***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

[FIVR]

Just bought a bunch of January 2020 INTC 35$ Puts. I am hedging my account because usually AMD and INTC move together. In the future when AMD is down my puts will be up.



I expect this trade to lose money because I expect the bull market to continue but if it doesn't at least I have a hedging position

 

[dullard]

I expect this trade to lose money because I expect the bull market to continue but if it doesn't at least I have a hedging position

Hedging for the sake of hedging is counterproductive.

Consider the best hedge: you buy a stock and short the stock at the same time. You are perfectly hedged. Any fall/increase in price will be counteracted. But, ultimately with that perfect hedge, you make a grand total of $0 profit and still have the cost of both stock trades (both the cost of making the trade and the cost of ending the trade). So, a perfect hedge is a money loser. That is, unless you have something other than stock prices to consider.

You need a specific plan as to why you want to hedge. Suppose you want to lock in a price but you don't want to have short-term capital gains. You can hedge a loss and then sell it when the 1-year period is up. Or something similar.

Simply hedging to hedge is a waste.

 

[KB]

Futures are up this morning and just waiting for the bottom to drop out.

Buy the DIP (under 200 DMA) and sell the RIP (over 50 DMA) has been a money making strategy the last two months. Sadly I don't have time to do it and I think it ends during earnings season. To know for sure, you would have to have access to Trumps tweets in advance.

 

[dasherHampton]

When MU was threatening 50 I was very tempted to sell 4000 shares but I decided against it.

I don't known what to say abut BLUE. It's like a gift from God.

 

[dasherHampton]

I did end up selling some out of the money calls to help pay the margin interest.

 

[dasherHampton]

Late profit taking is becoming par for the course, isn't it.

No one knows what's going to happen after hours to tank stocks and no one wants to be left holding the bag.

 

[DietDrThunder]

Late profit taking is becoming par for the course, isn't it.

No one knows what's going to happen after hours to tank stocks and no one wants to be left holding the bag.

No kidding. I was up +$18K and it looks like I'll maybe finish up +$7K.

 

[FelixDeCat]

MU back to $47 as predicted.

 

[FIVR]

Hedging for the sake of hedging is counterproductive.

Consider the best hedge: you buy a stock and short the stock at the same time. You are perfectly hedged. Any fall/increase in price will be counteracted. But, ultimately with that perfect hedge, you make a grand total of $0 profit and still have the cost of both stock trades (both the cost of making the trade and the cost of ending the trade). So, a perfect hedge is a money loser. That is, unless you have something other than stock prices to consider.

You need a specific plan as to why you want to hedge. Suppose you want to lock in a price but you don't want to have short-term capital gains. You can hedge a loss and then sell it when the 1-year period is up. Or something similar.

Simply hedging to hedge is a waste.

If you don't know why I'm hedging right now you are clearly totally ignorant of market conditions or historical trends.


Also intel probably will trade back to 35 when the 10nm fiasco finally is revealed for what it is. These puts might make money even if the market trades sideways.


The position is up 5% already after the afternoon selloff.

 

[FIVR]

MU back to $47 as predicted.

It will go lower. Watch.

 

[FelixDeCat]

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - U.S stock futures rallied, Asian shares bounced and the safe haven yen fell on Tuesday as Chinese President Xi Jinping promised to lower import tariffs on products including cars this year, helping soothe investor jitters over an escalating U.S.-China trade row.

Xi, speaking at the Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan province, said that China will take measures to sharply widen market access for foreign investors, raise the foreign ownership limit in the automobile sector and protect intellectual property of foreign firms.

Xi's comments prompted a rapid and largely positive reaction in financial markets, which have been rattled over the past week on fears the tit-for-tat U.S.-China tariffs will explode into a full-blow trade war.

So much volatility in the market .... will probably be a nice day tomorrow but who knows what the market holds a few days later. Short sellers have been goading the administration to say provocative things to cause sell offs. I wish the administration would learn the phrase "no comment." Then there might be a meaningful recovery.

Until then - watch out.

 

[DietDrThunder]

So do any of you guys do pre-market trading? If so, how is it working out for you?

 

[dullard]

If you don't know why I'm hedging right now you are clearly totally ignorant of market conditions or historical trends.

In other words, you have no clue what you are doing. If you are worried about market conditions and historical trends, hedging is NOT the answer. Properly adjusting your portfolio for the risk is the proper answer.

