***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

[dullard]

Dude, if you made as much money as I do doing this you'd probably be overconfident too. Obviously you mostly lose money and are very concerned about it.

That is just a laughable position. I'm doing quite well financially, especially in stocks. I do well BECAUSE I am concerned about making the right decisions not in spite of it.

Making money when the market goes up is easy. Lets see how you do when the market finally turns around.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The 52 week high for the largest 100 tech stocks QQQ was $175. We are now 13% lower. A bear market is defined as 20% off with stagnant markets. I'm pretty sure we get there.

1st quarter earnings announcements starting mid April will now have to figure in the potential impact of tariffs. Buyer beware.

Longer term this will be a good time to average in for a rebound ... one day.

 

[FelixDeCat]

China responds with a potential tariffs list of their own.

 

[FIVR]

I don't think we will break key resistance but we'll see. To me, this just seems like more threats and bloviating by Trump with a pretty weak response from China.


No tariffs have been imposed and they have 6 weeks to work it out before anything goes into effect. My guess is that in the end Trump does nothing (as usual) and the market rallies eventually.

 

[DietDrThunder]

Damn it! What happened to the market drop? Why has it gone back up? I go away for 2 hours and the market has already rebounded.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Damn it! What happened to the market drop? Why has it gone back up? I go away for 2 hours and the market has already rebounded.

SELL! lol

 

[woodman1999]

I'll take it. My biggest performer last year has really reverted this year and has wiped out almost all of it's gains. Generally a good stock, but it purchased a cancer drug last year or so that hasn't panned out in trials. However, today it's climbing back just a little.

 

[FIVR]

Anybody else get in on these AMD 2020 calls while they were <9.5?


$12 calls up 7% My position is only up 4% tho. Lame


AAPL doing it big with their music service. 40 million subscribers.... I see $200 on the horizon for AAPL

 

[DietDrThunder]

Anybody else get in on these AMD 2020 calls while they were <9.5?


$12 calls up 7% My position is only up 4% tho. Lame


AAPL doing it big with their music service. 40 million subscribers.... I see $200 on the horizon for AAPL

Good thing I have 469.44 shares at a cost basis of $31.45.

 

[woodman1999]

Good thing I have 469.44 shares at a cost basis of $31.45.

$49.14 here. SWEET SWEET PROFIT!

 

[FIVR]

AMD upgraded to buy with $13 price target by Stifel. It's already over $10 after hours.


https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2708586&headline=AMD

 

[Ns1]

AMD upgraded to buy with $13 price target by Stifel. It's already over $10 after hours.


https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2708586&headline=AMD

oh praise jesus.

 

[FIVR]

oh praise jesus.

Lord Su Bae giveth and Lord Su Bae taketh away, but only the faithful and long shall profit.

 

[FelixDeCat]

MU downgraded to sell by UBS.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Also, my take was todays buying was mostly technical. We are going down. Before this year is over, all major indexes will have a loss of over 25% for 2018.

 

[jpiniero]

Also, my take was todays buying was mostly technical. We are going down. Before this year is over, all major indexes will have a loss of over 25% for 2018.

My question would be would the Fed raise rates in an down year for the stock market.

 

[dasherHampton]

MU will be fine. I doubled down and sold some 49 puts for over $2000. Wherever it goes it will be a stable weekly income stream. I'm still pretty confident in the stock.

I'm much more concerned about EPD. I own a bunch at 26.5 and the narrative on MLPs is pretty negative at the moment. I should have sold when it was over 29 but I was sure to would get into the 30s. The good thing is that EPD pays you while you wait. I'm down a little over 50 grand but I almost make that yearly in dividend payouts.

Today was a pretty great day btw. I hope you guys did well.

 

[DietDrThunder]

Also, my take was todays buying was mostly technical. We are going down. Before this year is over, all major indexes will have a loss of over 25% for 2018.

I’ll keep this for future reference.

 

[FIVR]

MU downgraded to sell by UBS.

MU short is a good play. I think it still trades down to 45 before it rallies again.

 

[FIVR]

Also, my take was todays buying was mostly technical. We are going down. Before this year is over, all major indexes will have a loss of over 25% for 2018.

We could still make new highs in the next 2 weeks. Not much time left though.


I think we retrace in the morning slightly but close green on more good economic news. I gave a forecast on monday morning that we would rally past 2630ish and here we are at 2645.

 

[FIVR]

Good thing I have 469.44 shares at a cost basis of $31.45.

I hold a bunch of 2020 Leap calls on AAPL. I never had a chance to buy it that low. At one point I had a few hundred shares at ~$90 but it was so much cheaper to move into a few leap calls than to hold all that equity. Your cost basis is so low... that's like what.... 2011 prices?


I really can't think of a safer stock to be in than AAPL. The company is a money making machine the likes of which this planet has never seen. Other stocks can be more entertaining and lucrative but in terms of reliability + long term returns nothing beats AAPL.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I’ll keep this for future reference.

That is not to say some individual stocks cannot outperform or be good for a trade. And yes, I could be wrong. Trump built the market on tax cuts to all time highs and now he is reconfiguring our economy that hopefully benefits us in the long term but will include short term pain along the way. Most presidents would not dare do what he is doing. Hopefully it works out in the long term ..... America diversifying away from China.

 

[FelixDeCat]

My question would be would the Fed raise rates in an down year for the stock market.

There will be at least one more hike this year, even though the market predicts two to three quarter point moves. The economy is still supposedly overheated as far as jobs, housing and equity prices are concerned, although the latter is giving back some so that might keep the fed at bay for more than one more hike.

Might.

 

[DietDrThunder]

I hold a bunch of 2020 Leap calls on AAPL. I never had a chance to buy it that low. At one point I had a few hundred shares at ~$90 but it was so much cheaper to move into a few leap calls than to hold all that equity. Your cost basis is so low... that's like what.... 2011 prices?

2008. I like finding companies and keeping them for the long haul (my average holding is almost 12 years old). I re-evaluate them quite often, pairing off under performers and depending on the price, increase shares in existing, but I'm always looking for good stocks at a bargain.

Besides AAPL, NFLX is my other out performer. 1,400 shares with a cost basis of $3.26 (originally bought in 2007).

 

[dasherHampton]

I'd be pretty happy if MU stays right where it is until close tomorrow but that's probably a pipe dream. One of my options will probably be exercised.

Neither is bad. If it goes over 54 I'll get bought out for an $8000 profit ($11000 if you count options) and if it drops below 49 I'll get 4000 mores shares relatively cheaply (imo at least). That'll make more in the long run I think.