***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[holden j caufield]

I was talking about AMD not too long ago and sold 8000 shares of it around the 2.82 mark.

After hours, 1.5 mill shares traded it's up 25% closed at 2.62 trading around 3.25 before their earnings call. INTC reported pretty bad earnings, I don't get it. Mostly I'm kicking myself for selling too early.

 

[Charmonium]

I was talking about AMD not too long ago and sold 8000 shares of it around the 2.82 mark.

After hours, 1.5 mill shares traded it's up 25% closed at 2.62 trading around 3.25 before their earnings call. INTC reported pretty bad earnings, I don't get it. Mostly I'm kicking myself for selling too early.

Hasn't AMD been making more of an effort in the lower margin markets like cell phones? That could be one reason. INTC still owns the server market so you have to wonder, if they're not doing well, what does that say about the growth of cloud computing.

On a side note, they cut their R&D by more than a billion dollars I think. Plus they're laying off 12k employees.

 

[rcpratt]

Utilities just getting crushed the past few days (-5%). Guess this is what's to come if rates are to rise.

 

[FelixDeCat]

04/21/2016 09:31:54...Sold 2 CHK Jan 20 2017 $8.0 Put @ $3....$588.44 / $1000 = 58%

 

[Imp]

A developer in Canada, think it's residential, filed for something something...

The company has filed for the restructuring under the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act and is seeking court approval to sell assets...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...uilder-urbancorp-files-for-debt-restructuring

Meanwhile, house prices in Vancouver and Toronto probably went up.

 

[FelixDeCat]

...and it other news Sun Edison *finally* filed for Chapter 11...


Anyone want to buy solar assets for cheap? Anyone?

 

[KB]

Utilities just getting crushed the past few days (-5%). Guess this is what's to come if rates are to rise.

This is just profit taking. The Utilities sector has been the best performer this year up to this point. No one yet knows when or if rates will rise.

 

[JEDI]

This is just profit taking. The Utilities sector has been the best performer this year up to this point. No one yet knows when or if rates will rise.

why are utils up so much?

 

[Udgnim]

why are utils up so much?

Fed decides to not raise interest rates so bonds remain an unattractive investment for yield

market responds by finding yield elsewhere in strong dividend producing equities (O, T, etc)

 

[Imp]

Fed decides to not raise interest rates so bonds remain an unattractive investment for yield

market responds by finding yield elsewhere in strong dividend producing equities (O, T, etc)

Probably right, but I think the P/E of the S&P 500 is around 23 using GAAP earnings. Based on GDP, the market is also supposedly overvalued.

Word is also that companies are issuing bonds due to the cheap Fed rate and using that money to buy back stocks to further prop up the market.

Looks like a house of cards. Within two months, there's the Brexit vote and a potential Fed rate hike -- doubtful in April, slightly less doubtful in June. Either could bring it down.

 

[Imp]

Hold onto your butts... China decided that stock and housing bubbles weren't enough, everyone appears to have now rushed into commodities. I'm giving it another month or two?

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-commodities-futures-idUSKCN0XJ0TP

The benchmark rebar futures contract saw approximately 303 billion yuan ($47 billion) in trade value by the Thursday close, based on a record 111.8 million tonnes changing hands and calculating based on the settlement price of 2,708 yuan per tonne.

That compares to around 209 billion yuan worth of volume on the Shanghai Stock Exchange the same day.

Didn't even know rebar was a commodity. Thought it fell under steel/iron. I am awared.

 

[Imp]

China's bond market may be popping with defaults up, yield up. Their stock market tanked last June-ish, maybe this June will be as interesting...

Two other SOEs have since missed bond payments while a third has had trading of its notes suspended, according to ratings agency Fitch.

These incidents were on top of a number of onshore corporate bond defaults by private-sector firms this year, the ratings agency said.

http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-k...velopers-face-tough-sell-raising-funds-recent

 

[Charmonium]

I'd heard that corp debt in China might be a problem but if they let state owned entities default, that's just stupid not to mention suicide. It's hard enough to have a financial crisis and maintain any kind of faith in the system when you're willing to bail out SOE's. I wouldn't want to face a situation where those sorts of institutions are folding up shop.

