***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

^Apparently, 1.5 billion people, 1.0 billion solid daily or something...

How many of them are bots, alternate accounts? I had two, then I closed them.

Yeah, it's hard to imagine but about 1B people per day check facespace. I have to admit, I got yet another account recently to keep up with some local events. I'd had several other accounts in the past that have long since gone dormant and I suspect that's what will happen to this one too. Although IDK. Right now it's proving pretty useful.

Thanks for the calendar by the way. Didn't realize the Nov. FOMC meeting was before the erection, I mean election.

The only thing that keeps zuckerbook going is Instagram. Two things people ask when they meet online - in this order -

"Whats your insta?"

and if they are really interested its

"Whats your snapchat?"

and if they are plain psycho, under 15 (or both) its

"Whats your music.ly?"

Admittedly I did not know what musical.ly was until I heard about ricegum's rants on youtube (These Kids must be Stopped) <NSFW

Too many permissive parents these days.

 

[Imp]

Dafuq is music.ly? I'm not that old.............. Right?


In other news, Bank of Japan didn't stimulate or cut rate, their market expected them to, apparently, and now it's tanked.

U.S. GDP announcement is apparently Thursday or later today. Interdasting.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Dafuq is music.ly? I'm not that old.............. Right?


In other news, Bank of Japan didn't stimulate or cut rate, their market expected them to, apparently, and now it's tanked.

U.S. GDP announcement is apparently Thursday or later today. Interdasting.

musical.ly is apparently a place to make lip synced music videos. It has made some young people so famous with their crappy videos, that the are now even holding conventions to accommodate fans.. I don't know what this says about modern America. Now everyone can be a Justin Beiber.

And don't even ask me to tell you how musical.ly makes money. It just the hottest app for 15 mins of fame at the moment.

 

[Imp]

Isn't that dubsmash?

Edit: NIKKEI closed at 16666!!! it's a sign, you're all going to hell! Repent!

 

[sm625]

It doesnt matter if the true number of facebook users is actually only 600 million. It doesnt matter that few even see the ads. Because facebook is all about selling their compendium of information on you. Every thing you ever said on there is bagged, tagged, categorized, collated, and shipped to the highest bidder... or any bidder.

 

[JEDI]

It doesnt matter if the true number of facebook users is actually only 600 million. It doesnt matter that few even see the ads. Because facebook is all about selling their compendium of information on you. Every thing you ever said on there is bagged, tagged, categorized, collated, and shipped to the highest bidder... or any bidder.

ahh.. fake names + addr FTW!

I'm Jedi ATOT. friend me

 

[Charmonium]

ahh.. fake names + addr FTW!

I'm Jedi ATOT. friend me

Pretty much. Just make sure no one tags a picture of you with your real name. and if you're going to use a pic of yourself, make it a side or oblique shot. It makes it harder for facial rec. software to peg you. Although that will probably change soon.

 

[Capt Caveman]

I loaded up on FB, half is sold through covered calls, kept the other 1/2. Sweet day

I bought in at IPO and more when it dropped. Haven't sold any of it. Happy camper here!

 

[us3rnotfound]

I bought in at IPO and more when it dropped. Haven't sold any of it. Happy camper here!

This guy Fucks.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

 

[holden j caufield]

I bought in at IPO and more when it dropped. Haven't sold any of it. Happy camper here!

Did you just buy and hold your apple shares also? Probably sped up retirement by 10 years.

 

[holden j caufield]

Anyone see NUGT and USLV today? Why the sudden move? I bought at $81 earlier in the week and sold at 86 and was pretty happy. Now I'm just sad.

 

[Imp]

U.S. of A. 2016 Q1 GDP: +0.50%

There's a video:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/28/us-advance-q1-2016-gdp.html

No one seems to be bragging about this and I found it buried in a list of headlines. That's an annual rate, mind you, so it translates to +0.125% for the quarter. Close enough to zero that in a quarter or two, it might turn negative after being "adjusted."

But hey, stocks are still close to record highs.

 

[dullard]

U.S. of A. 2016 Q1 GDP: +0.50%
But hey, stocks are still close to record highs.

If GDP is at its record high and growing (albeit slowly) why shouldn't stocks also be close to record highs?

 

[Imp]

If GDP is at its record high and growing (albeit slowly) why shouldn't stocks also be close to record highs?

If GDP and stocks are close to record highs, why is the Fed rate still at 0.25% to 0.50%, averaging ~0.38%?

Why did a planned Fed hike from 0.0% to 0.25% cause a >10% stock correction in September 2015?

Why did an actual Fed hike to 0.25% to 0.50% hike cause a >10% stock correction in January 2016?

Why is the world ~7 years into emergency interest rates? Why are the EU and Japan running negative rates?

Why are S&P 500 company earnings falling?

Why is the Shiller P/E or CAPE at 26 when the only other times in the past century that it was >25 were: ~1929, ~2000, and ~2007?

 

[Kwatt]

If GDP and stocks are close to record highs, why is the Fed rate still at 0.25% to 0.50%, averaging ~0.38%?

Why did a planned Fed hike from 0.0% to 0.25% cause a >10% stock correction in September 2015?

Why did an actual Fed hike to 0.25% to 0.50% hike cause a >10% stock correction in January 2016?

Why is the world ~7 years into emergency interest rates? Why are the EU and Japan running negative rates?

Why are S&P 500 company earnings falling?

Why is the Shiller P/E or CAPE at 26 when the only other times in the past century that it was >25 were: ~1929, ~2000, and ~2007?

Because it is different this time...


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[dullard]

If GDP and stocks are close to record highs, why is the Fed rate still at 0.25% to 0.50%, averaging ~0.38%?

The Federal reserve doesn't care about GDP or stocks. They care about employment and inflation.