Hedging is for when you cannot properly adjust your portfolio. Maybe you are locked into a long term contract. Maybe you are limited due to SEC rules. Maybe you want to reduce overall tax rates. Etc. Hedge for a purpose. Hedging to hedge is misunderstanding what hedging does. I'll repeat it: hedging is to keep a value stable (such as cost of raw materials), as an investor you want asset values to increase.

Also intel probably will trade back to 35 when the 10nm fiasco finally is revealed for what it is. These puts might make money even if the market trades sideways.

10 nm is already well known and priced in. You've done nothing but be completely backwards on your Intel posts here.

The position is up 5% already after the afternoon selloff.

And what will it be at market open?

 

[DietDrThunder]

It looks like another day like yesterday. Market rising, then a sell off at the end of the day.

I don't know why, but I don't feel pleased with my portfolio performance this year. I went back and looked this morning at my 1st quarter results from 2017 vs. 2018. 2017's 1st quarter results, I was up 7.79%. 2018 1st quarter results, I am up 8.72%. I guess I can chalk it up to the unease of these wild market fluctuations.

 

[dasherHampton]

Feels good, man.

 

[dasherHampton]

EPD finally finding some upwards traction. I'm hoping it'll continue to climb towards the dividend payout. In this market who knows?

If it hits 27 pre-dividend I might sell the whole lot.

 

[FIVR]

In other words, you have no clue what you are doing. If you are worried about market conditions and historical trends, hedging is NOT the answer. Properly adjusting your portfolio for the risk is the proper answer.

Hedging is for when you cannot properly adjust your portfolio. Maybe you are locked into a long term contract. Maybe you are limited due to SEC rules. Maybe you want to reduce overall tax rates. Etc. Hedge for a purpose. Hedging to hedge is misunderstanding what hedging does. I'll repeat it: hedging is to keep a value stable (such as cost of raw materials), as an investor you want asset values to increase.

10 nm is already well known and priced in. You've done nothing but be completely backwards on your Intel posts here.

And what will it be at market open?

Lol you don't even know why people hedge and you are trying to tell me you know what your doing?


Go find somebody else to annoy dullard I'm busy making money. "10nm is priced in" lmfao

 

[dasherHampton]

Sigh. I wish I would have been up on PAY.

That could have been a nice payday.

 

[woodman1999]

so what are peoples guess on the final close? DJIA +20bps? I mean after all, it's after lunch... time to sell!

 

[dasherHampton]

Maybe the market will finally break that ugly trend.

I don't really have any sells right now. I have to stand pat.

My GE still has a way to go. lol

I have 10,000 shares of RIG that went up nicely today but I sold calls at 11. Have to wait it out.

 

[FIVR]

MU finding support? Maybe it won't retrace to 45....


I'm still quite suspicious of these flash rallies and until we make new highs I am worried for the future of the bull market.

 

[DietDrThunder]

MU finding support? Maybe it won't retrace to 45....


I'm still quite suspicious of these flash rallies and until we make new highs I am worried for the future of the bull market.

Yeah, I was looking at buying MU if it fell to 45 and AMD fell to 9 or below. It is still a possibility for AMD this week.

 

[dullard]

Lol you don't even know why people hedge and you are trying to tell me you know what your doing?

Go find somebody else to annoy dullard I'm busy making money. "10nm is priced in" lmfao

I described why people hedge. You don't seem to be willing to read it. It is your money though. And by what you have posted, you've been losing quite a lot of it. I'm just here to try to dissuade people from following your extremely misguided and terrible advice.

 

[FIVR]

Anybody else in for some weekly FB puts? I'm definitely short lizard people being questioned by congress.


Zuckerberg looks absolutely terrified lmao

 

[FIVR]

I described why people hedge. You don't seem to be willing to read it. It is your money though. And by what you have posted, you've been losing quite a lot of it. I'm just here to try to dissuade people from following your extremely misguided and terrible advice.

Dude, you just claimed 10nm is "priced in" to INTC when their chart is at all time highs and has vastly outperformed its own sector and the index in the last several months (the same time when info on 10nm delays is slowly coming to realization as 10nm fails to show in products month after month). So how exactly is 10nm failure being priced into the stock? Are people buying intel even more because they now realize intel well fail to deliver on its most important business (foundry)? How does that make sense? How is that "pricing in" 10nm?


By your logic, 10nm failure is worth 10$/share gains on INTC hahaha