I have very little doubt that they'll print their way out of this like any respectable robber-baron controlled govt. But you never know. There's always the chance that they could faceplant.

 

[StrangerGuy]

I'd heard that corp debt in China might be a problem but if they let state owned entities default, that's just stupid not to mention suicide. It's hard enough to have a financial crisis and maintain any kind of faith in the system when you're willing to bail out SOE's. I wouldn't want to face a situation where those sorts of institutions are folding up shop.

I have very little doubt that they'll print their way out of this like any respectable robber-baron controlled govt. But you never know. There's always the chance that they could faceplant.

I have seen the future, and it's bailouts all the way down.

 

[Imp]

China/Chinese are way ahead of you... A lot of that credit is re-inflating their housing bubble.

"The housing market is on fire," said Wei Yao, from Societe Generale. "In the first quarter, increases in total credit exploded to 7.5 trilion yuan, up 58pc year-on-year. There is no bigger policy lever than this kind of credit injection."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...esh-boom-nears-peak-just-as-amateurs-pile-in/

 

[FelixDeCat]

$19 silver? Wow!

When - is of course the question.

 

[Charmonium]

I think we're going to get a summer rate hike. Maybe not June but probably not September either. My guess is that they'll do it before either party's conventions are concluded. That gives them some camouflage from the media attention that they would normally get.

A rate hike could have a paradoxical effect by increasing the spread between short and long term rates which is hurting banks and lending. Although normally you would expect a rate hike to reduce lending I don't think the normal rules apply in the current situation.

 

[Charmonium]

Saudis will sell 5% of Aramco which will be valued at >$2T, so >$200B >$100B (i really need to learn to do simple math).

 

[Imp]

So, umm, Bank of Japan appears to be buying a lot of assets. Isn't this just QE?

..., the monetary authority’s exchange-traded fund purchases have made it a top 10 shareholder in about 90 percent of the Nikkei 225 Stock Average, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg from public data.

Video in the link:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...is-quietly-buying-up-huge-stakes-in-japan-inc

Fed meeting starts tomorrow, Wednesday should be an announcement. No shit they won't raise it... I expect the same in June. "Fundamentals," yo.

 

[sm625]

So, umm, Bank of Japan appears to be buying a lot of assets. Isn't this just QE?

Japan central bank has gone full retard. Soon they will own their entire stock market and bond market. Expect the US to follow suit eventually, whether it is legal or not.

 

[Charmonium]

Buying securities requires the central bank to create new money and use that to make the purchases. At least that's how it works when they are trying to influence the money supply. On the flip side, when they sell, the money they get goes back into the void from which they conjured it in the first place.

 

[Kwatt]

Buying securities requires the central bank to create new money and use that to make the purchases. At least that's how it works when they are trying to influence the money supply. On the flip side, when they sell, the money they get goes back into the void from which they conjured it in the first place.

They are creating new debt on an account that does not exist.

In they keep going they will own every stock,bond and mortgage. And we will have to pay off the debt with our labours for letting them take it.

.

 

[holden j caufield]

$19 silver? Wow!

When - is of course the question.

what ETF do I buy for silver.

 

[Imp]

Go-go oil. API report for last week, apparently, shows draws for oil, gasoline, and distillates. Come on, let's make it to $50 so this can happen:

Drilled, uncompleted wells could return 500,000 barrels a day back to the market, according to Richard Westerdale, a director at the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Energy Resources.

...

Oil has rebounded amid speculation a global glut will ease after a decline in U.S. production this year trimmed more than 280,000 barrels a day of supply.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nches-higher-as-fracklog-awaits-price-trigger

Let's do it like we did last summer! Except with a weaker global economy and Iran back online.

 

[holden j caufield]

TWTR down a good amount after hours I figure $15.6 is a pretty good price for this?