***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

Let's see what Janet has in store next week. Obviously no hike, maybe she'll talk the dollar down further or just say there won't be anymore hikes. That'll prop the market up good. As long as the market goes up...


Edit:
No problem here. Absolutely nothing to see.

So far this year, 46 companies have defaulted on their debt, the highest level since 2009, according to S&P Ratings Services.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money...lts-hit-highest-level-since-09-bust/83003002/

Or here... U.S. Factory output down:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...tput-in-u-s-falls-by-most-since-february-2015

Definitely not here... U.S. Housing starts down:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-housing-starts-fell-8-8-in-february-1461069249

Rally on, Garth.

 

[Imp]

Boom. Kuwait oil strike is over (VIDEO ALERT):
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...kers-strike-over-pay-dispute-enters-third-day

So, what's the fucking excuse for the rally now?

Surprise me. Oil's going to keep rallying for some other bullshit reason, let's see what bullshit they come up with next.

And let's keep rallying the CAD that's dependent on the U.S. economy that's slowing and where 60% or more of exports go. We can keep trading each other houses and selling our cheap commodities to China that's also slowing.

Edit: Oh, I'm sorry, 75% of Canada's exports go to the U.S.

http://www.edc.ca/EN/Country-Info/Pages/United-States.aspx

 

[Charmonium]

If you're still long the dollar and you have the stomach for it, I think your faith will eventually be rewarded. That's not to say that things will better any time soon and that there might not be some significant downside left to go.

But ultimately, the fed has to get shit off of it's balance sheet. That's either going to happen through attrition by not replacing maturing securities or by outright sales including reverse repos. When that happens, it's going to support the value of the dollar. And eventually, it HAS to happen.

Of course as the old saying goes, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

 

[ponyo]

Boom. Kuwait oil strike is over (VIDEO ALERT):
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...kers-strike-over-pay-dispute-enters-third-day

So, what's the fucking excuse for the rally now?

Surprise me. Oil's going to keep rallying for some other bullshit reason, let's see what bullshit they come up with next.

And let's keep rallying the CAD that's dependent on the U.S. economy that's slowing and where 60% or more of exports go. We can keep trading each other houses and selling our cheap commodities to China that's also slowing.

Edit: Oh, I'm sorry, 75% of Canada's exports go to the U.S.

http://www.edc.ca/EN/Country-Info/Pages/United-States.aspx

Reactions to the news is often more important than the news itself. Pretty much all news are just noise. You can have an opinion but it's important to respect the price action. If it's not going down on bad news and negative news are being ignored, price is going up. Don't take it personal.

Silver popped above $17 today, finally breaking the multi-year downtrend. I bought a bunch late last year in the high $13s-$15 range but when you see a move up, you always wish you bought more. Same for gold and platinum. I have lot of cash right now so I plan on adding silver on any significant pullback.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Reactions to the news is often more important than the news itself. Pretty much all news are just noise. You can have an opinion but it's important to respect the price action. If it's not going down on bad news and negative news are being ignored, price is going up. Don't take it personal.

Silver popped above $17 today, finally breaking the multi-year downtrend. I bought a bunch late last year in the high $13s-$15 range but when you see a move up, you always wish you bought more. Same for gold and platinum. I have lot of cash right now so I plan on adding silver on any significant pullback.

Silver is on a rampage!!!! Glad I bought some Silver Eagles back in February. And even with all the recent gains its only $17 an ounce ... no where near its $50 high of 2011.

It is tempting to buy USLV (3x Ultra Long Silver) or NUGT (Gold 3x). NUGT is very expensive though at nearly $90 a share. You could have bought a little over two weeks ago for $52!!

After hours quote for silver.... $17.17, +0.20 cents or +1.20%. IF thats the open, USLV will be up 3% in the morning. Careful with 3x levered ETFs though. They are traps for the greedy! ()

 

[Imp]

This has gotta be normal and not a sign of anything... Think it's talking about 2016 Q1.

Hong Kong home sales dropped 39 per cent in the first quarter compared with the previous three months,

http://www.scmp.com/business/articl...ace-tough-times-home-sales-drop-39-cent-first

 

[ponyo]

Silver is on a rampage!!!! Glad I bought some Silver Eagles back in February. And even with all the recent gains its only $17 an ounce ... no where near its $50 high of 2011.

It is tempting to buy USLV (3x Ultra Long Silver) or NUGT (Gold 3x). NUGT is very expensive though at nearly $90 a share. You could have bought a little over two weeks ago for $52!!

