***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[Charmonium]

They are creating new debt on an account that does not exist.

In they keep going they will own every stock,bond and mortgage. And we will have to pay off the debt with our labours for letting them take it.

.

I take it you're one of those folks who think money is debt. It really isn't. The fed buys existing debt instruments. You can argue that new debt is created because the govt know that the fed will buy it, but that's only partly true and only some of the time.

 

[Imp]

In other news, Exxon's credit dropped from AAA to AA+. Too lazy to find a source right now.

Hey, but its stock and the markets are up, so who cares.


Edit:

Apple sales as an indicator for China's economy?

Watch for the video:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/26/apples-china-softness-comes-to-light-sales-decline-26-percent.html

But China saw the biggest share of declines: Greater China sales, once the tech giant's fastest growing market, fell to $12.49 billion in the second quarter, the company said, a 26 percent year-over-year decline.

I don't see China's love for status symbols fading. Their supply of money has, however, been hit very hard.

 

[FelixDeCat]

TWTR down a good amount after hours I figure $15.6 is a pretty good price for this?

lol no D:


Actually I don't know what a fair price is for that stock. But I sure would not buy this dip. Wait until the selling is over. There wont be much impetus to buy in the meantime.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I've had fun day trading puts on NFLX!!

Yesterday it was $95, then $93, today $91....if it breaks $90 look out below!!! There is no reason to buy right now because its certainly no value play and has a p/e ratio of 320.

It appears subscriber growth has peaked for now so its an easy target for shorts!

 

[FelixDeCat]

Also, Apple is getting smashed AH!!

GOOG also fell on scrutiny over Android.

This morning you could have bought a $700 weekly put on GOOG for $40 and sold them it at one point today for $500! And with APPL laying an egg, I suspect those $700 puts are going to very valuable tomorrow.

 

[Imp]

You mean "Alphabet" company...

Took a minute to figure out what the hell Alphabet was when they reported last week or something.

 

[FelixDeCat]

You mean "Alphabet" company...

Took a minute to figure out what the hell Alphabet was when they reported last week or something.

Its "forward" thinking like that turns a $700 stock into a $500 stock. :sneaky:

 

[Imp]

Interesting stuff in Australia... Their central bank rate is like 2%, so they have room to move.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday the consumer price index (CPI) contracted 0.2 per cent in the three months to the end of March...

And there's a video:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...irst-time-in-seven-years-20160427-gofuws.html

 

[KB]

Also, Apple is getting smashed AH!!

GOOG also fell on scrutiny over Android.

This morning you could have bought a $700 weekly put on GOOG for $40 and sold them it at one point today for $500! And with APPL laying an egg, I suspect those $700 puts are going to very valuable tomorrow.

Really hoping Apple falls into the 80s. That's where I am buying. I think things turn around for them when the new phones comes out. Not to mention they make a ton of money just in itunes purchases and have the desired millennials in their pocket.

 

[Charmonium]

Really hoping Apple falls into the 80s. That's where I am buying. I think things turn around for them when the new phones comes out. Not to mention they make a ton of money just in itunes purchases and have the desired millennials in their pocket.

I heard one analyst yesterday say something like, to maintain it's current price, Apple needs to keep both it's margins and sales numbers.

The problem right now seems to be the SE model cannibalizing sales for the more expensive phones. Apple's margins are higher than anyone else but if they move toward cheaper models, that eats into their margins.

In the long run, it's probably a smart move since you reach so many more people and still maintain the status of your higher end products. But it will definitely cut into margins.

 

[ponyo]

TWTR down a good amount after hours I figure $15.6 is a pretty good price for this?

I bought this morning at $15.

 

[holden j caufield]

I've heard plenty of people with slowed down iphones and ipads say they will never buy an apple product. The iphone was highly sought after in China as a fashion or status symbol. It is no longer that symbol coupled with their economic slowdown is going to kills sales in that region. Fads rise and fall really fast over there.

The iphone seems more like fashion accessory than other phone. Like all fashionable fads they eventual hit a snag and halt. I'm glad I got out of my apple stock last year when it was 120-130 range.

 

[Charmonium]

I bought this morning at $15.

Twitter has been trying to sell advertisers on the 500M people it says arenn't signed up for the service but who nevertheless, read tweets to keep up to date for certain purposes.

The problem though is that even if this is true, if the advertisers can't quantify the value added by these non-subscribers, they have no way of knowing what to pay twitter to advertise. Of course that's probably bullshit since they can still get a rough idea of how many people they're reaching through twitter.

On the subscriber front, they don't seem to be growing their base as fast as they need to.

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out. Personally, I'd wait a few days and see what the market thinks before buying, but that's me.