Why did a planned Fed hike from 0.0% to 0.25% cause a >10% stock correction in September 2015?

Why did an actual Fed hike to 0.25% to 0.50% hike cause a >10% stock correction in January 2016?

The stock market was in one of the longest positive streaks in history and was well overdue for a correction. Then a very minor thing happened and people panicked. Each time when they realized the sky wasn't falling the stock market quickly rebounded. It isn't like stocks are rational.

Why is the world ~7 years into emergency interest rates? Why are the EU and Japan running negative rates?

The World economy is not in good shape. We are talking about US stocks. There is a fundamental and important difference. Plus, the economists around the world are still stuck in the idea that they can force inflation through low interest rates. They can in certain circumstances (i.e. when people borrow money at low interest rates and companies don't). But it doesn't work in the current situation (where people can't easily borrow money but companies can). All they end up doing is stimulating the part of the economy that doesn't need stimulation.

Why are S&P 500 company earnings falling?

S&P earnings per share are still near record highs. A slight dip doesn't change that fact.

Why is the Shiller P/E or CAPE at 26 when the only other times in the past century that it was >25 were: ~1929, ~2000, and ~2007?

The stock market is in a near record streak. The price increases are far outpacing the earnings increases. The S&P nearly doubled in 5 years, the economy didn't double.


What you are arguing is that stocks are overpriced. I am arguing that stocks should be high. Those aren't mutually exclusive concepts. In fact, I would argue that they are both true. Stocks are overpriced, but they also should be high. Stocks should be at or near their record value, but that record value should be ~1800 for the S&P, not ~2100.

 

[Imp]

What you are arguing is that stocks are overpriced. I am arguing that stocks should be high. Those aren't mutually exclusive concepts. In fact, I would argue that they are both true. Stocks are overpriced, but they also should be high. Stocks should be at or near their record value, but that record value should be ~1800 for the S&P, not ~2100.

Fair enough, but I'm a lot more pessimistic and cynical about the Fed.

This is also relevant -- yes, there are a number of counter-points in the commentary -- (watch for the video):

Going back to 1964, the S&P 500's market cap has been 57 percent of annual US GDP on average. If one excludes the tech bubble, that number falls to 53 percent. As of the end of March, however, the stocks contained within the S&P are collectively worth 99 percent of GDP, more than 70 percent above the average level.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/18/by-this-measure-the-sp-500-is-overvalued-by-72.html

 

[FelixDeCat]

Anyone see NUGT and USLV today? Why the sudden move? I bought at $81 earlier in the week and sold at 86 and was pretty happy. Now I'm just sad.

Yes, I pity myself missing NUGT last month at $45-$55, now $100!!!

Also USLV at $16.95-$17 just last week, now $18.79!!

$19 silver? Wow!

When - is of course the question.

Current PPO ~ $18, only $1 to go wholesale (not retail) price. Add $2-3 to get price you pay.

 

[sm625]

One of my trading models has a critical closing price target of 2058 (+/- 1) on the S&P 500. If that target hits I expect a rally next week to 2090. After that, it is time to head for the hills screaming.

 

[holden j caufield]

What's the worst fat finger mistake you've made? I've been trading NUGT, bought back in and then I had to pick up someone from the airport, check the traffic and checked the flight status time. Limit order to sell NUGT at 110, but put in 100. Course it instantly filled at the market price.

 

[ponyo]

Yes, I pity myself missing NUGT last month at $45-$55, now $100!!!

Also USLV at $16.95-$17 just last week, now $18.79!!



Current PPO ~ $18, only $1 to go wholesale (not retail) price. Add $2-3 to get price you pay.

Depends on the type of silver you buy. Generic rounds and bars you can buy for less than $1 over spot. Silver Eagles are about $3 over. But Chinese Pandas and Perth Lunars are about $10 over spot. Physical silver is whole different ballgame compared to paper.

 

[Kwatt]

S&P earnings per share are still near record highs. A slight dip doesn't change that fact.

Earnings per share is not the same as earnings.

About one-fifth of the S&P 500 reduced share count by 4% in each quarter of 2014 and the first quarter of 2015. I have no info since then. But, buybacks can make EPS go up as earnings fall. That way even if a company is tanking the BONUSES will continue.


Disclaimer: Not referring to any specific company.


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[FelixDeCat]

Depends on the type of silver you buy. Generic rounds and bars you can buy for less than $1 over spot. Silver Eagles are about $3 over. But Chinese Pandas and Perth Lunars are about $10 over spot. Physical silver is whole different ballgame compared to paper.

USLV up another buck to $19.50 at one point

Actual silver hit $18 today

I always buy Eagles because they are are easy to sell (when it goes back to $50)

I get $100 healthcare cash refund each May and will buy 5 more silver dollars +/- shipping.

 

[Charmonium]

Earnings per share is not the same as earnings.

About one-fifth of the S&P 500 reduced share count by 4% in each quarter of 2014 and the first quarter of 2015. I have no info since then. But, buybacks can make EPS go up as earnings fall. That way even if a company is tanking the BONUSES will continue.
.

So true. Just to add to that, where is the cheap money to do the buybacks coming from? Take a guess guys. Yup, the fed's QE programs.

Don't get me wrong. These were essential to help the economy recover. But a true recovery requires both a monetary and fiscal response. And because of the gridlock in congress, including the ongoing sequestration that went into effect a couple of years ago, fiscal response has been none existent.

So the fed has been doing what it can from the monetary side. But as we've seen, and continue to see in Japan, it's no where near enough.

 

[holden j caufield]

When someone mentioned NUGT a week ago it was 70-80? It's at 117.50 at this time, I've been in and out a few times but I really should have held. WTF on monday I bought at 80ish, I really wish I held it all the way instead of jumping in/out.