After hours quote for silver.... $17.17, +0.20 cents or +1.20%. IF thats the open, USLV will be up 3% in the morning. Careful with 3x levered ETFs though. They are traps for the greedy! ()

I buy physical and take delivery. Not that paper bullshit with counter party risk. I do occasionally short SLV and GLD as a hedge against my physical but I don't mess with leveraged 2x or 3x stuff. If I profit from SLV and GLD short, I roll that into actual physical gold and silver.

Silver is up 24% for 2016.

 

[Miramonti]

I buy physical and take delivery. Not that paper bullshit with counter party risk. I do occasionally short SLV and GLD as a hedge against my physical but I don't mess with leveraged 2x or 3x stuff. If I profit from SLV and GLD short, I roll that into actual physical gold and silver.

Silver is up 24% for 2016.

Wouldn't you have an additional charge to liquidate the physical, or do you just plan to acquire them for the long haul?

 

[Charmonium]

The last time the gold/silver ratio was this high in 2008, it preceded a 6 month drop in silver which was only offset by the financial crisis.

https://www.kitco.com/Gold_Silver_Ratio_Charts/gold-silver-ratio-charts.html

I guess you could look at that being a precursor to another crisis but I don't know. What I heard was that as shit gets real, people tend to move from silver to gold. But when times are better, silver is favored.

 

[JEDI]

ansd im out of shorting oil.
made a couple hundred $.
was up 4 figures at one point.
doh!

 

[herm0016]

by the talk of the rig counts earlier, i think we need a little education.

the rig count is the number of drilling rigs currently drilling new wells. this really has nothing to do with production, its a way to see what the future holds. wells can be left in inventory and never completed for years. drilling costs are very cheap right now and lots of companies are drilling wells for inventory. these wells are completed one at a time to keep their production contracts filled.

wells in inventory can either be completed or not (completed means perforated and fracked, this happens independent from and without the drilling rig on location)

production is going down, and will continue to go down as contracts are filled and not renewed.

I work in the oil well service industry. certain basins are still busy, the nio, Oklahoma and tx are still doing ok, but nobody is making any money because of huge pricing pressure from the operators and the small service companies that can operate with much lower overhead than the big guns. hal/slb/baker/cased hole solutions/etc.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Chesapeake knocking on the door of a new high of $6.50! Is $7 around the corner?

Still haven't shorted those puts yet as previously mentioned.

Have to wait four damn business days for the money to clear to trade "non-marginable" securities (stock options, etc) on ACH transfers. In meantime Ive been missing out.

The only thing that concerns me however is CHK's very large natural gas holdings. Natural has is going nowhere to lower - fast!

 

[FelixDeCat]

I also wanted to buy Oasis Petroleum on Monday at $7.89 but declined. It is now $9.50. OAS reserves are almost all oil.

 

[ponyo]

Wouldn't you have an additional charge to liquidate the physical, or do you just plan to acquire them for the long haul?

There's big premium for buying and lost of premium when selling coins and bars. That's huge negative opting for physical metals. That and storage costs. Gold and platinum don't take up much room but silver is real pain in the butt to store since it's cheap, heavy, and takes up so much room. Paper is definitely the way to go if you care about transaction costs, liquidity, and storage. But even with all the negatives, I want to own the physical and not the paper. PMs are sort of a new hobby for me and I can't physically touch paper positions. I enjoy coin design and can appreciate the work that goes into making various coins and bars.

 

[Imp]

by the talk of the rig counts earlier, i think we need a little education.

the rig count is the number of drilling rigs currently drilling new wells. this really has nothing to do with production, its a way to see what the future holds. wells can be left in inventory and never completed for years. drilling costs are very cheap right now and lots of companies are drilling wells for inventory. these wells are completed one at a time to keep their production contracts filled.

wells in inventory can either be completed or not (completed means perforated and fracked, this happens independent from and without the drilling rig on location)

Thank you very much for clearing that up!


On another note: oh look, oil is up. I'm surprised.

 

[Charmonium]

Yes. Great explanation. Thank you :thumbsup:

 

[Imp]

Oh look, property prices went down in Sydney and a bunch of other Australian cities.

VIDEO alert:
http://www.domain.com.au/news/it-mi...f-things-it-doesnt-mean-much-20160420-goatlw/

That Domain site appears to be part of the real-estate industry so if they're saying it...


Edit: And in America, pension fund problems...

