)? One analyst has far more sway in a stock price than many people realize. And is there anything you have against their analysis? I've been saying the same thing for months: https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/amd-crushes-q4-earnings-estimates.2535719/#post-39284143

On the plus side, AMD is finally getting closer to a point where it is worth buying. Needs to drop ~$1/share more though.

As for our own bet, you have until May 2 for AMD to reach $20/share and Intel to reach under $40/share. https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/official-2017-stock-market-thread.2495701/page-20#post-39150753

dasherHampton · Mar 27, 2018

Finally might have hit something.

Bought some TEGP at around 18.88, now its over 19.

dasherHampton · Mar 27, 2018

Cepak said:
I just realized that I'm a major market swing junkie. My adrenaline no longer starts pumping for plus or minus $2,500 changes in value to my portfolio. WHAT IS WRONG WITH ME?

I was down big most of the day but I just went positive.

I'm back, baby!

JEDI · Mar 27, 2018

Technicals say the Bear will rise with a roar?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...arket-heres-how-long-it-could-last-2018-03-27

Dow -5000 by end of year.

back to 2016 levels

AznAnarchy99 · Mar 27, 2018

Didn't pay attention to the last few hours. What's up with the drops across the board?

***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

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Official 2018 Stock Market Thread