***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

[dasherHampton]

The more I think about it the more the MU pump and dump bothers me.

This seems to have been an undertaking that went far beyond the usual "pour money into a stock and sell when it hits your price target" type of scheme. I can't prove this but it certainly appears that supposedly legitimate media outlets could have been involved all along. The media has been pumping the MU earnings call for weeks.

Some players made HUGE money on this, and I'm sure many of them have already bought back in at the dumped price.

 

[DietDrThunder]

The more I think about it the more the MU pump and dump bothers me.

This seems to have been an undertaking that went far beyond the usual "pour money into a stock and sell when it hits your price target" type of scheme. I can't prove this but it certainly appears that supposedly legitimate media outlets could have been involved all along. The media has been pumping the MU earnings call for weeks.

Some players made HUGE money on this, and I'm sure many of them have already bought back in at the dumped price.

It doesn’t look like that big of a dump to me. Maybe I was wrongly expecting a larger drop.

 

[dasherHampton]

I'm just ranting.

It bothers me that the earnings call didn't matter one bit.

 

[FIVR]

I'm just ranting.

It bothers me that the earnings call didn't matter one bit.

Look at the 6 month chart. See where on Nov 24th it peaked at ~50 and then over the next 2 weeks sold off to $40? Now look at the last peak ($61). Multiply that by .8 (taking off 20%) and you get $48.8


So technicals are supporting a selloff to 49. Add in the fact that last earnings were a much larger beat and had much better guidance, and you get my price target of $45. I think this time it will sell off more than 20% because the earnings beat was disappointing relative to analyst expectations.

 

[dasherHampton]

Yes, I get that part of it. Stocks go up and down. My beef is that this pump was pretty unethical.

I'm closing up for the week. Sold the last of my NBR and RIG. Just waiting for APA to be taken out.

 

[AznAnarchy99]

I'm in for another 10 shares of TCEHY at $53 *Crosses Fingers*

 

[dasherHampton]

lol APA ends up at 37.01

flush

 

[AznAnarchy99]

LoL everything went to trash at the end of the day. TCEHY still going down and all of my ATVI and AMZN gains are wiped.

I think imma just sit back and let Trump ruin things a bit more before I start buying again.

 

[JEDI]

I'm still hesitant. Too much like a falling knife. The S&P support last month was in the 2500's. There is no reason that it will necessarily go that low again, but it could just as easily go lower.

I never try to time the exact bottoms. I don't mind missing it by a percent here or there. Instead, I want to see if it stabilizes a bit before I buy. It was nice to get rid of the fraidy cats and bottom feeders. That makes the next bounce a more solid support.

Historically, volume spikes on the first bottom (happened early Feb 2018) which makes the first bottom sharp. Then historically the second bottom tends to be much more gradual. If this happens again, we'll have lots of time to decide if the second bottom has been reached. But history is never a perfect predictor.

Dow -400 today.
and the support level has been breached.

now to wait for the bounce to determine new bottom then buy when it goes back to that bottom?

 

[dullard]

Dow -400 today.
and the support level has been breached.

now to wait for the bounce to determine new bottom then buy when it goes back to that bottom?

Yes, at least I will wait. I don't have the guts to make a big move when the market is in a huge downfall. The market ended just going down and down. I'll feel far more comfortable buying on Tuesday/Wednesday if and only if Monday is stable. But if you want to get in, at least you will be getting in on the lowest day of the year so far.

 

[ImpulsE69]

I'm just ranting.

It bothers me that the earnings call didn't matter one bit.

I'm done playing earnings. I've been hosed EVERY time I've played them. Especially with MU and MSFT. It doesn't matter if the ER was great and forward statements were great, every single time they just dove because of some other external BS. It's more of a gamble than just playing technicals.

 

[dullard]

I'm done playing earnings. I've been hosed EVERY time I've played them. Especially with MU and MSFT. It doesn't matter if the ER was great and forward statements were great, every single time they just dove because of some other external BS. It's more of a gamble than just playing technicals.

I've never quite understood the earnings game. If a company is open and transparent, then they issue spot-on guidance and the stock price moves appropriately before the earnings day. If a company is closed and secretive, then all it takes is one wink to an insider and they make the money, not you. Or even if there is no insider trading, then what makes you think that you know information about the earnings that the other's don't? If done right you can make money on earnings, but I suspect those who do really well are not playing the game with the same rules that you and I play with.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Welp, I still have my 200 MU shares. Bought back the $60 calls for a few pennies (from a $2 short). I got bold and did a $53x$54 put spread and made and extra $200. Had to cover to make sure I did not get assigned since the puts expired today.

 

[Ns1]

So uh I take it it's too late to rebalance my 401k now.

If it's not too late, is anything safe from the impending doom?

 

[jpiniero]

So uh I take it it's too late to rebalance my 401k now.

If it's not too late, is anything safe from the impending doom?

That's the best part of this - everything is in a bubble. Be interesting to see if the Fed actually increases the rate high enough to trigger the stock market correction.

 

[KB]

Luckily this big drop is right before the big mutual fund dividend payouts, meaning more DRIP shares bought.

Trump thinks he is some shrewd negotiator and going to stick it to China, but I don't think he can win in international dealings.

 

[DietDrThunder]

I need this correction to go even further.

 

[jpiniero]

I need this correction to go even further.

That's the fun part - this isn't even correction territory yet. After all, it was about at these levels on Feb 8th.

 

[dasherHampton]

Worldwide economic fundamentals are fine.

In the end thats what really matters.

 

[brianmanahan]

Worldwide economic fundamentals are fine.

fundamentals may be fine but P/E ratio is still super high

 

[FelixDeCat]

fundamentals may be fine but P/E ratio is still super high

Can you imagine a worldwide trade war? If Trump manages to show benefit from attacking China and Canada, what other countries will launch their own trade sanctions to see if they can gain from it?

Tit-for-tat, then before you know it Trade World War starts.

 

[brianmanahan]

Can you imagine a worldwide trade war? If Trump manages to show benefit from attacking China and Canada, what other countries will launch their own trade sanctions to see if they can gain from it?

Tit-for-tat, then before you know it Trade World War starts.

we'll call it WORLD WAR T

 

[dasherHampton]

fundamentals may be fine but P/E ratio is still super high

That may be true to a certain degree, especially in some cases, but the market is being fundamentally repriced almost yearly.

Do you really think the Dow is going back to 8000, or 10,000 or 12,000?

 

[brianmanahan]

Do you really think the Dow is going back to 8000, or 10,000 or 12,000?

probably not that low. but the current shiller PE is 31 and a much more historically normal level is 20. so i could see the dow going back down to 23500 * 20/31, or about 15000. i would feel much better about investing in the US market at that point.

 

[dasherHampton]

So you're saying you need a major depression to have confidence in the market again? I don't think that's going to happen. At least I hope it isn't.

The Dow is a different place than it was even 10 years ago.