More than a quarter of a million active and retired truckers and their families could soon see their pension benefits severely cut...

That imbalance left the fund paying out $3.46 in pension benefits for every $1 it received from employers.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...n-funds-could-soon-cut-benefits-for-retirees/

 

[brianmanahan]

someone should do a backtest to measure the validity of imp posts as a signal

 

[Miramonti]

There's big premium for buying and lost of premium when selling coins and bars. That's huge negative opting for physical metals. That and storage costs. Gold and platinum don't take up much room but silver is real pain in the butt to store since it's cheap, heavy, and takes up so much room. Paper is definitely the way to go if you care about transaction costs, liquidity, and storage. But even with all the negatives, I want to own the physical and not the paper. PMs are sort of a new hobby for me and I can't physically touch paper positions. I enjoy coin design and can appreciate the work that goes into making various coins and bars.

I just recently acquired my first gold coin, a '94 Canadian dollar, 9999, and I can understand the intrigue. It's a beautiful coin and metal, and just handling it, feeling it's weight is practically therapeutic lol.

 

[JEDI]

I just recently acquired my first gold coin, a '94 Canadian dollar, 9999, and I can understand the intrigue. It's a beautiful coin and metal, and just handling it, feeling it's weight is practically therapeutic lol.

have u weighed it yet?
to make sure no one shaved off some gold b4 selling it to you

 

[brianmanahan]

I just recently acquired my first gold coin, a '94 Canadian dollar, 9999, and I can understand the intrigue. It's a beautiful coin and metal, and just handling it, feeling it's weight is practically therapeutic lol.

i still have yet to buy a modern gold coin

my newest one is from 1825 and my oldest is about 630 BC

 

[Charmonium]

I just recently acquired my first gold coin, a '94 Canadian dollar, 9999, and I can understand the intrigue. It's a beautiful coin and metal, and just handling it, feeling it's weight is practically therapeutic lol.

If you really want to see a beautiful gold coin, take a look at some of the modern proof coins. Usually, the background has a bright, reflective finish comparable to a mirror. It's often described as a mirror finish.

There are also reverse proof coins where it's the forground that is repeatedly stamped to get a similar finish. Reverse proofs don't look as dramatic since the foreground features generally have some sort of topology that breaks up the reflective surface. But they tend to be less common. I think the US Mint has only ever produced one or two like that.

Finally, proofs tend to have fairly limited mintage numbers. Sometimes the non-proof bullion coins will too but the proofs are almost always limited mintage. I'm talking mainly about the US Mint here. Other producers may or may not follow their lead. You'd need to check.

 

[ponyo]

I just recently acquired my first gold coin, a '94 Canadian dollar, 9999, and I can understand the intrigue. It's a beautiful coin and metal, and just handling it, feeling it's weight is practically therapeutic lol.

I own and like gold Maple but my favorite Canadian gold is the Howling Wolf. It's .99999 pure and the detail on the wolf is amazing. I don't care for the assay card since that takes up storage space.

 

[Miramonti]

i still have yet to buy a modern gold coin

my newest one is from 1825 and my oldest is about 630 BC

I'd be nervous to have them around, yet would hate to park them somewhere secure and out of reach and out of sight of showing off.

have u weighed it yet?
to make sure no one shaved off some gold b4 selling it to you

Perfect, at least to the extend of my imperfect chinese 1/100th gram scale. There is a small scratch, but it was purchased from the mint(?) in Canada and only our family has touched it.

If you really want to see a beautiful gold coin, take a look at some of the modern proof coins. Usually, the background has a bright, reflective finish comparable to a mirror. It's often described as a mirror finish.

There are also reverse proof coins where it's the foreground that is repeatedly stamped to get a similar finish. Reverse proofs don't look as dramatic since the foreground features generally have some sort of topology that breaks up the reflective surface. But they tend to be less common. I think the US Mint has only ever produced one or two like that.

Finally, proofs tend to have fairly limited mintage numbers. Sometimes the non-proof bullion coins will too but the proofs are almost always limited mintage. I'm talking mainly about the US Mint here. Other producers may or may not follow their lead. You'd need to check.

Interesting. I like to keep closed doors closed, but I think it would be fun to hit up a local coin show and see some fascinating coins and histories.

 

[Charmonium]

I don't remember what, specifically, was said but since I remember som talk about Sun edison (SUNE) i figured this might be of interest. They declared bankuptcy today.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Corpor...iling+for+Chapter+11+Bankruptcy/11527179.html