 

[holden j caufield]

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out. Personally, I'd wait a few days and see what the market thinks before buying, but that's me.

Just my newbish opinion but usually when it's bad news things overshoot to the low side. If I wait I miss a good probably at least 10% bargains, course there''s always the thought you don't catch a falling knife but I'll take that chance on some stocks.

 

[ponyo]

Twitter has been trying to sell advertisers on the 500M people it says arenn't signed up for the service but who nevertheless, read tweets to keep up to date for certain purposes.

The problem though is that even if this is true, if the advertisers can't quantify the value added by these non-subscribers, they have no way of knowing what to pay twitter to advertise. Of course that's probably bullshit since they can still get a rough idea of how many people they're reaching through twitter.

On the subscriber front, they don't seem to be growing their base as fast as they need to.

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out. Personally, I'd wait a few days and see what the market thinks before buying, but that's me.

I agree with you. Normally, I like to wait couple days after a big drop to see where the stock settles before buying but I broke my rule again. I traded Twitter couple of times this year first buying in the $19, $17, and bunch in the $15. I sold it on the way back up to $20 in the $19 for decent profit. So I'm trying my luck again at $15. I'm not as optimistic on this new drop and think it's dead money. But I also don't see big downside risk from here. It's not a big position so I won't lose sleep over it.

 

[Charmonium]

@ponyo - well whatever you do, best of luck

Anyone listening to the post mortem on the fed's policy announcement? 'Reading the tea leaves' doesn't even cover it. It makes the prediction of a psychic seem almost factual by comparison. It's pretty funny to hear all of the verbal gymnastics.

Bottom line, 50-50 shot of a hike in June. Decreasing probability as we approach the election. So Sept is probably out.

 

[Imp]

Twitter has been trying to sell advertisers on the 500M people it says arenn't signed up for the service but who nevertheless, read tweets to keep up to date for certain purposes.

Count me in as one of those 500 M. Best place to stalk celebrities along with Instagram. I still don't understand how Twitter makes money... There are sponsored posts, but I never click on them. Same as Reddit.

Anyone listening to the post mortem on the fed's policy announcement? 'Reading the tea leaves' doesn't even cover it. It makes the prediction of a psychic seem almost factual by comparison. It's pretty funny to hear all of the verbal gymnastics.

Have not read anything yet but heard there was no hike. Lulz, looking more and more like a one and done. But hey, EU and Australia hit deflation in the past year-ish so great news. That leaves Canada and the US, and Canada exports 75% to US so where they go, we go.

Estimated Q1 GDP is like 0.5% to 1.0%. The UK announced theirs earlier today: +0.4%. Good times ahead. S&P 500 is up today.

Edit: Forgot, oil is up! Come on, 10% more and a ton of shale wells start up again. Good luck storing that shit with every close to capacity and demand weakening with the shit global economy.

 

[Charmonium]

I think the fed has to hike and will do it in July. If they don't do at least one more hike this year, they lose some credibility and it's not going to be as easy to jawbone the markets. But they can't hike too close to the election. So if it's not June-July, then it will be November or December.

They removed the 'global risk' language from their statment today which was saying that they were concerned about global issues in making their decision (this is from the March statement). That language is gone so this statement is seen as being much more hawkish.

Oh, and don't forget brexit. That vote is late June so July looks like the sweet spot assuming we don't get a deterioration of domestic or global conditions.

 

[Imp]

Schedule of FOMC meetings:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Next one is middle of June, then end of July... Maybe they'll hike it, but if they do, markets will likely tank. I think they lost credibility a long time ago.

Brexit is June 23. Doubt they'll vote for it with their economy already weak.

 

[Artdeco]

I loaded up on FB, half is sold through covered calls, kept the other 1/2. Sweet day

 

[FelixDeCat]

seriously tho, who uses FB?

 

[Imp]

^Apparently, 1.5 billion people, 1.0 billion solid daily or something...

How many of them are bots, alternate accounts? I had two, then I closed them.

 

[Charmonium]

Yeah, it's hard to imagine but about 1B people per day check facespace. I have to admit, I got yet another account recently to keep up with some local events. I'd had several other accounts in the past that have long since gone dormant and I suspect that's what will happen to this one too. Although IDK. Right now it's proving pretty useful.

Thanks for the calendar by the way. Didn't realize the Nov. FOMC meeting was before the erection, I mean election.

 

[Artdeco]

seriously tho, who uses FB?

All of my elderly relatives.

 

[FelixDeCat]

All of my elderly relatives.

Get off my lawn! Im an elderly relative with only FB page that I haven't actively used since 2010.